Consequences of immigrating during a recession: Evidence from the US Refugee Resettlement program

Demographics	1988–1991	1992–1995	1996–1999	2000–2004	All years
Years of education	10.19	10.38	10.74	10.08	10.36
% Female	50.62	51.38	49.76	51.52	50.98
Age at arrival	31.47	32.92	32.09	32.12	32.38
% Fluent in English	9.09	7.33	10.71	14.29	9.18
% Disabled	10.73	13.13	8.19	8.97	11.15
% Married	61.01	54.09	58.33	57.64	56.67
% Have children	54.88	56.44	61.32	67.96	58.84
% From Africa	1.64	5.23	10.26	13.80	6.80
% From Asia	90.91	86.12	50.51	53.87	75.70
% From Europe	7.45	8.66	39.10	31.76	17.38
% From South America	0	0	0.13	0.56	0.11
Individuals	3,289	8,573	3,069	2,840	17,771

Table 2

Years since migration by panel iteration

Years since	Panel iteration
Migration	1	2	3	4	5	Total
1 Year	7,442	0	0	0	0	7,442
2 Years	3,619	4,202	0	0	0	7,821
3 Years	2,639	1,546	3,596	0	0	7,781
4 Years	2,147	1,225	1,247	3,089	0	7,708
5 Years	1,924	907	976	1,118	2,398	7,323
Total	17,771	7,880	5,819	4,207	2,398	38,075

Log new arrivals by National Unemployment Rate (1980–2015).
Log total immigrants are based on author estimates of total immigration by year using IPUMS American Community Survey data for 2011–2016 (Ruggles et al., 2017). Log total refugees are based on estimates of total refugee migration by fiscal year from the Migration Policy Institute (Zong et al., 2017). Regressions are estimates of log totals for each population regressed on annual national unemployment rates for arrival years. Standard errors are clustered at the year-of-arrival level.

Table 3

Test of balance for continuous treatments

	(1)	(2)
	Arrival	Arrival
	National	State
	Unemp. rate	Unemp. rate
Age	−0.0012	−0.0008
	(0.0011)	(0.0014)
English fluency	0.0056	0.0224
	(0.0396)	(0.0455)
Years of education	0.0065+	0.0050
	(0.0035)	(0.0053)
Gender	0.0107	−0.0094
	(0.0115)	(0.0174)
Disability	0.0150	0.1023
	(0.0431)	(0.0686)
Married	0.0049	0.0955*
	(0.0309)	(0.0410)
Any Children	0.0240	0.0057
	(0.0347)	(0.0494)
Country-of-Origin FE	*	*
Date-of-Arrival FE		*
Observations	31,969	31,969
Adj. R²	0.213	0.509

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level for national unemployment rate estimates. Standard errors are clustered at the state-of-placement-by-date-of-arrival level for state unemployment rate estimates.

Average outcomes by Arrival-National Unemployment Rate.
*Source*: I estimated using the Annual Survey of Refugees data. The median arrival-national unemployment rate is 5.9. The gap in the average arrival-national unemployment rate between the aggregate above and below-median groups is roughly two percentage points. Employment is based on a binary variable for employment status. Hourly wages are conditional on employment and measured in real 2000 US dollars. The percentage of households is based on a binary variable defining whether or not at least one member of a household collected a particular benefit (AFDC/TANF, SNAP) in the previous year.

Table 4

Main results

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages
ue_i	−0.0157**		−0.0198**
	(0.0055)		(0.0061)
1 year, ue_i		0.0168		−0.0153+
		(0.0104)		(0.0087)
2 years, ue_i		−0.0113		−0.0240**
		(0.0073)		(0.0079)
3 years, ue_i		−0.0225*		−0.0088
		(0.0089)		(0.0075)
4 years, ue_i		−0.0360***		−0.0211*
		(0.0081)		(0.0091)
5 years, ue_i		−0.0208*		−0.0251**
		(0.0085)		(0.0090)
Observations	31,815	31,815	13,772	13,772
Adj. R²	0.202	0.203	0.251	0.251

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level. Robustness tables for columns 2 and 4 can be found in Tables A1 and A2 in Appendix, respectively.

