Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure A1
Figure A2
Figure A3
Figure A4
Figure A5
Figure A6
Preperiod correlates of 2005 Venezuelan share of population
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (100,000) | −0.001 (0.005) | 0.005 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) |
| 100*ln(hourly wage) | −0.017** (0.008) | −0.018* (0.009) | −0.018* (0.009) | −0.024* (0.026) | |
| 100*ln(hours/week) | 0.021 (0.017) | 0.021 (0.017) | 0.026 (0.019) | ||
| 100* unemployment rate | 0.047 (0.125) | 0.049 (0.126) | |||
| 100* LPP rate | 0.041 (0.047) | ||||
| N | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| R2 | 1.6e−04 | 0.051 | 0.073 | 0.073 | 0.09 |
| 2014 metro characteristic | Mc,2005 | Mc,2005 | Mc,2005 | Mc,2005 | Mc,2005 |
2SLS estimates with migrant share quadratic
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ln(hourly wage) | ||||
| All | Less than secondary | Secondary | Postsecondary | |
| Migrant share | −1.40 (1.12) | −2.37** (1.11) | −1.14 (1.02) | −0.79 (1.67) |
| Migrant share2 | 0.02 (0.05) | 0.05 (0.05) | 0.02 (0.05) | 0.00 (0.08) |
| Joint F-statistic | 62.36 | 55.46 | 39.73 | 25.46 |
| K-P Wald stat. | 58.02 | 35.66 | 33.97 | 89.30 |
2SLS estimates additional robustness
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 2SLS | Drop Bogotá | Drop metro yearly sample <1,000 | 2014–2019 Difference model | Kronmal specification | Assign natives to past metro | |
| ln(hourly wage) | ||||||
| All | −1.05*** (0.22) | −1.03*** (0.22) | −1.04*** (0.23) | −1.09*** (0.27) | −0.66*** (0.15) | −1.04*** (0.20) |
| Less than secondary | −1.42*** (0.23) | −1.41*** (0.24) | −1.41*** (0.25) | −1.33*** (0.27) | −0.95*** (0.17) | −1.38*** (0.22) |
| Secondary | −0.86*** (0.22) | −0.87*** (0.22) | −0.85*** (0.23) | −0.79*** (0.28) | −0.54*** (0.15) | −0.80*** (0.21) |
| Postsecondary | −0.75* (0.38) | −0.69* (0.37) | −0.75* (0.39) | −0.96** (0.48) | −0.46** (0.23) | −0.80** (0.36) |
| ln(hours/week) | ||||||
| All | 0.27 (0.27) | 0.28 (0.27) | 0.27 (0.27) | 0.27 (0.32) | 0.17 (0.17) | 0.29 |
| Less than secondary | 0.50 (0.34) | 0.52 (0.34) | 0.51 (0.34) | 0.51 (0.39) | 0.34 (0.22) | 0.51 (0.34) |
| Secondary | 0.32 (0.21) | 0.32 (0.21) | 0.30 (0.21) | 0.26 (0.26) | 0.20 (0.12) | 0.32 (0.21) |
| Postsecondary | −0.02 (0.23) | −0.02 (0.22) | −0.00 (0.22) | 0.01 (0.25) | −0.01 (0.12) | 0.02 (0.22) |
| Unemployment | ||||||
| All | −0.08 (0.07) | −0.08 (0.07) | −0.09 (0.08) | −0.07 (0.07) | −0.05 (0.04) | −0.07 (0.07) |
| Less than secondary | −0.05 (0.06) | −0.05 (0.07) | −0.06 (0.07) | −0.03 (0.06) | −0.04 (0.04) | −0.06 (0.06) |
| Secondary | −0.02 (0.09) | −0.01 (0.08) | −0.03 (0.09) | 0.02 (0.09) | −0.01 (0.05) | −0.01 (0.08) |
| Postsecondary | −0.18* (0.10) | −0.18* (0.10) | −0.17* (0.10) | −0.20* (0.10) | −0.11* (0.06) | −0.15 (0.10) |
| LFP | ||||||
| All | −0.21* (0.11) | −0.21** (0.11) | −0.21** (0.10) | −0.17* (0.10) | −0.13** (0.07) | −0.20** (0.10) |
