Effect of Actual and Perceived Violence on Internal Migration: Evidence from Mexico’s Drug War

	Immigration			Emigration			Net migration variation

	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1–P2	P2–P3	P1–P3
Mean	59,994	82,708	81,905	59,994	82,708	81,905	0.15	0.02	0.55
Standard deviation	59,465	81,641	78,422	75,865	105,981	89,873	1.09	1.46	1.28
Min	16,628	23,417	20,077	8,562	14,236	16,064	–3.36	–5.35	–1.58
Max	323,378	464,284	403,100	382,622	588,895	444,875	2.44	2.96	3.90

[i] Notes: P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015.

Classification of Mexican states by (internal) net migration condition and period.
*Notes*: Positive net migration refers to a greater inflow of migrants (compared with the outflow) into a state. The number expresses the relative change in net migration (compared with the period 2000–2005). Data of this figure are provided in Appendix B.

Table 2

Descriptive statistics on homicide data

	Average homicides			AHR			AHR variation

	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1–P2	P2–P3	P1–P3
Mean	313	493	731	0.150	0.241	0.309	0.472	0.506	1.158
Standard deviation	371.6	578.9	720.3	0.083	0.256	0.245	0.808	0.604	1.395
Min	23	38	50	0.037	0.034	0.036	−0.311	−0.374	−0.099
Max	1,926	2,774	2,889	0.348	1.311	1.094	3.519	1.955	6.920

[i] Notes: P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015. AHR, Average homicide rate.

Homicide rate (per 1,000 people), by state and period.

Homicides rate (per 1,000 people) in Mexican states (yearly average), by period.
*Note*: Numbers in map refer to relative change in homicide rate (compared with the period 2000–2005). Data of this figure are provided in Appendix C.

Net migration (in thousands) and homicide rates in Mexican states by period.
*Note*: C stands for slope coefficient and S.E. for standard error of fitting curve.

Immigration and homicide rates (per 1,000 people) in Mexican states, by period.
*Note*: C stands for slope coefficient and S.E. for standard error of fitting curve.

Table 3

Gravity equation estimates (OLS, PPML, and GME)

	OLS 2FE	PPML 2FE	GME 2FE	GME 3FE
Log homicide rate (destination)	–0.125	–0.019	–0.122	–0.117
	(2.45)*	(2.52)*	(4.68)**	(6.13)**
Log homicide rate (origin)	0.065	0.012	0.066	0.092
	(2.70)*	(3.35)**	(2.56)*	(4.81)**

Log distance	–0.15	–0.014	–0.152	–0.913
	(4.90)**	(2.44)*	(8.40)**	(19.53)**
Log GDP (destination)	0.37	0.033	0.367	0.465
	(1.63)	(0.84)	(3.06)**	(5.28)**
Log GDP (origin)	0.342	0.067	0.357	0.266
	(1.75)	(2.02)*	(2.99)**	(3.02)**
Log unemployment (destination)	–0.2	–0.031	–0.212	–0.35
	(1.59)	(1.77)	(3.94)**	(8.80)**
Log unemployment (origin)	0.01	–0.001	0.012	0.106
	(0.15)	(0.16)	(0.23)	(2.67)**
Log education (destination)	0.07	0.084	0.14	2.256
	(0.06)	(0.46)	(0.25)	(5.33)**
Log education (origin)	1.478	0.18	1.552	–0.023
	(2.83)**	(2.36)*	(2.75)**	(0.06)
Log FDI (destination)	–0.06	–0.009	–0.057	–0.028
	(0.87)	(0.85)	(2.13)*	(1.42)
Log FDI (origin)	0.147	0.027	0.144	0.069
	(4.09)**	(4.89)**	(5.36)**	(3.47)**
Birthrate difference (destination–origin)	–0.258	–0.032	–0.254	0.093
	(0.85)	(0.7)	(1.6)	(0.8)
Log population (destination)	–0.256	–0.005	–0.184	0.62
	(0.51)	(0.07)	(0.91)	(4.12)**
Log population (origin)	–0.332	–0.017	–0.315	0.137
	(1.69)	(0.56)	(1.56)	(0.91)
Wage difference (destination–origin)	0.002	0.00	0.002	0.002
	(1.01)	(0.78)	(2.17)*	(4.09)**
Log immigrant proportion	0.884	0.132	0.883	0.232
	(48.01)**	(47.85)**	(88.99)**	(9.71)**
Border with USA	–0.939	–0.12	1.96	6.183
	(1.1)	(0.97)	(6.15)**	(11.23)**
Period 2 dummy	0.573	0.079	0.548	0.149
	(5.21)**	(4.84)**	(6.06)**	(2.18)*
Period 3 dummy	0.268	0.022	0.218	–0.219
	(1.32)	(0.75)	(1.41)	(1.89)
Constant	9.726	1.231	5.39	–12
	(1.0)	(0.88)	(1.19)	(3.41)**

