The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare

Barry Reilly; Hannah Sam

doi:10.2478/izajodm-2022-0009

Figures & Tables

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989).

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003).

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011).

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (1989).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using expression Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2003).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2011).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Conflict Exposure by Rebel Occupation based on the Presence of Rebel Headquarters by Chiefdom.

Mean and Quantile Treatment Effects using the Log of Household Expenditure

	Mean	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	−0.0831 (0.0588)	−0.0560 (0.0825)	−0.1853^*** (0.0769)	−0.0813 (0.1476)	−0.0115 (0.0876)	0.1183 (0.1213)
Observations	3,439	3,422	3422	3422	3422	3422
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.4437^*** (0.0531)	−0.1624^*** (0.0547)	−0.3065^*** (0.0635)	−0.3974^*** (0.0392)	−0.5515^*** (0.0336)	−0.6821^*** (0.0579)
Observations	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.2601^*** (0.0498)	0.0786^** (0.0332)	−0.0390^** (0.0189)	−0.1401^*** (0.0161)	−0.2726^*** (0.0269)	−0.3013^*** (0.0388)
Observations	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Affected Households (Self-reported) at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and percentiles	2003
Mean	−0.5345^*** (0.0419)
10th	−0.2045^*** (0.0456)
25th	−0.3553^*** (0.0434)
50th	−0.4663^*** (0.0370)
75th	−0.6084^*** (0.0374)
90th	−0.7859^*** (0.0403)
Observations:	3696
Treatment	1319
Control	2377

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

	Mean	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	0.1043 (0.0411)	−0.0507 (0.0693)	0.0664 (0.0778)	0.2282 (0.1420)	0.4757^*** (0.0651)	0.2630^*** (0.0758)
Observations	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.1472^*** (0.0486)	−0.0265 (0.0483)	−0.0762^** (0.0378)	−0.1585^*** (0.0310)	−0.3421^*** (0.0462)	−0.5065^*** (0.0517)
Observations	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.1612^*** (0.0377)	−0.0980^** (0.0271)	−0.0933^*** (0.0264)	−0.1066^*** (0.0218)	−0.1562^*** (0.0287)	−0.2121^*** (0.0447)
Observations	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects of Conflict on Log Household Expenditure using Self-reported Conflict Events

	OLS	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
2003:
Conflict events	−0.446^*** (0.0460)	−0.1796^*** (0.0561)	−0.2906^*** (0.0582)	−0.3885^*** (0.0375)	−0.5469^*** (0.0381)	−0.6834^*** (0.0576)
Observations	3696	3696	3696	3696	3696	3696

Semi-parametric Local Logistic Treatment Assignment Regression Model – Quantile Treatment Effect Estimation for Conflict Exposure

Variables	1989	2003	2011
Head's age	0.0008615 (0.022450)	0.00661^** (0.00290)	−0.00220 (0.0113)
Head's age sq	−0.000124^*** (3.93e–05)	-	−4.33e–05 (0.000104)
Head male	−0.171 (0.146)	0.626^*** (0.186)	0.338^*** (0.0736)
Married head	0.0970 (0.182)	−0.657^*** (0.210)	−0.294 (0.261)
Dependency ratio	−0.122^** (0.0599)	0.186 (0.122)	0.173^** (0.0779)
Urban settlement	0.0205 (0.177)	−1.974^*** (0.282)	−3.046^*** (0.196)
Primary education	−0.670^*** (0.0944)	0.957^*** (0.235)	0.472^*** (0.165)
Higher education	-	0.790^* (0.433)	−0.493^*** (0.0752)
Household size	−0.0723^* (0.0403)	−0.149^*** (0.0570)	−0.152^*** (0.0379)
Primary × urban	-	−0.867^*** (0.306)	−0.270 (0.216)
Head male × urban	-	−1.496^*** (0.287)
Household size squared	0.00192 (0.00225)	0.00312 (0.00330)	0.00336^* (0.00196)
Household size × urban	−0.0245 (0.0250)	0.161^*** (0.0291)	0.195^*** (0.0211)
Married × urban	-	1.843^*** (0.297)	0.424^*** (0.142)
Muslim	-	0.545^*** (0.126)	−0.724^*** (0.0999)
Temne tribe	-	−1.886^*** (0.0915)	-
Muslim × urban	-	0.222 (0.179)	0.670^*** (0.136)
Higher education × urban	-	−1.727^*** (0.500)	-
Dependency ratio × urban	0.0843 (0.0945)		−0.234^*** (0.0523)
Dependency ratio squared	-		0.00934 (0.0131)
Constant	2.523^*** (0.227)	1.651^*** (0.310)	2.444^*** (0.348)
Observations	3439	3702	6763

