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The Equity Risk Premium in Australia (1900-2014) Cover

The Equity Risk Premium in Australia (1900-2014)

Open Access
|Mar 2024

Figures & Tables

Figure 1:

Components of the expected return for stocks, bonds and bills
Source: Ibbotson (2011), Ibbotson and Siegel (1988). Note that the first three terms (inflation, real risk-free rate and bond horizon premium) are typically combined into the long-term yield of a riskless bond because this yield is directly observable in the marketplace (Ibbotson, 2011).
Components of the expected return for stocks, bonds and bills Source: Ibbotson (2011), Ibbotson and Siegel (1988). Note that the first three terms (inflation, real risk-free rate and bond horizon premium) are typically combined into the long-term yield of a riskless bond because this yield is directly observable in the marketplace (Ibbotson, 2011).

Figure 2:

Real Annualised Equity Returns in Local Currency and US Dollars, 1900-2014
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Real Annualised Equity Returns in Local Currency and US Dollars, 1900-2014 Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 3:

Real Annualised Returns on Equities, Bonds and Bills, All Countries, 1900-2014 (in US Dollars)
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Real Annualised Returns on Equities, Bonds and Bills, All Countries, 1900-2014 (in US Dollars) Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 4:

Cumulative Returns on Australian Equities, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 1900-2014 (1900 = $1; log scale)
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Cumulative Returns on Australian Equities, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 1900-2014 (1900 = $1; log scale) Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 5:

Realised Australian Equity Risk Premium – Average Annual Rate of Return, by decades (1900-2010)
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Realised Australian Equity Risk Premium – Average Annual Rate of Return, by decades (1900-2010) Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 6:

Rolling 20 year annualised ERPs, 1900-2014
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Rolling 20 year annualised ERPs, 1900-2014 Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 7:

Rolling 20 year components of annualised stock returns, 1900-2014
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
Rolling 20 year components of annualised stock returns, 1900-2014 Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 8:

ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) around the historical mean of 5.6% p.a.
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) around the historical mean of 5.6% p.a. Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 9:

ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) versus the historical mean of 5.6% p.a.
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) versus the historical mean of 5.6% p.a. Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Figure 10:

ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) – Full sample period
Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations
ERP to Bonds (20 year rolling CARR) – Full sample period Source: Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2015); Authors’ own calculations

Worldwide Equity Risk Premium Relative to Bonds, 1900-2014 (local currency returns)

Country / RegionGeometric Mean (%)Arithmetic Mean (%)Standard Deviation (%)Standard Error (%)Minimum Return (%)Year of MinimumMaximum Return (%)Year of Maximum
Australia5.67.51.920.0-53.4200866.31980
Belgium2.34.42.021.1-53.8200880.11940
Canada3.55.11.718.2-40.7200848.61950
Denmark2.03.61.717.9-54.3200874.91972
Finland5.18.72.830.1-55.42008173.11999
France3.05.32.122.8-49.2200884.31946
Germany4.98.42.728.6-51.52008116.61949
Ireland2.64.51.819.6-66.9200883.21972
Italy3.16.52.729.5-48.12008152.21946
Japan5.19.13.032.6-45.22008193.01948
Netherlands3.25.62.122.3-56.42008107.61940
New Zealand3.95.51.717.9-59.7198772.71983
Norway2.35.32.627.7-57.82008192.11979
South Africa5.47.11.819.6-36.1200870.91979
Spain1.93.91.920.7-43.7200869.11986
Sweden3.05.32.021.5-49.5200884.31999
Switzerland2.13.61.617.5-41.3200851.91985
United Kingdom3.75.01.617.3-38.4200880.81975
United States4.46.51.920.7-50.1200857.21933
Europe3.14.41.516.1-48.2200853.61923
World (ex-US)2.83.91.414.7-48.1200835.81999
World3.24.51.415.5-48.2200837.51958

Real (inflation-adjusted) equity returns in all countries, 1900-2014 (local currency returns)

Country / RegionGeometric Mean (%)Arithmetic Mean (%)Standard Deviation (%)Standard Error (%)Minimum Return (%)Year of MinimumMaximum Return (%)Year of Maximum
Australia7.38.918.01.7-42.5200851.51983
Belgium2.75.423.82.2-48.92008105.11919
Canada5.87.117.01.6-33.8200855.21933
Denmark5.37.220.81.9-49.22008107.81983
Finland5.49.330.12.8-60.81918161.71999
France3.25.723.22.2-41.5200866.11954
Germany3.28.231.93.0-90.81948154.61949
Ireland4.26.823.02.1-65.4200868.41977
Italy1.95.928.72.7-72.91945120.71946
Japan4.18.829.72.8-85.51946121.11952
Netherlands5.07.121.52.0-50.42008101.61940
New Zealand6.17.819.51.8-54.71987105.31983
Norway4.27.227.02.5-53.62008166.91979
South Africa7.49.522.22.1-52.21920102.91933
Spain3.75.922.02.1-43.3197799.41986
Sweden5.88.021.32.0-42.5191867.51999
Switzerland4.56.319.61.8-37.8197459.41922
United Kingdom5.37.119.71.8-57.1197496.71975
United States6.58.520.11.9-37.6193156.31933
Europe4.36.219.91.9-47.5200875.71933
World (ex-US)4.46.219.11.8-44.2200880.51933
World5.26.617.41.6-41.0200868.21933

Worldwide Equity Risk Premium Relative to Bills, 1900-2014 (local currency returns)

Country / RegionGeometric Mean (%)Arithmetic Mean (%)Standard Deviation (%)Standard Error (%)Minimum Return (%)Year of MinimumMaximum Return (%)Year of Maximum
Australia6.68.117.51.6-44.4200849.21983
Belgium3.05.423.92.2-49.72008125.01940
Canada4.25.616.91.6-34.7200849.11933
Denmark3.25.020.51.9-50.3200895.31983
Finland5.99.529.92.8-53.32008159.21999
France6.18.724.22.3-43.1200885.71941
Germany5.99.931.52.9-44.72008131.41949
Ireland3.55.821.32.0-66.3200872.01977
Italy5.79.531.62.9-48.62008150.31946
Japan6.19.327.72.6-48.31920108.61952
Netherlands4.46.522.52.1-51.42008126.71940
New Zealand4.45.918.11.7-58.3198797.31983
Norway3.15.926.12.4-55.02008157.11979
South Africa6.38.421.72.0-33.91920106.21933
Spain3.45.521.62.0-39.3200898.11986
Sweden3.95.920.51.9-40.8200864.61999
Switzerland3.75.318.71.7-37.0197454.81985
United Kingdom4.46.119.71.8-54.61974121.81975
United States5.67.519.61.8-44.1193156.61933
Europe3.45.219.31.8-48.3200876.01933
World (ex-US)3.65.218.61.7-45.1200880.91933
World4.35.717.01.6-41.9200868.61933
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/fprj-2016-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2206-1355 | Journal ISSN: 2206-1347
Language: English
Page range: 80 - 99
Submitted on: Mar 23, 2016
|
Accepted on: Jul 14, 2016
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Published on: Mar 18, 2024
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2024 Robert J Bianchi, Michael E Drew, Adam N Walk, published by Financial Advice Association of Australia
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.