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Select Coefficient Estimates from Event Study of Child Unemployment
| Transfer Sent (Dummy) | Household Food ($ Amount) | Hours Per Week (Mother) | Any SSA Income (Dummy) | IRA Value ($2014) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three Years Prior omitted | 53.624 | 0.002 | 0.002 | ||
| 63.071 | 0.004 | 0.006 | |||
| Two Years Prior | -0.003 | -92.137 | 0.009 | 0.003 | |
| 0.004 | 47.369 | 0.005 | 0.004 | ||
| One Year Prior | 0.004 | ||||
| 0.004 | |||||
| Year of Spell | 0.017*** | -247.932*** | 0.005 | 0.005 | |
| 0.004 | 49.094 | 0.004 | 0.004 | ||
| One Year Following | 0.006 | -99.408 | -0.004 | -0.004 | |
| 0.004 | 58.54 | 0.005 | 0.005 | ||
| Two Years Following | 0.006 | -182.690*** | -0.003 | -0.003 | |
| 0.004 | 47.453 | 0.004 | 0.004 | ||
| Three Years Following | 0.002 | 1.45 | -0.005 | -0.006 | |
| 0.004 | 62.927 | 0.006 | 0.006 | ||
| Six Years Prior | -1681.603 | ||||
| 1866.971 | |||||
| Four Years Prior | 4238.236** | ||||
| 1631.711 | |||||
| Two Years Prior | |||||
| Year of Spell | -404.534 | ||||
| 1766.55 | |||||
| Two Years Following | -1978.394 | ||||
| 1739.658 | |||||
| Four Years Following | -3165.834 | ||||
| 1954.675 | |||||
| Six Years Following | -473.223 | ||||
| 1936.578 | |||||
| Xpt and Xct | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Age & Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Individual FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| N | 38004 | 38004 | 38004 | 38004 | 15242 |
Summary of Mothers, by Age
| All N=38004 | Moms Age < 62 N=23885 | Moms Age 62-70 N=7972 | Moms Age >70 N=6147 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 59.6 | 50.1 | 65.7 | 78.6 |
| White | 0.772 | 0.762 | 0.851 | 0.804 |
| Black | 0.127 | 0.133 | 0.073 | 0.136 |
| High School or Less | 0.575 | 0.545 | 0.736 | 0.834 |
| Some College or More | 0.423 | 0.453 | 0.256 | 0.166 |
| Married | 0.594 | 0.659 | 0.651 | 0.383 |
| Divorced/Sep. | 0.201 | 0.240 | 0.197 | 0.105 |
| Never Married | 0.040 | 0.062 | 0.012 | 0.007 |
| Widow | 0.165 | 0.039 | 0.139 | 0.506 |
| Disabled | 0.044 | 0.055 | 0.031 | 0.028 |
| Housewife | 0.136 | 0.121 | 0.142 | 0.172 |
| Working | 0.492 | 0.703 | 0.336 | 0.082 |
| Sent Transfer to Kid | 0.070 | 0.085 | 0.068 | 0.035 |
| Size of Transfer to Kid | $329 | $373 | $344 | $206 |
| Received Transfer | 0.059 | 0.069 | 0.037 | 0.052 |
| Size of Received Transfer | $187 | $227 | $101 | $154 |
| Usual Food Consumption | $7196 | $8060 | $7124 | $5060 |
| Family Size | 2.370 | 2.730 | 1.890 | 1.560 |
| Per Capita Food Consumption | $4808 | $4738 | $5361 | $4430 |
| Hours Per Week | 19.8 | 27.5 | 10.0 | 2.3 |
| Weeks Worked | 25.0 | 35.3 | 17.7 | 4.7 |
| Receiving SSA Income | 0.458 | 0.138 | 0.840 | 0.966 |
| Receiving SNAP | 0.070 | 0.093 | 0.044 | 0.032 |
| Contribute to a Pension | 0.079 | 0.122 | 0.034 | 0.005 |
| Percent of Income Cont. | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.0003 |
| Ever Contributed to Pension | 0.222 | 0.321 | 0.149 | 0.027 |
| Vehicle Value | $16851 | $18320 | $18972 | $11437 |
| IRA Value | $65123 | $47195 | $111975 | $73405 |