Origin FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Destination FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Pair-specific FE	No	No	No	Yes

Model entropy			3,346.8	4,371.1
Pseudo-R²			0.0001	0.0004
R²	0.95	0.94
N	2976	2976	2976	2976

[i] Notes: **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05. Standard errors in parenthesis. Total sample (2000–2015).

OLS, ordinary least squares; PPML, Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood; GME, generalized maximum entropy; 2FE, two-way fixed effects; 3FE, three-way fixed effects.

Table 4

Estimation of gravity model (GME 3FE) per period

	GME P1	GME P2	GME P3
Log homicide rate (destination)	–0.169	–0.125	–0.292
	(7.36)**	(12.45)**	(8.90)**
Log homicide rate (origin)	0.118	0.054	–0.395
	(5.87)**	(3.44)**	(15.93)**

Other control covariates	Yes	Yes	Yes
Origin FE	Yes	Yes	Yes
Destination FE	Yes	Yes	Yes
Pair-specific FE	Yes	Yes	Yes

Model entropy	2,179.6	2,179.6	2,179.6
Pseudo-R²	0.00	0.00	0.00
N	992	992	992

[i] Notes: **p < 0.01. Standard errors in parenthesis. Other control covariates refer to variables specified in equation (1).

P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015.

GME, generalized maximum entropy; 3FE, three-way fixed effects.

Table 5

Decomposition of mean predictions differences between periods 1 and 2, and periods 1 and 3

	Decomposition P1–P2		Decomposition P1–P3
	Explained	Unexplained	Explained	Unexplained
Total	–0.265	0.661	0.121	0.244
	(0.069)**	(0.02)**	(0.073)	(0.036)**

Log distance	0	0.253	0	–1.09
	(0.000)	(0.045)**	(0.000)	(0.053)**
Log GDP (destination)	0.017	–6.36	0.037	–20.7
	(0.006)**	(0.362)**	(0.007)**	(0.818)**
Log GDP (origin)	–0.001	4.1	–0.003	6.36
	(0.002)	(0.377)**	(0.004)	(0.633)**
Log unemployment (destination)	0.008	–0.298	0.018	–2.29
	(0.009)	(0.074)**	(0.022)	(0.106)**
Log unemployment (origin)	0.029	–0.048	0.066	–2.14
	(0.005)**	(0.041)	(0.011)**	(0.068)**
Log FDI (destination)	0.006	0.338	0.017	2.11
	(0.005)	(0.195)	(0.015)	(0.238)**
Log FDI (origin)	–0.001	0.545	–0.005	6.98
	(0.004)	(0.134)**	(0.011)	(0.29)**
Log homicide rate (destination)	–0.047	–0.383	–0.104	1.02
	(0.008)**	(0.218)	(0.015)**	(0.334)**
Log homicide rate (origin)	0.033	0.560	0.073	4.28
	(0.006)**	(0.221)*	(0.013)**	(0.267)**
Log population (destination)	0.052	5.82	0.126	14.79
	(0.018)**	(0.492)**	(0.019)**	(0.72)**
Log population (origin)	0.001	–1.89	0.003	–10.76
	(0.002)	(0.437)**	(0.004)	(0.653)**
Log immigrant proportion	–0.317	–0.282	–0.089	0.13
	(0.059)**	(0.027)**	(0.058)	(0.033)**
Border with USA	0	–0.082	0	–0.022
	(0.003)	(0.011)**	(0.003)	(0.017)

[i] Notes: **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05. Origin, destination, and path-specific fixed effects coefficients are omitted to save space. Birthrate difference and wage difference are omitted since all their coefficients were insignificant.

