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The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare Cover

The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare

By:  and    
Open Access
|Dec 2022

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989).

Figure 2

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003).

Figure 3

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011).

Table 1

Sierra Leone Household Expenditure Percentile Ratios by Conflict Exposure

90th–10th90th–50th50th–10th
50th50th50th
1989:
Overall10.13159.39090.7406
Conflict8.11307.27570.8373
Non-conflict9.38918.66310.7260
Change−1.2761−1.38740.1113
2003:
Overall2.56142.01070.5507
Conflict1.66371.14580.5178
Non-conflict3.21742.62550.5919
Change−1.5537−1.4797−0.0741
2011:
Overall1.75921.25370.5055
Conflict1.45170.95200.4994
Non-conflict1.84871.34080.5078
Change−0.3970−0.3888−0.0084
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)−0.2776−0.0923−0.1854
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)0.87910.9986−0.1197

[i] Notes: “Change” denotes the difference in outcomes between the conflict and non-conflict affected zones; see Table 2 for the relevant sample sizes used to compute the relevant summary statistics. D-i-D1 and D-i-D2 are the raw difference-in-differences between 2003/1989 and 2011/1989; the 2003 and 2011 expenditure values were based on a new currency code introduced in Sierra Leone, which replaced the previous denomination in cents to Leones (Le). The ISO 4217 code introduced the currency change from 100 cents to 1 Le. This accounts for the change in absolute magnitudes reported in 2003 and 2011 compared to 1989.

Table 2

Standard Deviation of Log of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

198920032011
Standard deviation:
Overall1.45960.76270.6121
Conflict1.56610.60130.5602
Non-conflict1.39970.86080.6230
Change0.1664−0.2595−0.0628
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)n/a−0.4259n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)n/an/a−0.2292
Observations:343937026763
Treatment116716664041
Control227220362722

[i] Notes: “Change” denotes the difference in standard deviations between the conflict and non-conflict affected zones;

[ii] D-i-D1 and D-i-D2 are the raw differences-in-difference between 2003/1989 and 2011/1989 respectively; n/a denotes not applicable.

Table 3

Gini Coefficient for Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

198920032011
Gini Coefficient:
Overall0.672*** (0.008)0.442*** (0.008)0.3380*** (0.003)
Conflict0.659*** (0.009)0.377*** (0.012)0.302*** (0.005)
Non-conflict0.677*** (0.011)0.434*** (0.010)0.344*** (0.004)
Change−0.017 (0.014)−0.057*** (0.016)−0.042*** (0.006)
Difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)n/a−0.040** (0.021)n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)n/an/a−0.025 (0.015)
Observations:343937026763
Treatment116716664041
Control227220362722

Notes:

“Change” denotes the difference between conflict and non-conflict zones; bootstrapped standard errors with 250 replications are reported in parenthesis; D-i-D1 and D-i-D2 are the raw differences-in-difference between 2003/1989 and 2011/1989, respectively; n/a denotes not applicable; the significance levels are denoted as

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 4

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Zones at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and selected percentiles198920032011
Mean0.0526 (0.0621)−0.5447*** (0.0502)−0.3318*** (0.0403)
10th−0.2506*** (0.0611)−0.1923*** (0.0552)−0.0037 (0.0026)
25th−0.1037*** (0.0649)−0.3762*** (0.0413)−0.1453*** (0.1806
50th−0.0000 (0.1028)−0.4798*** (0.0354)−0.3444*** (0.0193)
75th0.3696*** (0.0777)−0.6325*** (0.0375)−0.4967*** (0.0217)
90th0.1589** (0.0813)−0.7974*** (0.0528)−0.5485*** (0.0317)
Observations:343937026763
Treatment116716664041
Control227220362722

Notes:

The significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1;

see text for the definition of conflict zones used here.

