Young adult substance use following involuntary job loss

Nicholas A. Jolly; Gwendolyn Davis

doi:10.2478/izajole-2023-0003

Figures & Tables

Displacement's Effect on Labor Market Outcomes.

Event History Analysis – Labor Market Outcomes.

Heterogeneity by Race

Panel A: Labor Market Outcomes

	Log Earnings	Real Earnings	Employed

Non-White	−0.504 (0.334)	−6,288.925^*** (1,392.415)	−0.145^*** (0.052)
White	−0.050 (0.406)	546.915 (2510.808)	−0.125^** (0.058)
R²	0.18	0.17	0.09
N	6,501	8,416	8,416
# Individuals	2,296	2,461	2,461
Sig. Different	No	5%	No

Panel B: Substance Use at Extensive Margin

	Currently Smokes	Currently Drinks	Ever Used Marijuana	Ever Used Other Drugs	Ever Used Pain Relievers/Narcotics

Non-White	0.038 (0.030)	0.048 (0.041)	−0.049 (0.040)	−0.018 (0.031)	−0.082 (0.085)
White	−0.060 (0.037)	0.048 (0.047)	−0.034 (0.041)	−0.041 (0.038)	0.060 (0.129)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.02	0.06
N	8,398	8,390	8,369	8,369	3,906
# Individuals	2,461	2,461	2,461	2,461	1,778
Sig. Different	5%	No	No	No	No

Panel C: Substance Use at Intensive Margin

	# Cigarettes Smoked Per Day	Drinks Several Times per Month	# Drinks per Session	# Times Used Marijuana in Past 12 Months	# Times Used Pain Relievers Past 12 Months

Non-White	−0.013 (1.351)	−0.012 (0.067)	0.468 (0.325)	5.123^** (2.483)	−5.342 (4.714)
White	0.223 (1.032)	−0.039 (0.063)	−0.294 (0.318)	−2.184 (1.988)	−5.776^** (2.575)
R²	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.04
N	1,152	5,359	5,315	3,988	1,221
# Individuals	530	2,009	2,002	1,579	860
Sig. Different	No	No	10%	5%	No

Heterogeneity - Relative Differences

	# Cigarettes	# Drinks	Marijuana	Pain Relievers
Panel A: Gender
Men	−0.058 (0.206)	0.306^*** (0.100)	0.431 (0.349)	−0.089 (0.638)
Women	−0.076 (0.145)	0.106^* (0.062)	0.332 (0.507)	−0.645 (0.475)
R²	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.06
N	1,263	4,730	2,773	318
# Individuals	458	1,496	896	211
Sig. Different	No	10%	No	No

Panel B: Race
Non-White	−0.064 (0.147)	0.296^*** (0.081)	0.154 (0.311)	−0.285 (0.423)
White	−0.063 (0.231)	0.117 (0.091)	0.735 (0.559)	−0.777 (0.718)
R²	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.06
N	1,259	4,726	2,773	318
# Individuals	457	1,495	896	211
Sig. Different	No	No	No	No

Panel C: Living Arrangements
With Others	0.104 (0.220)	0.212^*** (0.071)	0.282 (0.365)	−0.422^* (0.254)
On Own	−0.230 (0.152)	0.216^** (0.104)	0.502 (0.461)	−0.478 (0.780)
R²	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.06
N	1,263	4,730	2,773	318
# Individuals	458	1,496	896	211
Sig. Different	No	No	No	No

The Effect of Substance Use on Employment

	Smoking	Drinking	Marijuana	Other Drugs	Pain Reliever
Panel A: Non-users in t – 2 & Users in t = 0
After	−0.194^** (0.084)	−0.088^** (0.043)	−0.146^** (0.057)	−0.118^* (0.061)	−0.171 (0.106)
R²	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02
N	7,962	8,325	8,100	8,056	3,809
# Individuals	2,345	2,443	2,376	2,370	1,729

Panel B: Non-users in t – 2 & t = 0
After	−0.111^*** (0.024)	−0.176^*** (0.040)	−0.128^*** (0.031)	−0.130^*** (0.024)	−0.145^** (0.057)
R²	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02
N	9,857	8,512	8,869	9,855	4,031
# Individuals	2,806	2,474	2,557	2,808	1,815