P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015. Linear decompositions take P1’s coefficients as reference. Mean predictions are 6.326 (2000–2005), 6.723 (2005–2010), and 6.693 (2010–2015).

GDP, gross domestic product; FDI, foreign direct investment.

Code	Name	Code	Name
1	Aguascalientes	17	Morelos
2	Baja California	18	Nayarit
3	Baja California Sur	19	Nuevo Leno
4	Campeche	20	Oaxaca
5	Coahuila de Zaragoza	21	Puebla
6	Colima	22	Queretaro
7	Chiapas	23	Quintana Roo
8	Chihuahua	24	San Luis Potosi
9	Mexico city	25	Sinaloa
10	Durnago	26	Sonora
11	Guanajuato	27	Tabasco
12	Guerrero	28	Tamaulipas
13	Hidalgo	29	Tlaxcala
14	Jalisco	30	Veracruz
15	Mexico state	31	Yucatan
16	Michoacan	32	Zacatecas

	Immigration			Emigration			Net migration variation
State	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1–P2	P2–P3	P1–P3
Aguascalientes	28,488	32,887	34,130	11,915	19,157	17,512	-0.17	0.21	0.00
Baja California	137,390	123,726	114,880	44,117	96,512	74,160	-0.71	0.50	-0.56
Baja California Sur	33,635	60,218	46,584	8,562	14,236	18,734	0.83	-0.39	0.11
Campeche	21,343	27,472	36,884	16,869	23,286	20,311	-0.06	2.96	2.70
Coahuila de Zaragoza	36,116	48,418	50,051	35,355	48,613	49,202	-1.26	-5.35	0.12

Colima	21,303	32,466	32,180	11,061	14,800	16,064	0.72	-0.09	0.57
Chiapas	19,144	40,437	42,889	75,176	89,504	95,990	-0.12	0.08	-0.05
Chihuahua	54,685	46,367	40,800	33,975	64,454	51,545	-1.87	-0.41	-1.52
Mexico city	159,869	204,888	283,102	382,622	588,895	444,875	0.72	-0.58	-0.27
Durango	19,683	29,971	25,835	28,047	37,737	38,791	-0.07	0.67	0.55

Guanajuato	49,230	73,008	74,286	42,512	60,290	57,109	0.89	0.35	1.56
Guerrero	24,621	41,024	34,440	60,176	85,865	109,502	0.26	0.67	1.11
Hidalgo	56,421	93,919	94,424	38,274	56,145	60,646	1.08	-0.11	0.86
Jalisco	90,912	131,557	130,012	82,389	120,016	120,914	0.35	-0.21	0.07
Mexico state	323,378	464,284	403,100	234,864	261,553	326,643	1.29	-0.62	-0.14

Michoacan	45,387	62,782	52,091	55,144	81,145	92,652	0.88	1.21	3.16
Morelos	44,674	63,117	60,909	24,552	36,646	42,354	0.32	-0.30	-0.08
Nayarit	28,112	48,836	39,405	20,900	25,071	26,116	2.30	-0.44	0.84
Nuevo Leon	82,853	114,089	141,654	40,069	61,718	61,280	0.22	0.53	0.88
Oaxaca	40,926	66,126	57,408	66,274	85,671	91,018	-0.23	0.72	0.33

