Economic Assimilation of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States1

Giovanni Peri; Zachariah Rutledge

doi:10.2478/izajodm-2022-0003

Figures & Tables

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative log weekly earnings of immigrant cohorts from all countries of origin: (A) normalized convergence; (B) initial gaps and convergence.Notes: The wage differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section. The dependent variable in these regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual, and the explanatory variables include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group comprises native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's log weekly earnings relative to that of native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs. In Figure 1(A), the relative log weekly earnings for each cohort are normalized to zero at the time of entry.

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative log weekly earnings and employment rates of Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts: (A) normalized convergence; (B) initial gaps and convergence; (C) normalized convergence; (D) initial gaps and convergence.Notes: The log weekly earnings and employment rate differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section. The dependent variable in the earnings regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual. The dependent variable in the employment regressions identifies whether each individual was employed for at least 1 week during the previous year. The explanatory variables for both the earnings and the employment regressions include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group comprises native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's employment rate relative to that of native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs. In Figure 2(A), the relative log weekly earnings for each cohort are normalized to zero at the time of entry. In Figure 2(C), the relative employment rate for each cohort is normalized to zero at the time of entry.

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative log weekly earnings of Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts by sector: initial gaps and convergence. (A) agriculture and farming; (B) construction; (C) manufacturing; (D) personal and household services.Notes: The wage differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section using data that only includes individuals employed in the sector identified in the panel being considered. The dependent variable in these regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual, and the explanatory variables include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group comprises native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's log weekly earnings relative to native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs.

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative log weekly earnings of Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts by location: initial gaps and convergences. (A) rural; (B) urban.Notes: The wage differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section using data that only includes individuals employed in the region identified in the panel being considered. The dependent variable in these regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual, and the explanatory variables include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group is composed of native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's log weekly earnings relative to native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs.

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative log weekly earnings of Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts by enclave region: initial gaps and convergences. (A) enclave; (B) non-enclave.Notes: The wage differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section using data that only includes individuals employed in the region identified in the panel being considered. The dependent variable in these regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual, and the explanatory variables include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group is composed of native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's log weekly earnings relative to native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs. The enclave states are the states with the largest percentage of Mexican and Central Americans in the population over the period 1970–2017. They include California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Illinois.

Age-adjusted convergences for the relative weekly earnings of Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts, only high school educated or less: (A) normalized convergence; (B) initial gap and convergence.Notes: The wage differentials presented in this figure are calculated from regressions that are estimated separately for each cross section. The dependent variable in these regressions identifies the log weekly earnings of each individual, and the explanatory variables include a third-order polynomial for age and a set of fixed effects: one for each immigrant cohort. The omitted group is composed of native-born workers such that the coefficients on the cohort fixed effects represent each cohort's log weekly earnings relative to native-born workers in a given survey year, which are used to construct the data points in the graphs. In Figure A1a, the relative log weekly earnings for each cohort are normalized to zero at the time of entry. In Figure A1a and A1b, all individuals (both natives and immigrants) have had a high school education or less.

Mexican and Central American immigrants: initial gaps and convergences after first 10 years

	(1)	(2)
Panel A
Relative entry wage
1965–1969 arrivals	−0.523^** (0.044)	−0.449^** (0.028)
1975–1979 arrivals	−0.626^** (0.042)	−0.437^** (0.028)
1985–1989 arrivals	−0.670^** (0.046)	−0.445^** (0.034)
1995–1999 arrivals	−0.674^** (0.023)	−0.423^** (0.026)
2005–2011 arrivals	−0.732^** (0.016)	−0.427^** (0.027)
2012–17 arrivals	−0.530^** (0.004)	−0.237^** (0.026)

Panel B
Relative wage growth in first 10 years
1965–1969 arrivals	0.081 [0.202]	0.221^** [0.000]
1975–1979 arrivals	0.088 [0.162]	0.216^** [0.001]
1985–1989 arrivals	0.109 [0.102]	0.198^** [0.002]
1995–1999 arrivals	0.099^* [0.031]	0.181^** [0.000]
2005–2011 arrivals	0.189 [0.000]	0.239^** [0.000]

Basic specification	X	–

Education–age–year FE	–	X

N	9,669,594	9,669,594

Mexican and Central American immigrants by sector: initial gaps and convergences after the first 10 years

