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Bilateral labor agreements and the migration of Filipinos: An instrumental variable approach Cover

Bilateral labor agreements and the migration of Filipinos: An instrumental variable approach

IZA Journal of Development and Migration
Volume 12 (2021): Issue 1 (January 2021)
By: Brianna O’Steen  
Open Access
|Sep 2021

Figures & Tables

Variables

VariablesFormSource
Independent
BLADummyMangulabnan and Daquio (2019)
Dependent
Migrant Stock# of personsPhilippine Overseas Employment Agency and Global Bilateral Migration Database
Instruments
BITDummyICSID and UNCTAD databases
Formal allianceDummyCorrelates of War Project database
Controls
GDP pc hostCurrent USD, lnWorld Development Indicators
GDP pc Phil.Current USD, lnWorld Development Indicators
GDP pc ratioNatural log ratio ln(host/Ph)
Unemployment% of total labor force (national ests.)World Development Indicators
Gov. spending% of GDPWorld Development Indicators
Population host# of persons, lnWorld Development Indicators
Population Phil.# of persons, lnWorld Development Indicators
ImportsUSD millions, lnInternational Monetary Fund
ExportsUSD millions, lnInternational Monetary Fund
Polity2 HostPolity 2 scoreCenter for Systemic Peace
Polity2 SourcePolity 2 scoreCenter for Systemic Peace
Polity2 DifferenceAbsolute difference

Effect of BLA-onset on the migrant stock of Filipinos in host countries

Variables(1)OLS(2)IV(3)IV
BLA (onset)13,671 (30,270)225,161 (270,067)174,313 (302,610)
GDP Per Capita Ratio13,216 (8,064)16,480** (7,097)15,976* (8,251)
Unemployment55.63 (1,013)40.25 (1,169)665.4 (915.9)
Government spending−379.9 (884.7)−148.9 (1,182)244.9 (826.7)
Population (ln)32,137 (20,422)11,162 (19,903)26,298 (22,172)
Imports (ln)4,303* (2,281)3,291 (2,508)3,179 (1,958)
Exports (ln)5,841** (2,673)5,864** (2,903)4,458** (2,048)
Polity scores difference987.7 (1,712)713.8 (2,193)1,076 (2,427)
Year (time trend)110.3 (577.6)−356.1 (1,140)−880.7 (1,782)
Euro Cen Asia*year −58.25 (814.8)
Latin Am and Carib*year −153.1 (1,462)
Mid East North Af*year 62.91 (923.5)
North America*year 15,644 (10,044)
South Asia*year −39.98 (1,546)
Sub-Sah Africa*year 170.9 (1,558)
Observations1,6851,6851,685
R20.04
Countries213213213

Effect of BLAs on the migrant stock of Filipinos in host countries

VariablesOLS(1)IV(2)IV(3)
BLA (real)12,310 (29,626)208,470 (249,204)152,194 (261,107)
GDP Per Capita Ratio13,079* (7,819)14,242* (7,340)13,917* (8,287)
Unemployment51.45 (1,020)−30.94 (1,151)618.8 (927.9)
Government spending−397.4 (915.5)−438.3 (921.2)24.88 (527.5)
Population (ln)32,548 (19,992)17,479 (17,182)30,315 (18,487)
Imports (ln)4,299* (2,268)3,189 (2,532)3,007 (1,852)
Exports (ln)5,823** (2,646)5,568* (3,015)4,135** (1,999)
Polity scores difference956.8 (1,654)182.4 (2,377)804.6 (2,645)
Year (time trend)120.9 (593.3)−191.5 (964.9)−675.8 (1,432)
Euro Cen Asia*year −11.40 (854.6)
Latin Am and Carib*year −296.6 (1,214)
Mid East North Af*year 349.3 (800.5)
North America*year 15,662 (10,059)
South Asia*year −235.7 (1,211)
Sub-Sah Africa*year 48.55 (1,331)
Observations1,6851,6851,685
R20.041
Countries213213213

