Table 1
Migrant and non-migrant households
| Year | Non-migrant | Migrant | Fraction migrant |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1,513 | 271 | 0.152 |
| 2011 | 1,446 | 320 | 0.181 |
| 2012 | 1,438 | 341 | 0.192 |
| 2013 | 1,329 | 357 | 0.212 |
[i] Notes: Households residing in villages were used in the analysis. Non-migrant refers to households who do not have any migrants in the reference period. Migrant refers to households with at least one migrant in the reference period. Fraction migrant is the fraction of migrant households in the reference period.
Figure 1
Migration by month: year 2010.
Table 2
Patterns of migration
| Year | (1) 0 to 0 | (2) 0 to 1 | (3) 1 to 0 | (4) 1 to 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 0.761 | 0.088 | 0.058 | 0.093 |
| 2012 | 0.736 | 0.083 | 0.071 | 0.110 |
| 2013 | 0.699 | 0.107 | 0.090 | 0.105 |
[i] Notes: 1 indicates migrant household; 0 indicates non-migrant household. The columns provide fraction of households that are in the four types of switches. (0 to 1) indicates households that switch from being a non-migrant in the previous year to being migrant in the current year; other switches indicated accordingly.
Table 3
Summary statistics (year 2010)
| Variable | Non-migrant | Migrant |
|---|---|---|
| Household size | 5.07 | 6.45 |
| Male fraction | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| Adult fraction | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| Elderly fraction | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Education years | 13.35 | 14.50 |
| Wealth 1 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Wealth 2 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Wealth 3 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Wealth 4 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| Wealth 5 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
[i] Notes: Adult fraction is the fraction of household members in the 18–65 years age group; elderly fraction is the fraction of household members older than 65 years. In all regressions, fraction of children, those below 17 years of age, is the excluded category. Wealth1–Wealth5 refers to quintiles of a wealth index created using principle component analysis from a range of asset indicators for a household.
Table 4
Summary of shocks (2010–2013)
| Variable | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 0.232 | 0.422 | 0 | 1 |
| Rain and landslide | 0.211 | 0.408 | 0 | 1 |
| Winter and frost | 0.379 | 0.485 | 0 | 1 |
| Earthquake | 0.162 | 0.368 | 0 | 1 |
| Pest | 0.193 | 0.394 | 0 | 1 |
Table 5
Correlation between shocks (year 2010)
| Drought | Rain and landslide | Winter and frost | Earthquake | Pest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought | 1.00 | ||||
| Rain and landslide | 0.00 | 1.00 | |||
| Winter and frost | 0.14 | 0.23 | 1.00 | ||
| Earthquake | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 1.00 | |
| Pest | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1.00 |
Table 6
Migration and shocks
| 1 b/se | 2 b/se | 3 b/se | 4 b/se | 5 b/se | 6 b/se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Droughtt−1 | 0.038* (0.022) | 0.040* (0.023) | ||||
| Rain and landslidet−1 | −0.002 (0.021) | 0.009 (0.022) | ||||
| Winter and frost t−1 | −0.041** (0.020) | −0.045** (0.020) | ||||
| Earthquake t−1 | −0.009 (0.028) | −0.012 (0.027) | ||||
| Pest t−1 | 0.015 (0.017) | 0.012 (0.019) | ||||
| Constant | 0.164*** (0.023) | 0.164*** (0.026) | 0.194*** (0.030) | 0.136*** (0.024) | 0.160*** (0.025) | 0.168*** (0.027) |
| Observations | 5,209 | 5,209 | 5,209 | 5,209 | 5,209 | 5,209 |
| Households | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 |
| Household FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year × oblast | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered SE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
[i] Notes: Migration decision is measured in period t and shocks are measured at time t−1. All regressions include household, year, and year × oblast FE. SE, clustered by community-year, are reported in parenthesis below the estimated coefficients.
[iii] FE, fixed effects; SE, standard errors.
Table 7
Migration and shocks with controls
| 1 b/se | 2 b/se | 3 b/se | 4 b/se | 5 b/se | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Droughtt−1 | 0.042* (0.023) | 0.044* (0.024) | ||||
| Rain and landslide t−1 | −0.002 (0.021) | 0.008 (0.022) | ||||
| Winter and frost t−1 | −0.039* (0.022) | −0.042* (0.022) | ||||
| Earthquake t−1 | −0.006 (0.030) | −0.008 (0.029) | ||||
| Pestt−1 | 0.014 (0.019) | 0.010 (0.020) | ||||
| Constant | −0.371*** (0.101) | −0.399*** (0.103) | −0.337*** (0.101) | −0.399*** (0.102) | −0.388*** (0.103) | −0.365*** (0.100) |
| Household size | 0.045*** (0.010) | 0.045*** (0.010) | 0.045*** (0.010) | 0.045*** (0.010) | 0.045*** (0.010) | 0.045*** (0.010) |
| Male fraction | 0.085 (0.082) | 0.084 (0.083) | 0.088 (0.083) | 0.083 (0.083) | 0.082 (0.083) | 0.087 (0.082) |
| Adult fraction | 0.448*** (0.080) | 0.448*** (0.080) | 0.440*** (0.079) | 0.448*** (0.080) | 0.447*** (0.080) | 0.439*** (0.079) |
| Elderly fraction | −0.146 (0.105) | −0.148 (0.105) | −0.139 (0.105) | −0.148 (0.105) | −0.147 (0.105) | −0.136 (0.105) |
| Education years | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) | −0.001 (0.002) |
| Wealth2 | −0.037** (0.017) | −0.036** (0.018) | −0.035** (0.018) | −0.035** (0.017) | −0.035** (0.018) | −0.035** (0.017) |
| Wealth3 | −0.021 (0.023) | −0.020 (0.023) | −0.019 (0.023) | −0.020 (0.023) | −0.019 (0.023) | −0.019 (0.023) |
| Wealth4 | −0.029 (0.028) | −0.027 (0.028) | −0.024 (0.028) | −0.027 (0.028) | −0.027 (0.028) | −0.025 (0.027) |
| Wealth5 | −0.003 (0.037) | −0.001 (0.037) | 0.001 (0.036) | −0.001 (0.037) | 0.000 (0.037) | −0.001 (0.036) |
| Observations | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 |
| Households | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 |
| Household FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year × oblast | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered SE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
[i] Notes: Migration decision is measured in period t and shocks are measured at time t − 1. All regressions include household, year, and year × oblast FE. SE, clustered by community-year, are reported in parenthesis below the estimated coefficients.
