Rainfall and self-selection patterns in Mexico-US migration

[i] Source: Rainfall data from the MMP and INEGI. *Drought Spring: a dichotomous variable which is unity if Rain Spring in a state is one standard deviation below the historical average of that state; zero otherwise.

Table 2

Summary statistics of individual-year characteristics of male household heads from 1941 to 2012.

	Movement decision (travel)				Migration status (in the US)
	Mean	Std. Dev.	Mean	Std. Dev.	Mean	Std. Dev.	Mean	Std. Dev.

	All males		Migrants (2%)		All males		Migrants (9%)
Travel/ln US (%)	2	15			9	28
School (Years)	5.37	4.50	4.89	3.73	5.35	4.44	5.22	3.78
No school (0) (%)	17	38	14	35	17	37	12	33
Primary (1–5 years) (%)	33	47	39	49	33	47	38	49
Middle (6–8 years) (%)	26	44	27	45	26	44	29	45
High (9–11 years) (%)	12	32	13	33	12	32	13	34
College (12–15 years) (%)	7	26	5	22	7	26	6	24
Grad (16–25 years) (%)	5	22	2	13	5	21	2	13
Married (%)	68	47	63	48	68	47	66	47
Age (years)	34.78	12.90	29.39	9.91	34.62	12.76	32.47	11.00
Child (number of children)	2.07	2.30	1.94	2.30	2.07	2.29	2.06	2.24
Migrated before (%)	18	38	49	50	25	43	88	33
Illegal (%)			69	46			54	50

Number of Observations	574,779		12,829		627,777		54,442

[i] Source: Retrospective data from 1941 to 2012 on the migration history of male household heads in the MMP. The number of observations for the variable Illegal is 12,736 and 54,137 for the travel and in the US samples, respectively.

Table 3

Male migrants’ coyote costs and sector choices change with rainfall.

	Coyote costs in USD
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Rainfall	−7.7718**	−7.7860**	−11.7426***	−7.6126*	−7.6126
	(3.4833)	(3.4893)	(4.3320)	(4.3557)	(5.2118)
School		−4.8631***	−9.9031***	−26.8254	−26.8254
		(1.6115)	(3.7678)	(19.4667)	(27.7395)
School × Rainfall			0.6594 (0.4270)
Married		28.8064**	28.6928**	4.4146	4.4146
		(11.2538)	(11.2578)	(18.7946)	(27.0166)
Age		−2.1656***	−2.2260***
		(0.5972)	(0.5996)
Child		0.8596	0.7900	0.9558	0.9558
		(2.1556)	(2.1517)	(4.2650)	(6.5539)
Fixed effects	Community FE	Community FE	Community FE	Individual FE	Individual FE
State FE & Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cluster	State × Year	State × Year	State × Year	State × Year	Individual

R²	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.91	0.91
Number of observations	5,937	5,937	5,937	5,937	5,937

Mean (Coyote)	494.83
Std. Dev. (Coyote)	400.48
		Cross-Sector (Selected Coefficients)
Rainfall	0.0036	0.0041	0.0079*	−0.0037	−0.0037
	(0.0038)	(0.0038)	(0.0047)	(0.0066)	(0.0083)
School		−0.0004	0.0045	−0.0475	−0.0475
		(0.0018)	(0.0039)	(0.0642)	(0.0523)
School × Rainfall			−0.0007 (0.0005)
Fixed effects	Community FE	Community FE	Community FE	Individual FE	Individual FE
State FE & Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cluster	State × Year	State × Year	State × Year	State × Year	Individual

R²	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.84	0.84
Number of observations	7,839	7,839	7,839	7,839	7,839

Mean (Sector)	0.40
Std. Dev. (Sector)	0.49

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Panel (1): Coyote costs (dollars) (adjusted for CPI (1982–1984)); Panel (2): Dichotomous variable for crossing the border in Tijuana. Independent variable: individual characteristics and rainfall in the home state. Sample: Migrants’ traveling years with illegal crossings.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

Table 4

Male migrants’ migration costs (networks) change with rainfall.