Puebla	77,367	104,349	113,371	74,636	110,804	113,342	-3.36	-1.00	-0.99
Queretaro	55,739	77,462	105,431	20,441	32,685	31,379	0.27	0.65	1.10
Quintana Roo	84,725	122,690	116,616	22,124	41,811	46,968	0.29	-0.14	0.11
San Luis Potosi	31,484	45,561	39,593	38,094	51,038	58,692	-0.17	2.49	1.89
Sinaloa	39,730	55,784	65,660	74,725	81,582	80,191	-0.26	-0.44	-0.58

Sonora	40,244	62,686	56,812	35,376	45,963	41,928	2.44	-0.11	2.06
Tabasco	18,351	31,396	35,583	47,526	56,090	53,044	-0.15	-0.29	-0.40
Tamaulipas	94,726	87,741	58,520	42,710	74,215	88,865	-0.74	-3.24	-1.58
Tlaxcala	21,496	29,924	29,019	14,120	20,982	21,861	0.21	-0.20	-0.03
Veracruz	93,576	159,584	134,177	191,791	198,937	199,758	-0.60	0.67	-0.33
Yucatan	27,584	40,470	51,044	24,169	32,392	34,294	1.37	1.07	3.90
Zacatecas	16,628	23,417	20,077	21,255	28,843	35,227	0.17	1.79	2.27

[i] Notes: P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015.

	Average homicides			AHR			AHR variation
State	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1–P2	P2–P3	P1–P3
Aguascalientes	23	54	59	0.039	0.078	0.073	1.034	–0.069	0.894
Baja California	441	984	749	0.289	0.540	0.338	0.867	–0.374	0.169
Baja California Sur	29	38	82	0.100	0.110	0.183	0.101	0.658	0.825
Campeche	50	49	70	0.113	0.095	0.120	–0.158	0.260	0.061
Coahuila de Zaragoza	135	221	690	0.088	0.131	0.361	0.485	1.758	3.094

Colima	50	67	206	0.146	0.173	0.442	0.183	1.555	2.024
Chiapas	341	323	417	0.149	0.123	0.135	–0.179	0.097	–0.099
Chihuahua	572	2,774	2,540	0.290	1.311	1.094	3.519	–0.165	2.772
Mexico city	941	931	1,092	0.151	0.145	0.163	–0.039	0.121	0.077
Durango	175	586	591	0.192	0.591	0.533	2.082	–0.098	1.779

Guanajuato	213	332	756	0.073	0.104	0.202	0.420	0.936	1.748
Guerrero	640	1,194	2,293	0.348	0.613	1.022	0.763	0.666	1.937
Hidalgo	82	91	197	0.057	0.058	0.106	0.012	0.828	0.850
Jalisco	464	648	1,368	0.113	0.144	0.267	0.282	0.846	1.367
Mexico state	1,926	1,710	2,889	0.232	0.185	0.272	–0.204	0.468	0.169

Michoacan	592	769	881	0.238	0.295	0.294	0.241	–0.003	0.236
Morelos	181	247	529	0.182	0.230	0.419	0.263	0.821	1.300
Nayarit	124	220	283	0.206	0.343	0.372	0.664	0.082	0.800
Nuevo Leon	120	392	1,193	0.045	0.133	0.358	1.954	1.682	6.920
Oaxaca	625	606	740	0.295	0.267	0.285	–0.094	0.067	–0.034

Puebla	370	343	532	0.119	0.099	0.136	–0.171	0.376	0.141
Queretaro	87	70	118	0.098	0.067	0.093	–0.311	0.375	–0.052
Quintana Roo	99	124	150	0.177	0.182	0.163	0.028	–0.109	–0.084
San Luis Potosi	180	215	331	0.125	0.136	0.186	0.089	0.373	0.496
Sinaloa	442	1,097	1,359	0.266	0.628	0.690	1.365	0.099	1.599

Sonora	237	464	595	0.160	0.287	0.318	0.795	0.107	0.988
Tabasco	103	162	254	0.085	0.122	0.165	0.434	0.351	0.937
Tamaulipas	238	419	1,026	0.128	0.203	0.453	0.589	1.227	2.539
Tlaxcala	50	54	85	0.081	0.077	0.105	–0.048	0.372	0.305
Veracruz	373	447	933	0.083	0.092	0.172	0.111	0.875	1.083
Yucatan	41	42	50	0.037	0.034	0.036	–0.082	0.053	–0.033
Zacatecas	88	103	344	0.104	0.114	0.337	0.100	1.955	2.252

[i] Notes: P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015. AHR, Average homicide rate.