Non-Random Attrition

	Employed	Current Smoke	Current Drink	Marijuana	Other Drug	Pain Reliever
Attrite	0.006 (0.010)	0.008 (0.016)	−0.015 (0.012)	0.002 (0.013)	0.005 (0.014)	0.000 (0.000)
R²	0.68	0.68	0.69	0.69	0.69	1.00
N	5,725	5,718	5,716	5,707	5,707	884
# Individuals	1,417	1,417	1,417	1,417	1,417	573

Heterogeneity by Living Arrangements

Panel A: Labor Market Outcomes

	Log Earnings	Real Earnings	Employed

With Others	−0.838^** (0.338)	−5,882.592^*** (1,195.762)	−0.127^*** (0.047)
On Own	0.669^* (0.385)	201.614 (2794.817)	−0.153^** (0.069)
R²	0.18	0.17	0.09
N	6,505	8,422	8,422
# Individuals	2,297	2,463	2,463
Sig. Different	1%	5%	No

Panel B: Substance Use at Extensive Margin

	Currently Smokes	Currently Drinks	Ever Used Marijuana	Ever Used Other Drugs	Ever Used Pain Relievers/Narcotics

With Others	0.004 (0.028)	0.053 (0.040)	−0.072^** (0.034)	0.003 (0.030)	0.068 (0.101)
On Own	−0.001 (0.042)	0.036 (0.049)	0.012 (0.054)	−0.067^* (0.040)	−0.161^* (0.097)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.02	0.06
N	8,403	8,395	8,374	8,374	3,907
# Individuals	2,463	2,463	2,463	2,463	1,779
Sig. Different	No	No	No	No	10%

Panel C: Substance Use at Intensive Margin

	# Cigarettes Smoked Per Day	Drinks Several Times per Month	# Drinks per Session	# Times Used Marijuana in Past 12 Months	# Times Used Pain Relievers Past 12 Months

With Others	0.879 (1.199)	−0.067 (0.059)	0.084 (0.268)	1.696 (2.148)	−0.860 (1.539)
On Own	−1.190 (0.795)	0.041 (0.068)	0.225 (0.431)	1.901 (2.649)	−13.398^** (5.556)
R²	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.05
N	1,156	5,363	5,319	3,991	1,221
# Individuals	531	2,010	2,003	1,580	860
Sig. Different	No	No	No	No	5%

Descriptive Statistics (means) of Selected Variables

	Non-Displaced (matched)	Displaced (matched)
Total Earnings^a,b	$3,094.56	$2,214.53
Hours Worked^b	18.43	21.14
Employed	54.13%	55.35%
Age	18.93	18.78
Female	53.59%	50.20%
White^c	35.86%	36.40%
Responsible for Own Household	15.02%	14.88%
Education
< High School	13.86%	13.69%
High School Degree/GED	23.41%	29.700%
Some College/Associates Degree	61.14%	56.38%
Bachelor's Degree	1.36%	0.23%
Master's Degree	0.23%	-
Currently Smoke	18.94%	21.65%
Number Cigarettes/Day	8.49	8.72
Currently Drink Alcohol	44.25%	46.55%
Drink at Least Several Times/Month	50.15%	50.29%
Number Drinks/Session	3.71	3.64
Ever Used Marijuana	43.55%	46.07%
Number of Uses of Marijuana previous 12 Months^d	11.82	14.4
Ever Used Amphetamines, Cocaine, Barbiturates, or Tranquilizers	16.42%	15.86%
Ever Used Pain Relievers/Narcotics	27.93%	34.43%
Number of Uses of Pain Relievers/Narcotics previous	9.39	6.17
12 Months^d
Total Number of Individuals	739	739

Displacement's Effect on Labor Market Outcomes

	Earnings	Log Earnings	Employed
After	−1,991.898^*** (663.265)	−0.647^*** (0.138)	−0.112^*** (0.020)
R²	0.20	0.15	0.08
N	6,043	4,760	6,043
# Individuals	1,307	1,263	1,307