Table 5

Main results by gender

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
	Male	Male	Male	Male	Female	Female	Female	Female
	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages
ue_i	-0.0170*		-0.0201**		-0.0143*		-0.0198**
	(0.0068)		(0.0075)		(0.0070)		(0.0071)
1 year, ue_i		0.0044		-0.0161		0.0293*		-0.0153
		(0.0132)		(0.0114)		(0.0119)		(0.0100)
2 years, ue_i		-0.0153		-0.0270**		-0.0072		-0.0216*
		(0.0099)		(0.0104)		(0.0089)		(0.0101)
3 years, ue_i		-0.0258*		-0.0030		-0.0190+		-0.0171*
		(0.0104)		(0.0100)		(0.0113)		(0.0087)
4 years, ue_i		-0.0293**		-0.0198+		-0.0429***		-0.0218+
		(0.0097)		(0.0107)		(0.0117)		(0.0112)
5 years, ue_i		-0.0169		-0.0285*		-0.0240*		-0.0208+
		(0.0112)		(0.0111)		(0.0112)		(0.0115)
Observations	15,748	15,748	7,504	7,504	16,067	16,067	6,268	6,268
Adj. R²	0.203	0.203	0.248	0.249	0.191	0.192	0.232	0.232

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 6

Welfare utilization

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	AFDC/TANF	AFDC/TANF	SNAP	SNAP
ue_i	−0.0019		0.0094
	(0.0067)		(0.0080)
1 year, ue_i		−0.0286*		−0.0416**
		(0.0126)		(0.0157)
2 years, ue_i		0.0098		0.0133
		(0.0111)		(0.0140)
3 years, ue_i		−0.0026		0.0199+
		(0.0095)		(0.0119)
4 years, ue_i		0.0109		0.0372**
		(0.0085)		(0.0129)
5 years, ue_i		−0.0052		0.0101
		(0.0096)		(0.0133)
Observations	31,751	31,751	31,780	31,780
Adj. R²	0.186	0.187	0.281	0.283

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 7

Heterogeneity within employment estimates

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	No HS	HS	College	No HS	HS	College
	Males	Males	Males	Females	Females	Females
ue_i	−0.0149	−0.0190+	−0.0101	0.0032	−0.0352**	−0.0423+
	(0.0094)	(0.0099)	(0.0231)	(0.0100)	(0.0107)	(0.0246)
Observations	6,596	7,762	1,390	7,980	6,984	1,103
Adj. R²	0.177	0.187	0.270	0.165	0.185	0.224

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	No HS	HS	College	No HS	HS	College
	Males	Males	Males	Females	Females	Females
1 year, ue_i	0.0130	0.0143	−0.0632	0.0627***	0.0093	−0.0856+
	(0.0206)	(0.0169)	(0.0433)	(0.0161)	(0.0198)	(0.0478)
2 years, ue_i	−0.0078	−0.0131	−0.0373	0.0081	−0.0224	−0.0118
	(0.0148)	(0.0143)	(0.0330)	(0.0128)	(0.0148)	(0.0353)
3 years, ue_i	−0.0339*	−0.0246	0.0050	−0.0031	−0.0347*	−0.0582+
	(0.0151)	(0.0151)	(0.0303)	(0.0155)	(0.0158)	(0.0307)
4 years, ue_i	−0.0226	−0.0463***	0.0400	−0.0382*	−0.0596***	−0.0317
	(0.0143)	(0.0127)	(0.0324)	(0.0160)	(0.0158)	(0.0385)
5 years, ue_i	−0.0210	−0.0202	0.0101	−0.0054	−0.0549***	−0.0357
	(0.0175)	(0.0148)	(0.0367)	(0.0162)	(0.0149)	(0.0472)
Observations	6,596	7,762	1,390	7,980	6,984	1,103
Adj. R²	0.178	0.187	0.271	0.168	0.186	0.223