	2000–2005			2005–2010			2010–2015
	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max
Homicide rate average (per 1,000 people)	0.15	0.036	0.348	0.24	0.033	1.311	0.3	0.035	1.1
Net migration	1,935	10	214,547	2,668	19	301,099	2,642	3	242,120
Real GDP (2013 million pesos)	405,807	67,928	2,205,990	441,185	77,491	2,408,621	491,133	90,143	2,681,442
Unemployment rate	3.26	1.18	5.80	3.88	1.40	6.05	4.86	2.19	6.62
Education (years of schooling)	7.4	5.4	9.6	8.1	6.1	10.2	8.6	6.7	10.5

FDI (millions US dollars)	737.1	76.6	6,199.8	803.2	82.7	5,921.7	978.7	121.8	4,871.9
Birthrate (average child born to women/total women)	2.7	2.0	3.1	2.5	2.0	3.0	2.4	1.9	2.8
Population (in thousands, 15 years and older)	1,963.8	284.9	8,286.9	2,150	341.5	9,241.7	2,450.7	449.2	10,635.4
Wage (daily, pesos)	146.9	115.3	230.0	202.6	164.9	299.6	250.6	202.5	359.1
Immigrant proportion	2,813	10	339,056	1,935	10	214,547	2,668	19	301,099

[i] GDP, gross domestic product; FDI, foreign direct investment.

	ldist	lgdp	lunem	leduc	lfdi	lthomav	difbth	lpop	difw	lpormig
ldist	1
lgdp	–0.0789*	1
lunem	–0.1196*	0.2666*	1
leduc	0.0766*	0.2721*	0.7225*	1
lfdi	–0.0392*	0.7098*	0.4876*	0.5316*	1
lthomav	0.1048*	0.0532*	0.0185*	0.1695*	0.1999*	1
difbth	0	–0.3016*	–0.2492*	–0.4554* –	0.3348*	0.1264*	1
lpop	–0.2009*	0.7707*	0.1443*	–0.0225*	0.6419*	0.1533*	–0.0513*	1
difw	0	0.4569*	0.1591*	0.3218*	0.4190*	–0.1086*	–0.6200*	0.2054*	1
lpormig	–0.3414*	–0.0544*	0.0421*	0.1659*	0.0784*	0.0080*	–0.0724* –	0.1523*	–0.0920*	1
fronteraUS	0.2081*	0.2882*	0.2407*	0.3720*	0.4505*	0.2654*	–0.2443*	0.1360*	0.1185*	0.0822*

[i] Notes: * denotes significance level (p < 0.05). Variables are log of distance (ldist), log of real GDP (lgdp), log of unemployment rate (lunem), log of education (leduc), log of FDI (lfdi), log of homicide rate average (lthomav), birthrate difference between origin and destination (difbth), log of population (lpop), wage difference between origin and destination (difw), and log of immigrant proportion (lpormig).

	Decomposition P1–P2		Decomposition P1–P3
	Explained	Unexplained	Explained	Unexplained
Total	–0.275	0.671	0.107	0.259
	(0.069)**	(0.02)**	(0.073)	(0.036)**