Summary of Adult Children in the Year of Unemployment, by Age of Mother
| All N=9236 | With Moms Age <62 N=6259 | With Moms Age 62-70 N=2066 | With Moms Age >70 N=911 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 32.2 | 28.8 | 37.1 | 44.9 |
| Female | 0.509 | 0.517 | 0.488 | 0.501 |
| Male | 0.491 | 0.483 | 0.512 | 0.499 |
| With Minors | 0.727 | 0.771 | 0.672 | 0.543 |
| Married | 0.464 | 0.450 | 0.494 | 0.488 |
| Same State | 0.821 | 0.832 | 0.809 | 0.774 |
| Kid more educated that mother | 0.541 | 0.502 | 0.620 | 0.631 |
| Concurrent w/disability | 0.006 | 0.004 | 0.010 | 0.019 |
| Concurrent w/new child | 0.097 | 0.111 | 0.080 | 0.041 |
| Concurrent w/divorce | 0.101 | 0.104 | 0.100 | 0.085 |
| Concurrent w/sibling unemp. | 0.308 | 0.309 | 0.317 | 0.285 |
| Displaced | 0.277 | 0.278 | 0.279 | 0.261 |
| Layoff | 0.187 | 0.194 | 0.181 | 0.154 |
| Firm Closing | 0.044 | 0.420 | 0.054 | 0.041 |
| Voluntary | 0.261 | 0.291 | 0.216 | 0.153 |
| Not Known | 0.477 | 0.446 | 0.518 | 0.595 |
| Worked FT previously | 0.592 | 0.576 | 0.617 | 0.643 |
| Unemp. Spell <26 weeks | 0.728 | 0.741 | 0.716 | 0.661 |
| Remain in LF after spell | 0.758 | 0.761 | 0.760 | 0.737 |
Select Results from Regressions of Mothers’ Outcomes on Child Unemployment Indicator, Varied by Spell Features and Mother Characteristics
| Hours Per Week (Mother) | Any SSA Income (Dummy) | Pension Contribution (% of Income) | Vehicle Value ($2014) | IRA Value ($2014) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reason for Unemp | |||||
| Displacement | -0.085 0.222 | 0.006 0.006 | -0.016 0.081 | -609.951 411.754 | 873.839 2483.971 |
| Voluntary | 0.166 | 0.004 | -0.009 | 496.037 | 1885.715 |
| 0.223 | 0.006 | 0.077 | 521.466 | 2708.635 | |
| Not known | 0.042 | 0.002 | -0.078 | -234.815 | -882.662 |
| 0.183 | 0.005 | 0.05 | 288.635 | 1859.501 | |
| Labor Supply Before Spell | |||||
| In school | -0.191 | -0.005 | 0.062 | -965.514 | -2413.764 |
| 0.593 | 0.015 | 0.162 | 958.416 | 5344.529 | |
| Working | 0.271 | 0.007 | -0.121* | -167.978 | -1454.786 |
| 0.224 | 0.007 | 0.056 | 388.189 | 2528.836 | |
| (Re)Entry spell | 0.013 | -0.003 | -0.079 | -599.676 | 1211.68 |
| 0.331 | 0.007 | 0.082 | 453.678 | 2603.126 | |
| Duration of Spell | |||||
| Less than 4 weeks | -0.081 | 0.006 | -0.063 | -848.764 | -1927.471 |
| 0.223 | 0.006 | 0.072 | 460.423 | 2801.018 | |
| 5 - 25 weeks | 0.156 | 0.006 | -0.078 | -67.61 | -81.938 |
| 0.177 | 0.005 | 0.052 | 300.077 | 1829.726 | |
| 26 weeks or more | -0.036 0.246 | 0.004 0.007 | 0.035 0.061 | -636.967 351.531 | -249.583 2172.317 |
| Labor Supply After Spell | |||||
| Remain in LF | 0.08 | 0.007 | -0.042 | -457.824 | 63.698 |
| 0.152 | 0.005 | 0.049 | 278.039 | 1821.423 | |
| Exit LF | -0.12 | 0.003 | -0.085 | 125.597 | -201.137 |
| 0.254 | 0.007 | 0.063 | 390.191 | 2112.369 | |
| Age of Mother | |||||
| <62 years old | -0.034 | 0.011* | -0.136* | -629.627* | 1193.747 |
| 0.181 | 0.005 | 0.062 | 323.912 | 1938.567 | |
| 62 - 70 years old | 0.247 | -0.013 | 0.09 | 59.071 | -11955.068** |
| 0.295 | 0.011 | 0.103 | 589.662 | 4364.769 | |
| >70 years old | 0.328 0.353 | -0.002 0.01 | 0.024 0.033 | 756.538 501.562 | 4062.347 3578.795 |