| Less than secondary | −0.23* (0.12) | −0.24* (0.12) | −0.24** (0.11) | −0.16 (0.10) | −0.16* (0.08) | −0.24** (0.12) |
| Secondary | −0.12** (0.06) | −0.12** (0.06) | −0.12** (0.06) | −0.10 (0.07) | −0.07** (0.04) | −0.12** (0.05) |
| Postsecondary | −0.24 (0.16) | −0.25 (0.16) | −0.23 (0.17) | −0.27 (0.18) | −0.15* (0.08) | −0.21 (0.15) |
| K-P Wald stat. | 23.35 | 23.41 | 19.28 | 30.89 | 24.17 | 24.47 |
| Number of metro areas | 79 | 78 | 27 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
Robustness of 2SLS effects on native internal migration
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 2SLS | Drop <100 km from border | Control trade with Venezuela | Year trend × inverse distance to border | Year trend × region | Drop Bogotá | Drop metro yearly sample <1,000 | Kronmal specification | |
| Outmigration | ||||||||
| All | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.01 (0.08) | 0.03 (0.05) | −0.09 (0.12) | −0.11** (0.05) | 0.05* (0.03) | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.02 (0.02) |
| Less than secondary | 0.07** (0.04) | 0.07 (0.10) | 0.07 (0.06) | −0.04 (0.14) | −0.09 (0.06) | 0.10*** (0.03) | 0.04 (0.03) | 0.05** (0.03) |
| Secondary | 0.10*** (0.03) | 0.05 (0.10) | 0.13*** (0.04) | 0.04 (0.13) | 0.04 (0.05) | 0.10*** (0.03) | 0.07** (0.03) | 0.06*** (0.02) |
| Postsecondary | −0.07 (0.05) | −0.06 (0.08) | −0.13 (0.08) | −0.16 (0.15) | −0.24*** (0.08) | −0.04 (0.04) | −0.04 (0.05) | −0.04 (0.03) |
| Inmigration | ||||||||
| All | −0.08 (0.11) | 0.03 (0.28) | −0.08 (0.12) | 0.26 (0.32) | −0.03 (0.09) | −0.09 (0.12) | −0.07 (0.12) | −0.05 (0.07) |
| Less than secondary | −0.04 (0.12) | 0.20 (0.29) | −0.05 (0.12) | 0.44 (0.30) | −0.01 (0.10) | −0.05 (0.12) | −0.02 (0.13) | −0.02 (0.08) |
| Secondary | −0.17 (0.11) | −0.04 (0.30) | −0.19* (0.10) | 0.11 (0.36) | −0.08 (0.08) | −0.18* (0.11) | −0.16 (0.11) | −0.11* (0.06) |
| Postsecondary | −0.01 (0.14) | −0.06 (0.30) | 0.03 (0.15) | 0.26 (0.41) | 0.07 (0.14) | −0.02 (0.14) | −0.04 (0.13) | −0.00 (0.09) |
| Kleibergen-Paap Wald stat. | 17.78 | 8.88 | 38.19 | 6.30 | 61.57 | 17.79 | 14.00 | 19.49 |
| Number of metro areas | 79 | 73 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 27 | 79 |
Robustness of 2SLS wage effects interacted with regional characteristics
| Interaction variable | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 2SLS | Drop <100 km from border | Control trade with Venezuela | Year trend × inverse distance to border | Year trend × region | Year trend × pre-trend | Drop Bogotá | Drop metro yearly sample <1,000 | 2014–2019 difference model | Kronmal specification | Assign natives to past metro | |
| 2014 mean ln(hourly wage) | −0.36 (0.46) | −0.69 (0.60) | −0.36 (0.46) | −0.31 (0.45) | −0.20† (0.42) | −0.36 (0.46) | −0.47 (0.49) | −0.68 (0.62) | −0.48† (0.50) | −0.63** (0.29) | −0.35 (0.40) |
| 2014 unemployment rate | 0.07 (0.29) | 0.35 (0.82) | 0.11 (0.31) | 0.58** (0.25) | −0.29 (0.33) | 0.08 (0.29) | 0.08 (0.30) | 0.04 (0.33) | 0.08 (0.33) | 0.11 (0.18) | 0.07 (0.26) |