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 8

Heterogeneity within log wage estimates

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	No HS	HS	College	No HS	HS	College
	Males	Males	Males	Females	Females	Females
ue_i	−0.0070	−0.0282**	−0.0668**	−0.0191*	−0.0082	−0.0799*
	(0.0094)	(0.0098)	(0.0251)	(0.0076)	(0.0097)	(0.0321)
Observations	2,634	4,224	646	2,641	3,194	433
Adj. R²	0.200	0.276	0.236	0.196	0.223	0.205

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	No HS	HS	College	No HS	HS	College
	Males	Males	Males	Females	Females	Females
1 year, ue_i	−0.0011	−0.0150	−0.0967**	−0.0071	0.0026	−0.1520**
	(0.0161)	(0.0164)	(0.0340)	(0.0123)	(0.0146)	(0.0510)
2 years, ue_i	−0.0001	−0.0385**	−0.0641+	−0.0191+	−0.0096	−0.0455
	(0.0149)	(0.0136)	(0.0373)	(0.0105)	(0.0149)	(0.0465)
3 years, ue_i	−0.0007	−0.0067	−0.0480	−0.0368***	0.0064	−0.0746+
	(0.0130)	(0.0129)	(0.0352)	(0.0109)	(0.0112)	(0.0443)
4 years, ue_i	−0.0097	−0.0251+	−0.0466	−0.0214+	−0.0197	−0.0116
	(0.0143)	(0.0133)	(0.0466)	(0.0119)	(0.0154)	(0.0506)
5 years, ue_i	−0.0190	−0.0420**	−0.0741	−0.0111	−0.0123	−0.1264*
	(0.0167)	(0.0136)	(0.0475)	(0.0146)	(0.0149)	(0.0572)
Observations	2,634	4,224	646	2,641	3,194	433
Adj. R²	0.199	0.276	0.232	0.197	0.223	0.211

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 9

Summary statistics by years since migration

Above median	1	2	3	4	5	All
Years of education	10.80	10.84	10.73	10.34	10.04	10.58
% Female	51.33	51.24	50.96	49.41	50.89	50.79
Age at arrival	34.29	33.74	32.94	32.00	31.56	33.01
% Fluent in English	9.16	6.86	8.50	8.39	6.63	7.97
% Disabled	10.85	11.55	10.88	10.43	11.17	10.98
% Married	62.61	61.99	61.92	60.01	60.96	61.55
% Have children	63.50	62.18	62.76	61.64	60.35	62.17

Below median	1	2	3	4	5	All

Years of education	10.34	10.83	10.84	10.87	10.63	10.72
% Female	50.28	50.62	51.32	50.39	50.62	50.67
Age at arrival	34.78	34.53	33.94	33.47	32.23	33.71
% Fluent in English	8.71	8.33	6.74	5.29	4.94	6.66
% Disabled	14.00	13.70	12.32	11.81	10.06	12.25
% Married	56.30	58.45	58.74	57.19	55.33	57.22
% Have children	57.51	54.33	54.40	54.33	56.37	55.31

Table 10

Test for changes in composition

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages
ue_i	0.0052*		0.0010
	(0.0023)		(0.0015)
1 year, ue_i		−0.0092*		−0.0003
		(0.0044)		(0.0026)
2 years, ue_i		0.0026		0.0014
		(0.0027)		(0.0017)
3 years, ue_i		0.0045		0.0003
		(0.0028)		(0.0019)
4 years, ue_i		0.0079*		−0.0009
		(0.0034)		(0.0021)
5 years, ue_i		0.0155***		0.0035+
		(0.0038)		(0.0020)
Observations	31,974	31,974	31,974	31,974
Adj. R²	0.077	0.078	0.197	0.197