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using the Inverse Probability Weighting Procedure (without Freetown)

	Conflict Exposure

	1989	2003	2011
ATT	0.0031 (0.0147)3439	−0.0780^*** (0.0127)3582	−0.0003 (0.0047)6,656
Observations:
Treatment	1167	1666	4041
Control	2272	1916	2615

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Zones at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and selected percentiles	1989	2003	2011
Mean	0.0526 (0.0621)	−0.5447^*** (0.0502)	−0.3318^*** (0.0403)
10th	−0.2506^*** (0.0611)	−0.1923^*** (0.0552)	−0.0037 (0.0026)
25th	−0.1037^*** (0.0649)	−0.3762^*** (0.0413)	−0.1453^*** (0.1806
50th	−0.0000 (0.1028)	−0.4798^*** (0.0354)	−0.3444^*** (0.0193)
75th	0.3696^*** (0.0777)	−0.6325^*** (0.0375)	−0.4967^*** (0.0217)
90th	0.1589^** (0.0813)	−0.7974^*** (0.0528)	−0.5485^*** (0.0317)
Observations:	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1167	1666	4041
Control	2272	2036	2722

Summary Statistics of Household Characteristics by Conflict Exposure

	1989		2003		2011

	Conflict	Non-conflict	Conflict	Non-conflict	Conflict	Non-conflict
Head's characteristics:
Age	44.43 (11.44)	43.75 (11.91)	46.8013.99	46.1914.29	45.7014.68	45.4913.83
Age squared	2104.39 (1119.90)	2056.01 (1193.83)	2386.051461.48	2337.351483.03	2304.351515.08	2259.991409.94
Gender:
Male	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.80	0.72	0.74
Female	0.13	0.15	0.18	0.20	0.26	0.24
Education:
Primary	0.68	0.56	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.09
High	0.32	0.44	0.02	0.04	0.12	0.11
Secondary	-	-	0.12	0.20	0.05	0.21
No education	-	-	0.75	0.64	0.76	0.59
Marital Status:
Married	0.92	0.92	0.84	0.79	0.81	0.77
Cohabit	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
Other status	0.05	0.09	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.15
Single	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.06
Tribes:
Mende	-	-	0.38	0.37	-	-
Temne	-	-	0.24	0.23	-	-
Other tribes	-	-	0.38	0.40	-	-
Religion:
Muslim	-	-	-	-	0.78	0.74
Christian	-	-	-	-	0.21	0.25
Other religions	-	-	-	-	0.01	0.01
Other Characteristics:
Urban	0.33	0.35	0.30	0.40	0.17	0.48
Dependency ratio	0.99	0.91	0.95	0.94	1.08	1.15
Dependency ratio	0.91	0.93	0.90	0.87	1.03	1.16
Household size	6.16	5.29	6.28	6.11	5.64	5.61
Household size	4.05	3.34	2.61	2.85	2.47	2.67
Household size squared	54.37	39.14	46.28	45.43	37.98	38.76
Household size squared	69.71	50.22	40.48	45.55	35.66	42.79
Sample size	1167	2272	1666	2036	2722	4041

