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Forecasting the Profitability of the Textile Sector in Emerging European Countries Using Artificial Neural Networks Cover

Forecasting the Profitability of the Textile Sector in Emerging European Countries Using Artificial Neural Networks

Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe
Volume 32 (2024): Issue 5 (October 2024)
By: ,   and    
Open Access
|Oct 2024
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

Table 1.

Evolution of representative indicators for the financial performance of public textile companies in emerging European countries, 2012–2022

YearAverage EBITDA MarginAverage Operating MarginAverage Pretax ROAAverage Pretax ROE
20125.29%0.19%0.78%2.58%
20139.96%5.45%1.65%6.66%
201410.79%7.20%4.28%14.26%
20159.91%6.14%3.21%14.44%
20168.30%4.47%3.56%12.02%
201710.75%6.42%4.23%18.25%
201817.16%8.46%3.93%16.00%
20198.04%4.03%2.53%3.57%
202014.37%4.62%1.15%3.11%
202113.32%2.75%6.13%15.70%
202217.69%13.18%9.62%23.86%

[i] Source: own compilation based on data from Refinitiv, accessed on the 9th of September 2023

Table 2.

Median values of representative economic performance indicators by textile industry specialties in emerging European countries in 2022

SpecialtiesEBITDA Margin-Industry MedianOperating Margin-Industry MedianPretax ROA-Industry MedianPretax ROE-Industry Median
clothing manufacturers16.4%11.8%24.6%34.2%
production of coated fabrics, ecological leather, and other textiles22.6%16.9%11.5%20.6%
production of polyester staple fiber, filament yarn and polymer23.6%17%11.5%20.6%
production of apparel and accessories12.4%8.2%9.3%18.5%
production of individual protective equipment, combat clothing, camouflage and more10.5%7.6%2.9%7.6%
production of cotton fabrics and dyed yarn6.0%4.5%2.9%13.4%
production of cotton yarns, carpets and rugs12.3%10.9%8.6%24.5%

[i] Source: own compilation based on data from Refinitiv, accessed on the 9th of September 2023

Table 3.

Forecasts for the evolution of representative economic indicators for the textile industry in emerging European countries

Year202320242025
Average EBITDA Margin16.85%16.17%18.77%
Average Operating Margin6.78%6.59%6.62%
Average Pretax ROA7.68%8.82%9.77%
Average Pretax ROE15.80%15.92%14.51%

[i] Source: own compilation based on GMDH Shell Predictions

Table 4.

Accuracy of forecasting models

Mean absolute errorRoot mean square error
Average EBITDA Margin0.02110.0266
Average Operating Margin0.04020.0280
Average Pretax ROA0.01690.0204
Average Pretax ROE0.05170.0622

[i] Source: own compilation based on GMDH Shell Predictions

Fig. 1.

Trends in pretax ROA and GDP per capita growth (annual %) in emerging European countries

Source: own compilation based on data from Refinitiv and World Bank [36]

Fig. 2.

Public companies' pretax ROA forecasting in the textile industry in emerging European countries

Table 5.

Results of the analysis of the correlation between public companies’ pretax ROA in the textile industry and GDP per capita growth

Mean absolute errorRoot mean square errorCoefficient of determination (R2)CorrelationFunction of regression
Bulgaria0.016410.01960.60300.7982Pretax ROA = 0.0458 +GDP per capita growth × 0.0013
Estonia0.01540.01860.51440,7172Pretax ROA = 0.0603 − GDP per capita growth × 0.0084
Lithuania0.04200.04980.47770.7135Pretax ROA = 0.1331 − GDP per capita growth × 0.0259
Poland0.01550.01780.45420.7204Pretax ROA = 0.0114 + GDP per capita growth × 1.0351
Romania0.02660.03310.56350.8617Pretax ROA = −0.3828+ GDP per capita growth × 1.9529
Russia0.02220.02770.67960.8476Pretax ROA = −0.092 + GDP per capita growth × 1.6186
Serbia0.01460.01660.71680.8638Pretax ROA = 0.0265 + GDP per capita growth × 0.7795
Turkey0.02300.02790.67590.8208Pretax ROA = −0.0129+ GDP per capita growth × 0.0161

