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Figure A1
Figure A2
Figure B1
Figure B2
Excluding immigration distribution tails
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||
| Immigration | –4.474*** (0.806) | –4.889*** (1.386) | 3.476** (1.352) | 4.011*** (1.458) |
| Observations | 189 | 189 | 189 | 189 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.336 | 0.635 | ||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 12.18 | 12.18 | ||
Main results—provincial elections
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||||
| Immigration | –1.989*** (0.288) | –2.204*** (0.514) | –2.048*** (0.452) | –2.985*** (0.967) | 1.936*** (0.580) | 2.573*** (0.883) | 1.289** (0.502) | 2.115** (0.958) |
| Urban population | –0.538*** (0.167) | –0.594*** (0.159) | –0.264 (0.208) | –0.214 (0.187) | ||||
| Female population | –2.409** (1.197) | –2.012* (1.074) | 0.432 (0.928) | 0.0816 (0.975) | ||||
| Unemployment rate | 0.493* (0.287) | 0.281 (0.302) | 0.364 (0.388) | 0.551 (0.415) | ||||
| Internal migration | 0.183 (0.363) | 0.303 (0.399) | 0.191 (0.273) | 0.0856 (0.346) | ||||
| Ethnic diversity (HHI) | 0.0474 (0.221) | 0.102 (0.223) | 0.785** (0.340) | 0.737** (0.330) | ||||
| Electricity access | 0.178 (0.117) | 0.0451 (0.125) | –0.265*** (0.0625) | –0.147* (0.0888) | ||||
| No schooling | –0.164 (0.308) | –0.338 (0.323) | –0.492*** (0.163) | –0.338** (0.166) | ||||
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.291 | 0.354 | 0.370 | 0.526 | ||||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 20.40 | 14.18 | 20.40 | 14.18 | ||||
Immigrant skill level
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||||
| Low-skill immigration | –2.770*** (0.590) | –5.420*** (2.044) | 1.285** (0.489) | 3.485* (1.859) | ||||
| High-skill immigration | –6.692*** (1.624) | –7.733*** (2.292) | 4.840** (2.131) | 4.972** (2.124) | ||||
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.299 | 0.371 | 0.451 | 0.575 | ||||
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| KP F-statistic | 10.05 | 19.23 | 10.05 | 19.23 | ||||
Racial background of immigrants
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||
| Immigration—Whites | −3.413 (6.390) | − | 0.111 (3.537) | |||
| Immigration—Blacks | −2.006*** (0.455) | 1.028** (0.406) | ||||
| Immigration—Others | −19.44*** (2.872) | 16.84*** (3.807) | ||||
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.158 | 0.308 | 0.450 | 0.403 | 0.465 | 0.741 |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD |
Channels—DA
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable: DA vote share | ||||||||||||
| Immigration | –0.0253 | 1.873* | 1.798 | –0.708 | –0.767 | –0.807 | –0.614 | 2.149 | 0.624** | 1.853*** | 0.345 | 1.210** |
| (0.239) | (0.981) | (1.135) | (0.638) | (0.612) | (0.730) | (0.429) | (1.397) | (0.254) | (0.245) | (0.343) | (0.554) | |
| x Urban population | 0.937* | |||||||||||
| (0.472) | ||||||||||||
| x Female population | 0.974 | |||||||||||
| (0.747) | ||||||||||||
| x Internal migration | –0.318 | |||||||||||
| (0.384) | ||||||||||||
| x Unemployment rate | –2.710** | |||||||||||
| (1.335) | ||||||||||||
| x Electricity access | 2.407* | |||||||||||
| (1.346) | ||||||||||||
| x No schooling | –1.152* | |||||||||||
| (0.652) | ||||||||||||
| x Piped water access | 1.850** | |||||||||||
| (0.846) | ||||||||||||
| x Ethnic diversity | –0.548 | |||||||||||
| (0.570) | ||||||||||||
| x Black population | –3.541*** | |||||||||||
| (0.482) | ||||||||||||
| x Colored population | 3.499*** | |||||||||||
| (0.345) | ||||||||||||