Table 5

Summary Statistics of Household Characteristics by Conflict Exposure

198920032011
ConflictNon-conflictConflictNon-conflictConflictNon-conflict
Head's characteristics:
Age44.43 (11.44)43.75 (11.91)46.80
13.99
46.19
14.29
45.70
14.68
45.49
13.83
Age squared2104.39 (1119.90)2056.01 (1193.83)2386.05
1461.48
2337.35
1483.03
2304.35
1515.08
2259.99
1409.94
Gender:
Male0.870.850.820.800.720.74
Female0.130.150.180.200.260.24
Education:
Primary0.680.560.090.080.080.09
High0.320.440.020.040.120.11
Secondary--0.120.200.050.21
No education--0.750.640.760.59
Marital Status:
Married0.920.920.840.790.810.77
Cohabit0.040.060.010.010.010.01
Other status0.050.090.150.160.150.15
Single0.020.020.010.030.030.06
Tribes:
Mende--0.380.37--
Temne--0.240.23--
Other tribes--0.380.40--
Religion:
Muslim----0.780.74
Christian----0.210.25
Other religions----0.010.01
Other Characteristics:
Urban0.330.350.300.400.170.48
Dependency ratio0.990.910.950.941.081.15
0.910.930.900.871.031.16
Household size6.165.296.286.115.645.61
4.053.342.612.852.472.67
Household size squared54.3739.1446.2845.4337.9838.76
69.7150.2240.4845.5535.6642.79
Sample size116722721666203627224041

[i] Notes: Standard deviations for continuous variables reported in parenthesis; conflict exposure refers to whether a household is located within the conflict-affected chiefdoms, defined as being subject to >8 years of rebel occupation.

Table 6

The Impact of Conflict on the Distribution of Expenditure using the Gini Coefficient

Estimation MethodsConflict Exposure
198920032011
(1) Unweighted0.0039 (0.0156)−0.0908*** (0.0126)−0.0051 (0.0050)
(2) Weighted0.0025 (0.0140)−0.0804*** (0.0125)0.0037 (0.0048)
(3) PS regressor0.0039 (0.0197)−0.0912*** (0.0152)−0.0030 (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)0.0108 (0.0184)−0.0552*** (0.0183)0.0048 (0.0081)
(5) IPW (ATT)0.0031 (0.0147)−0.0834*** (0.0125)−0.0001 (0.0048)
Observations:343937026763
Treatment116716664041
Control227220362722

Notes:

The estimates reported for (1) to (3) relate to the regression estimate γ^ from Eq. (2). Specifically, the different regression results are based on the following: (1) OLS without regression weights; (2) OLS with the propensity score as regression weights; (3) the propensity score is included as an additional covariate in the regression; (4) uses the propensity score matching technique with the RIF-based Gini; (5) uses the inverse probability weighting technique with the RIF-based Gini. Standard errors are reported in parentheses; the significance levels are defined as:

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Figure 4

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (1989).

Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using expression Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Figure 5

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2003).

Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Figure 6

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2011).

Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Table 7

Mean and Quantile Treatment Effects using the Log of Household Expenditure

Mean10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure−0.0831 (0.0588)−0.0560 (0.0825)−0.1853*** (0.0769)−0.0813 (0.1476)−0.0115 (0.0876)0.1183 (0.1213)
Observations3,4393,4223422342234223422
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.4437*** (0.0531)−0.1624*** (0.0547)−0.3065*** (0.0635)−0.3974*** (0.0392)−0.5515*** (0.0336)−0.6821*** (0.0579)
Observations370237023702370237023702
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.2601*** (0.0498)0.0786** (0.0332)−0.0390** (0.0189)−0.1401*** (0.0161)−0.2726*** (0.0269)−0.3013*** (0.0388)
Observations676367636763676367636763

Notes:

Seventeen observations were trimmed from the QTT analysis for 1989 with propensity scores below 0.0001 and none from the two subsequent years. The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables (see Table A2.7 in Appendix II). Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 8

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Alternative Conflict Measures

Estimation MethodsExposure (7 years cut-off)Exposure (above median dummy)
198920032011198920032011
(1) Unweighted0.0040 (0.0157)−0.0912*** (0.0128)−0.0055 (0.0052)0.0257 (0.0185)−0.0952*** (0.0141)−0.0147** (0.0051)
(2) Weighted0.0030 (0.0141)−0.0805*** (0.0131)0.0037 (0.0038)0.0263 (0.0214)−0.0811*** (0.0138)−0.0074 (0.0046)
(3) PS regressor0.0041 (0.0198)−0.0924*** (0.0157)−0.0035 (0.0052)0.0254 (0.0189)−0.0954*** (0.0152)−0.0139* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)0.0109 (0.0188)−0.0563*** (0.0189)0.0051 (0.0084)0.0365 (0.0194)−0.0768*** (0.0238)−0.0758 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT)0.0031 (0.0145)−0.0845*** (0.0132)−0.0001 (0.0056)0.0253 (0.0174)−0.0827*** (0.0138)−0.0168** (0.0053)
Observations:343937026763343937026763
Treatment116716664041195419654041
Control227220362722148517372722

