Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure A1

Figure A2

Number of obs by country and wave
| Country | ESS waves | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Austria | AUT | 2,257 | 2,256 | 2,405 | – | – | – | 1,795 |
| Belgium | BEL | 1,899 | 1,778 | 1,798 | 1,760 | 1,704 | 1,869 | 1,769 |
| Switzerland | CHE | 2,040 | 2,141 | 1,804 | 1,819 | 1,506 | 1,493 | 1,532 |
| Czech Republic | CZE | 1,360 | 3,026 | – | 2,018 | 2,386 | 2,009 | 2,148 |
| Germany | DEU | 2,919 | 2,870 | 2,916 | 2,751 | 3,031 | 2,958 | 3,045 |
| Denmark | DNK | 1,506 | 1,487 | 1,505 | 1,610 | 1,576 | 1,650 | 1,502 |
| Estonia | EST | – | 1,989 | 1,517 | 1,661 | 1,793 | 2,380 | 2,051 |
| Spain | ESP | 1,729 | 1,663 | 1,876 | 2,576 | 1,885 | 1,889 | 1,925 |
| Finland | FIN | 2,000 | 2,022 | 1,896 | 2,195 | 1,878 | 2,197 | 2,087 |
| France | FRA | 1,503 | 1,806 | 1,986 | 2,073 | 1,728 | 1,968 | 1,917 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | 2,052 | 1,897 | 2,394 | 2,352 | 2,422 | 2,286 | 2,264 |
| Greece | GRC | 2,566 | 2,406 | – | 2,072 | 2,715 | – | – |
| Hungary | HUN | 1,685 | 1,498 | 1,518 | 1,544 | 1,561 | 2,014 | 1,698 |
| Ireland | IRL | 2,046 | 2,286 | 1,800 | 1,764 | 2,576 | 2,628 | 2,390 |
| Italy | ITA | 1,207 | – | – | – | – | 960 | – |
| Netherlands | NLD | 2,364 | 1,881 | 1,889 | 1,778 | 1,829 | 1,845 | 1,919 |
| Norway | NOR | 2,036 | 1,760 | 1,750 | 1,549 | 1,548 | 1,624 | 1,436 |
| Poland | POL | 2,110 | 1,716 | 1,721 | 1,619 | 1,751 | 1,898 | 1,615 |
| Portugal | PRT | 1,511 | 2,052 | 2,222 | 2,367 | 2,150 | 2,151 | 1,265 |
| Sweden | SWE | 1,999 | 1,948 | 1,927 | 1,830 | 1,497 | 1,847 | 1,791 |
| Slovenia | SVN | 1,519 | 1,442 | 1,476 | 1,286 | 1,403 | 1,257 | 1,224 |
| Slovakia | SVK | – | 1,512 | 1,766 | 1,810 | 1,856 | 1,847 | – |
| Total | 38,308 | 41,436 | 36,166 | 38,434 | 38,795 | 38,770 | 35,373 | |
Social capital (as a factor of 13 variables), control function estimates
| Economy | Culture | Place to live | Same race | Different race | Poorer/non-EU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | 0.827*** (0.0288) | 1.091 (0.0612) | 1.020 (0.0507) | 0.962 (0.0382) | 0.975 (0.0418) | 1.014 (0.0461) |
| Age | 1.006 (0.0208) | 0.939*** (0.0118) | 0.932*** (0.0141) | 0.950* (0.0266) | 0.900*** (0.0208) | 0.879*** (0.0166) |
| Education Level | 1.771*** (0.0752) | 1.774*** (0.0707) | 1.712*** (0.0718) | 1.770*** (0.0962) | 1.876*** (0.0962) | 1.713*** (0.0826) |
| Marital status | 0.987 (0.0712) | 0.986 (0.0267) | 0.942 (0.0355) | 0.834*** (0.0549) | 0.854** (0.0534) | 0.932 (0.0613) |
| Health status | 1.112*** (0.0262) | 1.081*** (0.0227) | 1.131*** (0.0352) | 1.152*** (0.0436) | 1.149*** (0.0437) | 1.123*** (0.0406) |
| Income level | 1.168*** (0.0354) | 1.081*** (0.0238) | 1.070*** (0.0164) | 1.163*** (0.0214) | 1.121*** (0.0236) | 1.102*** (0.0298) |
| Domicile | 1.163*** (0.0453) | 1.203*** (0.0736) | 1.172*** (0.0463) | 1.129*** (0.0379) | 1.148*** (0.0377) | 1.083** (0.0364) |
| Employment status | 0.845** (0.063) | 0.821** (0.062) | 0.888 (0.0859) | 0.838** (0.0680) | 0.800** (0.0893) | 0.920 (0.124) |
