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Local agricultural markets and external shocks – the case of Poland Cover

Local agricultural markets and external shocks – the case of Poland

International Journal of Management and Economics
Volume 61 (2025): Issue 1 (March 2025)
By: ,  ,   and    
Open Access
|Mar 2025
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

Table 1.

Variables used in models

VariableDescriptionSource
wheat_plnPurchase price of wheat (PLN/t)CSO in Poland
corn_plnPurchase price of corn (PLN/t)CSO in Poland
rapeseed_plnPurchase price of rapeseed (PLN/t)Ministry of Agriculture
wheat_cropWheat harvest volume in Poland (annual data)Eurostat
corn_cropCorn harvest volume in Poland (annual data)Eurostat
rapeseed_cropRapeseed harvest volume in Poland (annual data)Eurostat
wheat_eur_fWheat futures price at the end of the month (EUR/t)Euronext
corn_eur_fCorn futures price at the end of the month (EUR/t)Euronext
rapeseed_eur_fRapeseed futures price at the end of the month (EUR/t)Euronext
eurplnEUR/PLN exchange rate at the end of the monthNBP
eurpln_sdStandard deviation of the EUR/PLN exchange rate in each month calculated from daily quotationsOwn calculations, NBP
freightSea freight price index on the European grain market at the end of the month (2013 = 100)Own calculations, IGC*

1 Note: All data are in natural logarithms (excl. eurpln_sd and freight).

1* IGC-International Grain Council

1 NBP, National Bank of Poland.

Table 2.

Error correction models

WheatCornRapeseed
eurpln0.665***
(0.237)		0.948*
(0.529)		0.898***
(0.260)
wheat_eur_f1.05***
(0.040)
corn_eur_f0.922***
(0.091)
rapeseed_eur_f0.946***
(0.43)
cons0.157
(0.226)		0.347
(0.474)		0.487*
(0.250
EC term (t – 1)–0.245**
(0.079)		–0.530***
(0.0876)		–0.511***
(0.0723)
Δ eurpln (t – 1)0.488
(0.248)		–1.510**
(0.568)		–0.265
(0.213)
Δ wheat_pl (t – 1)0.217*
(0.098)
Δ wheat_eur_f (t – 1)0.211*
(0.101)
Δ corn_pl (t – 1)0.417***
(0.093)
Δ corn_eur_f (t – 1)0.085
(0.186)
Δ rapeseed_pl (t – 1)0.218**
(0.071)
Δ rapeseed_eur_f (t – 1)0.008
(0.10)
Cons0.001
(0.004)		0.002
(0.009)		0.002
(0.003)
R20.401 1040.380 1040.604 104
N104104104

1 Note: Standard errors of parameter estimates are given in parentheses.

1* p< 0.10,

1** p< 0.05,

1*** p< 0.01.

Table 3.

The reaction function of wheat prices in Poland (PLN) to changes in the price of futures contracts for wheat (in EUR)

Month
0123456
WheatΔ wheat_pl (t – 1)0.262***
(0.080)		0.437***
(0.122)		0.500***
(0.155)		0.415**
(0.188)		0.324
(0.201)		0.431*
(0.218)		0.426*
(0.238)
Δ wheat_eur_f0.494***
(0.053)		0.869***
(0.081)		0.999***
(0.102)		1.090***
(0.125)		1.142***
(0.131)		1.195***
(0.139)		1.101***
(0.144)
Δ wheat_eur_f (t – 1)0.253***
(0.067)		0.322***
(0.101)		0.402***
(0.133)		0.545***
(0.158)		0.637***
(0.167)		0.503***
(0.177)		0.583***
(0.189)
Δ eurpln–0.020
(0.171)		0.375
(0.273)		0.569
(0.362)		0.845*
(0.431)		0.748
(0.464)		1.035**
(0.504)		1.000*
(0.529)
Δ eurpln (t – 1)0.333*
(0.179)		0.580**
(0.277)		0.868**
(0.353)		0.697
(0.426)		0.858*
(0.458)		0.903*
(0.481)		0.792
(0.502)
CornΔ corn_pl (t – 1)–0.018
(0.112)		–0.215
(0.149)		–0.181
(0.168)		–0.156
(0.188)		–0.163
(0.208)		–0.318
(0.226)		–0.293
(0.233)
Δ corn_eur_f0.228
(0.153)		0.331
(0.210)		0.742***
(0.239)		0.837***
(0.269)		1.014***
(0.292)		1.061***
(0.320)		0.988***
(0.338)
Δ corn_eur_f (t – 1)0.157
(0.154)		0.618***
(0.207)		0.695***
(0.239)		0.885***
(0.263)		0.946***
(0.300)		0.886***
(0.324)		0.931***
(0.333)
Δ eurpln0.839*
(0.458)		0.431
(0.650)		0.789
(0.771)		0.508
(0.864)		0.754
(0.973)		1.883*
(1.045)		2.641**
(1.074)
Δ eurpln (t – 1)–0.169
(0.479)		0.358
(0.665)		0.286
(0.754)		0.232
(0.862)		0.950
(0.954)		2.165**
(0.998)		1.011
(1.062)
RapeseedΔ rapeseed_pl (t – 1)0.172**
(0.082)		–0.017
(0.111)		–0.033
(0.115)		0.152
(0.131)		0.248*
(0.143)		0.347**
(0.158)		0.343*
(0.181)
Δ rapeseed_eur_f0.318***
(0.070)		0.706***
(0.101)		1.037***
(0.104)		1.070***
(0.117)		0.864***
(0.126)		0.979***
(0.136)		1.041***
(0.144)
Δ rapeseed_eur_f (t – 1)0.412***
(0.081)		0.826***
(0.108)		0.846***
(0.116)		0.677***
(0.127)		0.704***
(0.135)		0.744***
(0.149)		0.831***
(0.156)
Δ eurpln0.263
(0.213)		0.377
(0.296)		0.538*
(0.317)		0.881**
(0.341)		1.304***
(0.367)		1.484***
(0.414)		1.396***
(0.442)
Δ eurpln (t – 1)–0.078
(0.223)		0.164
(0.304)		0.458
(0.315)		0.578
(0.350)		0.910**
(0.375)		0.788*
(0.406)		0.812*
(0.428)

