Temporary international migration, shocks and informal finance: analysis using panel data

Tanika Chakraborty; Manish Pandey

doi:10.2478/izajodm-2022-0008

Figures & Tables

Summary of shocks (2010–2013)

Variable	Mean	SD	Max
Drought	0.232	0.422	1
Rain and landslide	0.211	0.408	1
Winter and frost	0.379	0.485	1
Earthquake	0.162	0.368	1
Pest	0.193	0.394	1

Migration and shocks

	1b/se	2b/se	3b/se	4b/se	5b/se	6b/se
Drought_t−1	0.038^* (0.022)					0.040^* (0.023)
Rain and landslide_t−1		−0.002 (0.021)				0.009 (0.022)
Winter and frost _t−1			−0.041^** (0.020)			−0.045^** (0.020)
Earthquake _t−1				−0.009 (0.028)		−0.012 (0.027)
Pest _t−1					0.015 (0.017)	0.012 (0.019)
Constant	0.164^*** (0.023)	0.164^*** (0.026)	0.194^*** (0.030)	0.136^*** (0.024)	0.160^*** (0.025)	0.168^*** (0.027)
Observations	5,209	5,209	5,209	5,209	5,209	5,209
Households	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781
Household FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year × oblast	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Clustered SE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Migration and shocks: village versus city

	1b/se	2b/se	b/se	b/se	b/se
Drought_t−1	0.041^* (0.022)
City × drought_t−1	−0.014 (0.035)
Rain and landslide		0.001 (0.022)
City × rain and landslide_t−1		0.003 (0.045)
Winter and frost_t−1			−0.026 (0.020)
City × winter and frost_t−1			0.028 (0.029)
Earthquake _t−1				−0.018 (0.028)
City × earthquake_t−1				0.027 (0.041)
Pest_t−1					0.015 (0.018)
City × pest_t−1					−0.022 (0.052)
City significance test
Ho: shock + city × shock=0	Accept	Accept	Accept	Accept	Accept
Observations	8,347	8,347	8,347	8,347	8,347
Households	2,976	2,976	2,976	2,976	2,976
Household FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year × oblast	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Clustered SE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Migrant and non-migrant households

Year	Non-migrant	Migrant	Fraction migrant
2010	1,513	271	0.152
2011	1,446	320	0.181
2012	1,438	341	0.192
2013	1,329	357	0.212

Migration and shocks with controls

	1b/se	2b/se	3b/se	4b/se	5b/se	6
Drought_t−1	0.042^* (0.023)					0.044^* (0.024)
Rain and landslide _t−1		−0.002 (0.021)				0.008 (0.022)
Winter and frost _t−1			−0.039^* (0.022)			−0.042^* (0.022)
Earthquake _t−1				−0.006 (0.030)		−0.008 (0.029)
Pest_t−1					0.014 (0.019)	0.010 (0.020)
Constant	−0.371^*** (0.101)	−0.399^*** (0.103)	−0.337^*** (0.101)	−0.399^*** (0.102)	−0.388^*** (0.103)	−0.365^*** (0.100)
Household size	0.045^*** (0.010)	0.045^*** (0.010)	0.045^*** (0.010)	0.045^*** (0.010)	0.045^*** (0.010)	0.045^*** (0.010)
Male fraction	0.085 (0.082)	0.084 (0.083)	0.088 (0.083)	0.083 (0.083)	0.082 (0.083)	0.087 (0.082)
Adult fraction	0.448^*** (0.080)	0.448^*** (0.080)	0.440^*** (0.079)	0.448^*** (0.080)	0.447^*** (0.080)	0.439^*** (0.079)
Elderly fraction	−0.146 (0.105)	−0.148 (0.105)	−0.139 (0.105)	−0.148 (0.105)	−0.147 (0.105)	−0.136 (0.105)
Education years	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.002)
Wealth2	−0.037^** (0.017)	−0.036^** (0.018)	−0.035^** (0.018)	−0.035^** (0.017)	−0.035^** (0.018)	−0.035^** (0.017)
Wealth3	−0.021 (0.023)	−0.020 (0.023)	−0.019 (0.023)	−0.020 (0.023)	−0.019 (0.023)	−0.019 (0.023)
Wealth4	−0.029 (0.028)	−0.027 (0.028)	−0.024 (0.028)	−0.027 (0.028)	−0.027 (0.028)	−0.025 (0.027)
Wealth5	−0.003 (0.037)	−0.001 (0.037)	0.001 (0.036)	−0.001 (0.037)	0.000 (0.037)	−0.001 (0.036)
Observations	5,051	5,051	5,051	5,051	5,051	5,051
Households	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781
Household FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year × oblast	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Clustered SE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Patterns of migration