| Mother’s Work Status | |||||
| Working Mom | 1.103*** | 0.034 | -0.008 | -1791.323 | -270.684 |
| 0.225 | 0.078 | 0.005 | 1974.127 | 350.927 | |
| Not Working Mom | -0.114 | 0.153* | 0.007 | -928.61 | -330.582 |
| 0.200 | 0.068 | 0.006 | 2767.183 | 350.957 | |
| Number of Kids Unemp | |||||
| Multiple | -0.264 | 0.009 | 0.025 | -67.433 | 968.341 |
| 0.338 | 0.01 | 0.082 | 605.542 | 3121.918 | |
| Single | 0.097 | 0.005 | -0.076 | -347.493 | -508.813 |
| 0.149 | 0.004 | 0.048 | 270.376 | 1702.294 | |
Sample Drops
| Target | PSID Group | N (person-year) |
|---|---|---|
| (i.) Individuals with annual labor force measures | Heads and Spouses | 410,524 |
| (iia.) Potential children | Person number of mom is given | 314,200 |
| (iib.) Potential mothers | Female who indicates she has/ had children | 172,032 |
| (iii.) Matched observations | (iia.) = (iib.) | 52,653 |
| (iv.) Matched Moms | All observations of mother has a matched child | 117,843 |
| (v.) Years with transfer recipient info | 1985-2013 | 69,541 |
| (vi.) Kids living separately | 38,004 | |
Summary of Women 40-80 years old in the PSID by child match and motherhood
| Matched Moms N=35919 | Unmatched Moms N=27375 | Remaining Women N=8791 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 62.0 | 51.3 | 56.7 |
| Min Observed Age | 34.9 | 29.6 | 35.5 |
| Max Observed Age | 68.0 | 57.8 | 61.0 |
| White | 0.744 | 0.709 | 0.738 |
| Black | 0.134 | 0.115 | 0.104 |
| High School or Less | 0.696 | 0.432 | 0.371 |
| Some College or More | 0.298 | 0.565 | 0.604 |
| Married | 0.596 | 0.676 | 0.443 |
| Divorced/Sep. | 0.194 | 0.196 | 0.118 |
| Never Married | 0.029 | 0.053 | 0.333 |
| Widow | 0.180 | 0.074 | 0.106 |
| Disabled | 0.045 | 0.030 | 0.062 |
| Housewife | 0.145 | 0.132 | 0.086 |
| Working | 0.456 | 0.671 | 0.587 |
| Sent Transfer to Kid | 0.072 | 0.041 | 0.037 |
| Size of Transfer to Kid | $336 | $214 | $198 |
| Received Transfer | 0.051 | 0.073 | 0.059 |
| Size of Received Transfer | $159 | $287 | $216 |
| Weeks Worked | 23.2 | 33.1 | 28.6 |
| Weeks Unemployed | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Receiving SSA Income | 0.510 | 0.207 | 0.322 |
| Receiving SNAP | 0.061 | 0.063 | 0.048 |
| Usual Food Consumption | $6904 | $9235 | $6576 |
| Contribute to a Pension | 0.071 | 0.110 | 0.125 |
| Percent of Income Cont. | 0.537 | 0.784 | 1.025 |
| Ever Contributed to Pension | 0.204 | 0.296 | 0.283 |
| Vehicle Value | $17,181 | $18,037 | $16,536 |
| IRA Value | $69,016 | $40,668 | $62,113 |
Results from Regressions of Mother Outcomes on Child Unemployment Indicator
| Pension Contribution (Dummy) | Stock Value ($2014) | Debt Value ($2014) | Home Value ($2014) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemp Kid | -0.002 | -1513.996 | 454.556 | 1561.479 |
| 0.005 | 1666.428 | 255.919 | 1403.293 | |
| Child Controls Kid Becomes Disabled | 0 | 2626.709 | 1166.494* | -5197.965 |
| 0.008 | 4438.054 | 520.158 | 2718.213 | |
| Kid Gets Married | 0 | 789.654 | 19.885 | 85.658 |
| 0.007 | 2298.371 | 314.955 | 1558.143 | |
| Kid Gets Divorced | -0.009 | -4895.298 | 389.929 | 924.424 |