[i] Source: own compilation based on GMDH Shell Predictions

Company NameCountry of domicileRIC codes
1SASA Polyester Sanayi ASTurkeySASA.IS
2Aksa Akrilik Kimya Sanayii ASTurkeyAKSA.IS
3Vakko Tekstil ve Hazir Giyim Sanayi Isletmeleri ASTurkeyVAKKO.IS
4Bossa Ticaret ve Sanayi Isletmeleri TASTurkeyBOSSA.IS
5Ral Yatirim Holding ASTurkeyRALYH.IS
6Yunsa Yunlu Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyYUNSA.IS
7Desa Deri Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyDESA.IS
8Sanko Pazarlama Ithalat Ihracat ASTurkeySANKO.IS
9Menderes Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyMNDRS.IS
10Akin Tekstil ASTurkeyATEKS.IS
11Sonmez Pamuklu Sanayii ASTurkeySNPAM.IS
12Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi ASTurkeyARSAN.IS
13Bilici Yatirim Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyBLCYT.IS
14Luks Kadife Ticaret ve Sanayi ASTurkeyLUKSK.IS
15Dagi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyDAGI.IS
16Soktas Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeySKTAS.IS
17Karsu Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyKRTEK.IS
18Birko Birlesik Koyunlulular Mensucat Ticaret ve Sanayi ASTurkeyBRKO.IS
19Hateks Hatay Tekstil Isletmeleri ASTurkeyHATEK.IS
20Rodrigo Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyRODRG.IS
21Pergamon Status Dis Ticaret ASTurkeyPSDTC.IS
22Birlik Mensucat Ticaret ve Sanayi Isletmesi ASTurkeyBRMEN.IS
23Diriteks Dirilis Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret ASTurkeyDIRIT.IS
24Dunav ad GrockaSerbiaDNVG.BEL
25Komiteks AORussiaKMTXI.RTS
26Polet Ivanovskiy Parashyutnyi Zavod AORussiaPIPZI.RTS
27Braiconf SARomaniaBRCR.BX
28Confectii Vaslui SARomaniaCOVB.BX
29VRG SAPolandVRGP.WA
30Wittchen SAPolandWTN.WA
31Lubawa SAPolandLBW.WA
32Novita SAPolandNVT.WA
33CDRL SAPolandCDLP.WA
34Wojas SAPolandWOJ.WA
35Protektor SAPolandPRTE.WA
36Sanwil Holding SAPolandSNW.WA
37Solar Company SAPolandSOLP.WA
38Redan SAPolandRDNP.WA
39Utenos Trikotazas ABLithuaniaUTR1L.VL
40Linas ABLithuaniaLNS1L.VL
41Silvano Fashion Group ASEstoniaSFG1T.TL
42Tekstilpromet ddCroatiaTKPR.ZA
43Varteks ddCroatiaVART.ZA
44Mak ADBulgariaMAK.BB
45Katex ADBulgariaKTEX.BB
46Mizia 96 ADBulgariaMIZA.BB
47Velbazhd ADBulgariaVELB.BB
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ftee-2024-0035 | Journal eISSN: 2300-7354 | Journal ISSN: 1230-3666
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Language: English
Page range: 39 - 48
Published on: Oct 30, 2024
Published by: Łukasiewicz Research Network-Łódź Institute of Technology
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: Volume open
Keywords:
emerging European countries,
listed companies,
performance indicators,
textile industry
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Business management,
Business informatics,
Process management,
Industrial chemistry,
Cellulose, paper and textiles,
Polymer science and technology,
Materials sciences,
Biomaterials and natural materials

© 2024 Daniela Pîrvu, Maria-Daniela Bondoc, Luiza Mădălina Apostol, published by Łukasiewicz Research Network-Łódź Institute of Technology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Volume 32 (2024): Issue 5 (October 2024)
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