| x White population | 0.719** | |||||||||||
| (0.344) | ||||||||||||
| x Asian population | –0.145 | |||||||||||
| (0.260) | ||||||||||||
| Observations | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.532 | 0.521 | 0.499 | 0.560 | 0.556 | 0.542 | 0.532 | 0.499 | 0.800 | 0.808 | 0.523 | 0.493 |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD |
Robustness to the exclusion of provinces
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sample | Excludes Western Cape | Excludes Gauteng | Excludes KwaZulu-Natal | |||
| Panel A: National elections | ||||||
| ANC | ANC | ANC | ||||
| Immigration | –1.733*** (0.366) | –2.596*** (0.933) | –2.958*** (0.778) | –7.263*** (2.555) | –1.057*** (0.229) | –1.605*** (0.475) |
| Observations | 187 | 187 | 200 | 200 | 160 | 160 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.346 | 0.223 | 0.809 | |||
| DA | DA | DA | ||||
| Immigration | 0.597*** (0.118) | 1.087*** (0.336) | 2.118 (1.313) | 6.131*** (1.519) | 0.877** (0.385) | 1.454* (0.825) |
| Observations | 187 | 187 | 200 | 200 | 160 | 160 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.606 | 0.469 | 0.550 | |||
| Panel B: Provincial elections | ||||||
| ANC | ANC | ANC | ||||
| Immigration | –1.804*** (0.377) | –2.700*** (0.945) | –2.968*** (0.784) | –7.299*** (2.565) | –1.125*** (0.242) | –1.718*** (0.495) |
| Observations | 187 | 187 | 200 | 200 | 160 | 160 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.362 | 0.224 | 0.800 | |||
| DA | DA | DA | ||||
| Immigration | 0.734*** (0.150) | 1.297*** (0.385) | 2.280 (1.393) | 6.743*** (1.521) | 1.056** (0.416) | 1.702* (0.881) |
| Observations | 187 | 187 | 200 | 200 | 160 | 160 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.649 | 0.487 | 0.570 | |||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 10.93 | 5.846 | 18.32 | |||
Votes as a share of registered voters
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||
| Immigration | −1.321*** (0.380) | −1.521** (0.689) | 0.868** (0.372) | 1.504** (0.719) |
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.294 | . | 0.488 | . |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 14.18 | 14.18 | ||
IV based on the 1996 census
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANC vote share | DA vote share | |||
| Panel A: National elections | ||||
| Immigration | −2.002*** (0.442) | −2.942*** (1.040) | 1.123** (0.466) | 1.256** (0.582) |
| Observations | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.330 | . | 0.494 | . |
| Panel B: Provincial elections | ||||
| Immigration | −2.067*** (0.446) | −2.965*** (1.018) | 1.288** (0.497) | 1.440** (0.622) |
| Observations | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.346 | . | 0.526 | . |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | . | 15.17 | . | 15.17 |
District-level regressions
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||||
| Immigration | –2.058*** (0.401) | –2.061*** (0.504) | –2.422*** (0.745) | –3.254*** (1.248) | 1.887*** (0.673) | 2.298*** (0.830) | 1.475** (0.656) | 2.411** (1.092) |
| Urban population | –0.842** (0.360) | –0.925*** (0.336) | –0.452 (0.326) | –0.358 (0.302) | ||||
| Female population | –3.220 (3.290) | –2.619 (2.938) | –1.163 (2.486) | –1.839 (2.330) | ||||
| Unemployment rate | 0.528 (0.563) | 0.226 (0.615) | 0.859 (0.566) | 1.199** (0.568) | ||||
| Internal migration | 0.735 (0.961) | 0.862 (0.869) | 0.105 (0.572) | –0.0379 (0.627) | ||||
| Ethnic diversity | 0.0183 (0.451) | 0.0709 (0.416) | 1.319*** (0.393) | 1.260*** (0.334) | ||||