[iii] FE, fixed effects; SE, standard errors.
Table 8
Shocks and decision to recall and send migrants
| Recall b/se | Send b/se | |
|---|---|---|
| Droughtt−1 | −0.066 (0.072) | 0.053** (0.021) |
| Rain and landslidet−1 | −0.101 (0.064) | 0.025 (0.019) |
| Winter and frostt−1 | 0.146 (0.103) | −0.004 (0.017) |
| Earthquaket−1 | 0.016 (0.087) | −0.008 (0.022) |
| Pestt−1 | −0.023 (0.083) | −0.006 (0.019) |
| Constant | 1.318*** (0.389) | −0.164* (0.085) |
| Observations | 891 | 4,160 |
| Households | 523 | 1,668 |
| Household FE | Yes | Yes |
| Year × oblast | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered SE | Yes | Yes |
[i] Notes: Migration decision is measured in period t and shocks are measured at time t − 1. All regressions include household, year, and year × oblast FE and all household control variables included in Table 7. SE, clustered by community-year, are reported in parenthesis below the estimated coefficients.
[iii] FE, fixed effects; SE, standard errors.
Table 9
Hours spent on activities per day in colder vis-à-vis other months
| Activity | Mean | SD | P10 | P90 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing/repair | Non-winter | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Winter | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | |
| Eat/sleep/laundry | Non-winter | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| Winter | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 9.5 | |
[i] Notes: Estimates using Time-Use section of the LiK survey conducted between November 1, 2013 and January 30, 2014. Winter refers to period between mid-December and January. Non-winter refers to period between November and mid-December. P10 and P90 refer to the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution.
Table 10
Migration, informal finance and shocks
| 1 b/se | 2 b/se | 3 b/se | 4 b/se | 5 b/se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easyfin | 0.126 (0.121) | 0.082 (0.126) | 0.012 (0.144) | 0.117 (0.116) | 0.019 (0.134) |
| Droughtt−1 | 0.183** (0.077) | ||||
| Easyfin × droughtt−1 | −0.346** (0.165) | ||||
| Rain and landslidet−1 | 0.091 (0.093) | ||||
| Easyfin × rain and landslidet−1 | −0.215 (0.199) | ||||
| Winter and frostt−1 | −0.051 (0.067) | ||||
| Easyfin × winter and frostt−1 | 0.028 (0.143) | ||||
| Earthquaket−1 | 0.176** (0.087) | ||||
| Easyfin × earthquaket−1 | −0.431** (0.192) | ||||
| Pestt−1 | −0.009 (0.057) | ||||
| Easyfin × pestt−1 | 0.060 (0.143) | ||||
| Observations | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 | 5,051 |
| Households | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 | 1,781 |
| Household FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year × oblast | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered SE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
[i] Notes: Migration decision is measured in period t and shocks are measured at time t − 1. All regressions include household, year, and year × oblast FE and all household control variables included in Table 7. SE, clustered by community-year, are reported in parenthesis below the estimated coefficients.
[iii] FE, fixed effects; SE, standard errors.
Table A1
Migration and shocks: village versus city
| 1 b/se | 2 b/se | b/se | b/se | b/se | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Droughtt−1 | 0.041* (0.022) | ||||
| City × droughtt−1 | −0.014 (0.035) | ||||
| Rain and landslide | 0.001 (0.022) | ||||
| City × rain and landslidet−1 | 0.003 (0.045) | ||||
| Winter and frostt−1 | −0.026 (0.020) | ||||
| City × winter and frostt−1 | 0.028 (0.029) | ||||
| Earthquake t−1 | −0.018 (0.028) | ||||
| City × earthquaket−1 | 0.027 (0.041) | ||||
| Pestt−1 | 0.015 (0.018) | ||||
| City × pestt−1 | −0.022 (0.052) | ||||
| City significance test | |||||
| Ho: shock + city × shock=0 | Accept | Accept | Accept | Accept | Accept |
| Observations | 8,347 | 8,347 | 8,347 | 8,347 | 8,347 |
| Households | 2,976 | 2,976 | 2,976 | 2,976 | 2,976 |
| Household FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year × oblast | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered SE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
[i] Notes: Migration decision is measured in period t and shocks are measured at time t − 1. Information on households residing in villages and cities is provided in the data. All regressions include household, year, and year × oblast FE and all household control variables included in Table 7. SE, clustered by community-year, are reported in parenthesis below the estimated coefficients.
[iii] FE, fixed effects; SE, standard errors.