Note:

The conflict exposure measure is based on either an occupation of ≥7 years or whether or not the deaths per chiefdom were above the national median; the different regression results are based on the following: (1) OLS without regression weights; (2) OLS with the propensity scores as regression weights; (3) the propensity score is included as an additional covariate in the regression model; (4) uses the propensity score matching technique; (5) uses the inverse probability weighting technique. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 9

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (using ≥7 years of rebel occupation as the cut-off)

Mean10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure−0.0841 (0.0598)−0.0520 (0.0885)−0.1803*** (0.0716)−0.0822 (0.1480)−0.0120 (0.0854)0.1180 (0.1214)
Observations343934393439343934393439
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.1468*** (0.0485)−0.0149 (0.0500)−0.0542 (0.0358)−0.0928*** (0.0318)−0.2208*** (0.0384)−0.4167*** (0.0512)
Observations37023702370237023702370
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.1607*** (0.0377)−0.0974** (0.0264)−0.0934*** (0.0265)−0.1065*** (0.0217)−0.1563*** (0.0285)−0.2119*** (0.0456)
Observations676367636763676367636763

Notes:

The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 10

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure using Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above the Median

Mean10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure0.1043 (0.0411)−0.0505 (0.0692)0.0661 (0.0776)0.2283 (0.1421)0.4849*** (0.0649)0.2627*** (0.0763)
Observations343934393439343934393439
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.1468*** (0.0485)−0.0255 (0.0481)−0.0761 (0.0379)−0.1594*** (0.0309)−0.3416*** (0.0451)−0.5074*** (0.0517)
Observations370237023702370237023702
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.1607*** (0.0377)−0.0974** (0.0264)−0.0934*** (0.0265)−0.1065*** (0.0217)−0.1563*** (0.0285)−0.2119*** (0.0456)
Observations676367636763676367636763

Notes:

The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 11

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Self-reported Conflict Events

Conflict Events
Estimation Methods2003
(1) Unweighted−0.0802*** (0.0183)
(2) Weighted−0.0751*** (0.0214)
(3) PS regressor−0.0800*** (0.0169)
(4) Matching (ATT)−0.0691*** (0.0265)
(5) IPW (ATT)−0.0736*** (0.0395)
Observations:3696
Treatment1319
Control2377

Note:

The conflict measure is self-reported (see text). The estimates reported for (1) to (3) relate to the regression estimate ^ from Eq. (2). Specifically, the different regression results are based on the following: (1) OLS without regression weights; (2) OLS with the propensity score as regression weights; (3) the propensity score is used as an additional covariate in the regression model; (4) uses the propensity score matching technique; (5) uses the inverse probability weighting technique. Standard errors in parentheses; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table 12

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects of Conflict on Log Household Expenditure using Self-reported Conflict Events

OLS10th25th50th75th90th
2003:
Conflict events−0.446*** (0.0460)−0.1796*** (0.0561)−0.2906*** (0.0582)−0.3885*** (0.0375)−0.5469*** (0.0381)−0.6834*** (0.0576)
Observations369636963696369636963696

Notes:

The conflict measure is self-reported (see text). The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A1