| 2014 informal rate | −0.62* (0.34) | −0.80** (0.38) | −0.63*† (0.34) | −0.56* (0.34) | −0.76*** (0.27) | −0.60* (0.34) | −0.62* (0.37) | −0.64 (0.40) | −0.62† (0.42) | −0.34 (0.48) | −0.53* (0.31) |
| 2014 own-account rate | −0.75** (0.35) | −1.15** (0.45) | −0.81**† (0.38) | −0.73** (0.33) | −0.86***† (0.33) | −0.73** (0.35) | −0.75** (0.37) | −0.80* (0.42) | −0.71*† (0.43) | −0.74* (0.40) | −0.61* (0.33) |
| WB DB (starting a business) | 0.29*† (0.16) | 0.43 (0.35) | 0.34*† (0.18) | 0.41* (0.24) | 0.28† (0.25) | 0.29*† (0.16) | 0.28*† (0.16) | 0.27*† (0.15) | 0.26† (0.16) | 0.16† (0.11) | 0.26*† (0.14) |
| WB DB (construction permits) | −0.31 (0.50) | −0.31 (0.51) | −0.31 (0.51) | −0.29 (0.52) | −0.08† (0.38) | −0.28 (0.49) | −0.36 (0.51) | −0.30 (0.53) | −0.35 (0.61) | −0.18 (0.23) | −0.26 (0.47) |
| WB DB (registering property) | −0.36 (0.43) | −0.37 (0.43) | −0.38 (0.50) | −0.34 (0.39) | −0.38† (0.37) | −0.37 (0.43) | −0.50 (0.45) | −0.33 (0.45) | −0.34 (0.54) | −0.20 (0.16) | −0.30 (0.39) |
| WB DB (paying taxes) | −0.06 (0.23) | −0.28 (0.53) | −0.05 (0.25) | 0.30 (0.25) | −0.49* (0.27) | −0.05 (0.24) | −0.06 (0.23) | −0.07 (0.24) | −0.11 (0.27) | 0.01 (0.12) | −0.05 (0.22) |
| 2014 per capita GDP | −0.13 (0.32) | −0.15 (0.33) | −0.14† (0.31) | −0.20 (0.33) | 0.09† (0.37) | −0.11 (0.31) | −0.18 (0.30) | −0.12 (0.33) | −0.18† (0.35 | −0.14 (0.15) | −0.14 (0.30) |
| N | 474 | 438 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 468 | 162 | 79 | 474 | 474 |
2SLS wage effects interacted with regional characteristics
| ln(hourly wage) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Migrant share | −0.97*** (0.26) | −1.14** (0.55) | −1.02*** (0.23) | −0.55 (0.39) | −1.28*** (0.23) | −0.94*** (0.30) | −1.23*** (0.20) | −1.01*** (0.37) | −1.01*** (0.30) |
| Migrant share interacted with: 2014 mean ln(hourly wage) | −0.36 (0.46) | ||||||||
| 2014 unemployment rate | 0.07 (0.29) | ||||||||
| 2014 informal rate | −0.62* (0.34) | ||||||||
| 2014 own-account rate | −0.75** (0.35) | ||||||||
| 2017 WB DB (starting a business) | 0.29* (0.16) | ||||||||
| 2017 WB DB (construction permits) | −0.31 (0.50) | ||||||||
| 2017 WB DB (registering property) | −0.36 (0.43) | ||||||||
| 2017 WB DB (paying taxes) | −0.06 (0.23) | ||||||||
| 2014 per capita GDP | −0.13 (0.32) | ||||||||
| K-P Wald stat. | 12.38 | 9.51 | 14.11 | 13.27 | 36.46 | 11.55 | 8.73 | 9.03 | 13.31 |
| N | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 | 474 |
2SLS effects on employment by type of work
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Formal salaried | Informal salaried | Own account | Employer | K-P Wald stat. | |
| All | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.02 (0.07) | −0.04 (0.09) | 0.01 (0.02) | 25.69 |
| Female | −0.09*** (0.03) | −0.00 (0.06) | −0.03 (0.10) | 0.01 (0.01) | 25.35 |
| Male | −0.08** (0.03) | −0.03 (0.10) | −0.05 (0.09) | 0.02 (0.03) | 26.10 |