| Religiousness | 1.107*** (0.0270) | 1.104** (0.0434) | 1.148*** (0.0338) | 1.478 (0.492) | 1.478 (0.495) | 1.267 (0.416) |
| Political orientation | 0.757*** (0.0367) | 0.664*** (0.0398) | 0.693*** (0.0384) | 0.742*** (0.0281) | 0.658*** (0.0331) | 0.655*** (0.0327) |
| Immigrant parents | 1.611*** (0.149) | 1.492*** (0.0840) | 1.695*** (0.130) | 1.314*** (0.0577) | 1.304*** (0.0814) | 1.264*** (0.0749) |
| Social capital | 2.101*** (0.398) | 2.611*** (0.547) | 2.352*** (0.666) | 1.101*** (0.0406) | 1.090** (0.0383) | 1.154*** (0.0373) |
| DHighSDPcap | 1.142*** (0.0321) | 1.319 (0.424) | 1.246 (0.395) | 1.354 (0.462) | 1.254 (0.478) | 1.307 (0.536) |
| DHighDebt | 1.125*** (0.0407) | 0.654 (0.225) | 0.731 (0.266) | 0.784 (0.249) | 0.586 (0.263) | 0.619 (0.309) |
| DHighElderlyPop | 0.759 (0.139) | 1.060 (0.387) | 1.021 (0.375) | 1.144(0.347) | 1.138 (0.510) | 1.032 (0.509) |
| DHighAsylumSeekers | 0.407*** (0.109) | 0.561 (0.233) | 0.492* (0.208) | 0.768 (0.344) | 0.466 (0.225) | 0.447 (0.233) |
| DHighForeignStock | 0.451*** (0.0936) | 0.773 (0.277) | 0.705 (0.242) | 1.056 (0.329) | 0.682 (0.263) | 0.703 (0.300) |
| DHighNationalityAcq | 0.741 (0.214) | 0.738 (0.280) | 0.956 (0.325) | 0.611 (0.196) | 0.982 (0.371) | 0.944 (0.398) |
| DColonialTradition | 1.273 (0.338) | 0.894 (0.249) | 0.697 (0.285) | 1.037 (0.514) | 1.574 (0.830) | 1.497 (0.829) |
| DHighGDPcap&HighForeignStock | 3.312*** (0.907) | 1.004 (0.406) | 1.118 (0.480) | 1.324 (0.576) | 2.362* (1.137) | 2.616* (1.402) |
| DHighSocialCapital&HighAsylumSeekers | 1.085** (0.0354) | 1.067 (0.180) | 1.175 (0.175) | 1.121 (0.112) | 1.104(0.126) | 1.082 (0.127) |
| DHighSocialCapital&HighForeignStock | 1.199*** (0.0664) | 1.073 (0.115) | 1.254*** (0.0877) | 1.166* (0.0955) | 1.134 (0.0934) | 1.070 (0.0961) |
| DHighSocialCapital&HighNationalityAcq | 1.031 (0.113) | 1.201 (0.209) | 1.064(0.143) | 0.957 (0.121) | 1.037 (0.138) | 1.101 (0.154) |
| DHighSocialCapital&Unemployment | 1.142*** (0.0426) | 1.139*** (0.0427) | 1.133*** (0.0416) | 1.043 (0.0590) | 1.120 (0.105) | 0.950 (0.0588) |
| DHighSocialCapital&Lowlncome | 1.099** (0.0433) | 0.997 (0.0451) | 1.092*** (0.0278) | 1.111*** (0.0272) | 1.102** (0.0432) | 1.137*** (0.0328) |
| Control term | 0.826 (0.139) | 0.619** (0.124) | 0.738 (0.182) | 0.965 (0.284) | 0.998 (0.291) | 1.114 (0.321) |
| Observations | 165,173 | 165,772 | 165,331 | 165,779 | 165,772 | 165,573 |
Country trends toward immigration (“immigration is bad/good for a country’s economy”)
| Country | Wave 2002–2004 | Wave 2006–2008 | Wave 2012–2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 2.89 | – | 2.61 |
| Belgium | 2.47 | 2.55 | 2.42 |
| Czech Republic | 2.44 | 2.31 | 2.13 |
| Denmark | 2.54 | 2.72 | 2.56 |
| Estonia | – | 2.47 | 2.64 |
| Finland | 2.73 | 2.80 | 2.71 |
| France | 2.72 | 2.57 | 2.45 |
| Germany | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.89 |
| Greece | 2.14 | 2.04 | – |
| Hungary | 2.33 | 2.08 | 2.12 |
| Ireland | 2.63 | 2.60 | 2.64 |
| Italy | 2.79 | – | – |
| Netherlands | 2.61 | 2.76 | 2.56 |
| Norway | 2.79 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
