Identifying Syrian refugees in Turkish microdata

Variable	Migrant families (2004–2010)	Migrants families (2011–2017)	Ratio (ex-post/ex-ante)
Family size	1.68	3.34	2.00
Proportion of 0–14	0.09	0.20	2.23
Proportion of 15–24	0.16	0.24	1.50
Proportion of 15+ women	0.75	0.63	0.83
Existence of a widow	0.03	0.08	2.37
Existence tertiary educ.	0.41	0.23	0.55
Existence of 15–24 students	0.15	0.10	0.65
Existence of 15+ female workers	0.27	0.13	0.50
Proportion of 15+ NEETs	0.50	0.59	1.18
Existence of workers	0.42	0.55	1.31
Number of informal workers	0.18	0.63	3.50
Existence of male garment workers	0.02	0.11	6.61
Existence of non-migrants	0.57	0.27	0.47

[i] Sources: Household Labour Force Survey 2017 and author’s own calculations.

Notes: The table shows averages at the family level for a number of variables. The wording “existence” refers to the existence of at least one person with the mentioned characteristic in the household. In all cases, it can be rejected that the difference in means is equal to zero at the 95% confidence level.

Table 2

Variable description

Mnemonic	Short description	Full description
kids	Prop. 0–14	Proportion of people aged 0–14 in the family.
young	Prop. 15–24	Proportion of people aged 15–24 in the family.
women	Prop. 15+ women	Proportion of women among 15+ family members.
widow	Exist widows	Existence of at least one widow in the family.
university	Exist 15+ tertiary educ.	Existence of at least one 15+ university graduate.
student	Exist 15–24 students	Existence of at least one student aged 15–24.
fem work	Exist 15+ female workers	Existence of at least one working women.
NEET	Prop. 15+ NEETs	Proportion of NEETs among 15+ family members.
workers	Exist workers	Existence of at least one 15+ worker in the family.
informal	Number informal workers	Number of 15+ informal workers in the family.
garment	Exist male garment worker	Existence of at least one 15+ male garment worker.
turkish	Exist nonmigrants	Existence of at least one nonmigrant in the family.

[i] Sources: Household Labour Force Survey 2017 and author’s own calculations.

Note: The table describes the variables used in Equation (1).

Table 3

Estimates of the probability of being a “standard” migrant family, marginal effects

Variable	Marginal effect	Variable	Marginal effect
Prop. 0–14	−0.05	Exist 15+ female workers	0.10***
Prop. 15–24	−0.19***	Prop. 15+ NEETs	−0.15***
Prop. 15+ women	0.02	Exist 15+ workers	−0.09**
Exist widows	−0.04	Number of informal workers	−0.10***
Exist 15+ tertiary education	0.05**	Exist male garment worker	−0.07
Exist 15–24 students	0.12**	Exist nonmigrants	0.12***

[i] Notes: Significance: ** at 5%, *** at 1%. Pseudo R²: 0.1715. Estimated with 1,756 families.

Propensity scores, before and after matching: (a) before matching and (b) after matching.
*Sources*: Household Labour Force Survey 2017 and author’s own calculations.
*Notes*: The box plots show propensity scores distributions. The three horizontal lines of the blue boxes denote the third quantile, the median, and the first quantile, from top to bottom. (a) shows the distribution before matching for foreign-born families who arrived, respectively, between 2004 and 2010 and between 2011 and 2017. (b) splits the scores of 2011–2017 migrant families between those families matched (ex-post “standard” migrant families) and those unmatched (Syrian families).

Table 4

Summary statistics at the family level: after matching

Variable	“Standard” migrant families (2004–2010)	“Standard” migrant families (2011–2017)	Syrian families
Family size	1.67	1.91	3.88
Proportion of 0–14	0.09	0.09	0.25
Proportion of 15–24	0.16	0.15	0.27
Proportion of 15+ women	0.75	0.77	0.57
Existence of a widow	0.03	0.04	0.09
Existence tertiary educ.	0.41	0.38	0.17
Existence of 15–24 students	0.14	0.14	0.07
Existence of 15+ female workers	0.26	0.25	0.07
Proportion of 15+ NEETs	0.50	0.51	0.62
Existence of workers	0.42	0.39	0.61
Number of informal workers	0.18	0.16	0.81
Existence of male garment workers	0.02	0.02	0.14
Existence of non-migrants	0.57	0.55	0.16

[i] Notes: The table shows averages for a number of variables at the family level. The term “existence” refers to the existence of at least one person with the mentioned characteristic. In all cases, it can be rejected that the difference in means between Syrian families and ex-post “standard” migrant families is equal to zero at the 95% confidence level.

Syrian refugees’ population pyramid, HLFS vs. DGMM.
*Sources*: Household Labour Force Survey 2017, Directorate General of Migration Management, and author’s own calculations.
*Notes*: The figure shows the proportion of Syrian refugees in a number of age groups from two sources: the HLFS 2017 and the DGMM. A chi-square test cannot reject that the HLFS and DGMM data are drawn from the same distribution. It also shows the proportion of ex-post “standard” migrants for comparison.

Table A1

Construction of the variable ‘year of arrival to Turkey’.