Log distance	0	0.263	0	–1.07
	(0.000)	(0.046)**	(0.000)	(0.053)**
Log GDP (destination)	0.018	–6.69	0.040	–17.99
	(0.007)**	(0.366)**	(0.007)**	(0.554)**
Log GDP (origin)	–0.002	4.4	–0.006	3.06
	(0.002)	(0.382)**	(0.004)	(0.44)**
Log unemployment (destination)	0.008	–0.314	0.019	–2.11
	(0.009)	(0.075)**	(0.022)	(0.106)**
Log unemployment (origin)	0.027	–0.024	0.064	–2.36
	(0.005)**	(0.041)	(0.011)**	(0.075)**
Log FDI (destination)	0.004	0.321	0.014	2.01
	(0.005)	(0.198)	(0.015)	(0.233)**
Log FDI (origin)	0.001	0.455	0.005	7.21
	(0.004)	(0.135)**	(0.011)	(0.286)**
Log homicide rate (destination)	–0.048	–0.432	–0.101	0.685
	(0.008)**	(0.211)*	(0.014)**	(0.310)*
Log homicide rate (origin)	0.029	0.471	0.062	4.51
	(0.006)**	(0.221)*	(0.012)**	(0.248)**
Log population (destination)	0.051	6.02	0.125	13.54
	(0.018)**	(0.499)**	(0.019)**	(0.612)**
Log population (origin)	0.001	–1.96	0.002	–9.13
	(0.002)	(0.437)**	(0.004)	(0.601)**
Log immigrant proportion	–0.317	–0.272	–0.089	0.125
	(0.059)**	(0.028)**	(0.058)	(0.033)**
Border with USA	0	–0.078	0	0.201
	(0.003)	(0.011)**	(0.003)	(0.018)**

[i] Notes: **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05. Origin, destination, and path-specific fixed effect coefficients are omitted to save space. Birthrate difference and wage difference are omitted since all their coefficients were insignificant.

P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015. Linear decompositions take P1’s coefficients as reference. Homicide rates for males (15 years and older). GDP, gross domestic product; FDI, foreign direct investment.

	Decomposition P1–P2		Decomposition P1–P3
	Explained	Unexplained	Explained	Unexplained
Total	–0.223	0.619	0.186	0.180
	(0.069)**	(0.02)**	(0.072)*	(0.033)**

Log distance	0	0.296	0	–1.05
	(0.000)	(0.045)**	(0.000)	(0.053)**
Log GDP (destination)	0.017	–5.55	0.038	–18.2
	(0.006)**	(0.362)**	(0.007)**	(0.574)**
Log GDP (origin)	–0.006	3.46	–0.013	3.82
	(0.003)*	(0.446)**	(0.004)**	(0.447)**
Log unemployment (destination)	0.018	–0.348	0.042	–2.24
	(0.009)*	(0.070)**	(0.021)*	(0.104)**
Log unemployment (origin)	0.037	–0.28	0.086	–2.46
	(0.005)**	(0.066)**	(0.011)**	(0.073)**
Log FDI (destination)	0.003	0.733	0.010	2.2
	(0.005)	(0.199)**	(0.015)	(0.245)**
Log FDI (origin)	0.001	0.483	0.004	7.53
	(0.004)	(0.146)**	(0.011)	(0.30)**
Log homicide rate (destination)	–0.040	–0.057	–0.079	0.889
	(0.007)**	(0.191)	(0.012)**	(0.295)**
Log homicide rate (origin)	0.036	1.18	0.072	4.58
	(0.006)**	(0.26)**	(0.011)**	(0.234)**
Log population (destination)	0.052	4.97	0.128	13.24
	(0.018)**	(0.485)**	(0.019)**	(0.593)**
Log population (origin)	0.003	–1.74	0.009	–10.09
	(0.002)	(0.356)**	(0.004)*	(0.623)**
Log immigrant proportion	–0.316	–0.337	–0.088	0.088
	(0.058)**	(0.027)**	(0.057)	(0.033)**
Border with USA	0	–0.094	0	0.221
	(0.002)	(0.012)**	(0.002)	(0.019)**

P1 denotes period 1: 2000–2005. P2 denotes period 2: 2005–2010. P3 denotes period 3: 2010–2015. Linear decompositions take P1’s coefficients as reference. Homicide rates for young males (15–39 years old).

GDP, gross domestic product; FDI, foreign direct investment.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0008 | Journal eISSN: 2520-1786

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Language: English

Published on: May 18, 2020

Published by: Sciendo

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