First Stage results for final models

Variables(2)(3)
BIT0.1394*** (0.0223)0.117*** (0.2227)
Alliance0.0944 (0.0576)0.0966* (0.0569)
GDP Per Capita Ratio−0.0065 (0.0112)−0.0118 (0.011)
Unemployment−0.0005 (0.0026)−0.00002 (0.0026)
Government spending0.0004 (0.0013)0.0009 (0.0012)
Population (ln)0.0893*** (0.0212)0.0442 (0.0268)
Imports (ln)0.0029 (0.0036)0.0004 (0.0035)
Exports (ln)−0.0015 (0.0038)−0.0053 (0.0038)
Polity scores difference0.003 (0.0029)0.0046 (0.0029)
Year (time trend)0.0008 (0.0007)0.0044*** 0.0009
Euro Cen Asia*year −0.003*** (0.0009)
Latin Am and Carib*year −0.0041*** (0.0009)
Mid East North Af*year 0.0019* (0.0011)
North America*year 0.0027 (0.0021)
South Asia*year −0.0048** (0.0016)
Sub-Sah Africa*year −0.0047*** (0.0009)
Observations1,6851,685
Countries213213
F Statistic19.77***14.35***

Formal alliances with the Philippines

CountryStart yearEnd year
Australia19541977
France19541974
Jordan*2018Still valid
New Zealand*19541977
Pakistan19541972
Thailand19541977
United Kingdom*19541977
United States*1951Still valid
United States19541977

BITs with the Philippines

CountryDate signedCountryDate signed
Argentina09/20/1999Lao*06/08/2007
Australia01/25/1995Mongolia09/01/2000
Austria04/11/2002Myanmar02/17/1998
Bahrain*11/07/2001Netherlands02/27/1985
Bangladesh09/08/1997Pakistan05/11/1999
Belgium-Luxembourg01/14/1998Portugal11/08/2002
Cambodia*08/16/2000Romania05/18/1994
Canada*11/09/1995Russia09/12/1997
Chile11/20/1995Saudi Arabia*10/18/1994
China*07/20/1992South Korea*04/07/1994
Czech Republic04/05/1995Spain*10/19/1993
Denmark09/26/1997Sweden08/17/1999
Finland03/25/1998Switzerland*03/31/1997
France06/14/197609/13/1994Syria11/25/2009
Germany*03/03/196404/18/1997Taiwan*02/28/1992
India01/28/2000Thailand09/30/1995
Indonesia*11/12/2001Turkey02/22/1999
Iran10/08/1995United Kingdom*12/03/1980
Italy*06/17/1988Vietnam02/27/1992
Kuwait*12/03/2000

Philippines BLAs chronologically

CountryDate signedCountryDate signed
United States*12/28/1968New Zealand*11/04/2008
Papua New Guinea03/14/1979Qatar*10/18/2008
Libya10/18/1979Japan*01/12/2009
Qatar05/05/1981South Korea05/30/2009
Jordan11/05/1981South Korea05/20/2009
Iraq*11/25/1982Canada*09/21/2010
Liberia08/10/1985Jordan05/27/2010
Jordan11/03/1988Taiwan*07/26/2011
Northern Marianna Islands09/19/1994Canada*05/19/2012
Kuwait09/14/1997Jordan01/29/2012
Qatar*05/10/1997Kuwait*03/23/2012
Taiwan*09/03/1999Lebanon*02/01/2012
Northern Mariana Islands*12/18/2000Lebanon*02/01/2012
Norway06/26/2001Canada*10/07/2013
Taiwan01/12/2001Germany*03/19/2013
Switzerland*07/09/2002Papua New Guinea*11/26/2013
United Kingdom01/08/2002Saudi Arabia*05/19/2013
Bahrain*12/15/2003South Korea04/08/2014
Indonesia*01/18/2003Switzerland11/14/2014
Taiwan03/20/2003Canada*05/08/2015
United Kingdom*07/30/2003Canada*05/09/2015
South Korea04/23/2004Italy*05/09/2015
Lao*07/27/2005Taiwan08/03/2015
Saudi Arabia*10/21/2005New Zealand*09/19/2015
South Korea12/15/2005Cambodia*12/14/2016
Canada12/18/2006Japan*11/21/2017
Libya*07/17/2006South Korea*2017
Japan09/09/2006Saudi Arabia*04/11/2017
South Korea10/20/2006United Arab Emirates*09/12/2017
Spain*06/25/2006United Arab Emirates*09/12/2017
Bahrain*04/04/2007China*04/10/2018
United Arab Emirates04/09/2007Israel*09/03/2018
Canada01/29/2008Israel*09/03/2018
Canada02/08/2008Jordan*09/06/2018
Canada10/01/2008Jordan*09/06/2018
Kuwait*05/11/2018