Displacement's Effect on Living Arrangements

	On Own	Transition
After	−0.024 (0.015)	−0.017 (0.013)
R²	0.42	0.09
N	10,816	10,816
# Individuals	3,039	3,039

Sensitivity Analysis - Substance Use: Intensive Margin

	# Cigarettes Smoked per Day	Drinks Several Times per Month	# Drinks Consumed per Session	# Times Used Marijuana past 12 Months	# Times used Pain Relievers/Narcotics past 12 Months
Panel A: Displaced from Main Job
After	1.503^* (0.841)	−0.036 (0.046)	0.785^*** (0.230)	1.287 (1.371)	−1.451 (2.836)
R²	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.04
N	1,721	6,883	6,825	5,320	1,419
# Individuals	748	2,516	2,509	2,019	978

Panel B: Employed at Baseline Interview
After	0.412 (0.623)	−0.016 (0.035)	0.560^*** (0.172)	1.396 (1.134)	−4.750 (3.226)
R²	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.05
N	918	3,790	3,762	2,868	765
# Individuals	411	1,432	1,429	1,111	545

Panel C: Worked at Least 25 Hours per Week at Baseline Interview
After	−0.084 (0.701)	0.008 (0.039)	0.669^*** (0.210)	0.652 (1.171)	−3.729 (2.969)
R²	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.13
N	758	2,805	2,785	2,186	417
# Individuals	310	885	887	714	286

Panel D: Displaced Workers Present from t – 2 and t + 2
After	0.589 (0.665)	−0.055^* (0.031)	0.454^*** (0.151)	0.824 (0.950)	−1.635 (2.576)
R²	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.04
N	1,539	6,362	6,307	4,883	1,315
# Individuals	665	2,299	2,292	1,834	901

Displacement's Effect on Attrition

	Attrite
After	0.008 (0.016)
R²	0.68
N	5,725
# Individuals	1,417

Sensitivity Analysis - Substance Use: Extensive Margin

	Currently Smokes	Currently Drinks	Ever Use Marijuana	Ever Use Other Drugs	Ever Use Pain Relievers
Panel A: Displaced from Main Job
After	0.032 (0.022)	−0.020 (0.027)	−0.075^*** (0.025)	−0.011 (0.021)	0.065 (0.068)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.06
N	10,790	10,781	10,759	10,759	4,486
# Individuals	3,039	3,039	3,039	3,039	2,004

Panel B: Employed at Baseline Interview
After	0.040^** (0.017)	0.025 (0.025)	−0.031 (0.020)	0.014 (0.020)	0.057 (0.046)
R²	0.00	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.06
N	5,767	5,763	5,758	5,758	2,523
# Individuals	1,695	1,695	1,695	1,695	1,147

Panel C: Worked at Least 25 Hours per Week at Baseline Interview
After	0.049^** (0.020)	0.020 (0.026)	−0.012 (0.023)	0.012 (0.024)	0.032 (0.070)
R²	0.01	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.05
N	3,999	3,996	3,994	3,994	1,098
# Individuals	989	989	989	989	475

Panel D: Displaced Workers Present between t – 2 and t + 2
After	0.028^* (0.015)	0.019 (0.021)	−0.034^** (0.017)	−0.001 (0.017)	0.043 (0.055)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.06	0.03	0.06
N	9,979	9,970	9,950	9,950	4,132
# Individuals	2,787	2,787	2,787	2,787	1,849

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use - Declining Economic Activity

Panel A: Extensive Margin

	Currently Smokes	Currently Drinks	Ever Use Marijuana	Ever Use Other Drugs
After	0.032 (0.027)	0.052 (0.034)	0.018 (0.029)	0.040 (0.029)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.03
N	8,585	8,577	8,559	8,559
# Individuals	2,492	2,492	2,492	2,492

Sensitivity Analysis - Labor Market Outcomes

	Earnings	Log Earnings	Employed
Panel A: Displaced Main Job
After	−6,673.086^*** (849.543)	−0.863^*** (0.245)	−0.406^*** (0.033)
R²	0.17	0.16	0.10
N	10,816	8,460	10,816
# Individuals	3,039	2,863	3,039