	Lodging from relatives	Contacting relatives	Receiving financial help
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Rainfall	0.0086**	0.0056	−0.0001
	(0.0042)	(0.0045)	(0.0045)
School	0.0022	0.0025	−0.0041**
	(0.0018)	(0.0019)	(0.0018)
Married	0.0410***	0.0431***	−0.0000
	(0.0147)	(0.0151)	(0.0139)
Age	−0.0025***	−0.0049***	−0.0053***
	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)
Child	−0.0102***	−0.0038	0.0008
	(0.0032)	(0.0032)	(0.0032)

R²	0.17	0.13	0.21

Rainfall	0.0141***	0.0106**	−0.0089*
	(0.0051)	(0.0050)	(0.0050)
School	0.0090**	0.0086**	−0.0148***
	(0.0043)	(0.0041)	(0.0040)
School × Rainfall	−0.0009*	−0.0008*	0.0015***
	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
Married	0.0414***	0.0434***	−0.0006
	(0.0147)	(0.0151)	(0.0138)
Age	−0.0025***	−0.0049***	−0.0054***
	(0.0007)	(0.0008)	(0.0007)
Child	−0.0100***	−0.0037	0.0006
	(0.0032)	(0.0032)	(0.0032)

R²	0.17	0.13	0.21
Number of observations	6,855	6,874	6,983

Fixed effects	Community FE	Community FE	Community FE
State FE & Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cluster	State × Year	State × Year	State × Year
Mean (dependent Var)	0.44	0.50	0.59
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)	0.50	0.50	0.49

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Column (1): Dichotomous variable for lodging from relatives upon arriving in the US; Column (2): Dichotomous variable for contacting relatives after arriving in the US; Column (3): Dichotomous variable for receiving financial help for US trips. Independent variable: individual characteristics and rainfall in the home state. Sample: Male household heads’ first or last trips to the US (Surveys before 2012 only asked either migrants’ first or last US trip. Surveys after 2012 recorded both the first and last trips for migrants traveled multiple times.). State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

Table 5

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall (selected coefficients).

Dependent variable	Movement decision (travel)			Migration status (in the US)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Rainfall	0.0001	0.0006***	0.0001	0.0003	0.0037***	0.0009***
	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)	(0.0003)
School	0.0014***	0.0031***		0.0065***	0.0150***
	(0.0001)	(0.0004)		(0.0003)	(0.0008)
School × Rainfall		−0.0002***			−0.0011***
		(0.00004)			(0.0001)
School squared	−0.0001***	−0.0002***		−0.0004***	−0.0009***
	(0.000001)	(0.00002)		(0.00002)	(0.00005)
School squared × Rainfall		0.00001***			0.0001***
		(0.000002)			(0.000005)
No school			−0.0092***			−0.0389***
			(0.0016)			(0.0031)
Middle			0.0025*			0.0177***
			(0.0014)			(0.0024)
High			0.0004			0.0206***
			(0.0018)			(0.0034)
College			−0.0099***			0.0082***
			(0.0017)			(0.0030)
Grad			−0.0163***			−0.0304***
			(0.0017)			(0.0029)
No school × Rainfall			0.0005***			0.0028***
			(0.0002)			(0.0003)
Middle × Rainfall			−0.0003**			−0.0015***
			(0.0001)			(0.0003)
High × Rainfall			−0.0003*			−0.0023***
			(0.0002)			(0.0003)
College × Rainfall			−0.0001			−0.0020***
			(0.0002)			(0.0003)
Grad × Rainfall			0.0005***			0.0009***
			(0.0002)			(0.0003)

R²	0.036	0.036	0.036	0.25	0.25	0.25
Number of observations	574,779	574,779	574,779	627,777	627,777	627,777

[i] Note: Dependent variable (Columns (1)–(3)): Travel=1 for actual migration trips, zero otherwise. Dependent variable (Columns (4)–(6)): In US=1 if migrants spend more than 1 month in the US, 0 otherwise. Independent variables: Rainfall in Mexico (state level) and its interactions with education-related variables. Sample (Columns (1)–(3)): male household heads’ years in Mexico and traveling years to the US (unbalanced panels). Sample (Columns (4)–(6)): male household heads’ life years (unbalanced panels). State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

The inverted U relationship between years of schooling and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.
Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected migration probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 5. (a) and (b) are from the movement decision (Travel) sample and the migration status (in the US) sample, respectively. The inverted U curves in droughts are sharper with higher vertexes than curves in normal years. Facing droughts, people with about 5–13 years of schooling increase their migration probabilities, while people with years of schooling fewer than 5 years or more than 15 years decrease their probabilities of migrating

The relationship between educational attainments and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.
Points on the solid line represent the coefficients on educational categories based on the migration regression results in Table 5. Points on the dashed line represent the changed coefficients on educational categories caused by a decrease in rainfall (439 mm). Both (a) and (b) show an inverted U relationship between migration probabilities and educational attainments. When rainfall decreases, people in categories Middle and High have higher probabilities to travel to or stay in the US, while people in categories No school, Primary, and Grad reveal lower migration probabilities.