| 0.007 | 2614.122 | 376.085 | 1974.571 | |
| Kid has a Kid | 0.013 | 278.443 | -283.017 | 913.566 |
| 0.007 | 2205.188 | 286.884 | 1607.339 | |
| Mother Controls Unemp in Mom‘s HH | -0.018 | 70.956 | 339.314 | -350.68 |
| 0.011 | 3505.753 | 716.126 | 2961.22 | |
| Partnered | -0.036 | 19356.652 | -1086.066 | 54720.251*** |
| 0.049 | 15887.211 | 2723.026 | 14534.935 | |
| Divorced/Sep | -0.012 | 14333.635 | -2919.139 | 41898.055** |
| 0.049 | 15451.726 | 2687.231 | 14323.284 | |
| Never Married | -0.042 | 10205.989 | -1909.768 | 7158.833 |
| 0.053 | 15374.619 | 2933.508 | 15570.792 | |
| Widow | -0.043 | 15397.166 | -1398.312 | 47426.496** |
| 0.049 | 15707.192 | 2731.242 | 14577.005 | |
| Housewife | 0.007 | 16.673 | -570.592 | 4878.95 |
| 0.006 | 2940.404 | 514.792 | 2624.946 | |
| Retired | -0.007 | -2265.561 | -1008.653 | 5290.923 |
| 0.008 | 3774.213 | 536.777 | 2940.598 | |
| Disabled | -0.004 | 55.829 | 581.966 | -3280.404 |
| 0.008 | 3601.853 | 640.836 | 3117.021 | |
| Working | 0.058*** | -4727.845* | -922.344 | 768.266 |
| 0.008 | 2228.33 | 510.185 | 2216.697 | |
| State UR | -0.002 | -29.477 | -51.83 | -6495.694*** |
| 0.002 | 898.708 | 124.402 | 779.443 | |
| Year & Age FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Individual FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| N | 15242 | 15242 | 12903 | 15242 |
Main Coefficient Estimates, Adjusted by Sequential Addition of Controls
| No Controls | Individual Fixed Effects | Year and Age Controls | Mother Controls | Child Controls | Ever Unemp Only | Ever Xfer Only | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer Sent | 0.013*** | 0.020*** | 0.018*** | 0.018*** | 0.018*** | 0.018*** | 0.041*** |
| (Dummy) | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Transfer Sent | 8.53 | 87.052*** | 67.379** | 76.464** | 77.561** | 77.364** | 169.893** |
| ($ Amount) | 19.649 | 22.081 | 22.875 | 25.563 | 25.559 | 25.675 | 60.202 |
| Household Food | 86.449 | -331.010* | -287.719*** | -257.769*** | -254.045*** | -254.947*** | -363.754*** |
| ($ Amount) | 130.911 | 160.788 | 47.062 | 49.334 | 49.415 | 49.453 | 73.565 |
| Household Food | -0.100*** | -0.039*** | -0.047*** | -0.041*** | -0.041*** | -0.041*** | -0.046*** |
| (Log) | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.012 |
| Weeks worked | -0.589* | 0.613* | -0.136 | 0.379* | 0.380* | 0.371* | 0.659** |
| 0.272 | 0.241 | 0.217 | 0.162 | 0.162 | 0.162 | 0.237 | |
| Hours per week | -0.521* | 0.699*** | 0.062 | 0.052 | 0.058 | 0.058 | 0.159 |
| 0.171 | 0.205 | 0.189 | 0.147 | 0.147 | 0.147 | 0.236 | |
| Any SSA income | -0.033*** | -0.026*** | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.007 | |
| Pension cont. | -0.177*** | -0.034 | -0.062 | -0.066 | -0.068 | -0.07 | -0.099 |
| 0.045 | 0.039 | 0.04 | 0.047 | 0.047 | 0.047 | 0.084 | |
| Vehicle value | -2918.407*** | -458.103* | -411.898 | -335.144 | -324.563 | -318.569 | -660.155 |
| 281.631 | 225.372 | 233.06 | 264.927 | 265.048 | 266.08 | 384.992 | |
| IRA value | -10093.551*** | 1809.03 | 73.393 | -289.506 | -387.872 | -345.395 | -1367.046 |
| 1892.288 | 1432.179 | 1481.23 | 1660.82 | 1666.556 | 1667.105 | 2873.747 |