| Age 15–24 years | −0.10*** (0.03) | −0.02 (0.08) | −0.31*** (0.11) | −0.01 (0.00) | 24.77 |
| Age 25–34 years | −0.02 (0.05) | −0.01 (0.08) | 0.07 (0.11) | −0.00 (0.02) | 23.15 |
| Age 35–44 years | −0.09** (0.04) | −0.04 (0.08) | 0.10 (0.09) | 0.04 (0.03) | 25.02 |
| Age 45–54 years | −0.10** (0.04) | −0.00 (0.06) | 0.02 (0.08) | 0.03 (0.03) | 29.18 |
| Age 55–64 years | −0.10** (0.05) | −0.03 (0.05) | −0.01 (0.11) | 0.05** (0.02) | 29.02 |
| Less than secondary | −0.10*** (0.02) | −0.05 (0.08) | −0.06 (0.10) | 0.02 (0.03) | 31.28 |
| Secondary | −0.05 (0.04) | −0.07 (0.07) | 0.06 (0.11) | −0.00 (0.02) | 26.91 |
| Postsecondary | −0.08* (0.05) | 0.01 (0.06) | −0.04 (0.10) | 0.03 (0.02) | 19.22 |
Labor market effects of immigration
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | 2SLS | Test (1) = (2) (p-value) | |
| ln(hourly wage) | −0.73* (0.42) | −1.05*** (0.22) | 0.209 |
| ln(hours/week) | 0.08 (0.26) | 0.27 (0.27) | 0.399 |
| Unemployment | 0.01 (0.13) | −0.08 (0.07) | 0.255 |
| Labor force participation | −0.10 (0.12) | −0.21* (0.11) | 0.355 |
| K-P Wald stat | 23.35 | ||
| N | 474 | 474 | |
| Year FE, City FE | X | X | |
2SLS estimates by demographic groups
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ln(hourly wage) | ln(hours/week) | Unemployment | LFP | K-P Wald stat. | |
| All | −1.05*** (0.22) | 0.27 (0.27) | −0.08 (0.07) | −0.21* (0.11) | 23.35 |
| Male | −1.16*** (0.22) | 0.37** (0.17) | −0.05 (0.08) | −0.18** (0.08) | 24.34 |
| Female | −0.91*** (0.25) | 0.19 (0.39) | −0.12 (0.08) | −0.22* (0.13) | 22.22 |
| Age 15–24 years | −0.94*** (0.20) | 0.14 (0.46) | −0.01 (0.12) | −0.54*** (0.18) | 21.34 |
| Age 25–34 years | −0.97*** (0.22) | 0.31 (0.21) | −0.13 (0.10) | −0.08 (0.07) | 22.11 |
| Age 35–44 years | −1.10*** (0.23) | 0.29 (0.20) | −0.06 (0.07) | −0.07 (0.06) | 23.39 |
| Age 45–54 years | −1.01*** (0.26) | 0.34 (0.25) | −0.10** (0.05) | −0.11 (0.10) | 26.11 |
| Age 55–64 years | −1.21*** (0.30) | 0.24 (0.38) | −0.02 (0.05) | −0.10 (0.11) | 23.71 |
| Less than secondary | −1.42*** (0.23) | 0.50 (0.34) | −0.05 (0.06) | −0.23* (0.12) | 28.72 |
| Secondary | −0.86*** (0.22) | 0.32 (0.21) | −0.02 (0.09) | −0.12** (0.06) | 25.64 |
| Postsecondary | −0.75* (0.38) | −0.02 (0.23) | −0.18* (0.10) | −0.24 (0.16) | 17.22 |
Characteristics of migrants and nonmigrants
| Nonmigrants | Migrants | |
|---|---|---|
| Male (%) | 48.5 (50) | 49.6 (50) |
| Age (years) | 36.5 (13.9) | 31.5 (11.3) |
| Labor force participation (%) | 71.7 (45) | 79.4 (40.5) |
| Unemployment (%) | 11.4 (31.7) | 14.8 (35.5) |
| Median hourly wage (2010 USD) | 2.3 (6.1) | 1.6 (4.8) |
| Hours/week | 45.2 (15.9) | 49.6 (17.4) |
| Own account (%) | 25.3 (43.5) | 32.1 (46.7) |
| Informal (%) | 56 (49.6) | 88.3 (32.1) |
| N | 447,264 | 21,730 |
Wage estimate sensitivity: 1-year migration measure
| Panel A: including return migrants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| OLS | IV: 2005 census | IV: 1993 census | IV: inverse distance | |