| Poland | 2.49 | 2.83 | 2.61 |
| Portugal | 2.55 | 2.66 | 2.67 |
| Slovak Republic | – | 2.41 | – |
| Slovenia | 2.41 | 2.39 | 2.31 |
| Spain | 2.79 | 2.73 | 2.65 |
| Sweden | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.89 |
| Switzerland | 2.97 | 3.06 | 3.05 |
| United Kingdom | 2.44 | 2.53 | 2.59 |
| Sample mean | 2.61 | 2.59 | 2.60 |
Estimates of Europeans’ attitude toward different immigrant types (odd ratios)
| Variable | Same race | Different race | Poorer/non-EU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | 0.974 (0.016) | 1.004 (0.028) | 1.051** (0.025) |
| Age | 0.946** (0.026) | 0.895*** (0.021) | 0.876*** (0.016) |
| Education level | 1.641*** (0.061) | 1.728*** (0.061) | 1.562*** (0.043) |
| Marital status | 0.836*** (0.058) | 0.854** (0.055) | 0.939 (0.064) |
| Health status | 1.116*** (0.019) | 1.110*** (0.016) | 1.075*** (0.018) |
| Income level | 1.156*** (0.020) | 1.115*** (0.022) | 1.096*** (0.027) |
| Domicile | 1.145*** (0.042) | 1.176*** (0.038) | 1.107*** (0.036) |
| Employment status | 0.843** (0.067) | 0.802* (0.092) | 0.930 (0.126) |
| Religiousness | 1.046 (0.036) | 1.021 (0.034) | 1.066* (0.037) |
| Political orientation | 0.752*** (0.027) | 0.669*** (0.032) | 0.666*** (0.031) |
| Immigrant parents | 1.352*** (0.060) | 1.335*** (0.075) | 1.292*** (0.065) |
| Trust people | 2.445*** (0.244) | 2.295*** (0.197) | 2.052*** (0.146) |
| Trust legal system | 0.905 (0.101) | 0.937 (0.118) | 0.908 (0.106) |
| State of health services | 1.080 (0.061) | 1.072 (0.058) | 1.061 (0.045) |
| State of education system | 0.964 (0.035) | 0.959 (0.033) | 0.942 (0.036) |
| Social interaction | 1.009 (0.023) | 0.995 (0.029) | 1.025 (0.032) |
| Church attendance | 1.187*** (0.067) | 1.269*** (0.087) | 1.343*** (0.095) |
| Worked in political/action group | 1.232*** (0.053) | 1.272*** (0.096) | 1.289*** (0.077) |
| Contacted politician/government | 1.139*** (0.042) | 1.127*** (0.052) | 1.074* (0.040) |
| Worn campaign badge/sticker | 1.223*** (0.024) | 1.266*** (0.048) | 1.247*** (0.037) |
| Taken part in demonstrations | 1.361*** (0.045) | 1.509*** (0.082) | 1.508*** (0.079) |
| Member of trade union | 0.966 (0.035) | 0.981 (0.037) | 0.982 (0.040) |
| Feel safe | 1.244*** (0.050) | 1.344*** (0.042) | 1.297*** (0.029) |
| Victim of burglary/assault | 1.054 (0.036) | 1.049 (0.038) | 1.072** (0.032) |
| DHighGDPcap | 1.359 (0.444) | 1.255 (0.455) | 1.292 (0.511) |
| DHighDebt | 0.788 (0.222) | 0.580 (0.240) | 0.631 (0.293) |
| DHighElderlyPop | 1.170 (0.340) | 1.173 (0.504) | 1.056 (0.501) |
| DHighAsylumSeekers | 0.771 (0.316) | 0.471* (0.208) | 0.450 (0.221) |
| DHighForeignStock | 1.026 (0.295) | 0.671 (0.241) | 0.673 (0.270) |
| DHighNationalityAcq | 0.598 (0.195) | 0.977 (0.368) | 0.908 (0.384) |
| DColonialTradition | 1.015 (0.468) | 1.560 (0.760) | 1.493 (0.788) |
| DHighGDPcap&HighForeignStock | 1.174 (0.518) | 2.073 (1.024) | 2.323 (1.297) |
| DHighTrust&HighAsylumSeekers | 1.221 (0.149) | 1.205 (0.160) | 1.192 (0.162) |
| DHighTrust&HighForeignStock | 1.324** (0.172) | 1.285* (0.172) | 1.228 (0.169) |