	Agriculture		Construction		Manufacturing		Personal and household services

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Panel A

Relative entry wage
1965–1969 arrivals	−0.753^** (0.033)	−0.606^** (0.020)	−0.449^** (0.047)	−0.339^** (0.036)	−0.478^** (0.032)	−0.409^** (0.025)	−0.654^** (0.037)	−0.570^** (0.025)
1975–1979 arrivals	−0.733^** (0.034)	−0.500^** (0.021)	−0.534^** (0.041)	−0.325^** (0.034)	−0.592^** (0.031)	−0.393^** (0.024)	−0.816^** (0.036)	−0.612^** (0.025)
1985–1989 arrivals	−0.803^** (0.036)	−0.490^** (0.022)	−0.581^** (0.041)	−0.337^** (0.031)	−0.686^** (0.038)	−0.448^** (0.030)	−0.779^** (0.036)	−0.536^** (0.024)
1995–1999 arrivals	−0.833^** (0.020)	−0.489^** (0.013)	−0.605^** (0.020)	−0.317^** (0.017)	−0.702^** (0.017)	−0.423^** (0.013)	−0.746^** (0.018)	−0.481^** (0.012)
2005–2011 arrivals	−0.872^** (0.014)	−0.461^** (0.013)	−0.746^** (0.014)	−0.368^** (0.017)	−0.641^** (0.015)	−0.289^** (0.011)	−0.817^** (0.013)	−0.459^** (0.012)
2012–17 arrivals	−0.860^** (0.002)	−0.424^** (0.008)	−0.562^** (0.003)	−0.149^** (0.013)	−0.506^** (0.002)	−0.209^** (0.003)	−0.609^** (0.003)	−0.262^** (0.007)

Panel B

Relative wage growth in first 10 years
1965–1969 arrivals	0.010 [0.854]	0.147^** [0.000]	0.079 [0.161]	0.207^** [0.000]	0.072 [0.162]	0.243^** [0.000]	0.041 [0.457]	0.184^** [0.000]
1975–1979 arrivals	−0.026 [0.618]	0.114^** [0.002]	0.082 [0.122]	0.209^** [0.000]	0.086^† [0.093]	0.237^** [0.000]	0.094^† [0.093]	0.224^** [0.000]
1985–1989 arrivals	0.022 [0.679]	0.117^** [0.003]	0.105^† [0.060]	0.197^** [0.000]	0.134^** [0.021]	0.253^** [0.000]	0.076 [0.166]	0.169^** [0.000]
1995–1999 arrivals	0.046 [0.245]	0.129^** [0.000]	0.094^* [0.016]	0.176^** [0.000]	0.118^** [0.003]	0.227^** [0.000]	0.006 [0.862]	0.099^** [0.000]
2005–2011 arrivals	0.161^** [0.000]	0.201^** [0.000]	0.261^** [0.000]	0.313^** [0.000]	0.107^** [0.000]	0.165^** [0.000]	0.099^** [0.000]	0.120^** [0.000]

N	9,425,202	9,425,202	9,423,810	9,423,810	9,423,649	9,423,649	9,426,230	9,426,230

Basic specification	X	–	X	–	X	–	X	–

Education–age–year FE	–	X	–	X	–	X	–	X

Age-adjusted relative log weekly earnings of immigrant cohorts from all countries of origin by census cross section

Cohort	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2017
1950–59 arrivals	0.037^** (0.000)	0.032^** (0.002)	0.100^** (0.003)	0.147^** (0.010)	. . .	. . .
1960–64 arrivals	−0.058^** (0.001)	−0.041^** (0.001)	0.046^** (0.004)	0.074^** (0.004)	0.594^** (0.019)	. . .
1965–1969 arrivals	−0.235^** (0.001)	−0.122^** (0.000)	−0.020^** (0.003)	−0.014^* (0.005)	0.196^** (0.010)	. . .
1970–74 arrivals	. . .	−0.223^** (0.001)	−0.124^** (0.002)	−0.128^** (0.006)	−0.057^** (0.004)	0.161^** (0.012)
1975–1979 arrivals	. . .	−0.314^** (0.001)	−0.185^** (0.000)	−0.176^** (0.005)	−0.136^** (0.004)	−0.118^** (0.007)
1980–84 arrivals	. . .	. . .	−0.285^** (0.001)	−0.236^** (0.002)	−0.206^** (0.006)	−0.188^** (0.010)
1985–1989 arrivals	. . .	. . .	−0.331^** (0.001)	−0.269^** (0.002)	−0.260^** (0.005)	−0.218^** (0.011)
1990–94 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	−0.269^** (0.003)	−0.271^** (0.003)	−0.168^** (0.010)
1995–1999 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	−0.273^** (0.004)	−0.279^** (0.001)	−0.190^** (0.006)
2000–04 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	−0.349^** (0.003)	−0.224^** (0.003)
2005–2011 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	−0.323^** (0.004)	−0.176^** (0.003)
2012–17 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	−0.103^** (0.005)

N	945,579	2,002,074	2,373,285	2,708,438	1,653,425	557,077

Population Estimates for Mexican and Central American Immigrant Cohorts

Cohort	Survey Year

	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2017
1965–1969 arrivals	39,467	81,060	72,985	59,455	2,736	. . .
1975–1979 arrivals	. . .	147,640	240,400	267,721	149,135	38,555
1985–1989 arrivals	. . .	. . .	286,304	631,788	486,691	369,182
1995–1999 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	640,099	768,334	653,910
2005–2011 arrivals	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	595,641	682,617
Natives	34,734,070	40,998,200	47,947,840	53,784,860	57,155,860	61,335,820

Percentage of workforce composed of Mexican and Central American immigrants by sector and location