| Electricity access | 0.183 (0.307) | 0.0255 (0.329) | –0.303 (0.185) | –0.125 (0.213) | ||||
| No schooling | –0.259 (0.525) | –0.428 (0.522) | –0.507** (0.222) | –0.317 (0.243) | ||||
| Observations | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.299 | 0.297 | 0.365 | 0.583 | ||||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 20.08 | 12.76 | 20.08 | 12.76 | ||||
Main results—national elections
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||||
| Immigration | –1.903*** (0.282) | –2.097*** (0.504) | –1.982*** (0.447) | –2.898*** (0.965) | 1.698*** (0.545) | 2.260*** (0.815) | 1.126** (0.471) | 1.863** (0.898) |
| Urban population | –0.538*** (0.168) | –0.593*** (0.161) | –0.247 (0.196) | –0.203 (0.175) | ||||
| Female population | –2.479** (1.212) | –2.091* (1.092) | 0.412 (0.889) | 0.0987 (0.936) | ||||
| Unemployment rate | 0.483* (0.287) | 0.276 (0.305) | 0.361 (0.372) | 0.528 (0.400) | ||||
| Internal migration | 0.148 (0.345) | 0.265 (0.383) | 0.204 (0.246) | 0.109 (0.313) | ||||
| Ethnic diversity (HHI) | 0.0116 (0.217) | 0.0646 (0.218) | 0.768** (0.330) | 0.725** (0.320) | ||||
| Electricity access | 0.161 (0.116) | 0.0311 (0.125) | –0.226*** (0.0583) | –0.121 (0.0840) | ||||
| No schooling | –0.197 (0.305) | –0.367 (0.320) | –0.422*** (0.156) | –0.285* (0.161) | ||||
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.273 | 0.338 | 0.334 | 0.493 | ||||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 20.40 | 14.18 | 20.40 | 14.18 | ||||
Belief and opinion variable definitions
| Variable name | Detailed question | Binary coding |
|---|---|---|
| Prohibit foreigners | How about people from other countries coming to South Afri- ca? Which one of the following do you think the government should do? 1 = Prohibit people entering from other countries, 2 = Place strict restrictions on the number of foreigners who can enter, 3 = Let people in as long as there are jobs available, 4 = Let anyone in who wants to enter, 9 = Do not know | Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 1, and zero otherwise |
| Distrust foreigners | How much do you trust each of the following types of people: what about foreigners living here in South Africa? Trust foreigners living here in SAF. 0 = Not at all, 1 = Just a little, 2 = I trust them somewhat, 3 = I trust them a lot, 9 = Do not know | Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 0 or option 1, and zero otherwise |
| Govt mismanages immigration | How well or badly would you say the former Mbeki govern- ment was handling the following matters: Managing immigration. 1 = Very badly, 2 = Fairly badly, 3 = Fairly well, 4 = Very well, 9 = Do not know/Have not heard enough | Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is option 1 or option 2, and zero otherwise |
| Would vote ANC | If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for? | Variable equal to 1 if respondent answer is ANC, and zero otherwise |
East-West split
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share | ||||||
| East | West | East | West | |||||
| Immigration | –1.950*** (0.427) | –3.122*** (1.150) | –1.505*** (0.379) | –4.734*** (1.193) | 0.720*** (0.154) | 1.210*** (0.395) | 1.569 (1.607) | 6.710*** (1.918) |
| Observations | 123 | 123 | 87 | 87 | 123 | 123 | 87 | 87 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.418 | 0.682 | 0.787 | 0.630 | ||||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | 8.871 | 11.16 | 8.871 | 11.16 | ||||
1991 economic conditions
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANC vote share | DA vote share | |||
