Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Replacement rate and receipt of unemployment insurance benefits and family cash transfers among unemployed workers, heads of household and spouses aged 19-59 years, 1976-2013 PSID
| Replacement rate | Share reporting receipt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potential weekly UI benefit | Reported 6-month UI benefit | Reported 6-month transfer | UI benefits | Family cash transfer | Both UI and family | Neither UI nor family | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| All | 0.432 | 0.277 | 0.411 | 0.286 | 0.153 | 0.029 | 0.533 |
| Age, years | |||||||
| 29 | 0.442 | 0.288 | 0.379 | 0.216 | 0.209 | 0.030 | 0.544 |
| 39 | 0.430 | 0.258 | 0.413 | 0.326 | 0.129 | 0.032 | 0.514 |
| 49 | 0.421 | 0.265 | 0.471 | 0.339 | 0.097 | 0.025 | 0.538 |
| 59 | 0.423 | 0.319 | 0.568 | 0.376 | 0.075 | 0.019 | 0.531 |
| Race | |||||||
| Black | 0.428 | 0.276 | 0.303 | 0.237 | 0.162 | 0.027 | 0.574 |
| White | 0.435 | 0.270 | 0.511 | 0.336 | 0.149 | 0.032 | 0.483 |
| Gender | |||||||
| Male | 0.429 | 0.261 | 0.293 | 0.361 | 0.149 | 0.032 | 0.459 |
| Female | 0.436 | 0.307 | 0.545 | 0.205 | 0.157 | 0.025 | 0.613 |
| Family | |||||||
| Married | 0.433 | 0.276 | 0.412 | 0.310 | 0.109 | 0.024 | 0.557 |
| Divorced | 0.430 | 0.259 | 0.378 | 0.293 | 0.187 | 0.041 | 0.479 |
| Never married | 0.432 | 0.304 | 0.432 | 0.213 | 0.253 | 0.034 | 0.499 |
| Education | |||||||
| LTHS | 0.437 | 0.293 | 0.354 | 0.264 | 0.120 | 0.015 | 0.601 |
| HS | 0.440 | 0.285 | 0.334 | 0.298 | 0.139 | 0.027 | 0.536 |
| Some college | 0.433 | 0.268 | 0.439 | 0.299 | 0.171 | 0.037 | 0.492 |
| BA or higher | 0.408 | 0.248 | 0.555 | 0.258 | 0.196 | 0.036 | 0.510 |
| White HS | 0.445 | 0.272 | 0.358 | 0.377 | 0.124 | 0.031 | 0.467 |
| Black HS | 0.433 | 0.291 | 0.303 | 0.230 | 0.157 | 0.023 | 0.590 |
| White BA | 0.402 | 0.255 | 0.650 | 0.261 | 0.199 | 0.033 | 0.508 |
| Black BA | 0.419 | 0.218 | 0.187 | 0.255 | 0.194 | 0.043 | 0.508 |
Coefficient estimates from regression of family transfer receipt on unemployment spell, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| Binary transfer receipt | Real transfer amount (in $2013) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Unemployment (U) | 0.039*** (0.002) | 70.921*** (12.284) | ||
| U displaced | 0.037*** (0.004) | 49.332** (16.624) | ||
| U voluntary | 0.047*** (0.004) | 66.902*** (20.292) | ||
| U not specified | 0.034*** (0.003) | 81.649*** (17.184) | ||
| Becomes homeowner | 0.006* (0.003) | 0.006* (0.003) | 219.624*** (35.85) | 219.577*** (35.848) |
| Gets married | 0.017*** (0.005) | 0.017*** (0.005) | 5.077 (39.528) | 5.084 (39.535) |
| Gets divorced | 0.004 (0.005) | 0.004 (0.005) | 27.743 (31.09) | 27.701 (31.089) |
| (separated) | ||||
| Becomes a parent | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | -11.928 (28.081) | -11.911 (28.078) |
| Leaves school | 0.071*** (0.006) | 0.071*** (0.006) | 394.865*** (56.53) | 394.850*** (56.543) |
| Becomes disabled | -0.01 (0.007) | -0.01 (0.007) | -4.644 (32.211) | -5.056 (32.207) |
| Homeowner | -0.016*** (0.002) | -0.016*** (0.002) | 1.389 (14.459) | 1.3 (14.463) |
| Married | -0.061*** (0.004) | -0.061*** (0.004) | -83.636** (25.677) | -83.729** (25.67) |
| Divorced/separated | -0.013* (0.005) | -0.013* (0.005) | 16.409 (31.815) | 16.352 (31.813) |
| Has children | 0.009*** (0.002) | 0.009*** (0.002) | 59.668*** (17.249) | 59.755*** (17.247) |
| Student | 0.050*** (0.007) | 0.049*** (0.007) | 234.176*** (57.261) | 234.371*** (57.218) |
| Disabled HH member | 0.027*** (0.004) | 0.027*** (0.004) | 53.140** (18.225) | 52.949** (18.221) |
| State UR | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.002** (0.001) | 9.492** (3.445) | 9.553** (3.443) |
| Age | -0.012*** (0.001) | -0.012*** (0.001) | -34.083*** (4.792) | -34.217*** (4.794) |
| Other Xit | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Individual and year fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Mean of dependent variable | 8.0% | 8.0% | $242.99 | $242.99 |
| N | 278,794 | 278,794 | 278,794 | 278,794 |
Coefficient estimate of regression of family transfer receipt on unemployment, by demographic subgroup, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| Group | γ Estimate | Mean | Percentage increase | Group | γ Estimate | Mean | Percentage increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 19–29 years | 0.044*** | 0.14 | 31% | Married | 0.027*** | 0.053 | 51% |