Chiefdom Allocation to “Treatment” and “Control” Group

Years in SurveyChiefdoms in Treatment GroupChiefdoms in Control Group
1989, 2003, and 2011Eastern Regions:
Biriwa
Bombali Shebro
Bum
Dama
Fiama
Jawie
Mandu
Lower Bambara
Nimikoro
Njaluahun
Nongowa
Simbaru
Small Bo
Tankoro
Northern Region
Gbanti-Kamaranka
Gbendembu Ndowahun
Gbinleh Dixing
Southern Region:
Jong
Kaiyamba
Panga Kabone
Valunia
Bumpeh
Fakunya
Northern Region:
Koya
Magbema
Makari Gbanti
Malal
Mambolo
Masungbala
Sanda Loko
Sella Limba
Eastern Region:
Malegohun
Gbense
Gorama Kono
Northern Region:
Paki Masabong
Samu
Dembelia Sinkunia
Follosaba Dembelia
Sulima
Wara Wara Yagala
Kaffu Bullom
Lokomasama
Maforki
Marampa
Gbonkolenken
Kholifa Mabang
Kunike Barina
Southern Region:
Bagbo
Baoma
Jaiama Bongor
Kakua
Komboya
Tikonko
Imperi
Kpanga Kemo
Bumpeh
Upper Banta
Barri
Western Area
Mountain
York Rural
Waterloo
Central 1
Central 2
East 1
East 2
East 3
West 1
West 2
West 3
2003 and 2011 onlyEastern Regions:
Kissi Kama
Luawa
Penguia
Yawei
Gorama Mende
Langrama
Gbane
Kamara
Lei
Nimiyama
Sandor
Northern Region:
Safroko Limba
Sanda Tendaren
Tambakka
Tonko Limba
Mongo
Neya
Sengbe
Bureh Kasseh
Buya Romende
Dibia
Sanda Magbolontor
Southern Region:
Jong
Nongoba Bullom
Kamajei
Kongbora
Makpele
Pejeh
Soro Gbema
Eastern Regions:
Kissi Tongi
Kpeje Bongre
Kpeje West
Dodo
Gaura
Kandu Lekpeama
Nomo
Tunkia
Wandor
Mafindor
Soa
Malema
Nomo
Niawa
Northern Region:
Libeisaygahun
Magbaimba
Ndorhahun
Kasunko
Nieni
Wara Wara Bafodia
Masimera
Kafe Simira
Kalansogoia
Tane
Paki Masonbong
Braiama
Diang
Southern region:
Bumpe Ngawo
Niawa Lenga
Bendu Cha
Sogbini
Bagruwa
Kagboro
Kowa
Lower Banta
Timdale
Gallinas Peri
Mano Sakrim
Yakemo Kpukumu Krim
Badjia
Bagbo
Wunde
Kwamebi Krim- Beduma
Sittia- Yonni
Yawbeko- Talia
Dasse
Kori
Ribbi
Kpaka
Sowa
Figure A1

Conflict Exposure by Rebel Occupation based on the Presence of Rebel Headquarters by Chiefdom.

Table A2.1

Kolmogorov–Smirnov Tests for Equality of Distributions by Conflict Exposure

YearsDistanceExact Prob-value
19890.04920.121
20030.26890.000
20110.25150.000

[i] Notes: The null hypothesis is that the empirical distribution functions across treatment (conflict) and control (non-conflict) groups are equal. The “Distance” is the maximum vertical distance between the CDFs for the two groups and the prob-value is used to determine whether the distance is statistically significant.

Table A2.2

Logistic Treatment Assignment Model for Conflict Exposure and Conflict Events

198920032011
Conflict ExposureConflict ExposureConflict EventsConflict Exposure
Age of head0.00789 (0.0199)0.0183 (0.0138)0.0275* (0.0159)−0.0364*** (0.0104)
Age of head square−0.000157 (0.000200)−0.000162 (0.000131)−0.000195 (0.000151)0.000330*** (0.00010)
Head being male0.206 (0.126)−0.192 (0.154)0.620*** (0.185)−0.0641 (0.0826)
Head married−0.0147 (0.163)−0.164 (0.166)−0.568*** (0.208)−0.0602 (0.0991)
Dependency ratio0.0241 (0.0554)0.0530 (0.0499)−0.0995* (0.0589)−0.0231 (0.0308)
Urban−0.118 (0.149)−0.978*** (0.246)−1.082*** (0.284)−2.127*** (0.201)
Head with prim educ0.535*** (0.0804)−0.0175 (0.160)0.882*** (0.224)−0.228* (0.125)
Head with higher educ-−0.469** (0.206)−0.478** (0.204)−0.0725 (0.123)
Household size−0.0322 (0.0376)0.210*** (0.0492)−0.275*** (0.0601)−0.00466 (0.0297)
Head with prim edu × urban-0.408* (0.243)−0.767** (0.303)0.0987 (0.218)
Head male × urban-0.131 (0.257)−1.142*** (0.298)−0.310** (0.157)
Dependency ratio × urban0.0530 (0.0873)−0.0706 (0.0799)−0.326*** (0.0948)−0.0557 (0.0545)
Household size square0.00615*** (0.00219)−0.0114*** (0.00304)0.00863** (0.00352)−0.00193 (0.00188)
Household size × urban0.00229 (0.0229)−0.0409 (0.0268)0.0953*** (0.0297)0.0886*** (0.0225)
Head married × urban−0.200 (0.326)0.967*** (0.262)1.552*** (0.311)0.391** (0.170)
Head Muslim-0.330*** (0.0836)0.520*** (0.0940)−0.0841 (0.0771)
Head × Temne tribe-−0.0129 (0.0817)−1.711*** (0.0911)-
Head × Muslim × urban---0.151 (0.141)
Constant−1.294*** (0.486)−1.299*** (0.393)1.449*** (0.465)1.216*** (0.274)
LRT105.55137.95590.44781.24
LRT prob-value0.00000.000.000.000
McFadden R20.02400.02710.1290.0867
Observations3,4393,7023,6976,763