| Geographic unit: CZ metro areas | ||||
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2019) | −1.45 (1.29) | −3.53*** (0.80) | −3.96*** (0.90) | −3.82*** (0.67) |
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2017) | −2.18 (2.35) | −4.80*** (1.36) | −5.15*** (1.25) | −5.74*** (0.91) |
| Number of units | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Geographic unit: administrative metro areas | ||||
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2019) | −1.38 (1.67) | −3.05*** (0.89) | −3.60*** (0.82) | −3.58*** (0.59) |
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2017) | −2.76 (3.03) | −4.40** (1.74) | −5.03*** (1.35) | −5.65*** (0.96) |
| Number of units | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Geographic unit: department | ||||
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2019) | −1.80 (1.65) | −4.01*** (1.01) | −4.31*** (1.19) | −4.17*** (0.63) |
| 1-year migrant share (data until 2017) | −3.58 (3.15) | −5.38*** (1.59) | −5.29*** (1.63) | −6.33*** (0.92) |
| Number of units | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
2SLS estimates’ robustness
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 2SLS | Drop <100 km from border | Control trade with Venezuela | Year trend × inverse distance to border | Year trend × region | Year trend × pre-trend | |
| ln(hourly wage) | ||||||
| All | −1.05*** (0.22) | −1.02 (0.68) | −1.07*** (0.21) | −0.53 (0.67) | −0.59** (0.28) | −1.06*** (0.22) |
| Less than secondary | −1.42*** (0.23) | −1.43** (0.64) | −1.45*** (0.22) | −0.45 (0.57) | −0.57 (0.40) | −1.42*** (0.23) |
| Secondary | −0.86*** (0.22) | −0.93 (0.68) | −0.86*** (0.22) | −0.54 (0.58) | −0.32 (0.23) | −0.87*** (0.22) |
| Postsecondary | −0.75* (0.38) | −0.65 (0.99) | −0.76** (0.35) | −0.33 (1.18) | −0.71** (0.30) | −0.82** (0.36) |
| ln(hours/week) | ||||||
| All | 0.27 (0.27) | −0.50* (0.28) | 0.27 (0.28) | −0.68*** (0.24) | 0.47* (0.24) | 0.28 (0.26) |
| Less than secondary | 0.50 (0.34) | −0.58 (0.37) | 0.51 (0.35) | −0.74** (0.31) | 0.67** (0.30) | 0.52 (0.34) |
| Secondary | 0.32 (0.21) | −0.29 (0.28) | 0.32 (0.21) | −0.37 (0.25) | 0.50** (0.23) | 0.32* (0.17) |
| Postsecondary | −0.02 (0.23) | −0.52* (0.28) | −0.04 (0.25) | −0.80*** (0.22) | 0.16 (0.22) | −0.02 (0.22) |
| Unemployment | ||||||
| All | −0.08 (0.07) | −0.15 (0.20) | −0.09 (0.07) | −0.38** (0.16) | −0.25* (0.13) | −0.12 (0.08) |
| Less than secondary | −0.05 (0.06) | −0.13 (0.17) | −0.06 (0.06) | −0.34** (0.13) | −0.17* (0.10) | −0.07 (0.07) |
| Secondary | −0.02 (0.09) | −0.21 (0.19) | −0.02 (0.08) | −0.41*** (0.16) | −0.21 (0.14) | −0.04 (0.08) |
| Postsecondary | −0.18* (0.10) | −0.21 (0.24) | −0.18** (0.09) | −0.47** (0.24) | −0.37** (0.18) | −0.19* (0.10) |
| LFP | ||||||
| All | −0.21* (0.11) | 0.07 (0.18) | −0.20* (0.11) | 0.05 (0.23) | −0.20** (0.09) | −0.13 (0.09) |
| Less than secondary | −0.23* (0.12) | 0.09 (0.23) | −0.23* (0.12) | 0.04 (0.31) | −0.20* (0.11) | −0.17 (0.11) |