| SE | 0.004 | SE | 0.002 | ||||
| Aged 30–39 years | 0.034*** | 0.068 | 50% | Divorced | 0.050*** | 0.108 | 46% |
| SE | 0.004 | SE | 0.008 | ||||
| Aged 40–49 years | 0.023*** | 0.049 | 47% | Never married | 0.054*** | 0.178 | 30% |
| SE | 0.004 | SE | 0.006 | ||||
| Aged 50–59 years | 0.015** | 0.039 | 38% | Less than HS | 0.022*** | 0.072 | 31% |
| SE | 0.005 | SE | 0.005 | ||||
| Male | 0.043*** | 0.076 | 57% | HS degree | 0.036*** | 0.071 | 51% |
| SE | 0.003 | SE | 0.003 | ||||
| Female | 0.035*** | 0.083 | 42% | Some college | 0.039*** | 0.089 | 44% |
| SE | 0.003 | SE | 0.004 | ||||
| Black | 0.037*** | 0.093 | 40% | BA or higher | 0.061*** | 0.086 | 71% |
| SE | 0.004 | SE | 0.006 | ||||
| White | 0.041*** | 0.073 | 56% | ||||
| SE | 0.003 |
Share of observed family transfers concurrent with life events, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| Share of transfers | Conditional transfer size in $2013 | |
|---|---|---|
| Exiting college | 0.057 (0.231) | $4,015 ($7,749) |
| Getting married | 0.038 (0.191) | $2,796 ($5,858) |
| Becoming separated | 0.056 (0.229) | $2,565 ($4,775) |
| Buying a house | 0.047 (0.211) | $5,795 ($12,708) |
| Having a child | 0.054 (0.226) | $3,094 ($7,769) |
| Unemployed | 0.236 (0.425) | $2,060 ($4,158) |
| None of the above | 0.599 (0.490) | $3,034 ($6,479) |
Coefficient estimates of regressions of family transfer receipt on unemployment insurance receipt, actual and instrumented, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| Observed | IV | IV | IV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All years | All years | 1976–1995 | 1996–2013 | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Unemployment | 0.047*** | 0.046*** | 0.035*** | 0.057** |
| SE | 0.003 | 0.01 | 0.007 | 0.018 |
| U*UI | -0.026*** | -0.022 | -0.013 | -0.042 |
| SE | 0.004 | 0.028 | 0.021 | 0.050 |
| Xit | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Individual fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| State × Year fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Wage spline | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| N | 225,298 | 225,298 | 104,434 | 120,864 |
| Unemployment | 81.996*** | 126.348 | 104.796* | 268.452 |
| SE | 16.88 | 81.71 | 42.05 | 171.039 |
| U*UI | -44.413 | -172.286 | -199.33 | -504.385 |
| SE | 23.553 | 233.246 | 120.452 | 480.321 |
| Xit | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Individual fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| State × Year fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Wage spline | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| N | 225,298 | 225,298 | 104,434 | 120,864 |
Coefficient estimate of regression of family transfer receipt on unemployment, by length of spell, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| All spells | Displaced | Voluntary | Not specified | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Tit = Dummy | ||||
| Short spell | 0.027*** | 0.022** | 0.049*** | 0.015** |
| SE | 0.004 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.005 |
| Medium spell | 0.035*** | 0.032*** | 0.045*** | 0.029*** |
| SE | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Long spell | 0.061*** | 0.059*** | 0.052*** | 0.065*** |
| SE | 0.004 | 0.007 | 0.01 | 0.006 |
| Tit = Amount | ||||
| Short spell | 44.339 | -19.442 | 82.353 | 48.26 |
| SE | 24.406 | 31.863 | 50.449 | 34.488 |
| Medium spell | 61.758*** | 35.02 | 54.571* | 78.637*** |
| SE | 14.87 | 20.28 | 23.203 | 22.913 |
| Long spell | 118.278*** | 118.122*** | 91.879* | 122.748*** |
| SE | 19.319 | 28.926 | 41.3 | 26.474 |
Coefficient estimate of regression of family transfer receipt on unemployment, by variable construction, heads of household and spouses aged 19–59 years, 1976–2013 PSID
| Binary transfer receipt | Real transfer amount (in $2013) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own | Head | Spouse | Own | Head | Spouse | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Unemployment | 0.036*** | 0.044*** | 0.006 | 67.603*** | 64.481*** | 1.456 |
| SE | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 9.979 | 11.479 | 2.955 |
| Other Xit | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Individual and Year fixed effects | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Mean of dependent variable | 6.0% | 7.3% | 0.9% | $162.60 | $209.62 | $33.38 |
| N | 278,794 | 173,125 | 105,669 | 278,794 | 173,125 | 105,669 |