Single instrument checks for the effect of BLA on migrant stock

Variables(1)BIT(2)Alliance(3)BIT and alliance
BLA (real)152,011 (279,322)154,929 (462,103)152,229 (257,964)
GDP Per Capita Ratio13,915* (8,121)13,949 (12,286)13,917* (8,322)
Unemployment618.9 (935.3)616.7 (903.1)618.7 (926.5)
Government spending25.02 (518.4)22.65 (783.9)24.85 (529.4)
Population (ln)30,322 (18,958)30,215 (21,685)30,314* (18,404)
Imports (ln)3,007 (1,875)3,000 (1,941)3,007 (1,847)
Exports (ln)4,134** (1,976)4,144 (2,935)4,135** (2,004)
Polity scores difference805.6 (2,733)789.4 (2,971)804.4 (2,629)
Year (time trend)−674.9 (1,515)−689.7 (2,440)−676.0 (1,418)
Euro Cen Asia*year−11.92 (904.8)−3.602 (1,334)−11.30 (845.8)
Latin Am and Carib*year−297.4 (1,301)−284.2 (2,037)−296.5 (1,198)
Mid East North Af*year349.7 (802.2)343.4 (1,400)349.2 (800.9)
North America*year15,663 (10,098)15,653 (9,595)15,662 (10,051)
South Asia*year−236.5 (1,295)−223.3 (2,069)−235.5 (1,196)
Sub-Sah Africa*year47.64 (1,421)62.25 (2,323)48.73 (1,316)
Observations1,6851,6851,685
Countries213213213

Summary statistics

Obs.MeanStd. Dev.MinMax
Primary variables
Migrants1,68533,649.47188,75202,700,000
BLA-real12,8620.0360.18601
BLA-onset12,8620.0430.20301
BIT12,9210.0720.25801
Alliance12,9210.0120.11101
Controls
GDP Per Capita Phil.591,000.579850.895156.7043,102.713
GDP Per Capita Host9,7738,167.73216,035.0634.7911,89,170.9
GDP Per Capita Ratio9,7337.07211.5710.088117.737
GDP pc Ratio Ex.1 (ln)12,9210.9461.471−2.4324.768
Unemployment3,8048.1056.2310.0557
Unemployment Ex.212,9218.6396.3120.0557
Government spending7,90115.9517.2510135.809
Government spending Ex.312,92117.1428.0390135.809
Population12,80724,050,417100,978,8453,8931,392,730,000
Population Ex.4 (ln)12,92114.7632.4348.26721.055
Imports6,096244.7121,014.3660.00001921,394.27
Imports Ex.5 (ln)12,921−0.4893.563−10.8719.971
Exports6,977169.576866.9872.00113,918.86
Exports Ex.6 (ln)12,921−0.5313.182−13.1229.541
Polity scores Phil.583.2076.722−98
Polity scores host8,3060.9987.409−1010
Polity scores absolute dif.8,3066.9642.715010
Polity scores dif. ex.712,9216.8732.441010
Regional dummies
East Asia and Pacific12,9210.1740.37901
Europe and Central Asia12,9210.2650.44101
Latin America and Caribbean12,9210.1960.39701
Mid. East and Northern Africa12,9210.0960.29401
North America12,9210.0140.11601
South Asia12,9210.0370.18801
Sub Saharan Africa12,9210.2190.41401
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0011 | Journal eISSN: 2520-1786
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Language: English
Accepted on: Jul 13, 2021
|
Published on: Sep 24, 2021
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
bilateral labor agreement,
migration,
Overseas Filipino Workers,
labor export,
labor policy,
Philippines
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Political economics,
Microeconomics,
Macroeconomics,
Economic policy,
Mathematics and statistics for economists,
Econometrics

© 2021 Brianna O’Steen, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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