| Secondary | −0.12** (0.06) | −0.02 (0.15) | −0.09 (0.07) | 0.00 (0.17) | −0.14*** (0.05) | −0.11 (0.07) |
| Postsecondary | −0.24 (0.16) | 0.13 (0.16) | −0.25 (0.16) | 0.17 (0.19) | −0.26** (0.13) | −0.21 (0.15) |
| K-P Wald stat. | 23.35 | 13.07 | 28.14 | 13.95 | 88.40 | 23.61 |
| Number of metro areas | 79 | 73 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
2SLS effects on employment by occupation skill group
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupation | Underemployed | K−P Wald stat. | |||||
| Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | Group 5 | |||
| All | −0.06*** (0.02) | −0.03 (0.08) | 0.07 (0.04) | −0.01 (0.02) | −0.09*** (0.02) | 0.29** (0.13) | 25.69 |
| Female | 0.02 (0.03) | −0.05 (0.05) | 0.02 (0.06) | −0.03 (0.02) | −0.07*** (0.02) | 0.24* (0.12) | 25.35 |
| Male | −0.15*** (0.03) | −0.00 (0.10) | 0.12*** (0.02) | 0.02 (0.03) | −0.11*** (0.02) | 0.35** (0.14) | 26.10 |
| Age 15–24 years | −0.16*** (0.03) | −0.19** (0.07) | −0.01 (0.07) | −0.04 (0.05) | −0.01 (0.02) | 0.15 (0.11) | 24.77 |
| Age 25–34 years | −0.11*** (0.03) | 0.01 (0.13) | 0.11** (0.05) | 0.15*** (0.04) | −0.11** (0.05) | 0.49*** (0.16) | 23.15 |
| Age 35–44 years | 0.00 (0.03) | 0.08 (0.09) | 0.08** (0.04) | −0.03 (0.04) | −0.18*** (0.04) | 0.36** (0.14) | 25.02 |
| Age 45–54 years | −0.04 (0.05) | 0.07 (0.05) | 0.12*** (0.04) | −0.08* (0.04) | −0.04 (0.03) | 0.35** (0.15) | 29.18 |
| Age 55–64 years | 0.09** (0.04) | −0.12 (0.09) | 0.02 (0.08) | −0.05 (0.03) | −0.06*** (0.02) | 0.09 (0.08) | 29.02 |
| Less than secondary | −0.09*** (0.03) | −0.04 (0.07) | −0.01 (0.06) | −0.02* (0.01) | −0.01** (0.00) | 0.18 (0.11) | 31.28 |
| Secondary | −0.14*** (0.03) | −0.04 (0.06) | 0.15*** (0.05) | −0.00 (0.05) | 0.00 (0.01) | 0.28* (0.15) | 26.91 |
| Postsecondary | −0.02 (0.02) | −0.02 (0.09) | 0.12** (0.05) | 0.04 (0.04) | −0.20*** (0.07) | 0.49*** (0.17) | 19.22 |
Wage estimate sensitivity
| Panel A: including return migrants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| OLS | IV: 2005 census | IV: 1993 census | IV: inverse distance | |
| Geographic unit: CZ metro areas | ||||
| Migrant share | −0.73* (0.42) | −1.05*** (0.22) | −1.13*** (0.21) | −1.16*** (0.17) |
| K-P Wald stat. | 23.35 | 21.78 | 28.54 | |
| Number of units | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Geographic unit: administrative metro areas | ||||
| Migrant share | −0.67 (0.49) | −0.94*** (0.26) | −1.03*** (0.20) | −1.08*** (0.16) |
| K-P Wald stat. | 29.58 | 19.88 | 46.11 | |
| Number of units | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Geographic unit: department | ||||
| Migrant share | −0.83 (0.51) | −1.19*** (0.28) | −1.21*** (0.30) | −1.27*** (0.18) |
| K-P Wald stat. | 19.07 | 20.90 | 35.20 | |
| Number of units | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
Wage estimate sensitivity: 2014–2018 difference model
| Panel A: including return migrants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| OLS | IV: 2005 census | IV: 1993 census | IV: inverse distance | |