Logistic Treatment Assignment Model for Conflict Exposure and Conflict Events

	1989	2003		2011

	Conflict Exposure	Conflict Exposure	Conflict Events	Conflict Exposure
Age of head	0.00789 (0.0199)	0.0183 (0.0138)	0.0275^* (0.0159)	−0.0364^*** (0.0104)
Age of head square	−0.000157 (0.000200)	−0.000162 (0.000131)	−0.000195 (0.000151)	0.000330^*** (0.00010)
Head being male	0.206 (0.126)	−0.192 (0.154)	0.620^*** (0.185)	−0.0641 (0.0826)
Head married	−0.0147 (0.163)	−0.164 (0.166)	−0.568^*** (0.208)	−0.0602 (0.0991)
Dependency ratio	0.0241 (0.0554)	0.0530 (0.0499)	−0.0995^* (0.0589)	−0.0231 (0.0308)
Urban	−0.118 (0.149)	−0.978^*** (0.246)	−1.082^*** (0.284)	−2.127^*** (0.201)
Head with prim educ	0.535^*** (0.0804)	−0.0175 (0.160)	0.882^*** (0.224)	−0.228^* (0.125)
Head with higher educ	-	−0.469^** (0.206)	−0.478^** (0.204)	−0.0725 (0.123)
Household size	−0.0322 (0.0376)	0.210^*** (0.0492)	−0.275^*** (0.0601)	−0.00466 (0.0297)
Head with prim edu × urban	-	0.408^* (0.243)	−0.767^** (0.303)	0.0987 (0.218)
Head male × urban	-	0.131 (0.257)	−1.142^*** (0.298)	−0.310^** (0.157)
Dependency ratio × urban	0.0530 (0.0873)	−0.0706 (0.0799)	−0.326^*** (0.0948)	−0.0557 (0.0545)
Household size square	0.00615^*** (0.00219)	−0.0114^*** (0.00304)	0.00863^** (0.00352)	−0.00193 (0.00188)
Household size × urban	0.00229 (0.0229)	−0.0409 (0.0268)	0.0953^*** (0.0297)	0.0886^*** (0.0225)
Head married × urban	−0.200 (0.326)	0.967^*** (0.262)	1.552^*** (0.311)	0.391^** (0.170)
Head Muslim	-	0.330^*** (0.0836)	0.520^*** (0.0940)	−0.0841 (0.0771)
Head × Temne tribe	-	−0.0129 (0.0817)	−1.711^*** (0.0911)	-
Head × Muslim × urban	-	-	-	0.151 (0.141)
Constant	−1.294^*** (0.486)	−1.299^*** (0.393)	1.449^*** (0.465)	1.216^*** (0.274)
LRT	105.55	137.95	590.44	781.24
LRT prob-value	0.0000	0.00	0.00	0.000
McFadden R²	0.0240	0.0271	0.129	0.0867
Observations	3,439	3,702	3,697	6,763

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Alternative Conflict Measures

Estimation Methods	Exposure (7 years cut-off)			Exposure (above median dummy)

	1989	2003	2011	1989	2003	2011
(1) Unweighted	0.0040 (0.0157)	−0.0912^*** (0.0128)	−0.0055 (0.0052)	0.0257 (0.0185)	−0.0952^*** (0.0141)	−0.0147^** (0.0051)
(2) Weighted	0.0030 (0.0141)	−0.0805^*** (0.0131)	0.0037 (0.0038)	0.0263 (0.0214)	−0.0811^*** (0.0138)	−0.0074 (0.0046)
(3) PS regressor	0.0041 (0.0198)	−0.0924^*** (0.0157)	−0.0035 (0.0052)	0.0254 (0.0189)	−0.0954^*** (0.0152)	−0.0139^* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)	0.0109 (0.0188)	−0.0563^*** (0.0189)	0.0051 (0.0084)	0.0365 (0.0194)	−0.0768^*** (0.0238)	−0.0758 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT)	0.0031 (0.0145)	−0.0845^*** (0.0132)	−0.0001 (0.0056)	0.0253 (0.0174)	−0.0827^*** (0.0138)	−0.0168^** (0.0053)
Observations:	3439	3702	6763	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1167	1666	4041	1954	1965	4041
Control	2272	2036	2722	1485	1737	2722

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure using Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above the Median

	Mean	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	0.1043 (0.0411)	−0.0505 (0.0692)	0.0661 (0.0776)	0.2283 (0.1421)	0.4849^*** (0.0649)	0.2627^*** (0.0763)
Observations	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.1468^*** (0.0485)	−0.0255 (0.0481)	−0.0761 (0.0379)	−0.1594^*** (0.0309)	−0.3416^*** (0.0451)	−0.5074^*** (0.0517)
Observations	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.1607^*** (0.0377)	−0.0974^** (0.0264)	−0.0934^*** (0.0265)	−0.1065^*** (0.0217)	−0.1563^*** (0.0285)	−0.2119^*** (0.0456)
Observations	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763