	Survey year

	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2017
	Panel A: by sector

Agriculture and farming	1.5	4.7	10.5	19.6	27.8	23.8
Construction	0.4	1.1	2.8	7.5	13.1	15.1
Manufacturing	0.8	2.7	4.4	8.5	9.7	7.5
Personal and household services	0.7	2.1	4.3	7.5	9.3	7.2
All sectors	0.4	1.1	2.1	4.4	6	5.4

	Panel B: by location

Rural	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.8	2.8	2.5
Urban	0.5	1.5	2.8	5.2	6.9	6.1
Enclave	1.6	4.2	6.9	11.7	13.3	11.5
Nonenclave	0.2	0.2	0.5	1.8	3.3	3.1

Summary statistics for Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts upon arrival

Cohort	1965–69	1975–79	1985–89	1995–99	2005–11
Age	34.24	33.11	32.85	32.98	33.73
Years of schooling	6.79	6.79	7.29	7.79	8.29
Share of Central Americans	0.18	0.14	0.26	0.15	0.29
Share of those speaking some English	No data	0.66	0.69	0.65	0.67
Share of those speaking good English	No data	0.28	0.31	0.29	0.27
Share of nonwhites	0.06	0.06	0.56	0.55	0.42
Share of noncitizens at arrival	0.78	0.89	0.92	0.95	0.97

Mexican and Central American immigrants by location: initial gaps and convergences after first 10 years

	Rural		Urban		Enclave		Non-enclave

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Panel A

Relative entry wage
1965–1969 arrivals	−0.720^** (0.0433)	−0.625^** (0.0298)	−0.481^** (0.0449)	−0.413^** (0.0291)	−0.536^** (0.054)	−0.448^** (0.035)	−0.494^** (0.024)	−0.452^** (0.017)
1975–1979 arrivals	−0.722^** (0.0451)	−0.521^** (0.0306)	−0.612^** (0.0422)	−0.425^** (0.0289)	−0.650^** (0.043)	−0.450^** (0.029)	−0.480^** (0.040)	−0.362^** (0.028)
1985–1989 arrivals	−0.714^** (0.0514)	−0.447^** (0.0357)	−0.663^** (0.0466)	−0.441^** (0.0344)	−0.698^** (0.048)	−0.461^** (0.035)	−0.581^** (0.041)	−0.379^** (0.029)
1995–1999 arrivals	−0.704^** (0.0229)	−0.406^** (0.0169)	−0.668^** (0.228)	−0.419^** (0.0249)	−0.705^** (0.025)	−0.445^** (0.023)	−0.629^** (0.017)	−0.369^** (0.015)
2005–2011 arrivals	−0.647^** (0.0152)	−0.320^** (0.0124)	−0.743^** (0.0163)	−0.434^** (0.0255)	−0.751^** (0.017)	−0.434^** (0.019)	−0.711^** (0.012)	−0.393^** (0.019)
2012–17 arrivals	−0.512^** (0.00284)	−0.147^** (0.00513)	−0.531^** (0.00363)	−0.243^** (0.0236)	−0.570^** (0.003)	−0.270^** (0.015)	−0.484^** (0.002)	−0.176^** (0.018)

N	9,112,492	9,112,492	9,331,676	9,331,676	9,588,212	9,588,212	9,465,090	9,465,090

Panel B

Relative wage growth in first 10 years
1965–1969 arrivals	0.047 [0.476]	0.207^** [0.000]	0.073 [0.257]	0.213^** [0.000]	0.086 [0.224]	0.226^** [0.000]	0.096^† [0.057]	0.208^** [0.000]
1975–1979 arrivals	0.093 [0.188]	0.232^** [0.000]	0.084 [0.183]	0.212^** [0.000]	0.103 [0.124]	0.228^** [0.000]	0.024 [0.653]	0.167^** [0.000]
1985–1989 arrivals	0.097 [0.184]	0.193^** [0.001]	0.107 [0.110]	0.197^** [0.000]	0.126^† [0.077]	0.211^** [0.000]	0.056 [0.304]	0.161^** [0.001]
1995–1999 arrivals	0.079 [0.092]	0.171^** [0.000]	0.098^* [0.034]	0.180^** [0.000]	0.119^* [0.019]	0.202^** [0.000]	0.062^† [0.075]	0.147^** [0.000]
2005–2011 arrivals	0.067 [0.001]	0.170^** [0.000]	0.204^** [0.000]	0.249^** [0.000]	0.195^** [0.000]	0.240^** [0.000]	0.182^** [0.000]	0.242^** [0.000]

Basic specification	X	–	X	–	X	–	X	–

Education–age–year FE	–	X	–	X	–	X	–	X

Economic Assimilation of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States1

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure A1

Mexican and Central American immigrants: initial gaps and convergences after first 10 years

Mexican and Central American immigrants by sector: initial gaps and convergences after the first 10 years

Age-adjusted relative log weekly earnings of immigrant cohorts from all countries of origin by census cross section

Population Estimates for Mexican and Central American Immigrant Cohorts

Percentage of workforce composed of Mexican and Central American immigrants by sector and location

Summary statistics for Mexican and Central American immigrant cohorts upon arrival

Mexican and Central American immigrants by location: initial gaps and convergences after first 10 years

Paradigm

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