Year	(1)0 to 0	(2)0 to 1	(3)1 to 0	(4)1 to 1
2011	0.761	0.088	0.058	0.093
2012	0.736	0.083	0.071	0.110
2013	0.699	0.107	0.090	0.105

Summary statistics (year 2010)

Variable	Non-migrant	Migrant
Household size	5.07	6.45
Male fraction	0.50	0.53
Adult fraction	0.65	0.72
Elderly fraction	0.07	0.03
Education years	13.35	14.50
Wealth 1	0.29	0.26
Wealth 2	0.24	0.31
Wealth 3	0.20	0.25
Wealth 4	0.16	0.12
Wealth 5	0.11	0.06

Correlation between shocks (year 2010)

	Drought	Rain and landslide	Winter and frost	Earthquake	Pest
Drought	1.00
Rain and landslide	0.00	1.00
Winter and frost	0.14	0.23	1.00
Earthquake	0.02	0.26	0.17	1.00
Pest	0.11	0.24	0.25	0.24	1.00

Hours spent on activities per day in colder vis-à-vis other months

Activity		Mean	SD	P10	P90
Housing/repair	Non-winter	1.9	1.1	1.0	3.5
Housing/repair	Winter	2.8	2.0	1.0	5.5
Eat/sleep/laundry	Non-winter	5.2	3.4	1.5	9.5
Eat/sleep/laundry	Winter	5.2	3.4	1.5	9.5

Shocks and decision to recall and send migrants

	Recallb/se	Sendb/se
Drought_t−1	−0.066 (0.072)	0.053^** (0.021)
Rain and landslide_t−1	−0.101 (0.064)	0.025 (0.019)
Winter and frost_t−1	0.146 (0.103)	−0.004 (0.017)
Earthquake_t−1	0.016 (0.087)	−0.008 (0.022)
Pest_t−1	−0.023 (0.083)	−0.006 (0.019)
Constant	1.318^*** (0.389)	−0.164^* (0.085)
Observations	891	4,160
Households	523	1,668
Household FE	Yes	Yes
Year × oblast	Yes	Yes
Clustered SE	Yes	Yes

Migration, informal finance and shocks

	1b/se	2b/se	3b/se	4b/se	5b/se
Easyfin	0.126 (0.121)	0.082 (0.126)	0.012 (0.144)	0.117 (0.116)	0.019 (0.134)
Drought_t−1	0.183^** (0.077)
Easyfin × drought_t−1	−0.346^** (0.165)
Rain and landslide_t−1		0.091 (0.093)
Easyfin × rain and landslide_t−1		−0.215 (0.199)
Winter and frost_t−1			−0.051 (0.067)
Easyfin × winter and frost_t−1			0.028 (0.143)
Earthquake_t−1				0.176^** (0.087)
Easyfin × earthquake_t−1				−0.431^** (0.192)
Pest_t−1					−0.009 (0.057)
Easyfin × pest_t−1					0.060 (0.143)
Observations	5,051	5,051	5,051	5,051	5,051
Households	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781	1,781
Household FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year × oblast	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Clustered SE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Temporary international migration, shocks and informal finance: analysis using panel data

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Summary of shocks (2010–2013)

Migration and shocks

Migration and shocks: village versus city

Migrant and non-migrant households

Migration and shocks with controls

Patterns of migration

Summary statistics (year 2010)

Correlation between shocks (year 2010)

Hours spent on activities per day in colder vis-à-vis other months

Shocks and decision to recall and send migrants

Migration, informal finance and shocks

Paradigm

My account