| Panel A: National elections | ||||
| Immigration | −2.147*** (0.468) | −2.819*** (0.932) | 1.226** (0.466) | 2.129** (0.949) |
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.387 | . | 0.503 | . |
| Panel B: Provincial elections | ||||
| Immigration | −2.198*** (0.474) | −2.897*** (0.937) | 1.386*** (0.498) | 2.407** (1.026) |
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.395 | . | 0.534 | . |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| KP F-statistic | . | 21.06 | . | 21.06 |
First stage results
| (1) | (2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Immigration | |
| IV predicted immigration (1996 census) | 0.777*** (0.192) | 0.720*** (0.185) |
| Urban population | −0.0265 (0.0435) | |
| Female population | −0.113 (0.211) | |
| Unemployment rate | −0.0590 (0.0650) | |
| Internal migration | 0.170 (0.135) | |
| Ethnic diversity (HHI) | 0.0573 (0.0353) | |
| Electricity access | −0.100*** (0.0260) | |
| No schooling | −0.0497 (0.0441) | |
| Observations | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.554 | 0.630 |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD |
| F-statistic IV | 16.54 | 16.16 |
Individual opinion survey—part 1
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Prohibit foreigners | Distrust foreigners | Govt mismanages immigration | Would vote ANC |
| Foreign born (% pop) | 0.0105* (0.00604) | 0.00421 (0.00541) | 0.0143** (0.00608) | -0.00902*** (0.00309) |
| Age | -0.00637** (0.00319) | –0.00373 (0.00284) | 0.00562 (0.00481) | 0.00754** (0.00329) |
| Age squared | 0.0000514 (0.0000388) | 0.0000469 (0.0000350) | –0.0000522 (0.0000530) | –0.000105*** (0.0000367) |
| Female | –0.0232 (0.0200) | –0.0178 (0.0134) | –0.0288 (0.0214) | –0.00442 (0.0154) |
| Language—English | –0.103* (0.0597) | 0.0225 (0.0270) | –0.0626 (0.0415) | –0.131*** (0.0401) |
| Language—Afrikaan | –0.0417 (0.0946) | 0.0269 (0.0336) | 0.0483 (0.0542) | –0.269*** (0.0445) |
| Language—Xhosa | –0.0848 (0.0707) | 0.0690* (0.0352) | –0.0957** (0.0378) | –0.183*** (0.0408) |
| Education—less than primary | 0.102*** (0.0358) | –0.0139 (0.0270) | –0.0646 (0.0416) | 0.0471 (0.0367) |
| Education—secondary completed | 0.0378 (0.0340) | 0.000322 (0.0252) | –0.0387 (0.0375) | –0.00819 (0.0272) |
| Education—tertiary | –0.0571 (0.0432) | –0.00792 (0.0332) | 0.0174 (0.0397) | 0.0172 (0.0342) |
| Employed | –0.00424 (0.0303) | –0.0246 (0.0209) | –0.0124 (0.0307) | 0.00891 (0.0237) |
| Piped water in house | 0.0609* (0.0353) | –0.0372 (0.0300) | 0.0758* (0.0452) | –0.0971*** (0.0279) |
| Informal housing (%) | 0.000937** (0.000370) | 0.000198 (0.000511) | 0.000328 (0.000659) | 0.00152*** (0.000517) |
| Urban | –0.0135 (0.0385) | 0.0139 (0.0285) | 0.00295 (0.0436) | –0.0172 (0.0364) |
| Observations | 2,279 | 2,271 | 2,164 | 2,331 |
Local election results
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable: ANC | vote share | |||
| Immigration | −0.684** (0.279) | −0.676 (0.542) | −0.708** (0.281) | −1.102** (0.536) |
| Urban population | −0.371** (0.167) | −0.370** (0.154) | −0.350** (0.162) | −0.376** (0.154) |
| Female population | −1.074 (0.962) | −1.077 (0.905) | −0.842 (0.949) | −0.683 (0.934) |
| Unemployment rate | 0.00826 (0.266) | 0.0101 (0.284) | −0.0547 (0.266) | −0.140 (0.265) |
| Internal migration | 0.145 (0.410) | 0.144 (0.378) | 0.107 (0.402) | 0.160 (0.400) |
| Ethnic diversity (HHI) | 0.140 (0.232) | 0.140 (0.220) | 0.208 (0.232) | 0.230 (0.233) |
| Electricity access | 0.0751 (0.0827) | 0.0763 (0.107) | 0.0925 (0.0834) | 0.0369 (0.101) |