The relationship between years of schooling and return probabilities changes with rainfall.
Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected or predicted return probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 6. Facing droughts, migrants with some years of schooling lower their return probabilities, while the least educated migrants and the most educated migrants increase their probabilities of return to Mexico.

Table 6

Return decision varies with rainfall by schooling (selected coefficients).

Dependent variable	Return (leave)		Return (arrive)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Rainfall	0.0007	0.0024	−0.0015	0.0004
	(0.0021)	(0.0019)	(0.0020)	(0.0016)
School	−0.0058*		−0.0056*
	(0.0033)		(0.0030)
School × Rainfall	0.0006		0.0007*
	(0.0004)		(0.0004)
School squared	0.0002		0.0003
	(0.0002)		(0.0002)
School squared × Rainfall	−0.00004		−0.0001**
	(0.00002)		(0.00002)
No school		0.0100		0.0109
		(0.0184)		(0.0160)
Middle		0.0042		0.0017
		(0.0109)		(0.0101)
High		−0.0397***		−0.0233**
		(0.0130)		(0.0117)
College		−0.0374***		−0.0239*
		(0.0143)		(0.0132)
Grad		0.0267		0.0382*
		(0.0229)		(0.0223)
No school × Rainfall		−0.0009		−0.0015
		(0.0024)		(0.0021)
Middle × Rainfall		−0.0007		−0.0003
		(0.0015)		(0.0014)
High × Rainfall		0.0035**		0.0016
		(0.0018)		(0.0015)
College × Rainfall		0.0009		−0.0002
		(0.0020)		(0.0018)
Grad × Rainfall		−0.0066**		−0.0082***
		(0.0027)		(0.0026)

R²	0.059	0.06	0.043	0.044
Number of observations	36,340	36,340	39,749	39,749

Mean (return)	13%		12%
Std. Dev. (return)	0.34		0.33

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Return = 1 if migrants return to Mexico, 0 if migrants stay in the US. Independent variables: Rainfall in Mexico (state level) and its interactions with education-related variables. State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A1

Relationship between rainfall and migration behavior.

				Migrated before
	Illegal	Using coyote	Cross alone	Mother	Father	Siblings

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Rainfall	0.0023	0.0043	−0.0028	0.0006	0.0000	−0.0033
	(0.0027)	(0.0031)	(0.0030)	(0.0010)	(0.0021)	(0.0032)
School	−0.0182***	−0.0161***	−0.0063***	0.0042***	0.0093***	0.0094***
	(0.0013)	(0.0014)	(0.0011)	(0.0007)	(0.0012)	(0.0014)
Married	−0.0283***	−0.0120	−0.0081	−0.0071*	−0.0118	−0.0015
	(0.0087)	(0.0099)	(0.0086)	(0.0038)	(0.0079)	(0.0094)
Age	−0.0086***	−0.0086***	−0.0014***	−0.0002	−0.0045***	−0.0014***
	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0004)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0005)
Child	0.0162***	0.0118***	0.0051***	−0.0006	−0.0017	0.0050**
	(0.0019)	(0.0023)	(0.0019)	(0.0007)	(0.0017)	(0.0023)
Migrated before	−0.0660***	−0.1025***	−0.0280***	0.0204***	0.0522***	0.1422***
	(0.0080)	(0.0090)	(0.0076)	(0.0035)	(0.0074)	(0.0088)