| DHighTrust&HighNationalityAcq | 1.017 (0.134) | 1.100 (0.151) | 1.172 (0.173) |
| DHighTrust&Unemployment | 1.081 (0.057) | 1.167 (0.110) | 0.991 (0.066) |
| DHighTrust&LowIncome | 1.075* (0.040) | 1.059** (0.029) | 1.063** (0.030) |
| Control term | 0.676 (0.231) | 0.912 (0.382) | 0.965 ( 0.465) |
| Observations | 165,779 | 165,772 | 165,573 |
Estimates of Europeans’ attitude toward immigrants (odd ratios)
| Variable | Economy | Culture | Place to live |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | 0.832*** (0.022) | 1.066 (0.045) | 1.028 (0.038) |
| Age | 1.004 (0.018) | 0.934*** (0.012) | 0.925*** (0.014) |
| Education level | 1.703*** (0.069) | 1.735*** (0.071) | 1.653*** (0.062) |
| Marital status | 0.987 (0.077) | 0.969 (0.028) | 0.933* (0.037) |
| Health status | 1.083*** (0.025) | 1.088*** (0.022) | 1.107*** (0.016) |
| Income level | 1.158*** (0.040) | 1.075*** (0.029) | 1.070*** (0.023) |
| Domicile | 1.187*** (0.041) | 1.202*** (0.063) | 1.204*** (0.043) |
| Employment status | 0.833** (0.071) | 0.921* (0.044) | 0.802*** (0.058) |
| Religiousness | 1.052*** (0.017) | 1.077*** (0.029) | 1.076*** (0.024) |
| Political orientation | 0.761*** (0.035) | 0.676*** (0.039) | 0.697*** (0.037) |
| Immigrant parents | 1.649*** (0.139) | 1.560*** (0.076) | 1.742*** (0.121) |
| Trust people | 2.792*** (0.127) | 3.302*** (0.329) | 3.157*** (0.334) |
| Trust legal system | 1.159*** (0.059) | 1.140 (0.117) | 1.066 (0.117) |
| State of health services | 1.314*** (0.054) | 1.065 (0.067) | 1.219*** (0.059) |
| State of education system | 1.044 (0.030) | 1.044 (0.039) | 1.090*** (0.030) |
| Social interaction | 1.010 (0.017) | 1.054*** (0.019) | 1.001 (0.016) |
| Church attendance | 1.176*** (0.055) | 1.099 (0.077) | 1.264*** (0.085) |
| Worked in political/ action group | 1.419*** (0.091) | 1.279** (0.127) | 1.326*** (0.088) |
| Contacted politician/ government | 1.096** (0.044) | 1.082** (0.034) | 1.075* (0.046) |
| Worn campaign badge/sticker | 1.138*** (0.024) | 1.254*** (0.039) | 1.199*** (0.041) |
| Taken part in demonstrations | 1.524*** (0.068) | 1.619*** (0.068) | 1.480*** (0.056) |
| Member of trade union | 0.931 (0.050) | 1.024 (0.039) | 0.971 (0.035) |
| Feel safe | 1.409*** (0.058) | 1.398*** (0.072) | 1.529*** (0.064) |
| Victim of burglary/assault | 1.025 (0.019) | 1.082** (0.040) | 1.034 (0.030) |
| DHighGDPcap | 1.350*** (0.264) | 1.427 (0.409) | 1.303 (0.374) |
| DHighDebt | 0.553* (0.171) | 0.753 (0.192) | 0.639 (0.208) |
| DHighElderlyPop | 0.790 (0.132) | 1.121 (0.390) | 1.100 (0.381) |
| DHighAsylumSeekers | 0.425*** (0.094) | 0.598 (0.239) | 0.508* (0.193) |
| DHighForeignStock | 0.491*** (0.088) | 0.899 (0.322) | 0.777 (0.260) |
| DHighNationalityAcq | 0.779 (0.184) | 0.832 (0.278) | 1.055 (0.310) |
| DColonialTradition | 1.220 (0.260) | 0.844 (0.208) | 0.671 (0.227) |
| DHighGDPcap&HighForeignStock | 2.975*** (0.729) | 0.820 (0.325) | 0.942 (0.367) |
| DHighTrust&HighAsylumSeekers | 1.159* (0.101) | 1.057 (0.166) | 1.223 (0.177) |
| DHighTrust&HighForeignStock | 1.206*** (0.069) | 1.084 (0.132) | 1.327*** (0.146) |