Panel B: Employed at Baseline
After	−4,616.058^*** (949.157)	−0.860^*** (0.196)	−0.141^*** (0.022)
R²	0.23	0.14	0.12
N	5,781	4,914	5,781
# Individuals	1,695	1,655	1,695

Panel C: Works at Least 25 Hours at Baseline
After	−4,896.733^*** (1,456.795)	−0.836^*** (0.203)	−0.179^*** (0.030)
R²	0.12	0.17	0.07
N	4,005	3,589	4,005
# Individuals	989	986	989

Panel D: Displaced Workers Present between t–2 and t+2
After	−4,993.206^*** (848.074)	−0.886^*** (0.167)	−0.117^*** (0.024)
R²	0.17	0.17	0.08
N	10,004	7,802	10,004
# Individuals	2,787	2,617	2,787

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use

Panel A: Substance Use at Extensive Margin

	Current Smokes	Current Drink	Ever Used Marijuana	Ever Used Other Drugs	Ever Used Pain Reliever/Narcotics
After	0.024^* (0.013)	0.020 (0.018)	0.002 (0.015)	0.024^* (0.014)	−0.007 (0.030)
R²	0.00	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.07
N	6,034	6,028	6,015	6,015	1,883
# Individuals	1,307	1,307	1,307	1,307	695

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use by Type of Support – Extensive Margin

	Cigarettes	Alcohol	Marijuana	Other Drugs	Pain Relievers/Narcotics
Panel A: Parental Support
After	0.045^** (0.019)	0.035 (0.023)	0.016 (0.020)	0.031 (0.019)	0.054 (0.054)
R²	0.01	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.06
N	9,221	9,212	9,191	9,191	4,084
# Individuals	2,656	2,656	2,656	2,656	1,843

Panel B: Government Support
After	0.084^** (0.036)	−0.016 (0.048)	−0.043 (0.040)	0.073^* (0.038)	−0.068 (0.116)
R²	0.01	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.06
N	8,138	8,131	8,111	8,111	3,786
# Individuals	2,388	2,388	2,388	2,388	1,728

Panel C: Own Support
After	0.030^** (0.014)	0.040^** (0.020)	0.006 (0.017)	0.023 (0.016)	−0.018 (0.039)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.06
N	10,084	10,076	10,053	10,053	4,313
# Individuals	2,857	2,857	2,857	2,857	1,935

Heterogeneity by Gender

Panel A: Labor Market Outcomes

	Log Earnings	Real	Employed

Men	−0.908^** (0.368)	−3,174.104 (2,223.554)	−0.077 (0.055)
Women	0.225 (0.354)	−4002.388^*** (1513.980)	−0.184^*** (0.054)
R²	0.18	0.17	0.09
N	6,505	8,422	8,422
# Individuals	2,297	2,463	2,463
Sig. Different	5%	No	No

Panel B: Substance Use at Extensive Margin

	Currently Smokes	Currently Drinks	Ever Used Marijuana	Ever Used Other Drugs	Ever Used Pain Relievers/Narcotics

Men	−0.001 (0.036)	0.008 (0.041)	−0.061 (0.039)	−0.022 (0.041)	0.047 (0.099)
Women	0.004 (0.031)	0.078^* (0.045)	−0.024 (0.042)	−0.024 (0.028)	−0.099 (0.098)
R²	0.00	0.11	0.07	0.02	0.06
N	8,403	8,395	8,374	8,374	3,907
# Individuals	2,463	2,463	2,463	2,463	1,779
Sig. Different	No	No	No	No	No

Panel C: Substance Use at Intensive Margin

	# Cigarettes Smoked Per Day	Drinks Several Times per Month	# Drinks per Session	# Times Used Marijuana in Past 12 Months	# Times Used Pain Relievers Past 12 Months

