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A numerical approach for an epidemic SIR model via Morgan-Voyce series Cover

A numerical approach for an epidemic SIR model via Morgan-Voyce series

By: Özgül İlhan and  Gözde Şahin  
Open Access
|Oct 2023

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1

Comparison of the residual errors of S(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).
Comparison of the residual errors of S(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).

Fig. 2

Comparison of the residual errors of I(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).
Comparison of the residual errors of I(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).

Fig. 3

Comparison of the residual errors of R(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).
Comparison of the residual errors of R(t) (without vaccination) for equation (1).

Fig. 4

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.005 via M-VCM.
The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.005 via M-VCM.

Fig. 5

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.01 via M-VCM.
The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.01 via M-VCM.

Fig. 6

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.02 via M-VCM.
The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.02 via M-VCM.

Fig. 7

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.03 via M-VCM.
The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.03 via M-VCM.

Fig. 8

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.06 via M-VCM.
The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0.06 via M-VCM.

Comparisons of the values of R(t) for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tR(t) (HPM)R(t) (HCM for L=5)R(t) (LADM)R(t) Morgan-Voyce

0.210.0610807310.0610807310.0610807310.0610807329
0.410.1243240510.1243240510.1243240510.1243240513
0.610.1897275010.1897275110.1897275010.1897275117
0.810.2572830410.2572831710.2572830410.2572831742
1.010.3269769810.3269776010.3269769810.3269776025

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0_02 via M-VCM_

tERSERIERR

0.13.1084×10−71.0500×10−92.4970×10−7
0.24.0778×10−72.0300×10−92.9760×10−7
0.35.2230×10−73.2950×10−93.5110×10−7
0.46.5640×10−74.0000×10−94.1066×10−7
0.58.1100×10−76.8300×10−94.7650×10−7
0.69.9065×10−79.2000×10−95.4925×10−7
0.71.1948×10−71.2043×10−86.2904×10−7
0.81.4266×10−71.5405×10−87.1630×10−7
0.91.6880×10−61.9000×10−88.1140×10−7
11.9819×10−62.4010×10−89.1494×10−7

Comparisons of the residual errors ERS for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tERS (HPM)ERS (HCM for L=5)ERS (LADM)ERS M-VCM

0.22.2416×10−81.0080×10−92.2417×10−83.8045×10−9
0.46.6425×10−71.0201×10−96.6427×10−74.4120×10−9
0.64.6388×10−61.0363×10−94.6389×10−65.2320×10−9
0.81.7832×10−51.0566×10−91.7833×10−56.3120×10−9
1.04.9171×10−51.9918×10−74.9172×10−51.9256×10−7

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0_005 via M-VCM_

tERSERIERR

0.12.0017×10−72.0805×10−81.0544×10−8
0.22.4419×10−72.5143×10−81.1137×10−8
0.32.9299×10−72.9958×10−81.1797×10−8
0.43.4678×10−73.5273×10−81.2529×10−8
0.54.0577×10−74.1114×10−81.3337×10−8
0.64.7020×10−74.7505×10−81.4226×10−8
0.75.4027×10−75.4471×10−81.5200×10−8
0.86.1622×10−76.2036×10−81.6262×10−8
0.96.9824×10−77.0221×10−81.7416×10−8
17.8657×10−77.9046×10−81.8661×10−8

Comparisons of the residual errors ERI for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tERI (HPM)ERI (HCM for L=5)ERI (LADM)ERI M-VCM

0.22.0373×10−81.0080×10−92.0375×10−88.9114×10−9
0.45.9888 ×10−71.0201×10−95.9892×10−79.0230×10−9
0.64.1424×10−61.0363×10−94.1426×10−69.0493×10−9
0.81.5741×10−51.0566×10−91.5741×10−58.9952×10−9
1.04.2787×10−51.9918×10−74.2789×10−54.4706×10−7

Comparisons of the residual errors ERR for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tERR (HPM)ERR (HCM for L=5)ERR (LADM)ERR M-VCM

0.21.5573×10−91.7802×10−121.5573×10−91.9663×10−9
0.47.7657×10−93.5556×10−127.7656×10−92.7950×10−9
0.62.0477×10−75.3304×10−122.0477×10−73.7913×10−9
0.81.1701×10−67.1090×10−121.1701×10−64.9600×10−9
1.04.1334×10−64.5486 ×10−74.1334×10−62.4930×10−7

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0_01 via M-VCM_

tERSERIERR

0.15.1591×10−89.3905×10−81.7736×10−9
0.25.5453×10−81.1294×10−72.5089×10−9
0.35.9708×10−81.3399×10−73.4104×10−9
0.46.4395×10−81.5712×10−74.4980×10−9
0.56.9554×10−81.8243×10−75.7929×10−9
0.67.5227×10−82.1000×10−77.3172×10−9
0.78.1458×10−82.3993×10−79.0941×10−9
0.88.8295×10−82.7229×10−71.1148×10−8
0.99.5794×10−83.0717×10−71.3503×10−8
11.0402×10−73.4464×10−71.6184×10−8

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0_03 via M-VCM_

tERSERIERR

0.12.2100×10−83.7200×10−86.9600×10−10
0.22.7380×10−84.9700×10−81.7400×10−9
0.33.3490×10−86.4701×10−83.0619×10−9
0.44.0500×10−88.2200×10−84.6670×10−9
0.54.8700×10−81.0270×10−76.6010×10−9
0.65.7000×10−81.2640×10−78.9000×10−9
0.76.8390×10−81.5347×10−71.1605×10−8
0.88.0117×10−81.8420×10−71.4750×10−8
0.99.3220×10−82.1914×10−71.8380×10−8
11.0780×10−72.5836×10−72.2531×10−8

The residual errors for equation (1), ν = 0_06 via M-VCM_

tERSERIERR

0.18.5647×10−75.4000×10−82.0762×10−7
0.29.5890×10−75.3700×10−82.4940×10−7
0.31.0660×10−65.2000×10−82.9568×10−7
0.41.1792×10−64.9930×10−83.4662×10−7
0.51.2972×10−64.6100×10−84.0240×10−7
0.61.4202×10−64.0964×10−84.6333×10−7
0.71.5484×10−63.4200×10−85.2955×10−7
0.81.6819×10−62.5800×10−86.0120×10−7
0.91.8205×10−61.5672×10−86.7870×10−7
11.9641×10−63.7710×10−97.6213×10−7

Comparisons of the values of I(t) for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tI(t) (HPM)I(t) (HCM for L=5)I(t) (LADM)I(t) M-VCM

0.215.5404936915.5404937015.5404936915.5404936937
0.416.0810636316.0810636716.0810636316.081063672
0.616.6203352716.6203357016.6203352716.6203357015
0.817.1569334617.1569356717.1569334517.156935671
1.017.6894946517.6895023617.6894946417.6895023739

Comparisons of the values of S(t) for HPM, HCM, LADM and M-VCM for example 1_

tS(t) (HPM)S(t) (HCM for L=5)S(t) (LADM)S(t) M-VCM

0.219.3984255719.3984255619.3984255719.3984255735
0.418.7946123218.7946122718.7946123218.7946122770
0.618.1899372718.1899367718.1899372718.1899367871
0.817.5857836617.5857811517.5857836617.5857811555
1.016.9835288316.9835200116.9835288316.9835200246
Language: English
Page range: 125 - 140
Submitted on: Aug 3, 2023
Accepted on: Sep 11, 2023
Published on: Oct 31, 2023
Published by: Harran University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2023 Özgül İlhan, Gözde Şahin, published by Harran University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.