1 Note: The table does not present estimates for monthly seasonal variables, the intercept, the freight prices, and crop volumes. The latter two turned out to be insignificant in most cases. Standard errors of model parameter estimates are given in parentheses.

1* p< 0.10,

1** p< 0.05,

1*** p< 0.01.

Table 4.

Wheat: the reaction function to changes in the price of futures contracts for wheat, corn, and rapeseed (EUR) depending on the level and volatility of the EUR/PLN exchange rate

Month
0123456
WheatAppreciation0.630***
(0.187)		0.922***
(0.326)		1.078**
(0.528)		1.340*
(0.720)		1.278
(0.879)		1.267
(1.042)		1.386
(1.212)
Depreciation0.823***
(0.114)		1.379***
(0.200)		1.467***
(0.324)		1.485***
(0.444)		1.652***
(0.561)		1.601**
(0.672)		1.816**
(0.786)
Difference0.4550.3090.5940.8840.7600.8190.801
Low Vol.0.570***
(0.154)		1.134***
(0.264)		1.405***
(0.421)		1.716***
(0.580)		1.886***
(0.710)		1.824**
(0.841)		1.612*
(0.963)
High Vol.0.968***
(0.154)		1.442***
(0.264)		1.512***
(0.424)		1.467**
(0.581)		1.565**
(0.709)		1.622*
(0.833)		2.375**
(0.961)
Diff (t-test)0.1390.5020.8850.8060.7940.8890.647
CornAppreciation–0.192
(0.528)		–0.474
(0.703)		0.746
(0.836)		1.768*
(0.999)		1.618
(1.135)		0.910
(1.289)		1.500
(1.394)
Depreciation0.675**
(0.318)		1.847***
(0.427)		1.934***
(0.520)		1.877**
(0.622)		2.571***
(0.720)		3.100***
(0.816)		3.126***
(0.905)
Difference0.2340.0180.3100.9380.5500.2280.408
Low Vol–0.370
(0.466)		–0.247
(0.627)		1.245*
(0.747)		1.800**
(0.877)		2.379**
(1.008)		3.551***
(1.142)		3.542***
(1.232)
High Vol.1.008***
(0.376)		2.073***
(0.516)		1.983***
(0.639)		2.244***
(0.746)		2.552***
(0.849)		1.894*
(0.968)		2.390**
(1.058)
Diff (t-test)0.060*0.021**0.5410.7530.9140.3670.560
RapeseedAppreciation0.498
(0.311)		0.720
(0.441)		0.804
(0.625)		0.526
(0.920)		0.342
(1.206)		0.067
(1.391)		–0.122
(1.563)
Depreciation0.782***
(0.124)		1.789***
(0.175)		2.340***
(0.249)		2.403***
(0.366)		2.449***
(0.491)		2.710***
(0.568)		3.078***
(0.642)
Difference0.4560.0500.0470.0970.1520.1190.094
Low Vol.0.810***
(0.203)		1.621***
(0.286)		1.735***
(0.403)		1.727***
(0.573)		1.563**
(0.755)		1.471*
(0.865)		1.103
(0.942)
High Vol.0.701***
(0.170)		1.594***
(0.246)		2.343***
(0.348)		2.422***
(0.493)		2.570***
(0.638)		2.974***
(0.729)		3.794***
(0.802)
Diff (t-test)0.7380.9540.3570.4570.4050.2770.077

1 Note: Only aggregated coefficients of the impulse response functions for low and high EUR/PLN FX level (upper panel) and low and high EUR/PLN volatility (lower panel) are presented. Detailed results are available upon request. Standard errors are given in parentheses.

1* p< 0.10,

1** p< 0.05,

1*** p< 0.01.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2024-0028 | Journal eISSN: 2543-5361 (formerly 2299-9701) | Journal ISSN: 2299-9701
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 3 - 16
Submitted on: Jul 12, 2023
Accepted on: May 8, 2024
Published on: Mar 31, 2025
Published by: SGH Warsaw School of Economics
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
ECM model,
exchange rate,
food security,
grains prices,
local projections model,
oilseeds prices
JEL:
D25,
G32,
G33
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Business management,
Management accounting, financial controlling, cost calculation, investment

© 2025 Piotr Ciżkowicz, Jaroslaw Janecki, Jakub Olipra, Wiktor Wojciechowski, published by SGH Warsaw School of Economics
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Volume 61 (2025): Issue 1 (March 2025)
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