R²	0.38	0.33	0.16	0.07	0.27	0.23

Rainfall	−0.0033	−0.0006	−0.0059*	0.0038***	0.0052*	−0.0039
	(0.0033)	(0.0036)	(0.0033)	(0.0014)	(0.0027)	(0.0036)
School	−0.0256***	−0.0227***	−0.0104***	0.0084***	0.0160***	0.0086***
	(0.0029)	(0.0031)	(0.0024)	(0.0015)	(0.0026)	(0.0030)
School × Rainfall	0.0010***	0.0009**	0.0006*	−0.0006***	−0.0009***	0.0001
	(0.0003)	(0.0004)	(0.0003)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)
Married	−0.0286***	−0.0122	−0.0082	−0.0069*	−0.0115	−0.0016
	(0.0086)	(0.0099)	(0.0085)	(0.0038)	(0.0079)	(0.0094)
Age	−0.0087***	−0.0086***	−0.0014***	−0.0002	−0.0045***	−0.0014***
	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0004)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0005)
Child	0.0162***	0.0118***	0.0051***	−0.0006	−0.0017	0.0050**
	(0.0019)	(0.0023)	(0.0019)	(0.0007)	(0.0017)	(0.0023)
Migrated before	−0.0661***	−0.1026***	−0.0280***	0.0204***	0.0523***	0.1422***
	(0.0080)	(0.0090)	(0.0076)	(0.0035)	(0.0074)	(0.0088)

R²	0.38	0.33	0.16	0.072	0.27	0.23
Number of observations	12,736	12,826	12,826	12,652	12,077	12,826

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Dichotomous variables for illegal trips, using coyotes, crossing alone, and migrated family members. Sample: All migrants’ trips to the US. State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A2

Relationship between rainfall and illegal migration behavior.

	Using coyote	Cross alone

	(1)	(2)
Rainfall	0.0039	−0.0044
	(0.0036)	(0.0042)
School	−0.0033*	0.0018
	(0.0018)	(0.0018)
Married	0.0015	0.0061
	(0.0117)	(0.0127)
Age	−0.0039***	0.0018***
	(0.0007)	(0.0007)
Child	0.0030	0.0019
	(0.0028)	(0.0027)

R²	0.22	0.2

Rainfall	0.0021	−0.0017
	(0.0048)	(0.0050)
School	−0.0057	0.0053
	(0.0043)	(0.0041)
School × Rainfall	0.0003	−0.0005
	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
Married	0.0013	0.0063
	(0.0117)	(0.0127)
Age	−0.0039***	0.0018***
	(0.0007)	(0.0007)
Child	0.0030	0.0019
	(0.0028)	(0.0027)

R²	0.22	0.2
Number of observations	7,837	7,837

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Dichotomous variables for using coyotes and crossing alone. Independent variable: Rainfall in Mexico in migrants’ traveling year. Sample: All illegal migrants’ trips to the US. State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A3

Summary statistics of male household heads (agriculture versus. non-agriculture).

	Migration decision sample
	Agriculture		Non-agriculture
	Mean	Std. Dev.	Mean	Std. Dev.
Travel (%)	3	17	2	13
School (Year)	3.25	3.04	6.78	4.67
No school (0) (%)	27	44	10	29
Primary (1–5 years) (%)	43	50	25	44
Middle (6–8 years) (%)	22	41	30	46
High (9–11 years) (%)	6	23	17	37
College (12–15 years) (%)	2	13	10	31
Grad (16–25 years) (%)	0	6	8	28
Married (%)	70	46	70	46
Age (Years)	35.62	13.41	34.14	11.79
Child (number of children)	2.23	2.46	2.06	2.18
Migrated before (%)	21	41	15	36

Number of observations		234,816		308,411

	Migration status sample

In the US (%)	8	28	9	29
School (Year)	3.27	3.04	6.73	4.61
No school (0) (%)	27	44	9	29
Primary (1–5 years) (%)	44	50	26	44
Middle (6–8 years) (%)	22	41	30	46
High (9–11 years) (%)	6	23	17	37
College (12–15 years) (%)	2	13	10	30
Grad (16–25 years) (%)	0	6	8	27
Married (%)	70	46	69	46
Age (Years)	35.38	13.27	34.02	11.69
Child (number of children)	2.24	2.46	2.05	2.17
Migrated before (%)	28	45	23	42

Number of observations		254,594

[i] Source: Retrospective data from 1941 to 2012 on the migration history of male household heads in the MMP.

Table A4

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall - agriculture (selected coefficients).