The Impact of Conflict on the Distribution of Expenditure using the Gini Coefficient

Estimation Methods	Conflict Exposure

	1989	2003	2011
(1) Unweighted	0.0039 (0.0156)	−0.0908^*** (0.0126)	−0.0051 (0.0050)
(2) Weighted	0.0025 (0.0140)	−0.0804^*** (0.0125)	0.0037 (0.0048)
(3) PS regressor	0.0039 (0.0197)	−0.0912^*** (0.0152)	−0.0030 (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)	0.0108 (0.0184)	−0.0552^*** (0.0183)	0.0048 (0.0081)
(5) IPW (ATT)	0.0031 (0.0147)	−0.0834^*** (0.0125)	−0.0001 (0.0048)
Observations:	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1167	1666	4041
Control	2272	2036	2722

Standard Deviation of Log of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

	1989	2003	2011
Standard deviation:
Overall	1.4596	0.7627	0.6121
Conflict	1.5661	0.6013	0.5602
Non-conflict	1.3997	0.8608	0.6230
Change	0.1664	−0.2595	−0.0628
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)	n/a	−0.4259	n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)	n/a	n/a	−0.2292
Observations:	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1167	1666	4041
Control	2272	2036	2722

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Self-reported Conflict Events

	Conflict Events

Estimation Methods	2003
(1) Unweighted	−0.0802^*** (0.0183)
(2) Weighted	−0.0751^*** (0.0214)
(3) PS regressor	−0.0800^*** (0.0169)
(4) Matching (ATT)	−0.0691^*** (0.0265)
(5) IPW (ATT)	−0.0736^*** (0.0395)
Observations:	3696
Treatment	1319
Control	2377

Post-war (2011) Covariate balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

	Treated	Control	%Bias	t-value	p > t	Variance Ratio
Age of head	45.71	46.06	−2.40	−0.87	0.38	1.05
Head with primary educ	0.07	0.06	0.90	0.36	0.72	1.05
Head with higher educ	0.05	0.04	1.60	0.70	0.48	1.09
Head male	0.73	0.74	−2.20	−0.78	0.44	1.03
Head married	0.81	0.82	−2.40	−0.92	0.36	1.03
Dependency ratio	1.08	1.09	−0.80	−0.30	0.77	1.01
Household size	5.65	5.66	−0.40	−0.17	0.86	1.11
Age of head squared	2304.41	2320.10	−1.10	−0.38	0.70	1.06
Urban	0.17	0.17	−0.20	−0.09	0.93	0.99
Dependency ratio × urban	0.19	0.19	−0.40	−0.19	0.85	1.04
Head being married × urban	0.12	0.12	−0.30	−0.12	0.91	0.99
Head being male × urban	0.11	0.12	−0.80	−0.36	0.72	0.97
Head with prim educ × urban	0.02	0.02	−0.10	−0.06	0.96	0.99
Household size × urban	0.95	0.93	0.50	0.22	0.82	1.01
Household size sq	37.98	37.45	1.30	0.54	0.59	1.11
Head a Muslim	0.78	0.78	−1.10	−0.40	0.69	1.02
Head a Muslim × urban	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.01	0.99	1.00

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Estimation Methods	Conflict Exposure Interacted with the above Median Deaths Dummy

	1989	2003	2011
(1) Unweighted	0.0232 (0.0195)	−0.0948^*** (0.0138)	−0.0148^** (0.0050)
(2) Weighted	0.0252 (0.0224)	−0.0810^*** (0.0136)	−0.0076 (0.0041)
(3) PS regressor	0.0250 (0.0191)	−0.0965^*** (0.0153)	−0.0139^* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT)	0.0361 (0.0193	−0.0772^*** (0.0241)	−0.0754 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT)	0.0242 (0.0184)	−0.0830^*** (0.0137)	−0.0170^** (0.0052)
Observations:	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1954	1965	4041
Control	1485	1737	2722

Post-war (2003) Covariate Balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