| DHighTrust&HighNationalityAcq | 1.055 (0.104) | 1.234 (0.206) | 1.098 (0.148) |
| DHighTrust&Unemployment | 1.029 (0.057) | 1.132** (0.058) | 1.175** (0.086) |
| DHighTrust&LowIncome | 1.103** (0.053) | 0.998 (0.042) | 1.062** (0.029) |
| Control term | 0.753 (0.278) | 0.745 (0.238) | 0.932 (0.356) |
| Observations | 165,173 | 165,772 | 165,331 |
Summary statistics
| Variable | Source | Obs | Mean | Standard | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| y variables | ||||||
| Economy | ESS | 256,331 | 2.591 | 0.935 | 1 | 4 |
| Culture | ESS | 256,850 | 2.561 | 1.071 | 1 | 4 |
| Place to live | ESS | 256,441 | 2.614 | 0.892 | 1 | 4 |
| Same race | ESS | 259,601 | 2.778 | 0.849 | 1 | 4 |
| Different race | ESS | 259,392 | 2.507 | 0.872 | 1 | 4 |
| Poorer/non-EU | 258,859 | 2.437 | 0.890 | 1 | 4 | |
| x variables | ||||||
| Sociodemographic | ||||||
| Gender | ESS | 267,005 | 0.532 | 0.499 | 0 | 1 |
| Age | ESS | 267,282 | 3.754 | 1.694 | 1 | 6 |
| Education level | ESS | 265,758 | 2.279 | 0.466 | 1 | 3 |
| Marital status | ESS | 267,282 | 0.298 | 0.457 | 0 | 1 |
| Health status | ESS | 266,995 | 2.584 | 0.635 | 1 | 3 |
| Income level | ESS | 199,430 | 1.845 | 0.736 | 1 | 3 |
| Domicile | ESS | 266,503 | 1.625 | 0.484 | 1 | 2 |
| Employment Status | ESS | 267,282 | 0.055 | 0.227 | 0 | 1 |
| Religiousness | ESS | 265,197 | 1.945 | 0.819 | 1 | 3 |
| Political orientation | ESS | 235,269 | 1.924 | 0.750 | 1 | 3 |
| Immigrant parents | ESS | 266,854 | 0.144 | 0.352 | 0 | 1 |
| Social capital | ||||||
| Trust people | ESS | 266,438 | 0.644 | 0.479 | 0 | 1 |
| Trust legal system | ESS | 260,985 | 0.640 | 0.480 | 0 | 1 |
| State of health services | ESS | 263,854 | 0.649 | 0.477 | 0 | 1 |
| State of education system | ESS | 254,428 | 0.552 | 0.497 | 0 | 1 |
| Social interaction | ESS | 266,668 | 0.623 | 0.485 | 0 | 1 |
| Church attendance | ESS | 266,088 | 0.256 | 0.436 | 0 | 1 |
| Worked in political/action group | ESS | 266,492 | 0.040 | 0.196 | 0 | 1 |
| Contacted politician/government | ESS | 266,424 | 0.147 | 0.354 | 0 | 1 |
| Worn campaign badge/ sticker | ESS | 266,294 | 0.077 | 0.267 | 0 | 1 |
| Taken part in demonstrations | ESS | 266,388 | 0.066 | 0.248 | 0 | 1 |
| Member of trade union | ESS | 263,952 | 0.424 | 0.494 | 0 | 1 |
| Feel safe | ESS | 264,863 | 0.776 | 0.417 | 0 | 1 |
| Victim of burglary/ assault | ESS | 266,551 | 0.188 | 0.390 | 0 | 1 |
| Feel fair treated as instrument | ESS | 265,389 | 0.537 | 0.499 | 0 | 1 |
| Macroeconomic | ||||||
| GDP per capita (constant 2011, PPP) | WDI | 267,282 | 38,801 | 18,877 | 8,815 | 90,807 |
| Debt (% GDP) | WDI | 267,282 | 57.67 | 28.51 | 4.400 | 146.2 |
| Elderly population (% population) | CIA | 267,282 | 18.47 | 2.071 | 12.84 | 21.76 |
| Foreign participation | ||||||
| Asylum seekers (% population) | OECD | 267,282 | 0.101 | 0.120 | 0.0005 | 0.774 |
| Stock of foreigners (% population) | OECD | 267,282 | 6.623 | 4.784 | 0.0164 | 23.78 |
| Nationality acquisition (% population) | OECD | 267,282 | 0.189 | 0.148 | 0.0026 | 0.624 |
| Colonial tradition | Gallaher et al. (2009) | 267,282 | 0.39 | 0.488 | 0 | 1 |