| Geographic unit: CZ metro areas | ||||
| Foreigner share (2018 GEIH) | −0.26 (0.60) | −1.07*** (0.39) | −1.05*** (0.35) | −1.24*** (0.24) |
| Foreigner share (2018 census) | −0.54 (0.49) | −1.26*** (0.46) | −1.21*** (0.42) | −1.45*** (0.28) |
| Number of units | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Geographic unit: administrative metro areas | ||||
| Foreigner share (2018 GEIH) | −0.09 (0.63) | −0.87** (0.43) | −0.89*** (0.33) | −1.07*** (0.23) |
| Foreigner share (2018 census) | −0.39 (0.54) | −1.13** (0.57) | −1.09** (0.43) | −1.35*** (0.29) |
| Number of units | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Geographic unit: department | ||||
| Foreigner share (2018 GEIH) | −0.25 (0.59) | −1.02*** (0.39) | −0.97** (0.41) | −1.19*** (0.23) |
| Foreigner share (2018 census) | −0.46 (0.79) | −1.36*** (0.50) | −1.32** (0.53) | −1.53*** (0.29) |
| Number of units | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
Robustness check of 2SLS effects on occupation skill group and type of work
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 2SLS | Drop <100 km from border | Control trade with Venezuela | Year trend × inverse distance to border | Year trend × region | Year trend × pre-trend | Drop Bogotá | Drop metro yearly sample <1,000 | 2014–2019 difference model | Kronmal specification | Assign natives to past metro | |
| Occup skill Group 1 | −0.06*** (0.02) | −0.05 (0.08) | −0.05** (0.03) | 0.04 (0.07) | −0.00 (0.04) | −0.06** (0.02) | −0.07*** (0.02) | −0.07*** (0.02) | −0.06*** (0.02) | −0.04*** (0.02) | −0.06** (0.02) |
| Occup skill Group 2 | −0.03 (0.08) | 0.15 (0.10) | −0.05 (0.07) | 0.21** (0.10) | 0.03 (0.08) | −0.01 (0.08) | −0.03 (0.08) | −0.03 (0.08) | −0.04 (0.07) | −0.02 (0.04) | −0.03 (0.08) |
| Occup skill Group 3 | 0.07 (0.04) | 0.16** (0.08) | 0.08 (0.05) | 0.21*** (0.07) | 0.05 (0.05) | 0.09** (0.04) | 0.06 (0.04) | 0.06 (0.04) | 0.08* (0.05) | 0.04 (0.03) | 0.06 (0.04) |
| Occup skill Group 4 | −0.01 (0.02) | 0.03 (0.05) | 0.00 (0.03) | 0.04 (0.06) | 0.02 (0.02) | −0.01 (0.02) | −0.01 (0.02) | −0.00 (0.02) | −0.00 (0.02) | −0.01 (0.02) | −0.01 (0.02) |
| Occup skill Group 5 | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.11* (0.06) | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.14** (0.07) | −0.11*** (0.04) | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.08*** (0.02) | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.09*** (0.03) | −0.06*** (0.02) | −0.09*** (0.02) |
| Underemployed | 0.29** (0.13) | 0.52 (0.32) | 0.26** (0.12) | 0.57* (0.32) | 0.31** (0.12) | 0.29** (0.13) | 0.28** (0.13) | 0.30** (0.13) | 0.33** (0.13) | 0.18** (0.08) | 0.28** (0.12) |
| Formal salaried | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.10** (0.05) | −0.08*** (0.03) | −0.07 (0.04) | −0.09* (0.05) | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.08*** (0.02) | −0.09*** (0.02) | −0.07*** (0.03) | −0.06*** (0.01) | −0.06*** (0.02) |