Notes:

“Conflict exposure” is based on the period of rebel occupation of the chiefdom by time (see text); “Conflict event” is based on household self-reported status (see text); standard errors are reported in parentheses; significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.3

Pre-war (1989) Covariate Balancing Tests Using Conflict Exposure

TreatedControl%Biast-valuep > tVariance Ratio
Age of head42.8643.01−1.20−0.480.630.98
Age of head sq1958.501971.20−1.10−0.450.651.07
Head male0.860.87−2.60−0.980.330.99
Head cohabiting0.930.93−0.90−0.340.731.02
Dependency ratio0.900.881.900.840.401.13
Urban0.340.36−3.20−1.170.241.00
Head with prim educ0.570.59−4.40−1.550.120.97
Head with higher educ0.430.414.501.550.120.97
Household size5.415.44−0.70−0.280.781.01
Household size sq41.5241.65−0.20−0.090.931.07
Head with prim educ × urban0.190.19−1.20−0.440.660.98
Head male × urban0.290.31−2.90−1.060.290.99

[i] Notes: % bias should lie in the interval [−5%, + 5%]; the variance ratio should lie within [0.5, 0.8) or (1.25, 2].

Table A2.4

Post-war (2003) Covariate Balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

TreatedControl%Biast-valuep >tVariance Ratio
Age of head46.8046.661.000.290.770.99
Age of head sq2386.002374.700.800.220.820.99
Head male0.820.83−4.90−1.470.140.87
Head married0.840.86−5.10−1.580.111.11
Dependency ratio0.950.941.500.440.661.10
Urban0.300.30−0.80−0.240.810.99
Head with prim educ0.090.090.300.090.931.01
Head with higher educ0.020.020.200.060.951.01
Household size6.286.251.300.400.691.01
Head prim educ × urban0.040.040.700.220.831.04
Head being male × urban0.250.25−0.60−0.170.860.98
Dependency ratio × urban0.300.30−0.20−0.080.941.08
Household size sq46.2845.751.200.380.711.01
Household size × urban1.871.90−0.80−0.240.810.99
Head married × urban0.250.26−1.60−0.460.650.98
Head a Muslim0.800.80−0.10−0.020.991.00
Head from Temne tribe0.240.240.300.070.941.00

[i] Notes: % bias should lie in the interval [−5%, + 5%]; the variance ratio should lie within [0.5, 0.8) or (1.25, 2].

Table A2.5

Post-war (2011) Covariate balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

TreatedControl%Biast-valuep > tVariance Ratio
Age of head45.7146.06−2.40−0.870.381.05
Head with primary educ0.070.060.900.360.721.05
Head with higher educ0.050.041.600.700.481.09
Head male0.730.74−2.20−0.780.441.03
Head married0.810.82−2.40−0.920.361.03
Dependency ratio1.081.09−0.80−0.300.771.01
Household size5.655.66−0.40−0.170.861.11
Age of head squared2304.412320.10−1.10−0.380.701.06
Urban0.170.17−0.20−0.090.930.99
Dependency ratio × urban0.190.19−0.40−0.190.851.04
Head being married × urban0.120.12−0.30−0.120.910.99
Head being male × urban0.110.12−0.80−0.360.720.97
Head with prim educ × urban0.020.02−0.10−0.060.960.99
Household size × urban0.950.930.500.220.821.01
Household size sq37.9837.451.300.540.591.11
Head a Muslim0.780.78−1.10−0.400.691.02
Head a Muslim × urban0.120.120.000.010.991.00

[i] Notes: %bias should lie in the interval [−5%, + 5%]; the variance ratio should lie within [0.5, 0.8) or (1.25, 2].

