Figure 1
Conflict-related casualties and injured in Afghanistan. (A) Casualties and injured over time. (B) Casualties and injured across space.
Source: Author's calculations based on UNAMA (2019) and GTD (2016). GTD, global terrorism database.
Figure 2
Economic activity in Afghanistan. (A) Firm registration by sector. (B) GDP growth rates by sector.
Source: World Bank (2018). GDP, gross domestic product.
Table 1
Summary statistics
| Variable | N | Mean | Min | Max | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nighttime light (nanowatts) | 5,970 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 89.43 | 5.14 |
| Active formal firms (per 1,000 inhabitants) | 3,159 | 1.12 | 0.01 | 18.71 | 1.68 |
| Poppy cultivation (hectares per 1,000 inhabitants) | 3,582 | 6.73 | 0.00 | 416.5 | 27.20 |
| Killings (per 1,000 inhabitants) | 5,970 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 6.81 | 0.22 |
| ISAF troops (per 1,000 inhabitants) | 646 | 2.66 | 0.00 | 38.73 | 5.46 |
| ANA troops (per 1,000 inhabitants) | 646 | 4.64 | 0.00 | 19.32 | 5.50 |
| Security-related aid (USD per quarter per 1,000 inhabitants) | 646 | 119 | 0.00 | 16,555 | 878 |
| Other aid (USD per quarter per 1,000 inhabitants) | 646 | 15,492 | 0.00 | 242,573 | 27,538 |
[i] ANA, Afghan National Army; ISAF, International Security Assistance Force.
Figure 3
Response estimates of conflict on Economic Activity. (A) Conflict and nighttime light. (B) Conflict and active formal firms. (C) Conflict and land devoted to poppy cultivation.
Note: Coefficients from regressing log (sum of lights per area), log (active formal firms per 1,000 inhabitants) and log (Poppy cultivation per 1,000 inhabitants) on lead and lags of conflict, controlling for district and time fixed effects, troops’ presence and aid. Coefficients for t−4 to t−1 come from regressions (A4–A6), while coefficients for t+1 to t+4 come from regressions (A1–A3). Coefficient t−1 refers to the lead (t+1) estimate. Conversely coefficient t+1 refers to the lag (t−1) estimate. Confidence intervals in whiskers are derived from district-clustered standard errors.
Figure 4
The impact of a surge in conflict on economic activity. (A) Temporary surge in conflict. (B) Permanent surge in conflict.
Table A1
Conflict and nighttime light
| log (sum of lights per area) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt−1 | −0.0110** (0.00488) | −0.00833* (0.00499) | −0.00825* (0.00499) | −0.00826* (0.00500) | −0.00821* (0.00496) |
| Conflicitt−2 | −0.0203*** (0.00659) | −0.0173*** (0.00632) | −0.0173*** (0.00632) | −0.0172*** (0.00631) | −0.0172*** (0.00631) |
| Conflicitt−3 | −0.0103 (0.00764) | −0.00742 (0.00676) | −0.00751 (0.00676) | −0.00744 (0.00675) | −0.00749 (0.00675) |
| Conflicitt−4 | −0.00835 (0.00792) | −0.00836 (0.00713) | −0.00837 (0.00712) | −0.00838 (0.00712) | −0.00839 (0.00710) |
| Troopst−1 | 0.0211*** (0.00455) | 0.0212*** (0.00453) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | 0.0217*** (0.00476) | 0.0215*** (0.00473) | |||
| ANAt−1 | −0.00943 (0.0758) | 0.00251 (0.0763) | |||
| AIDt−1 | 4.83e–07*** (1.85e–07) | 4.91e–07*** (1.84e–07) | |||