Dependent variable	Movement decision (travel)			Migration status (in the US)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Rainfall	−0.0003	0.0008***	0.0001	0.0007*	0.0052***	0.0014***
	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
School	0.0030***	0.0066***		0.0089***	0.0225***
	(0.0003)	(0.0008)		(0.0005)	(0.0015)
School × Rainfall		−0.0004***			−0.0017***
		(0.0001)			(0.0002)
School squared	−0.0002***	−0.0004***		−0.0006***	−0.0012***
	(0.00002)	(0.0001)		(0.00004)	(0.0001)
School squared		0.00002***			0.0001***
× Rainfall		(0.000006)			(0.00001)
No school			−0.0112***			−0.0473***
			(0.0025)			(0.0043)
Middle			0.0115***			0.0356***
			(0.0029)			(0.0042)
High			0.0183***			0.0421***
			(0.0049)			(0.0065)
College			−0.0022			0.0260**
			(0.0078)			(0.0106)
Grad			−0.0272**			−0.0247
			(0.0111)			(0.0205)
No school × Rainfall			0.0006**			0.0033***
			(0.0003)			(0.0004)
Middle × Rainfall			−0.0011***			−0.0033***
			(0.0003)			(0.0004)
High × Rainfall			−0.0015***			−0.0049***
			(0.0005)			(0.0006)
College × Rainfall			−0.0001			−0.0037***
			(0.0008)			(0.0010)
Grad × Rainfall			0.0014			0.0018
			(0.0012)			(0.0022)

R²	0.044	0.044	0.044	0.22	0.23	0.23
Number of observations	234,816	234,816	234,816	254,594	254,594	254,594

Mean (dependent Var)		3%			8%
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)		0.17			0.28

[i] Note: Dependent variable (Columns (1)– (3)): Travel=1 for actual migration trips, zero otherwise. Dependent variable (Columns (4)– (6)): In US=1 if migrants spend more than one month in the US, zero otherwise. Independent Variables: Rainfall in Mexico (state level) and its interactions with education-related variables. Sample (Columns (1)– (3)): male household heads’ years in Mexico and traveling years to the US (unbalanced panels). Sample (Columns (4)– (6)): male household heads’ life years (unbalanced panels). State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A5

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall - non-agriculture (selected coefficients).

Dependent variable	Movement decision (travel)			Migration status (in the US)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Rainfall	0.0002	0.0008***	0.0001	−0.0002	0.0031***	0.0006
	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
School	0.0007***	0.0021***		0.0054***	0.0120***
	(0.0002)	(0.0003)		(0.0004)	(0.0008)
School × Rainfall		−0.0002***			−0.0009***
		(0.00004)			(0.0001)
School squared	−0.0001***	−0.0001***		−0.0003***	−0.0007***
	(0.000001)	(0.00002)		(0.00002)	(0.00004)
School squared x Rainfall		0.00001***			0.00004***
		(0.000002)			(0.000004)
No school			−0.0097***			−0.0371***
			(0.0022)			(0.0043)
Middle			0.0003			0.0117***
			(0.0015)			(0.0027)
High			−0.0006			0.0180***
			(0.0018)			(0.0038)
College			−0.0074***			0.0132***
			(0.0018)			(0.0037)
Grad			−0.0126***			−0.0270***
			(0.0018)			(0.0036)
No school × Rainfall			0.0009***			0.0029***
			(0.0003)			(0.0005)
Middle × Rainfall			−0.00004			−0.0011***
			(0.0002)			(0.0003)
High × Rainfall			−0.0001			−0.0021***
			(0.0002)			(0.0004)
College × Rainfall			0.0001			−0.0021***
			(0.0002)			(0.0004)
Grad × Rainfall			0.0005***			0.0005
			(0.0002)			(0.0004)

R²	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.3	0.3	0.3
Number of observations	308,411	308,411	308,411	340,364	340,364	340,364

Mean (dependent Var)		2%			9%
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)		0.13			0.29

[i] Note: Dependent variable (Columns (1)– (3)): Travel=1 for actual migration trips, zero otherwise. Dependent variable (Columns (4)– (6)): In US=1 if migrants spend more than one month in the US, zero otherwise. Independent Variables: Rainfall in Mexico (state level) and its interactions with education-related variables. Sample (Columns (1)– (3)): male household heads’ years in Mexico and traveling years to the US (unbalanced panels). Sample (Columns (4)– (6)): male household heads’ life years (unbalanced panels). State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A6

Cox model results: migration duration changes with rainfall (selected coefficients).