	Treated	Control	%Bias	t-value	p >t	Variance Ratio
Age of head	46.80	46.66	1.00	0.29	0.77	0.99
Age of head sq	2386.00	2374.70	0.80	0.22	0.82	0.99
Head male	0.82	0.83	−4.90	−1.47	0.14	0.87
Head married	0.84	0.86	−5.10	−1.58	0.11	1.11
Dependency ratio	0.95	0.94	1.50	0.44	0.66	1.10
Urban	0.30	0.30	−0.80	−0.24	0.81	0.99
Head with prim educ	0.09	0.09	0.30	0.09	0.93	1.01
Head with higher educ	0.02	0.02	0.20	0.06	0.95	1.01
Household size	6.28	6.25	1.30	0.40	0.69	1.01
Head prim educ × urban	0.04	0.04	0.70	0.22	0.83	1.04
Head being male × urban	0.25	0.25	−0.60	−0.17	0.86	0.98
Dependency ratio × urban	0.30	0.30	−0.20	−0.08	0.94	1.08
Household size sq	46.28	45.75	1.20	0.38	0.71	1.01
Household size × urban	1.87	1.90	−0.80	−0.24	0.81	0.99
Head married × urban	0.25	0.26	−1.60	−0.46	0.65	0.98
Head a Muslim	0.80	0.80	−0.10	−0.02	0.99	1.00
Head from Temne tribe	0.24	0.24	0.30	0.07	0.94	1.00

Pre-war and Post-war Balancing Property Diagnostics

Years	Pseudo R²	LRT Chi-squared	prob > Chi-squared	Mean Bias	Median Bias	B	R	%Concern	%Bad
1989:
Unmatched	0.038	137.33	0.00	18.20	21.80	43.10^*	2.52^*	33.00	8.00
Matched	0.002	11.20	0.43	2.10	1.60	9.10	1.24	0.00	0.00
2003:
Unmatched	0.149	661.03	0.00	18.40	14.00	97.6^*	0.73	59.00	12.00
Matched	0.003	19.84	0.283	2.40	2.10	13.00	1.46	0.00	0.00
2011:
Unmatched	0.128	1143.23	0.00	25.00	11.30	89.71^*	1.03	35.00	24.00
Matched	0.001	10.79	0.866	1.20	0.80	7.40	1.15	0.00	0.00

Chiefdom Allocation to “Treatment” and “Control” Group

Years in Survey	Chiefdoms in Treatment Group	Chiefdoms in Control Group
1989, 2003, and 2011	Eastern Regions:BiriwaBombali ShebroBumDamaFiamaJawieManduLower BambaraNimikoroNjaluahunNongowaSimbaruSmall BoTankoroNorthern RegionGbanti-KamarankaGbendembu NdowahunGbinleh DixingSouthern Region:JongKaiyambaPanga KaboneValuniaBumpehFakunyaNorthern Region:KoyaMagbemaMakari GbantiMalalMamboloMasungbalaSanda LokoSella Limba	Eastern Region:MalegohunGbenseGorama KonoNorthern Region:Paki MasabongSamuDembelia SinkuniaFollosaba DembeliaSulimaWara Wara YagalaKaffu BullomLokomasamaMaforkiMarampaGbonkolenkenKholifa MabangKunike BarinaSouthern Region:BagboBaomaJaiama BongorKakuaKomboyaTikonkoImperiKpanga KemoBumpehUpper BantaBarriWestern AreaMountainYork RuralWaterlooCentral 1Central 2East 1East 2East 3West 1West 2West 3

2003 and 2011 only	Eastern Regions:Kissi KamaLuawaPenguiaYaweiGorama MendeLangramaGbaneKamaraLeiNimiyamaSandorNorthern Region:Safroko LimbaSanda TendarenTambakkaTonko LimbaMongoNeyaSengbeBureh KassehBuya RomendeDibiaSanda MagbolontorSouthern Region:JongNongoba BullomKamajeiKongboraMakpelePejehSoro Gbema	Eastern Regions:Kissi TongiKpeje BongreKpeje WestDodoGauraKandu LekpeamaNomoTunkiaWandorMafindorSoaMalemaNomoNiawaNorthern Region:LibeisaygahunMagbaimbaNdorhahunKasunkoNieniWara Wara BafodiaMasimeraKafe SimiraKalansogoiaTanePaki MasonbongBraiamaDiangSouthern region:Bumpe NgawoNiawa LengaBendu ChaSogbiniBagruwaKagboroKowaLower BantaTimdaleGallinas PeriMano SakrimYakemo Kpukumu KrimBadjiaBagboWundeKwamebi Krim- BedumaSittia- YonniYawbeko- TaliaDasseKoriRibbiKpakaSowa

