Debt Sustainability Analysis in Reformed EU Fiscal Rules
By:
References
- Alloza, M., Burriel, P., & Pérez, J. (2019). Fiscal policies in the euro area: Revisiting the size of spillovers. Journal of Macroeconomics, 61, 103132.
- Auclert, A., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2024). The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross. Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming).
- Auerbach, A., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 1–27.
- Batini, N., Eyraud, L., Forni, L., & Weber, A. (2014, September). Fiscal multipliers: size, determinants, and use in macroeconomic projections (IMF Technical Notes and Manuals).
- Blanchard, O., Leandro, A., & Zettelmeyer, J. (2021). Redesigning EU fiscal rules: from rules to standards. Economic Policy, 36(106), 195–236.
- Bonam, D., de Haan, J., & Soederhuizen, B. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy at the effective lower bound. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 26(1), 149–185.
- Buti, M., & Giudice, G. (2002). Maastricht’s fiscal rules at ten: an assessment. Journal of Common Market Studies, 40(5), 823–848.
- Caldara, D., & Kamps, C. (2017). The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers. Review of Economic Studies, 84(3), 1015–1040.
- Canzeroni, M., Collard, F., Dellas, H., & Diba, B. (2016). Fiscal multipliers in recessions. Economic Journal, 126(590), 75–108.
- Carnot, N., & de Castro, F. (2015). The discretionary fiscal effort: an assessment of fiscal policy and its output effect. European Economy – Economic Papers, 543.
- Darvas, Z., Welslau, L., & Zettelmeyer, J. (2023). A quantitative evaluation of the European Commission’s fiscal governance proposal. Bruegel Working Paper, 16/2023.
- Darvas, Z., Welslau, L., & Zettelmeyer, J. (2024). The implications of the European Union’s new fiscal rules. Bruegel Policy Brief.
- DeLong, B., & Summers, L. (2012). Fiscal policy in a depressed economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 43(1), 233–274.
- European Commission. (2016). Towards a positive fiscal stance for the euro area, Communication from the Commission, COM(2016) 727 final.
- European Commission. (2022). Fiscal sustainability report 2021. European Economy – Institutional Paper, 171.
- European Commission. (2024a). Debt Sustainability Monitor 2023. Institutional Paper, 271.
- European Commission. (2024b). 2024 Ageing Report, forthcoming.
- Fatas, A. (2019). Fiscal policy, potential output, and the shifting goal-posts. IMF Economic Review, 67(3), 684–702.
- Gechert, S. (2015). What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 67(3), 553–580.
- Gechert, S., Hughes Hallett, A., & Rannenberg, A. (2016). Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Eurozone consolidation. Applied Economics Letters, 23(16), 1138–1140.
- Gechert, S., & Rannenberg, A. (2018). Which fiscal multipliers are regime-dependent? A meta-regression analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), 1160–1182.
- Goujard, A. (2017). Cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations. Fiscal Studies, 38(2), 219–267.
- Guzman, M. (2016). Definitional issues in the IMF debt sustainability analysis framework: a proposal. CIGI Policy Brief, 77.
- Heimberger, P. (2017). Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area? Review of Keynesian Economics, 5(3), 539–558.
- Heimberger, P. (2023). Debt sustainability analysis as an anchor in EU fiscal rules: an assessment of the European Commission’s reform orientations, in-depth analysis requested by the ECON committee of the European Parliament.
- Heimberger, P., Huber, J., & Kapeller, J. (2020). The power of economic models: The case of the EU’s fiscal regulation framework. Socio-Economic Review, 18(2), 337–366.
- Iltzetzki, E., Mendoza, E., & Vegh, C. (2013). How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254.
- Ilori, A. E., Paez-Farrell, J., & Thoenissen, C. (2022). Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers. European Economic Review, 141(1), 103969.
- in ‘t Veld, J. (2013). Fiscal consolidations and spillovers in the euro area periphery and core. European Economy – Economic Papers, 506.
- Jarocinski, M., & Lenza, M. (2018). An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(6), 1189–1224.
- Jorda, O., & Taylor, A. (2016). The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy. Economic Journal, 126(590), 219–255.
- Karras, G. (2012). Trade openness and the effectiveness of fiscal policy: some empirical evidence. International Review of Economics, 59(3), 303–313.
- Leeper, E., Traum, N., & Walker, T. (2017). Clearing up the fiscal multiplier morass. American Economic Review, 107(8), 2409–2454.
- Mc Morrow, K., Roeger, W., & Vandermeulen, V. (2017). Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods & their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations. European Economy Discussion Paper, 070.
- McKay, A., Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2016). The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited. American Economic Review, 106(10), 3133–3158.
- Paetz, C., & Watzka, S. (2024). The new fiscal rules: another round of austerity for Europe? IMK Policy Brief, No. 176.
- Poghosyan, T. (2020). Cross-country spillovers of fiscal consolidations in the euro area. International Finance, 23(1), 18–46.
- Ramey, V. (2019). Ten years after the financial crisis: what have we learned from the renaissance in fiscal research? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 89–114.
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. Regulation EU (2024) of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2024 on the effective coordination of economic policies and on multilateral budgetary surveillance and repealing Council Regulation (EC) No. 1466/97.
- Welslau, L. (2024). EU-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis (Replication of the European Commission’s DSA in Python). https://github.com/lennardwelslau/eu-debt-sustainability-analysis/ [last version based on the July 2024 update]
- Woodford, M. (2011). Simple analytics of the government spending multiplier. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(1), 1–35.
- Wyplosz, C. (2011). Debt sustainability assessments: mission impossible. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2(3), 1–37.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2024-0055 | Journal eISSN: 1613-964X
Language: English
Page range: 276 - 283
Published on: Oct 17, 2024
Published by: ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year
Related subjects:
© 2024 Philipp Heimberger, Lennard Welslau, Bernhard Schütz, Sebastian Gechert, Dario Guarascio, Francesco Zezza, published by ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.