| Securityt−1 | 1.12e–05** (4.81e–06) | 1.10e–05** (4.81e–06) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | 4.40e–07** (1.85e–07) | 4.45e–07** (1.83e–07) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 5,970 | 5,970 | 5,970 | 5,970 | 5,970 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.994 | 0.994 | 0.994 | 0.994 | 0.994 |
Table A2
Conflict and active formal firms
| log (active formal firms per 1,000 inhabitants) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt−1 | −0.0512* (0.0271) | −0.0488** (0.0247) | −0.0490** (0.0247) | −0.0489** (0.0246) | −0.0492** (0.0246) |
| Conflicitt−2 | −0.0401 (0.0303) | −0.0388 (0.0284) | −0.0388 (0.0283) | −0.0390 (0.0284) | −0.0390 (0.0283) |
| Conflicitt−3 | −0.00931 (0.0250) | −0.00819 (0.0243) | −0.00792 (0.0242) | −0.00852 (0.0243) | −0.00819 (0.0242) |
| Conflicitt−4 | −0.0338 (0.0251) | −0.0318 (0.0236) | −0.0316 (0.0235) | −0.0320 (0.0237) | −0.0318 (0.0235) |
| Troopst−1 | 0.0264 (0.0264) | 0.0264 (0.0264) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | 0.0239 (0.0257) | 0.0230 (0.0256) | |||
| ANAt−1 | 0.172 (0.196) | 0.224 (0.209) | |||
| AIDt−1 | −1.42e–06** (6.70e–07) | −1.42e–06** (6.72e–07) | |||
| Securityt−1 | 1.83e–05*** (6.39e–06) | 2.09e–05*** (7.92e–06) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | −1.56e–06** (6.89e–07) | −1.58e06** (6.90e–07) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 3,159 | 3,159 | 3,159 | 3,159 | 3,159 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.835 | 0.836 | 0.836 | 0.836 | 0.836 |
Table A3
Conflict and land devoted to poppy cultivation
| log (Poppy cultivation per 1,000 inhabitants) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt−1 | 0.00054 (0.0395) | 0.000385 (0.0395) | 0.0107 (0.0397) | −0.00158 (0.0395) | 0.00817 (0.0398) |
| Conflicitt−2 | 0.0640* (0.0365) | 0.0613* (0.0365) | 0.0640* (0.0369) | 0.0603* (0.0365) | 0.0630* (0.0369) |
| Conflicitt−3 | 0.045 (0.0530) | 0.0429 (0.0528) | 0.053 (0.0525) | 0.045 (0.0526) | 0.0539 (0.0524) |
| Conflicitt−4 | 0.0674 (0.0614) | 0.0667 (0.0610) | 0.0626 (0.0593) | 0.0676 (0.0610) | 0.0637 (0.0595) |
| Troopst−1 | −0.00704 (0.00910) | −0.00729 (0.00903) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | 0.0105 (0.0124) | 0.00877 | |||
| (0.0122) | |||||
| ANAt−1 | −0.0478** (0.0186) | −0.0444** (0.0187) | |||
| AIDt−1 | −5.10e–06** (2.41e–06) | −4.79e–06** (2.42e–06) | |||
| Securityt−1 | −0.000274*** (9.41e–05) | −0.000233** (9.14e–05) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | −5.05e–06** (2.41e–06) | −4.77e–06** (2.42e–06) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 3,582 | 3,582 | 3,582 | 3,582 | 3,582 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.835 | 0.836 | 0.836 | 0.836 | 0.836 |
Table A4
Conflict and nighttime light (placebo test)
| log (sum of lights per area) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt+1 | −0.000553 (0.00782) | 0.00363 (0.00638) | 0.00357 (0.00636) | 0.00365 (0.00639) | 0.00359 (0.00638) |
| Conflicitt+2 | −0.00941 (0.00774) | −0.00527 (0.00738) | −0.00538 (0.00739) | −0.00514 (0.00739) | −0.00525 (0.00740) |