Kolmogorov–Smirnov Tests for Equality of Distributions by Conflict Exposure

Years	Distance	Exact Prob-value
1989	0.0492	0.121
2003	0.2689	0.000
2011	0.2515	0.000

Gini Coefficient for Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

	1989	2003	2011
Gini Coefficient:
Overall	0.672^*** (0.008)	0.442^*** (0.008)	0.3380^*** (0.003)
Conflict	0.659^*** (0.009)	0.377^*** (0.012)	0.302^*** (0.005)
Non-conflict	0.677^*** (0.011)	0.434^*** (0.010)	0.344^*** (0.004)
Change	−0.017 (0.014)	−0.057^*** (0.016)	−0.042^*** (0.006)
Difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)	n/a	−0.040^** (0.021)	n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)	n/a	n/a	−0.025 (0.015)
Observations:	3439	3702	6763
Treatment	1167	1666	4041
Control	2272	2036	2722

Overidentification Tests for the IPW Procedure

Years	Conflict Exposure

	Test Statistic	Prob-value
1989	18.9261	0.1248
2003	29.9765	0.1187
2011	18.5819	0.3528

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (using ≥7 years of rebel occupation as the cut-off)

	Mean	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	−0.0841 (0.0598)	−0.0520 (0.0885)	−0.1803^*** (0.0716)	−0.0822 (0.1480)	−0.0120 (0.0854)	0.1180 (0.1214)
Observations	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.1468^*** (0.0485)	−0.0149 (0.0500)	−0.0542 (0.0358)	−0.0928^*** (0.0318)	−0.2208^*** (0.0384)	−0.4167^*** (0.0512)
Observations	3702	3702	3702	3702	3702	370
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.1607^*** (0.0377)	−0.0974^** (0.0264)	−0.0934^*** (0.0265)	−0.1065^*** (0.0217)	−0.1563^*** (0.0285)	−0.2119^*** (0.0456)
Observations	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763	6763

Pre-war (1989) Covariate Balancing Tests Using Conflict Exposure

	Treated	Control	%Bias	t-value	p > t	Variance Ratio
Age of head	42.86	43.01	−1.20	−0.48	0.63	0.98
Age of head sq	1958.50	1971.20	−1.10	−0.45	0.65	1.07
Head male	0.86	0.87	−2.60	−0.98	0.33	0.99
Head cohabiting	0.93	0.93	−0.90	−0.34	0.73	1.02
Dependency ratio	0.90	0.88	1.90	0.84	0.40	1.13
Urban	0.34	0.36	−3.20	−1.17	0.24	1.00
Head with prim educ	0.57	0.59	−4.40	−1.55	0.12	0.97
Head with higher educ	0.43	0.41	4.50	1.55	0.12	0.97
Household size	5.41	5.44	−0.70	−0.28	0.78	1.01
Household size sq	41.52	41.65	−0.20	−0.09	0.93	1.07
Head with prim educ × urban	0.19	0.19	−1.20	−0.44	0.66	0.98
Head male × urban	0.29	0.31	−2.90	−1.06	0.29	0.99

Sierra Leone Household Expenditure Percentile Ratios by Conflict Exposure

	90th–10th	90th–50th	50th–10th

	50th	50th	50th
1989:
Overall	10.1315	9.3909	0.7406
Conflict	8.1130	7.2757	0.8373
Non-conflict	9.3891	8.6631	0.7260
Change	−1.2761	−1.3874	0.1113
2003:
Overall	2.5614	2.0107	0.5507
Conflict	1.6637	1.1458	0.5178
Non-conflict	3.2174	2.6255	0.5919
Change	−1.5537	−1.4797	−0.0741
2011:
Overall	1.7592	1.2537	0.5055
Conflict	1.4517	0.9520	0.4994
Non-conflict	1.8487	1.3408	0.5078
Change	−0.3970	−0.3888	−0.0084
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989)	−0.2776	−0.0923	−0.1854
D-i-D2 (2011–1989)	0.8791	0.9986	−0.1197

