Table 1
Unit root test results of primary surplus (PS), public debt stock (D), and output gap (OG) for Poland
| Variable | ADF | PP | KPSS | ZA (intercept and trend) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order | Test statistic | Critical value at a=5% | Break | ||||
| Primary surplus (PS) | I(2) | I(0) | I(0) | I(2) | –12.2056 | –4.8 | 2010 Q4 |
| Public debt stock (D) | I(I) | I(I) | I(I) | I(2) | –5.8836 | –4.8 | 2014 Q1 |
| Output gap (OG) | I(0) | I(I) | I(I) | I(0) | –6.7067 | –5.08 | 2008 Q4 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table 2
Values of the test statistic and the critical values of the maximal eigenvalue statistic of the Johansen procedure
| Number of vectors | Test | 10% | 5% | 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| r <= 2 | 3.74 | 6.5 | 8.18 | 11.65 |
| r <= 1 | 8.10 | 12.91 | 14.9 | 19.19 |
| r = 0 | 27.07 | 18.9 | 21.07 | 25.75 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table 3
Values of test statistic and critical values of trace statistic of Lütkepohl-Saikkonen-Trenkler test
| Number of vectors | Test | 10% | 5% | 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| r <= 2 | 6.30 | 5.42 | 6.79 | 10.04 |
| r <= 1 | 19.30 | 13.78 | 15.83 | 19.85 |
| r = 0 | 35.1 | 25.93 | 28.45 | 33.76 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table 4
Estimation results of fiscal reaction function for Poland from 2004 Q1 to 2017 Q2
| Coefficients | Estimate | Standard error | F-statistic | p-Value | Adjusted R-squared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –8.48962 | 2.99832 | 7.441 on 4 and 45 DF | 1.09E–04 | 0.3446 |
| PS4 | 0.55059 | 0.12596 | |||
| OG | 0.06635 | 0.04602 | |||
| OG4 | –0.01698 | 0.04840 | |||
| D4 | 0.15418 | 0.06012 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table A1
Estimation results of the fiscal reaction functions for Poland from 2004 Q1 to 2008 Q3
| Coefficients | Estimate | Std. error | F-statistic | p-Value | Adjusted R-squared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –26.82728 | 20.4400 | 2.547 on 4 and 10 DF | 0.1051 | 0.3065 |
| PS4 | 0.62989 | 0.34854 | |||
| OG | –0.08150 | 0.08279 | |||
| OG4 | 0.18791 | 0.19003 | |||
| D4 | 0.57735 | 0.42912 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table A2
Estimation results of the fiscal reaction functions for Poland from 2008 Q4 to 2017 Q2
| Coefficients | Estimate | Std. error | F-statistic | p-Value | Adjusted R-squared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –12.14877 | 3.51475 | 11.23 on 4 and 30 DF | 1.093E–05 | 0.5461 |
| PS4 | 0.46872 | 0.11830 | |||
| OG | 0.19921 | 0.07687 | |||
| OG4 | 0.08874 | 0.04901 | |||
| D4 | 0.21766 | 0.06726 |
[i] Source: own calculations
Table A3
Estimation results of fiscal reaction functions for Poland from 2004 Q1 to 2017 Q2 for gross consolidated debt without the effect of the redemption of the government bond share of the open pension funds
| Coefficients | Estimate | Std. error | F-statistic | p-Value | Adjusted R-squared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –7.37635 | 2.11326 | 8.601 on 4 and 45 DF | 3.034E–05 | 0.3829 |
| PS4 | 0.49810 | 0.12235 | |||
| OG | 0.07357 | 0.04482 | |||
| OG4 | –0.01576 | 0.04644 | |||
| D4 | 0.12523 | 0.04005 |
[i] Source: own calculations.
Table A4
Estimation results of fiscal reaction functions for Poland from 2008 Q4 to 2017 Q2 for the gross consolidated debt without the effect of the redemption of the government bond share of the open pension funds
| Coefficients | Estimate | Std. error | F-statistic | p-Value | Adjusted R-squared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | –17.26222 | 3.72530 | 17.76on 4 and 45 DF | 3.857E–07 | 0.6908 |
| PS4 | 0.25440 | 0.13643 | |||
| OG | 0.15516 | 0.08800 | |||
| OG4 | 0.06402 | 0.05499 | |||
| D4 | 0.28941 | 0.06353 |
[i] Source: own calculations.