| Conflicitt+3 | −0.00223 (0.00642) | 0.00213 (0.00572) | 0.00205 (0.00573) | 0.00224 (0.00571) | 0.00216 (0.00572) |
| Conflicitt+4 | 0.00366 (0.00638) | 0.00552 (0.00588) | 0.00544 (0.00587) | 0.00560 (0.00588) | 0.00553 (0.00587) |
| Troopst−1 | 0.0164*** (0.00392) | 0.0164*** (0.00392) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | 0.0172*** (0.00398) | 0.0172*** (0.00397) | |||
| ANAt−1 | 0.0573* (0.0345) | 0.0594* (0.0345) | |||
| AIDt−1 | 1.19e–06 (9.56e–07) | 1.02e–06 (9.71e–07) | |||
| Securityt−1 | 1.27e–05*** (4.85e–06) | 1.29e–05*** (4.79e–06) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | 9.39e–07 (9.81e–07) | 7.54e–07 (9.97e–07) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 5,572 | 5,572 | 5,572 | 5,572 | 5,572 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.993 | 0.994 | 0.994 | 0.994 | 0.994 |
Table A5
Conflict and active formal firms (placebo test)
| log (active formal firms per 1,000 inhabitants) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt+1 | −0.00843 (0.0189) | −0.00643 (0.0182) | −0.00645 (0.0181) | −0.00650 (0.0182) | −0.00654 (0.0181) |
| Conflicitt+2 | −0.00230 (0.0200) | −0.000640 (0.0215) | −0.000756 (0.0215) | −0.000623 (0.0216) | −0.000808 (0.0215) |
| Conflicitt+3 | −0.0147 (0.0123) | −0.0122 (0.0130) | −0.0126 (0.0129) | −0.0123 (0.0129) | −0.0128 (0.0128) |
| Conflicitt+4 | −0.00947 (0.00771) | −0.00736 (0.00869) | −0.00757 (0.00861) | −0.00736 (0.00874) | −0.00769 (0.00864) |
| Troopst−1 | 0.0198 (0.0193) | 0.0196 (0.0193) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | 0.0181 (0.0189) | 0.0169 (0.0189) | |||
| ANAt−1 | 0.135 (0.168) | 0.207 (0.192) | |||
| AIDt−1 | −2.55e–07 (9.50e–07) | −7.21e–08 (1.03e–06) | |||
| Securityt−1 | 1.51e–05** (6.01e–06) | 1.92e–05** (8.79e–06) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | −8.04e–07 (9.84e–07) | −6.43e–07 (1.02e–06) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 2,673 | 2,673 | 2,673 | 2,673 | 2,673 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.889 | 0.889 | 0.889 | 0.889 | 0.889 |
Table A6
Conflict and land devoted to poppy cultivation (placebo test)
| log (Poppy cultivation per 1,000 inhabitants) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Conflicitt+1 | −0.0248 (0.0514) | −0.0120 (0.0519) | −0.0123 (0.0521) | −0.0143 (0.0522) | −0.0151 (0.0524) |
| Conflicitt+2 | 0.0140 (0.0305) | 0.0212 (0.0319) | 0.0212 (0.0319) | 0.0207 (0.0319) | 0.0207 (0.0319) |
| Conflicitt+3 | −0.0537 (0.0775) | −0.0699 (0.0664) | −0.0705 (0.0669) | −0.0702 (0.0666) | −0.0718 (0.0669) |
| Conflicitt+4 | 0.0668 (0.0551) | 0.0689 (0.0595) | 0.0687 (0.0595) | 0.0698 (0.0597) | 0.0695 (0.0599) |
| Troopst−1 | −0.0250*** (0.00897) | −0.0248*** (0.00893) | |||
| ISAFt−1 | −0.0264* (0.0136) | −0.0287** (0.0132) | |||
| ANAt−1 | −0.0223 (0.0193) | −0.0176 (0.0193) | |||
| AIDt−1 | −1.58e–05** (6.61e–06) | −1.58e–05** (6.63e–06) | |||
| Securityt−1 | −0.000682** (0.000275) | −0.000704*** (0.000266) | |||
| Other aidt−1 | −1.56e–05** (6.59e–06) | −1.58e–05** (6.59e–06) | |||
| District fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 3,184 | 3,184 | 3,184 | 3,184 | 3,184 |
| Adj. R2 | 0.778 | 0.813 | 0.813 | 0.813 | 0.813 |