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 11

Main results for non-movers

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages
ue_i	−0.0227**		−0.0263***
	(0.0071)		(0.0078)
1 year, ue_i		0.0213		−0.0275*
		(0.0145)		(0.0128)
2 years, ue_i		−0.0012		−0.0311**
		(0.0095)		(0.0106)
3 years, ue_i		−0.0380**		−0.0135
		(0.0130)		(0.0111)
4 years, ue_i		−0.0538***		−0.0330**
		(0.0120)		(0.0115)
5 years, ue_i		−0.0345**		−0.0229*
		(0.0114)		(0.0115)
Observations	18,289	18,289	8,190	8,190
Adj. R²	0.192	0.193	0.246	0.246

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table 12

State unemployment estimates

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Employment	Employment	Log wages	Log wages
ue_si	0.0049		−0.0140*
	(0.0067)		(0.0060)
1 year, ue_si		0.0017		−0.0249***
		(0.0085)		(0.0071)
2 years, ue_si		−0.0080		−0.0238***
		(0.0075)		(0.0071)
3 years, ue_si		0.0046		−0.0153*
		(0.0076)		(0.0068)
4 years, ue_si		0.0071		−0.0117+
		(0.0076)		(0.0066)
5 years, ue_si		0.0137+		−0.0067
		(0.0072)		(0.0063)
Observations	31,815	31,815	13,772	13,772
Adj. R²	0.221	0.221	0.278	0.278

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the state-of-placement-by-date-of-arrival level.

Table 13

State unemployment estimates using pioneers

	Nationality-by-state pioneers
	(1)	(2)
	Employment	Log wages
ue_si	−0.0048	−0.0359+
	(0.0155)	(0.0183)
Observations	4,800	2,169
Adj. R²	0.292	0.332
1 year, ue_si	0.0148	−0.0579*
	(0.0237)	(0.0242)
2 years, ue_si	−0.0114	−0.0408+
	(0.0181)	(0.0225)
3 years, ue_si	−0.0006	−0.0368+
	(0.0174)	(0.0204)
4 years, ue_si	−0.0026	−0.0325
	(0.0177)	(0.0200)
5 years, ue_si	−0.0143	−0.0323+
	(0.0170)	(0.0187)
Observations	4,800	2,169
Adj. R²	0.293	0.332

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Nationality-by-state Pioneers are refugees who are resettled in a particular state within 2 years of their nationality’s first appearance in that state either in the data or in previous ORR Annual reports.

Standard errors are clustered at the state-of-placement-by-date-of-arrival level.

Table 14

State unemployment estimates using pioneers

	Nationality pioneers
	(3)	(4)
	Employment	Log wages
ue_si	−0.0314	−0.1250**
	(0.0259)	(0.0419)
Observations	1,739	681
Adj. R²	0.298	0.347
1 year, ue_si	0.0028	−0.1322+
	(0.0440)	(0.0713)
2 years, ue_si	−0.0621*	−0.1058*
	(0.0312)	(0.0513)
3 years, ue_si	−0.0305	−0.1321**
	(0.0289)	(0.0461)
4 years, ue_si	−0.0241	−0.1387**
	(0.0313)	(0.0419)
5 years, ue_si	−0.0582+	−0.1245**
	(0.0306)	(0.0445)
Observations	1,739	681
Adj. R²	0.300	0.343

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Nationality Pioneers are refugees who are resettled within 2 years of their nationality’s first appearance in the US in general, either in the data or in previous ORR Annual reports.

Standard errors are clustered at the state-of-placement-by-date-of-arrival level.