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Rainfall	1.0104 (0.0071)	1.0083 (0.0102)	1.0149* (0.0084)
School		0.9371*** (0.0169)
School × Rainfall		1.0025 (0.0023)
School squared		1.0041*** (0.0013)
School squared × Rainfall		0.9997* (0.0002)
No school			1.0737 (0.0894)
Middle			0.9154 (0.0508)
High			0.8678* (0.0675)
College			0.8163** (0.0838)
Grad			1.6970*** (0.3438)
No school × Rainfall			0.9926 (0.0110)
Middle × Rainfall			0.9961 (0.0074)
High × Rainfall			0.9828* (0.0100)
College × Rainfall			0.9972 (0.0130)
Grad × Rainfall			0.9467** (0.0228)

Number of observations	22,883	22,883	22,883

Mean (duration)	21.41 months
Std. Dev. (duration)	46.28

[i] Note: Dependent variable: Duration (months) in the US. Independent Variable: Rainfall in Mexico in migrants’ traveling year. Sample: All male migrants’ trips to the US. State FE, Year FE, and Community FE are included. Errors are cluster at State × Year level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Hazard ratios are reported in the table. Standard errors for coefficients, rather than hazard ratios, are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following:

[iii] ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, and *significant at 0.1 level.

Table A7

The insignificant effects of rainfall on years of schooling.

	Movement decision (travel)				Migration status (in the US)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Rainfall	–0.0026	–0.0026	0.0002	0.0002	–0.0015	–0.0015	0.0002	0.0002
	(0.0030)	(0.0030)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0027)	(0.0027)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)
Married	0.0465	0.0468	0.1135***	0.1134***	0.0476*	0.0478*	0.1050***	0.1050***
	(0.0299)	(0.0299)	(0.0040)	(0.0040)	(0.0289)	(0.0288)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)
Age	–0.1241***	–0.1244***	0.0009***	0.0009***	–0.1234***	–0.1234***	0.0009***	0.0009***
	(0.0011)	(0.0011)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0011)	(0.0011)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Child	–0.1366***	–0.1367***	0.0009***	0.0008***	–0.1403***	–0.1402***	0.0007***	0.0007***
	(0.0046)	(0.0046)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0044)	(0.0044)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
Migrated before	–0.3278***	–0.3150***	–0.0284***	–0.0281***	–0.2970***	–0.3036***	–0.0200***	–0.0212***
	(0.0156)	(0.0155)	(0.0051)	(0.0052)	(0.0163)	(0.0152)	(0.0043)	(0.0043)
Movement decision (travel)		–0.2916***		0.0034
		(0.0315)		(0.0028)
Migration status (in the US)						0.0231		0.0064**
						(0.0180)		(0.0031)

Rainfall	–0.0043	–0.0044	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	(0.0002	–0.0000	–0.0000
	(0.0089)	(0.0089)	(0.0012)	(0.0012)	(0.0084)	(0.0084)	(0.0011)	(0.0011)
Rainfall squared	0.0001	0.0001	–0.0000	–0.0000	–0.0001	–0.0001	0.0000	0.0000
	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)

Fixed effects	Community	Community	Individual	Individual	Community	Community	Individual	Individual
State FE & Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Cluster	State × Year	State × Year	Individual	Individual	State × Year	State × Year	Individual	Individual

R²	0.37	0.37	0.99	0.99	0.37	0.37	1	1
Number of observations	574,779	574,779	574,779	574,779	627,777	627,777	627,777	627,777

[i] Note: Dependent variable: School (Years of schooling). Independent variable: individual characteristics and rainfall in home state. Sample (Columns (1)– (4)): male household heads’ years in Mexico and traveling years to the US (unbalanced panels). Sample (Columns (5)–(8)): male household heads’ life years (unbalanced panels). State FE,Year FE, and Community FE (or Individual FE) are included. Errors are cluster at State x Year or Individual level.

[ii] Source: The MMP. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Stars signify the following: ***significant at 0.01, **significant at 0.05 level, *significant at 0.1 level.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0022 | Journal eISSN: 2520-1786

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Language: English

Published on: Dec 31, 2020

Published by: Sciendo

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

rainfall,