The revolution is dead, long live the demolition: Education and labor market consequences of student riots

Ahmet Ozturk; Semih Tumen

doi:10.2478/izajole-2023-0004

Figures & Tables

Number of terrorist attacks in Turkey (1970–1985).Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2016. Global Terrorism Database [GTD from 1970 to 1991]. Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/Gtd.

New enrollments in all higher-education institutions in Turkey (1965–1990).Source: Authors’ calculations based on National Education Statistics compiled by and Academic Year Higher Education Statistics compiled by OSYM.

Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (men).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (women).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of high school graduation.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of graduation from elementary/primary school.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of wage employment.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a postsecondary degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only post-secondary degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for men with at least a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 with at least a high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS. The red lines indicate the average log hourly wages for exposed and non-exposed individuals for the corresponding educational level.

Actual and counterfactual density of log wages for male individuals in the 40–45 age group.The sample includes male wage earners of age 40–51. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being in the labor force.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being formally employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Fuzzy RDD estimates of the returns to college

	Dependent variable: Log hourly wage

	[1]	[2]	[3]
Treatment	0.5716*** (0.0935)	0.5629** (0.2425)	0.6492* (0.3777)
F-statistic (discontinuity)	140.13	18.63	8.24

Region of residence	Yes	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	Yes	Yes	Yes
# of observations	6,309	6,309	6,309
Polynomial degree	–	linear	quadratic

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with adjusted missing wages

	Dependent variable: Log hourly wage

	With missing values	Adjusted for missing values
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS	0.5025*** (0.0311)	0.5037*** (0.0310)
2SLS	0.5716*** (0.0935)	0.5744*** (0.0935)
F-statistic (first stage)	140.13	139.44

Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS	0.5588*** (0.0841)	0.5601*** (0.0837)
LIML	0.5605*** (0.0865)	0.5618*** (0.0861)
F-statistic (first stage)	25.15	25.04
p-value Hansen's test	0.80	0.80

Region of residence	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	Yes	Yes
# of observations	6,309	6,309

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education

	Dependent variable: Post-secondary degree==1; Otherwise==0

	Total		Men		Women

	[1]	[2]	[1]	[2]	[1]	[2]
Age 40–45	−0.0587*** (0.0075)	−0.0084** (0.0034)	−0.0664*** (0.0114)	−0.0102 (0.0065)	−0.0147 (0.0247)	−0.0031 (0.0053)
# of obs.	18,730	18,852	15,827	12,798	2,903	6,054
R²	0.0476	0.0570	0.0298	0.0474	0.0780	0.1077

Difference in the probability of graduation between the 40–45 and 46–51 age groups

	Dependent variable

	Post-secondary	High school	Primary/Elementary

	Degree==1	Degree==1	Degree==1

	Otherwise==0	Otherwise==0	Otherwise==0

	[1]	[2]	[3]
Age 40–45	−0.0148*** (0.0051)	0.0450*** (0.0027)	0.0325*** (0.0092)
# of obs.	74,903	74,903	74,903
R²	0.0364	0.0375	0.0524

Descriptive statistics for individuals of age 34–51

Variables	Mean
Primary or elementary sch. grad. rate	0.63
High sch. grad. rate	0.14
Post-secondary sch. grad. rate	0.08
Years of schooling	6.36
Labor force participation	0.58
Employment rate	0.54
Sample size	115,410

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with different samples

	Dependent variable: Log hourly wage

	40–45	41–45	42–45	43–45

	46–51	47–51	47–50	47–49

	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS	0.5025*** (0.0311)	0.5145*** (0.0333)	0.5152*** (0.0367)	0.5105*** (0.0342)
2SLS	0.5716*** (0.0935)	0.5148*** (0.0690)	0.4698*** (0.0802)	0.4855*** (0.1016)
F-statistic (first stage)	140.13	181.59	144.01	94.10

Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS	0.5588*** (0.0841)	0.5078*** (0.0716)	0.4774*** (0.0827)	0.5039*** (0.1032)
LIML	0.5605*** (0.0865)	0.5076*** (0.0731)	0.4767*** (0.0840)	0.5037*** (0.1053)
F-statistic (first stage)	25.15	37.43	36.65	31.97
p-value Hansen's test	0.80	0.72	0.71	0.61

Region of residence	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
# of observations	6,309	5,042	4,093	3,088

Classification of occupations and their percentages in age groups

ISCO-88 codes	Classification	Percentage in age group

		34–39	40–45	46–51
12, 21, 22, 23, 24	Corp. managers and professionals (1.53<log wage<2.07)	13.73	12.00	18.68
31, 32, 33, 34, 41, 42	Technicians, assoc. professionals & clerks (1.29<log wage<1.45)	15.12	17.39	16.66
11, 13, 51, 72, 81	Average wage earners (0.92<log wage<1.10)	20.32	20.72	18.40
71, 73, 82, 83, 91	Between min. wage & av. wage (0.69<log wage<0.87)	33.29	34.37	31.28
52, 61, 62, 74, 92, 93	Approx. less than min. wage (log wage<0.61)	17.54	15.52	14.98

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college

	Dependent variable: Log hourly wage

	[1]	[2]	[3]
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS	0.5022*** (0.0320)	0.5062*** (0.0304)	0.5025*** (0.0311)
2SLS	0.5795*** (0.0965)	0.5790*** (0.0935)	0.5716*** (0.0935)
F-statistic (first stage)	139.54	142.56	140.13

Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS	0.5688*** (0.0887)	0.5659*** (0.0855)	0.5588*** (0.0841)
LIML	0.5704*** (0.0908)	0.5676*** (0.0880)	0.5605*** (0.0865)
F-statistic (first stage)	25.01	25.51	25.15

p-value Hansen's test	0.87	0.80	0.80
Region of residence	No	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	No	No	Yes
# of observations	6,309	6,309	6,309

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education and wage

	Dependent variable

	Post-secondary degree			Log hourly wage

	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]	[5]	[6]
Instrument (z_i)	−0.1507*** (0.0214)	−0.1518*** (0.0211)	−0.1502*** (0.0207)	−0.0873*** (0.0160)	−0.0879*** (0.0159)	−0.0859*** (0.0154)
Region of residence	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
# of observations	6,309	6,309	6,309	6,309	6,309	6,309

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college using more HLFS waves

	Dependent variable: Log hourly wage

	2005	2005–2008
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS	0.5025*** (0.0311)	0.5380*** (0.0305)
2SLS	0.5716*** (0.0935)	0.5644*** (0.0801)
F-statistic (first stage)	140.13	301.03

Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS	0.5588*** (0.0841)	0.5950*** (0.0883)
LIML	0.5605*** (0.0865)	0.5957*** (0.0895)
F-statistic (first stage)	25.15	55.62
p-value Hansen's test	0.80	0.85

Region of residence	Yes	Yes
Urban/rural status	Yes	Yes
# of observations	6,309	21,717

Average hours worked in the main bob by educational attainment in the sample of wage earners in Turkey

Educational attainment	# of observations	Mean
No schooling	3,305	55.3
Primary school (5 years)	26,065	55.5
Elementary school (8 years)	11,046	54.9
High school	19,498	51.8
Post-secondary degree	13,396	44.1

Comparisons of age groups for male wage earners

	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]	[5]
Age 34–39	10,774	1.023	8.363	0.166	0.228
Age 40–45	10,105	1.002	8.198	0.142	0.243
Age 46–51	5,722	1.037	8.475	0.211	0.195

The revolution is dead, long live the demolition: Education and labor market consequences of student riots

Figures & Tables

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Fuzzy RDD estimates of the returns to college

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with adjusted missing wages

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education

Difference in the probability of graduation between the 40–45 and 46–51 age groups

Descriptive statistics for individuals of age 34–51

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with different samples

Classification of occupations and their percentages in age groups

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education and wage

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college using more HLFS waves

Average hours worked in the main bob by educational attainment in the sample of wage earners in Turkey

Comparisons of age groups for male wage earners

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