Table A2.6

Pre-war and Post-war Balancing Property Diagnostics

YearsPseudo R2LRT Chi-squaredprob > Chi-squaredMean BiasMedian BiasBR%Concern%Bad
1989:
Unmatched0.038137.330.0018.2021.8043.10*2.52*33.008.00
Matched0.00211.200.432.101.609.101.240.000.00
2003:
Unmatched0.149661.030.0018.4014.0097.6*0.7359.0012.00
Matched0.00319.840.2832.402.1013.001.460.000.00
2011:
Unmatched0.1281143.230.0025.0011.3089.71*1.0335.0024.00
Matched0.00110.790.8661.200.807.401.150.000.00

[i] Notes: Balancing property of “concern” if B > 25% with “bad” matching determined by whether R is outside the range [0.5; 2].

Table A2.7

Semi-parametric Local Logistic Treatment Assignment Regression Model – Quantile Treatment Effect Estimation for Conflict Exposure

Variables198920032011
Head's age0.0008615 (0.022450)0.00661** (0.00290)−0.00220 (0.0113)
Head's age sq−0.000124*** (3.93e–05)-−4.33e–05 (0.000104)
Head male−0.171 (0.146)0.626*** (0.186)0.338*** (0.0736)
Married head0.0970 (0.182)−0.657*** (0.210)−0.294 (0.261)
Dependency ratio−0.122** (0.0599)0.186 (0.122)0.173** (0.0779)
Urban settlement0.0205 (0.177)−1.974*** (0.282)−3.046*** (0.196)
Primary education−0.670*** (0.0944)0.957*** (0.235)0.472*** (0.165)
Higher education-0.790* (0.433)−0.493*** (0.0752)
Household size−0.0723* (0.0403)−0.149*** (0.0570)−0.152*** (0.0379)
Primary × urban-−0.867*** (0.306)−0.270 (0.216)
Head male × urban-−1.496*** (0.287)
Household size squared0.00192 (0.00225)0.00312 (0.00330)0.00336* (0.00196)
Household size × urban−0.0245 (0.0250)0.161*** (0.0291)0.195*** (0.0211)
Married × urban-1.843*** (0.297)0.424*** (0.142)
Muslim-0.545*** (0.126)−0.724*** (0.0999)
Temne tribe-−1.886*** (0.0915)-
Muslim × urban-0.222 (0.179)0.670*** (0.136)
Higher education × urban-−1.727*** (0.500)-
Dependency ratio × urban0.0843 (0.0945)−0.234*** (0.0523)
Dependency ratio squared-0.00934 (0.0131)
Constant2.523*** (0.227)1.651*** (0.310)2.444*** (0.348)
Observations343937026763

Notes:

“Conflict exposure” is based on the period of rebel occupation of the chiefdom by time (see text); standard errors are reported in parentheses; significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.8

Overidentification Tests for the IPW Procedure

YearsConflict Exposure
Test StatisticProb-value
198918.92610.1248
200329.97650.1187
201118.58190.3528

[i] Notes: The null hypothesis is that the set of covariates are balanced across treatment and control groups.

Table A2.9

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Affected Households (Self-reported) at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and percentiles2003
Mean−0.5345*** (0.0419)
10th−0.2045*** (0.0456)
25th−0.3553*** (0.0434)
50th−0.4663*** (0.0370)
75th−0.6084*** (0.0374)
90th−0.7859*** (0.0403)
Observations:3696
Treatment1319
Control2377

Notes:

The significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1;

see text for the definition of conflict zones used here.