Men	0.667 (1.294)	−0.054 (0.064)	0.624^* (0.365)	2.149 (2.545)	−7.610^** (3.573)
Women	−0.743 (0.807)	0.002 (0.065)	−0.347 (0.265)	1.382 (2.152)	−4.688 (3.749)
R²	0.03	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.04
N	1,156	5,363	5,319	3,991	1,221
# Individuals	531	2,010	2,003	1,580	860
Sig. Different	No	No	5%	No	No

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use by Type of Support – Intensive Margin

	# Cigarettes	Drinks Several Times per Month	# Drinks per Session	# Times Used Marijuana in Previous 12 Months	# Times Used Pain Relievers in Previous 12 Months
Panel A: Parental Support
After	0.614 (0.834)	−0.067^* (0.035)	0.214 (0.152)	3.147^*** (1.129)	−1.313 (2.667)
R²	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.04
N	1,359	5,958	5,908	4,544	1,291
# Individuals	608	2,190	2,184	1,749	894

Panel B: Government Support
After	0.539 (1.009)	0.066 (0.060)	0.679^** (0.334)	2.389 (1.615)	−3.034 (2.231)
R²	0.03	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.05
N	1,097	5,181	5,135	3,877	1,180
# Individuals	506	1,941	1,934	1,543	829

Panel C: Own Support
After	0.034 (0.636)	−0.036 (0.028)	0.324^** (0.135)	2.324^** (0.903)	−2.030 (2.136)
R²	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.04
N	1,503	6,508	6,455	4,937	1,363
# Individuals	661	2,368	2,362	1,882	939

Displacement's Effect on Labor Market Outcome - Heterogeneity

	Log Earnings	Real Earnings	Employed
Panel A: Gender
Men	−0.816^*** (0.184)	−2,988.339^*** (983.679)	−0.108^*** (0.028)
Women	−0.694^*** (0.200)	−5573.236^*** (867.409)	−0.161^*** (0.028)
R²	0.16	0.17	0.08
N	8,460	10,816	10,816
# Individuals	2,863	3,039	3,039
Sig. Different	No	5%	No

Panel B: Race
Non-White	−0.946^*** (0.178)	−5,958.624^*** (785.528)	−0.151^*** (0.025)
White	−0.492^** (0.212)	−1481.940 (1177.504)	−0.108^*** (0.031)
R²	0.17	0.17	0.08
N	8,453	10,807	10,807
# Individuals	2,861	3,036	3,036
Sig. Different	10%	1%	No

Panel C: Living Arrangements
With Others	−0.984^*** (0.184)	−5,054.904^*** (795.454)	−0.086^*** (0.026)
On Own	−0.506^** (0.202)	−3360.716^*** (1094.889)	−0.193^*** (0.030)
R²	0.17	0.17	0.09
N	8,460	10,816	10,816
# Individuals	2,863	3,039	3,039
Sig. Different	10%	No	1%

Substance Use's Effect on Displacement

Panel A: Extensive Margin

	Current Smoke	Current Drink	Ever Used Marijuana	Ever Used Other Drugs	Ever Used Pain Relievers/Narcotics
Job Loss	0.010 (0.022)	−0.012 (0.013)	0.014 (0.014)	0.009 (0.017)	−0.029 (0.026)
R²	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
N	7,768	7,761	7,755	7,755	2,510
# Individuals	3,038	3,037	3,038	3,038	1,793

Young adult substance use following involuntary job loss

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure H-1

Figure H-2

Heterogeneity by Race

Heterogeneity - Relative Differences

The Effect of Substance Use on Employment

Non-Random Attrition

Heterogeneity by Living Arrangements

Descriptive Statistics (means) of Selected Variables

Displacement's Effect on Labor Market Outcomes

Displacement's Effect on Living Arrangements

Sensitivity Analysis - Substance Use: Intensive Margin

Displacement's Effect on Attrition

Sensitivity Analysis - Substance Use: Extensive Margin

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use - Declining Economic Activity

Sensitivity Analysis - Labor Market Outcomes

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use by Type of Support – Extensive Margin

Heterogeneity by Gender

Displacement's Effect on Substance Use by Type of Support – Intensive Margin

Displacement's Effect on Labor Market Outcome - Heterogeneity

Substance Use's Effect on Displacement

Paradigm

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