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A Critical Comparison of Machine Learning Classifiers to Predict Match Outcomes in the NFL Cover

A Critical Comparison of Machine Learning Classifiers to Predict Match Outcomes in the NFL

Open Access
|Dec 2020

Abstract

In this paper, we critically evaluate the performance of nine machine learning classification techniques when applied to the match outcome prediction problem presented by American Football. Specifically, we implement and test nine techniques using real-world datasets of 1280 games over 5 seasons from the National Football League (NFL). We test the nine different classifier techniques using a total of 42 features for each team and we find that the best performing algorithms are able to improve one previous published works. The algoriothms achieve an accuracy of between 44.64% for a Guassian Process classifier to 67.53% with a Naïve Bayes classifer. We also test each classifier on a year by year basis and compare our results to those of the bookmakers and other leading academic papers.

Language: English
Page range: 36 - 50
Published on: Dec 31, 2020
Published by: International Association of Computer Science in Sport
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2020 Ryan Beal, Timothy J. Norman, Sarvapali D. Ramchurn, published by International Association of Computer Science in Sport
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.