Table A1

Employment estimates-national unemployment rate treatment (robustness table for results found in Column 2 of Table 3)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
1 year, ue_i	0.0078	0.0035	0.0041	0.0057	0.0073	0.0105	0.0151	0.0168
	(0.0107)	(0.0106)	(0.0106)	(0.0106)	(0.0105)	(0.0106)	(0.0104)	(0.0104)
2 years, ue_i	-0.0087	-0.0149+	-0.0145+	-0.0139+	-0.0141+	-0.0142+	-0.0117	-0.0113
	(0.0080)	(0.0077)	(0.0076)	(0.0076)	(0.0076)	(0.0074)	(0.0074)	(0.0073)
3 years, ue_i	-0.0183*	-0.0234*	-0.0232*	-0.0230*	-0.0224*	-0.0249**	-0.0228*	-0.0225*
	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0090)	(0.0091)	(0.0090)	(0.0089)
4 years, ue_i	-0.0285***	-0.0331***	-0.0322***	-0.0332***	-0.0326***	-0.0366***	-0.0359***	-0.0360***
	(0.0083)	(0.0083)	(0.0082)	(0.0082)	(0.0082)	(0.0082)	(0.0082)	(0.0081)
5 years, ue_i	-0.0055	-0.0129	-0.0129	-0.0144+	-0. 0148+	-0.0210*	-0.0212*	-0.0208*
	(0.0091)	(0.0089)	(0.0088)	(0.0087)	(0.0086)	(0.0087)	(0.0085)	(0.0085)
Country of origin	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Years of education		*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Gender			*	*	*	*	*	*
Age				*	*	*	*	*
English at arrival					*	*	*	*
Disabled at arrival						*	*	*
Married at arrival							*	*
Any children at arrival								*
Years since migration FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Contemp. year FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Month of arrival FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Contemp. state UR	-0.0541***	-0.0539***	-0.0540***	-0.0535***	-0.0536***	-0.0518***	-0.0530***	-0.0529***
	(0.0039)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.0037)	(0.0038)	(0.0039)	(0.0039)
Observations	31,815	31,815	31,815	31,815	31,815	31,815	31,815	31,815
Adj. R²	0.116	0.161	0.170	0.174	0.175	0.195	0.201	0.203

[i] +0.1; *0.05; **0.01; ***0.001.

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the date-of-arrival level.

Table A2

Log wage estimates—national unemployment rate treatment (robustness table for results found in column 4 of Table 3)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
1 year, ue_si	-0.0215*	-0.0221*	-0.0200*	-0.0199*	-0.0182*	-0.0181*	-0.0153+	-0.0153+
	(0.0095)	(0.0088)	(0.0087)	(0.0088)	(0.0087)	(0.0087)	(0.0087)	(0.0087)
2 years, ue_si	-0.0234**	-0.0251**	-0.0243**	-0.0246**	-0.0252**	-0.0253**	-0.0240**	-0.0240**
	(0.0087)	(0.0080)	(0.0080)	(0.0081)	(0.0080)	(0.0080)	(0.0079)	(0.0079)
3 years, ue_si	-0.0089	-0.0099	-0.0097	-0.0098	-0.0092	-0.0092	-0.0088	-0.0088
	(0.0083)	(0.0075)	(0.0076)	(0.0076)	(0.0076)	(0.0076)	(0.0075)	(0.0075)
4 years, ue_si	-0.0218*	-0.0199*	-0.0201*	-0.0207*	-0.0203*	-0.0205*	-0.0211*	-0.0211*
	(0.0097)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)	(0.0091)
5 years, ue_si	-0.0181+	-0.0205*	-0.0222*	-0.0227*	-0.0237**	-0.0239**	-0.0251**	-0.0251**
	(0.0095)	(0.0092)	(0.0090)	(0.0090)	(0.0089)	(0.0090)	(0.0090)	(0.0090)
Country of origin	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Years of education		*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Gender			*	*	*	*	*	*
Age				*	*	*	*	*
English at arrival					*	*	*	*
Disabled at arrival						*	*	*
Married at arrival							*	*
Any children at arrival								*
Years since migration FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Contemp. year FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Month of arrival FE	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Contemp. state UR	-0.0183***	-0.0190***	-0.0200***	-0.0204***	-0.0205***	-0.0205***	-0.0204***	-0.0204***
	(0.0036)	(0.0036)	(0.0035)	(0.0035)	(0.0035)	(0.0035)	(0.0035)	(0.0035)
Observations	13,772	13,772	13,772	13,772	13,772	13,772	13,772	13,772
Adj. R²	0.178	0.221	0.243	0.244	0.247	0.247	0.251	0.251