| No schooling | −0.445* (0.251) | −0.443 (0.270) | −0.401 (0.256) | −0.475* (0.269) |
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.258 | . | 0.288 | . |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS |
| IV | 1991 | census | 1996 | census |
| KP F-statistic | . | 14.18 | . | 15.17 |
Heterogeneity analysis
| (1) | (2) | |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | ANC vote share | DA vote share |
| Immigration | −4.980*** (1.646) | 1.736** (0.662) |
| x Urban population | −0.670 (0.696) | −0.283 (0.455) |
| x Female population | −0.549 (0.353) | −0.0525 (0.222) |
| x Internal migration | 0.0436 (0.497) | −0.890*** (0.305) |
| x Unemployment rate | −0.742 (1.107) | 0.194 (0.557) |
| x Electricity access | −2.104** (1.036) | −0.417 (0.627) |
| x No schooling | 0.559 (0.888) | −1.142 (0.803) |
| x Piped water access | 1.578 (1.488) | −0.608 (0.845) |
| x Ethnic diversity | 2.140** (0.827) | 0.336 (0.475) |
| x Black population | 0.226 (0.665) | −3.876*** (0.573) |
| x White population | −0.670* (0.345) | −0.249 (0.259) |
| x Asian population | 1.072*** (0.221) | −0.351** (0.172) |
| Observations | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.428 | 0.838 |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD |
Turnout
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable: Turnout | ||||||||
| FD | FD-2SLS | FD | FD-2SLS | |||||
| Immigration | –0.187 (0.176) | 0.175 (0.153) | –0.353 (0.360) | 0.856** (0.392) | –0.193 (0.179) | 0.173 (0.153) | –0.976 (0.729) | –0.125 (0.371) |
| Urban population | –0.269* (0.135) | –0.228* (0.137) | –0.259* (0.134) | –0.278** (0.127) | ||||
| Female population | –1.047* (0.623) | –1.336** (0.651) | –1.026* (0.608) | –0.906 (0.580) | ||||
| Unemployment rate | 0.186 (0.133) | 0.340*** (0.124) | 0.182 (0.126) | 0.117 (0.153) | ||||
| Internal migration | 0.138 (0.208) | 0.0503 (0.243) | 0.148 (0.205) | 0.188 (0.197) | ||||
| Ethnic diversity | 0.102 (0.108) | 0.0626 (0.106) | 0.0900 (0.103) | 0.107 (0.110) | ||||
| Electricity access | –0.161** (0.0615) | –0.0636 (0.0662) | –0.180*** (0.0596) | –0.222*** (0.0823) | ||||
| No schooling | 0.193 (0.124) | 0.319*** (0.121) | 0.182 (0.125) | 0.125 (0.128) | ||||
| Observations | 210 | 210 | 210 | 210 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.005 | 0.444 | 0.005 | 0.481 | ||||
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| IV | 1991 census | 1996 census | ||||||
| KP F-statistic | 20.40 | 14.18 | 16.34 | 15.17 | ||||
Channels—ANC
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable: ANC vote share | ||||||||||||
| Immigration | –2.314*** | –2.612*** | –2.867** | –1.984*** | –1.446** | –1.843** | –2.521*** | –4.235*** | –1.828*** | –2.310*** | –1.654*** | –2.521*** |
| (0.552) | (0.770) | (1.167) | (0.738) | (0.570) | (0.813) | (0.785) | (1.333) | (0.398) | (0.410) | (0.522) | (0.383) | |
| x Urban population | 0.254 | |||||||||||
| (0.378) | ||||||||||||
| x Female population | –0.792 | |||||||||||
| (0.587) | ||||||||||||
| x Internal migration | 0.408 | |||||||||||
| (0.468) | ||||||||||||
| x Unemployment rate | 0.0272 | |||||||||||
| (0.925) | ||||||||||||
| x Electricity access | –0.708 | |||||||||||
| (0.905) | ||||||||||||
| x No schooling | 0.0948 | |||||||||||
| (0.496) | ||||||||||||
| x Piped water access | 0.553 | |||||||||||
| (0.780) | ||||||||||||
| x Ethnic diversity | 1.192* | |||||||||||
| (0.636) | ||||||||||||
| x Black population | 1.233*** | |||||||||||
| (0.409) | ||||||||||||
| x Colored population | –1.477*** | |||||||||||
| (0.334) | ||||||||||||