Table A2.10

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using the Inverse Probability Weighting Procedure (without Freetown)

Conflict Exposure
198920032011
ATT0.0031 (0.0147)
3439
−0.0780*** (0.0127)
3582
−0.0003 (0.0047)
6,656
Observations:
Treatment116716664041
Control227219162615

Notes:

Standard errors are reported in parentheses; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.11

Quantile Treatment Effects on the Treated using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (without Freetown)

OLS10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure0.2066*** (0.0482)−0.0506 (0.0745)0.0661 (0.0817)0.2283 (0.1561)0.4849*** (0.0631)0.2627*** (0.0710)
Observations343934393439343934393439
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.3882*** (0.0512)−0.0872 (0.0594)−0.2025*** (0.0701)−0.3468** (0.0474)−0.5469*** (0.0407)−0.6848*** (0.0796)
Observations358235823582358235823582
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.2537*** (0.0499)0.0903** (0.0328)−0.0326 (0.0198)−0.1364*** (0.0167)−0.2692*** (0.0277)−0.3136*** (0.0344)
Observations665666566656665666566656

Notes: The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.12

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Inverse Probability Weighting (With 64 Chiefdoms) based on Conflict Exposure

Using 64 Chiefdoms
198920032011
ATT0.0031 (0.0147)−0.0950*** (0.0193)−0.0016 (0.0068)
Observations:343921563730
Treatment11678942230
Control227212621500

Notes:

Standard errors are reported in parentheses; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.13

Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure Based on Conflict Exposure with more than Eight Years of Rebel Occupation (with 64 chiefdoms)

Mean10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure0.2066*** (0.0482)−0.0506 (0.0745)0.0661 (0.0817)0.2283 (0.1561)0.4849*** (0.0631)0.2627*** (0.0710)
Observations343934393439343934393439
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.3918*** (0.0606)−0.1013 (0.0675)−0.2222*** (0.0465)−0.2961** (0.0404)−0.4577*** (0.0491)−0.6048*** (0.0532)
Observations215621562156215621562156
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.1625*** (0.0582)−0.0831** (0.0367)−0.0976*** (0.0290)−0.1405*** (0.0253)−0.2576*** (0.0324)−0.3235*** (0.0452)
Observations377837783778377837783778

Notes:

The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.14

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Estimation MethodsConflict Exposure Interacted with the above Median Deaths Dummy
198920032011
(1) Unweighted0.0232 (0.0195)−0.0948*** (0.0138)−0.0148** (0.0050)
(2) Weighted0.0252 (0.0224)−0.0810*** (0.0136)−0.0076 (0.0041)
(3) PS regressor0.0250 (0.0191)−0.0965*** (0.0153)−0.0139* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)0.0361 (0.0193−0.0772*** (0.0241)−0.0754 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT)0.0242 (0.0184)−0.0830*** (0.0137)−0.0170** (0.0052)
Observations:343937026763
Treatment195419654041
Control148517372722

Note:

The conflict exposure measure is based on a rebel occupation of ≥9 years interacted with whether or not the deaths per chiefdom were above the median; the different regression results are based on the following: (1) OLS without regression weights; (2) OLS with the propensity scores as regression weights; (3) the propensity score is included as an additional covariate in the regression model; (4) uses the propensity score matching technique; (5) uses the inverse probability weighting technique. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Table A2.15

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Mean10th25th50th75th90th
1989:
Conflict exposure0.1043 (0.0411)−0.0507 (0.0693)0.0664 (0.0778)0.2282 (0.1420)0.4757*** (0.0651)0.2630*** (0.0758)
Observations343934393439343934393439
2003:
Conflict exposure−0.1472*** (0.0486)−0.0265 (0.0483)−0.0762** (0.0378)−0.1585*** (0.0310)−0.3421*** (0.0462)−0.5065*** (0.0517)
Observations370237023702370237023702
2011:
Conflict exposure−0.1612*** (0.0377)−0.0980** (0.0271)−0.0933*** (0.0264)−0.1066*** (0.0218)−0.1562*** (0.0287)−0.2121*** (0.0447)
Observations676367636763676367636763

Notes:

The treatment assignment equation contains the following controls: head of household age and its quadratic, head of household gender, head of household education and marital status, household size and it quadratic; household dependency ratio; the household's settlement type; and a selection of interaction variables. Bootstrapped standard errors are reported in parentheses with 250 replications; the significance levels are denoted by

*** p < 0.01,

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1.

Language: English
Accepted on: Oct 8, 2022
Published online: Dec 4, 2022
Published in print: Jan 1, 2022
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
JEL:

© 2022 Barry Reilly, Hannah Sam, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.