Quantile Treatment Effects on the Treated using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (without Freetown)

	OLS	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	0.2066^*** (0.0482)	−0.0506 (0.0745)	0.0661 (0.0817)	0.2283 (0.1561)	0.4849^*** (0.0631)	0.2627^*** (0.0710)
Observations	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.3882^*** (0.0512)	−0.0872 (0.0594)	−0.2025^*** (0.0701)	−0.3468^** (0.0474)	−0.5469^*** (0.0407)	−0.6848^*** (0.0796)
Observations	3582	3582	3582	3582	3582	3582
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.2537^*** (0.0499)	0.0903^** (0.0328)	−0.0326 (0.0198)	−0.1364^*** (0.0167)	−0.2692^*** (0.0277)	−0.3136^*** (0.0344)
Observations	6656	6656	6656	6656	6656	6656

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Inverse Probability Weighting (With 64 Chiefdoms) based on Conflict Exposure

	Using 64 Chiefdoms

	1989	2003	2011
ATT	0.0031 (0.0147)	−0.0950^*** (0.0193)	−0.0016 (0.0068)
Observations:	3439	2156	3730
Treatment	1167	894	2230
Control	2272	1262	1500

Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure Based on Conflict Exposure with more than Eight Years of Rebel Occupation (with 64 chiefdoms)

	Mean	10th	25th	50th	75th	90th
1989:
Conflict exposure	0.2066^*** (0.0482)	−0.0506 (0.0745)	0.0661 (0.0817)	0.2283 (0.1561)	0.4849^*** (0.0631)	0.2627^*** (0.0710)
Observations	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439	3439
2003:
Conflict exposure	−0.3918^*** (0.0606)	−0.1013 (0.0675)	−0.2222^*** (0.0465)	−0.2961^** (0.0404)	−0.4577^*** (0.0491)	−0.6048^*** (0.0532)
Observations	2156	2156	2156	2156	2156	2156
2011:
Conflict exposure	−0.1625^*** (0.0582)	−0.0831^** (0.0367)	−0.0976^*** (0.0290)	−0.1405^*** (0.0253)	−0.2576^*** (0.0324)	−0.3235^*** (0.0452)
Observations	3778	3778	3778	3778	3778	3778

The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure A1

Mean and Quantile Treatment Effects using the Log of Household Expenditure

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Affected Households (Self-reported) at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects of Conflict on Log Household Expenditure using Self-reported Conflict Events

Semi-parametric Local Logistic Treatment Assignment Regression Model – Quantile Treatment Effect Estimation for Conflict Exposure

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using the Inverse Probability Weighting Procedure (without Freetown)

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Zones at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Summary Statistics of Household Characteristics by Conflict Exposure

Logistic Treatment Assignment Model for Conflict Exposure and Conflict Events

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Alternative Conflict Measures

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure using Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above the Median

The Impact of Conflict on the Distribution of Expenditure using the Gini Coefficient

Standard Deviation of Log of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Self-reported Conflict Events

Post-war (2011) Covariate balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Post-war (2003) Covariate Balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

Pre-war and Post-war Balancing Property Diagnostics

Chiefdom Allocation to “Treatment” and “Control” Group

Kolmogorov–Smirnov Tests for Equality of Distributions by Conflict Exposure

Gini Coefficient for Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

Overidentification Tests for the IPW Procedure

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (using ≥7 years of rebel occupation as the cut-off)

Pre-war (1989) Covariate Balancing Tests Using Conflict Exposure

Sierra Leone Household Expenditure Percentile Ratios by Conflict Exposure

Quantile Treatment Effects on the Treated using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (without Freetown)

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Inverse Probability Weighting (With 64 Chiefdoms) based on Conflict Exposure

Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure Based on Conflict Exposure with more than Eight Years of Rebel Occupation (with 64 chiefdoms)

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