Variable	Subpopulation	Observed HLFS 2017
buil yil	dogum yer=Abroad	8,310
	buil yasama=No*
	onceki ikamet=Abroad
tr yil	dogum yer=Abroad	1,377
	buil yasama=No
	onceki ikamet=Turkey
	yurtdisi durum=Yes

[i] Notes: *In practice, it is not possible for a person born abroad to have lived permanently in the same Turkish province his/her whole life. There is only one observation (out of 10,032) in the 2017 HLFS for which a Yes is recorded in ‘buil yasama’ despite being born abroad and it is disregarded.

Born abroad by year of arrival to Turkey.

Table B1

Re-weighting by subregion (NUTS-2), 2017 HLFS

	Turkish		Syrian refugees
Subregion	Provinces	Adj. factor	Inv. prob.	Adj. weight
İstanbul	İstanbul	1.0203	338	1,511
Tekirdağ	Tekirdağ, Edirne, Kırklareli	1.0024	109	485
Balıkesir	Balıkesir, Ç anakkale	1.0020	96	428
İzmir	İzmir	1.0076	196	876
Aydın	Aydın, Denizli, Mŭgla	1.0079	157	700
Manisa	Manisa, Afyon, Kütahya, Uşak	1.0041	171	765
Bursa	Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik	1.0207	195	871
Kocaeli	Kocaeli, Sakarya, Düzce, Bolu, Yalova	1.0032	188	838
Ankara	Ankara	1.0077	192	856
Konya	Konya, Karaman	1.0429	83	370
Antalya	Antalya, Isparta, Burdur	1.0081	166	743
Adana	Adana, Mersin	1.0268	183	817
Hatay	Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye	1.0143	187	837
Kırıkkale	Kırıkkale, Aksaray	1.0263	85	378
	Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir
Kayseri	Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat	1.0075	160	716
Zonguldak	Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın	1.0008	110	490
Kastamonu	Kastamonu, Ç ankırı, Sinop	1.0029	55	246
Samsun	Samsun, Tokat, Ç orum, Amasya	1.0026	139	620
Trabzon	Trabzon, Ordu, Giresun Rize, Artvin, Gümüşhane	1.0003	124	552
Erzurum	Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt	1.0016	75	335
Ağrı	Ağrı, Kars, Iğdır, Ardahan	1.0009	77	343
Malatya	Malatya, Elazığ, Bingöl, Tunceli	1.0008	120	537
Van	Van, Muş, Bitlis, Hakkâri	1.0004	92	411
Gaziantep	Gaziantep, Adıyaman, Kilis	1.0255	144	642
Şanlıurfa	Şanlıurfa, Diyarbakır	1.0161	177	791
Mardin	Mardin, Batman, Şırnak, Siirt	1.0019	159	711

[i] Notes: The numbers from the column “Adj. weight” multiply the numbers of the column “Inv. prob.” by a factor of 4.4673; the multiplications might not be added up in the table due to rounding.

Source: Household Labour Force Survey 2017 and author’s own calculations.

Table C1

Syrian refugees under temporary protection in Turkey by subregion (NUTS-2), 2017

	Syrian refugees in Turkey
Subregion	Provinces	Official	HLFS estimated	Difference
İstanbul	İstanbul	497,135	1,148,199	651,064
Bursa	Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik	113,989	260,277	146,288
Konya	Konya, Karaman	76,744	198,198	121,454
Kırıkkale	Kırıkkale, Aksaray	15,055	80,724	65,669
	Niğde, Nevşehir, Kırşehir
Adana	Adana, Mersin	308,641	358,830	50,189
Antalya	Antalya, Isparta, Burdur	15,438	60,270	44,832
Aydın	Aydın, Denizli, Mŭgla	26,483	69,100	42,617
Manisa	Manisa, Afyon, Kütahya, Uşak	13,554	54,504	40,950
Ankara	Ankara	75,881	111,672	35,791
Samsun	Samsun, Tokat, Ç orum, Amasya	7,579	29,328	21,749
Erzurum	Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt	950	9,483	8,533
Kastamonu	Kastamonu, Ç ankırı, Sinop	1,449	8,748	7,299
Balıkesir	Balıkesir, Ç anakkale	6,222	11,760	5,538
Kocaeli	Kocaeli, Sakarya, Düzce, Bolu, Yalova	46,533	51,336	4,803
Ağrı	Ağrı, Kars, Iğdır, Ardahan	1,333	3,696	2,363
Zonguldak	Zonguldak, Karabük, Bartın	883	2,892	2,009
Tekirdağ	Tekirdağ, Edirne, Kırklareli	15,719	16,730	1,011
Van	Van, Muş, Bitlis, Hakkâri	4,662	5,642	980
Trabzon	Trabzon, Ordu, Giresun Rize, Artvin, Gümüşhane	4,027	4,352	325
İzmir	İzmir	112,881	106,764	−6,117
Malatya	Malatya, Elazığ, Bingöl, Tunceli	29,689	7,965	−21,724
Kayseri	Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat	67,207	42,480	−24,727
Mardin	Mardin, Batman, Şırnak, Siirt	136,673	12,672	−124,001
Şanlıurfa	Şanlıurfa, Diyarbakır	466,811	180,728	−286,083
Gaziantep	Gaziantep, Adıyaman, Kilis	497,371	208,257	−289,114
Hatay	Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye	536,986	143,244	−393,742

[i] Notes: Official figures on Syrian refugees under temporary protection from the DGMM as of July 2017. Estimated figures are calculated with the help of adjusted survey weights that take into account the proportion of the population sampled in each subregion as well as a correction factor. Differences of less than 20,000 should be disregarded due to the small sample size.