| x White population | –0.322 | |||||||||||
| (0.245) | ||||||||||||
| x Asian population | 0.868*** | |||||||||||
| (0.197) | ||||||||||||
| Observations | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 | 215 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.328 | 0.339 | 0.334 | 0.326 | 0.330 | 0.327 | 0.329 | 0.348 | 0.351 | 0.363 | 0.330 | 0.370 |
| Weighted | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Covariates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Estimator | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD | FD |
Individual opinion survey—part 2
| (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Govt mismanages immigration | Would vote ANC | Govt mismanages immigration | Would vote ANC |
| Prohibit foreigners | 0.0814*** (0.0265) | –0.0400 (0.0455) | ||
| Distrust foreigners | 0.0762 (0.0476) | –0.0561 (0.0393) | ||
| Age | 0.00687 (0.00484) | 0.00753** (0.00330) | 0.00628 (0.00481) | 0.00681** (0.00324) |
| Age squared | –0.0000653 (0.0000530) – | 0.000105*** (0.0000374) | –0.0000618 (0.0000534) | –0.0000968*** (0.0000369) |
| Female | –0.0287 (0.0223) | –0.00880 (0.0154) | –0.0245 (0.0213) | –0.00703 (0.0160) |
| Language—English | –0.0408 (0.0409) | –0.155*** (0.0413) | –0.0588 (0.0393) | –0.131*** (0.0388) |
| Language—Afrikaan | 0.0636 (0.0534) | –0.281*** (0.0450) | 0.0513 (0.0534) | –0.268*** (0.0458) |
| Language—Xhosa | –0.109*** (0.0408) | –0.185*** (0.0431) | –0.114*** (0.0397) | –0.168*** (0.0416) |
| Education—less than primary | –0.0551 (0.0414) | 0.0450 (0.0378) | –0.0517 (0.0403) | 0.0400 (0.0387) |
| Education—secondary completed | –0.0459 (0.0362) | –0.0133 (0.0271) | –0.0337 (0.0365) | –0.0138 (0.0253) |
| Education—tertiary | 0.0279 (0.0398) | 0.00820 (0.0336) | 0.0198 (0.0388) | 0.0207 (0.0354) |
| Employed | –0.00688 (0.0319) | 0.00780 (0.0266) | –0.00466 (0.0331) | –0.00238 (0.0261) |
| Piped water in house | 0.0762 (0.0477) | –0.0973*** (0.0268) | 0.0847* (0.0481) | –0.104*** (0.0278) |
| Informal housing (%) | 0.000393 (0.000702) | 0.00148*** (0.000521) | 0.000358 (0.000700) | 0.00162*** (0.000536) |
| Urban | 0.0350 (0.0510) | –0.0452 (0.0361) | 0.0355 (0.0519) | –0.0433 (0.0352) |
| Observations | 2,124 | 2,279 | 2,114 | 2,271 |
Summary statistics
| N | Mean | SD | Min | Max | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prohibit foreigners | 2,347 | 0.215 | 0.411 | 0 | 1 |
| Prohibit or place strict restrictions on foreigners | 2,347 | 0.657 | 0.475 | 0 | 1 |
| Distrust foreigners | 2,339 | 0.846 | 0.361 | 0 | 1 |
| Govt mismanages immigration | 2,230 | 0.689 | 0.463 | 0 | 1 |
| Would vote ANC | 2,400 | 0.705 | 0.456 | 0 | 1 |
| Foreign born (% population) | 2,400 | 3.893 | 3.327 | 0.0127 | 25.41 |
| Age | 2,375 | 37.79 | 14.21 | 18 | 97 |
| Age squared | 2,375 | 1,630 | 1,244 | 324 | 9,409 |
| Female | 2,400 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 |
| Language—English | 2,400 | 0.456 | 0.498 | 0 | 1 |
| Language—Afrikaan | 2,400 | 0.232 | 0.422 | 0 | 1 |
| Language—Xhosa | 2,400 | 0.146 | 0.353 | 0 | 1 |
| Language—Zulu | 2,400 | 0.166 | 0.372 | 0 | 1 |
| Education—less than primary | 2,400 | 0.136 | 0.343 | 0 | 1 |
| Education—secondary completed | 2,400 | 0.285 | 0.452 | 0 | 1 |
| Education—tertiary | 2,400 | 0.174 | 0.379 | 0 | 1 |
| Employed | 2,386 | 0.497 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 |
| Piped water in house | 2,367 | 0.554 | 0.497 | 0 | 1 |
| Informal housing in the area (%) | 2,400 | 14.16 | 23.30 | 0 | 100 |
| Urban area | 2,400 | 0.657 | 0.475 | 0 | 1 |