Graph 1.1
Graph 1.2
Graph 1.3
Graph 1.4
Granger causality test of GDP and natural gas export
| Pairwise Granger causality tests | |||
| Sample: 1997–2015 | |||
| Lags: 5 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-statistic | Prob |
| NGEX does not Granger cause GDP | 13 | 38.1912 | 0.025 |
| GDP does not Granger cause NGEX | 1.80252 | 0.394 |
Granger causality test of GDP and crude oil price
| Pairwise Granger causality tests | |||
| Sample: 1997–2015 | |||
| Lags: 2 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-statistic | Prob |
| COP does not Granger cause GDP | 16 | 3.66813 | 0.06 |
| GDP does not Granger cause COP | 4.06009 | 0.04 |
ADF test results
| Variables | t-ADF statistic | Critical (1%) | Critical (5%) | Con. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -2.065634* | -2.708094 | -1.962813 | S. (D1) |
| COR | -3.567248* | -3.920350 | -3.065585 | S. (D1) |
| COPRO | -2.965859** | -2.792154 | -1.977738 | S. (D1) |
| COP | -3.245009* | -3.886751 | -3.052169 | S. (D1) |
| COEX | -1.976553* | -2.708094 | -1.962813 | S. (D1) |
| NGR | -4.768303** | -3.886751 | -3.052169 | S. (D1) |
| NGPRO | -3.965802** | -3.886751 | -3.052169 | S. (D1) |
| NGP | -5.384605** | -3.886751 | -3.052169 | S. (D1) |
| NGEX | -4.875451** | -3.886751 | -3.052169 | S. (D1) |
Regression analysis of GDP and crude oil variables
| Dependent variable: GDP | ||||
| Method: Least squares | ||||
| Included observations | 18 after adjustments | |||
| Variable | Coefficient | Standard error | t-statistic | Prob |
| C | 4.60E+10 | 4.32E+10 | 1.064925 | 0.3063 |
| COR | 3.85E+09 | 2.87E+09 | 1.338145 | 0.2038 |
| COPRO | -92,240,264 | 1.12E+08 | -0.824405 | 0.4246 |
| COP | 1.86E+10 | 2.31E+09 | 8.062539 | 0.0000 |
| COEX | 423,908.5 | 1,376,989 | 0.307852 | 0.7631 |
| R2 | 0.893604 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.860867 | |||
| F-statistic | 27.29624 | |||
| Prob(F-statistic) | 0.000003 | |||
Granger causality test of GDP and natural gas price
| Pairwise Granger causality tests | |||
| Sample: 1997–2015 | |||
| Lags: 3 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-statistic | Prob |
| NGP does not Granger cause GDP | 15 | 4.47730 | 0.040 |
| GDP does not Granger cause NGP | 0.19680 | 0.895 |
Granger causality test of GDP and crude oil export
| Pairwise Granger causality tests | |||
| Sample: 1997–2015 | |||
| Lags: 2 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-statistic | Prob |
| COEX does not Granger cause GDP | 16 | 0.58534 | 0.573 |
| GDP does not Granger cause COEX | 4.93429 | 0.029 |
Regression analysis of GDP and natural gas variables
| Dependent variable: GDP | ||||
| Method: least squares | ||||
| Included observations: 18 after adjustments | ||||
| Variable | Coefficient | Standard error | t-statistic | Prob |
| C | 9.00E+09 | 5.94E+10 | 0.151532 | 0.8819 |
| NGR | -9.10E+08 | 9.56E+08 | -0.952607 | 0.3582 |
| NGPRO | 255,242.5 | 56,828.79 | 4.491430 | 0.0006 |
| NGP | -2.72E+10 | 4.06E+10 | -0.668511 | 0.5155 |
| NGEX | -131,583.6 | 107,041.2 | -1.229280 | 0.2408 |
| R2 | 0.721312 | |||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.635562 | |||
| F-statistic | 8.411799 | |||
| Prob (F-statistic) | 0.001407 | |||