| Informal salaried | −0.02 (0.07) | 0.07 (0.16) | 0.01 (0.07) | 0.18 (0.15) | 0.09 (0.06) | −0.04 (0.06) | −0.03 (0.07) | −0.01 (0.07) | −0.07 (0.08) | −0.01 (0.05) | 0.00 (0.06) |
| Own account | −0.04 (0.09) | 0.09 (0.21) | −0.06 (0.08) | 0.13 (0.22) | −0.08 (0.13) | −0.04 (0.09) | −0.04 (0.09) | −0.05 (0.09) | 0.01 (0.07 | −0.03 (0.05) | −0.07 (0.09) |
| Employer | 0.01 (0.02) | 0.04 (0.05) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.07 (0.04) | 0.06*** (0.02) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.01 (0.02) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.02 (0.02 | 0.01 (0.01) | 0.01 (0.02) |
| Kleibergen-Paap Wald stat. | 25.69 | 12.80 | 30.99 | 14.50 | 102.73 | 24.59 | 25.77 | 20.69 | 33.17 | 26.38 | 26.37 |
| Number of metro areas | 79 | 73 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 27 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
School attendance 2SLS linear probability models
| In school | In school | In school | |
|---|---|---|---|
| In labor force | Out of labor force | ||
| All ages (including border locations) | |||
| Migrant share | 0.07** (0.03) | −0.03 (0.08) | 0.11* (0.06) |
| Sample mean | 18.76 | 7.14 | 11.62 |
| Age ≤24 years (including border locations) | |||
| Migrant share | 0.20* (0.10) | −0.19 (0.24) | 0.39* (0.23) |
| Sample mean | 54.60 | 14.43 | 40.17 |
| All ages (excluding border locations) | |||
| Migrant share | 0.13 (0.11) | 0.20* (0.10) | −0.07 (0.09) |
| Sample mean | 18.82 | 7.17 | 11.65 |
| Age ≤24 years (excluding border locations) | |||
| Migrant share | 0.28 (0.34) | 0.49* (0.27) | −0.21 (0.33) |
| Sample mean | 54.69 | 14.45 | 40.24 |
Effects on native internal migration
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outmigration | Inmigration | ||||||
| OLS | 2SLS | Sample mean | OLS | 2SLS | Sample mean | K-P Wald stat. | |
| All | 0.06 (0.06) | 0.03 (0.03) | 6.58 | −0.04 (0.25) | −0.08 (0.11) | 10.17 | 17.78 |
| Male | 0.08 (0.06) | 0.06 (0.04) | 6.76 | 0.01 (0.26) | −0.04 (0.12) | 10.16 | 18.13 |
| Female | 0.05 (0.06) | 0.01 (0.03) | 6.42 | −0.07 (0.23) | −0.11 (0.11) | 10.17 | 17.48 |
| Age 15–24 years | 0.07 (0.08) | 0.05 (0.06) | 7.67 | −0.02 (0.32) | −0.06 (0.16) | 14.88 | 16.69 |
| Age 25–34 years | 0.05 (0.08) | −0.03 (0.05) | 9.49 | −0.09 (0.32) | −0.13 (0.15) | 13.02 | 16.74 |
| Age 35–44 years | 0.05 (0.09) | 0.03 (0.05) | 6.64 | −0.06 (0.25) | −0.10 (0.11) | 9.03 | 17.02 |
| Age 45–54 years | 0.07 (0.05) | 0.07** (0.03) | 3.97 | −0.04 (0.14) | −0.09 (0.06) | 5.62 | 20.18 |
| Age 55–64 years | 0.04 (0.03) | 0.05* (0.03) | 3.09 | −0.04 (0.13) | −0.09 (0.07) | 4.24 | 20.09 |
| Less than secondary | 0.10* (0.06) | 0.07** (0.04) | 5.54 | −0.01 (0.25) | −0.04 (0.12) | 8.87 | 21.90 |
| Secondary | 0.08 (0.08) | 0.10*** (0.03) | 6.62 | −0.08 (0.23) | −0.17 (0.11) | 10.04 | 17.97 |
| Postsecondary | 0.00 (0.08) | −0.07 (0.05) | 7.70 | −0.02 (0.28) | −0.01 (0.14) | 11.71 | 13.30 |