The Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Inflation Rates in Indonesia Under the Inflation Targeting Framework Policy
By: Moh Adenan, Lilis Yuliati, Mirza Irfania and Thomas Soseco
References
- Adenan, M., Haq, M.S., Nasir, M.A., Soseco, T. (2025). The Effects of Macroprudential Policies on the Performance of Conventional Banks in Indonesia. Economics – Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(1). DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2025-0012.
- Adim, A. (2021). Pengaruh Uang Beredar Dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Krus) Terhadap Inflasi (Periode Januari 2015-Desember 2019). Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Darussalam, 2(1), 55–71. Retrieved from https://ejournal.iaida.ac.id/index.php/JESDar/article/download/876/625.
- Amaliyah, F., Aryanto, A. (2022). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Owner: Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi, 6(2), 1342–1349. Retrieved from http://polgan.ac.id/owner/index.php/owner/article/download/737/342.
- Andrianus, F., Niko, A. (2006). Analisa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia periode 1997: 3–2005, 2. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets. Retrieved from https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/download/533/445.
- Anggraeni, D., Dwiputri, I.N. (2022). Variabel-variabel yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 11(2), 119–128. DOI: 10.23960/jep.v11i2.490.
- Argandoña, A. (2016). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP). Encyclopedia of Business Ethics and Society, IESE Business School Working Paper, (1153-E). Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=2900931.
- Arestis, P., Bittes, T.F.H. (2018). Keynesian macroeconomic policy: Theoretical analysis and empirical evidence. Panoeconomicus, 65(1), 1–20.
- Bank Indonesia (2005). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/default.aspx (5.10.2023).
- Bank Indonesia (2022). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/default.aspx (24.11.2023).
- Bank Indonesia (2024a). Data Inflasi. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/data-inflasi.aspx (7.01.2024).
- Bank Indonesia (2024b). BI-Rate. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/indikator/BI-Rate.aspx. (5.02.2024).
- Boediono (2015). Ekonomi Makro: Seri Sinopsis Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi No.2. BPFE-Yogyakarta. Retrieved from https://onesearch.id/Record/IOS3737.SULUT000000000003235.
- Budiasih, B. (2011). Fenomena Fear of Floating Nilai Tukar di Indonesia Periode 1998–2007: Identifikasi, Alasan Ekonomi, dan Implikasinya terhadap Kebijakan Moneter. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 12(1), 2. Retrieved from https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1339&context=jepi.
- Bugis, M., Louhenapessy, D., Siregar, N., Tuasuun, S. (2023). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2012–2021. Public Administration, 4(2), 20. Retrieved from https://stiasaidperintah.e-journal.id/ppj/article/view/172/119.
- Breuer, M.L.E., Guajardo, M.J., Kinda, M.T. (2018). Realizing Indonesia’s economic potential. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.elibrary.imf.org/doc/IMF071/24870-9781484337141/24870-9781484337141/Other_formats/Source_PDF/24870-9781484355954.pdf.
- Cecchetti, S.G., Ehrmann, M. (1999). Does inflation targeting increase output volatility? An international comparison of policymakers’ preferences and outcomes. NBER Working Paper 7426. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7426/w7426.pdf.
- Chowdhury, A., Siregar, H. (2004). Indonesia’s monetary policy dilemma: Constraints of inflation targeting. The Journal of Developing Areas, 137–153. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jda/journl/vol.37year2004issue2pp137-153.html.
- Christianingrum, R., Syafri, R.A. (2019). Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi inflasi inti di Indonesia. Jurnal Budget: Isu dan Masalah Keuangan Negara, 4(2), 18–39. DOI: 10.22122/ jurnalbudget.v4i2.26.
- Cochrane, J.H. (2007). Inflation determination with Taylor rules: A critical review. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=1012165, DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1012165.
- Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., Startz, R. (2008). Macroeconomics. Postbus: Mc Graw Hill Irwin. Retrieved from https://opac.ut.ac.id/detail-opac?id=27860.
- Elvina, M., Purnami, A.A.S., Wulandari, I.G.A.A. (2021). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar (M1) dan Suku Bunga BI (BI Rate) Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 4(2), 47–52. DOI: 10.22225/wedj.4.2.2021.47-52.
- Epstein, L.G., Hynes, J.A. (1983). The rate of time preference and dynamic economic analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 91(4), 611–635. Retrieved from https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/Exotic/1Time/EpsteinHynes%20time%20pref%20JPE%2083.pdf.
- Firdaus, A.S., Reza, R., Piar, C.S. (2022). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Tingkat Suku Bunga serta Pengeluaran Pemerintah terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2014–2021. In Educational Studies: Conference Series (Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 81–87). Retrieved from https://jurnal.fkip.unmul.ac.id/index.php/escs/article/download/1201/799.
- Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485–512. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w4565/w4565.pdf.
- Fitra, H.L. (2020). Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Inflasi DI Asean 3 Yang Telah Menerapkan Kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework Pada 2005. q3-2018. q4 (Doctoral dissertation, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Jember). Retrieved from https://repository.unej.ac.id/bitstream/handle/123456789/101806/Hendar%20Laxitna%20Fitra-130810101117..pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y .
- Galí, J. (2015). Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications. Princeton University Press.
- Ghani, U., Hossain, M.K. (2023). The Role and Importance of Liquidity Preference, Marginal Efficiency of Capital, and Marginal Propensity to Consume in Keynes’s General Theory. International Journal of Science and Business, 20(1), 58–70. Retrieved from https://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/2056.pdf.
- Gokal, V., Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship between inflation and economic growth (Vol. 4). Suva: Economics Department, Reserve Bank of Fiji. Retrieved from https://www.rbf.gov.fj/relationship-between-inflation-and-economic-growth-by-vikesh-gokal-subrina-hanif-economics-group-december-2004.
- Hady, H. (2001). Ekonomi Internasional: Teori dan Kebijakan Keuangan Internasional. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia. Retrieved from https://inlislite.uin-suska.ac.id/opac/detail-opac?id=17782.
- Hagedorn, H. (2017). A Theory of Interest Rates. Retrieved from https://www.th-luebeck.de/fileadmin/media/AustrianEconomics2017/pdf/a_theory_of_interest_rates-positive_theory.pdf.
- Hakim, R. (2016). Meninjau kembali seberapa penting target inflasi Bank Indonesia dalam mengontrol laju inflasi. EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan), 20(1), 53–71. Retrieved from https://ejournal.stiesia.ac.id/ekuitas/article/download/40/37.
- Han, S., Oh, J. (2019). Effectiveness of aid modalities on government financing: With reference to Tanzania. Global Business & Finance Review (GBFR), 24(4), 90–104. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/224438/1/gbfr2019-24-4-090.pdf.
- Hervino, A.D., Insukindro, A.S.H., Utami, S. (2023). Monetary Reaction Function in Indonesia During Inflation Targeting Period. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 15(1). Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/568127690.pdf.
- Indarti, D., Saraswati, B.D., Sasongko, G. (2023). Inflation analysis in Indonesia: A monetary or fiscal phenomenon? Industrija, 51(2), 7–27. Retrieved from https://aseestant.ceon.rs/index.php/industrija/article/download/47518/24429.
- Juhro, S.M., Rummel, O. (2022). Monetary policy framework. In: Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges, and Policy Responses: Handbook of Central Banking Studies (pp. 29–49). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore. Retrieved from https://library.oapen.org/bit-stream/handle/20.500.12657/52868/1/978-981-16-6827-2.pdf#page=44.
- Judd, J.P., Rudebusch, G.D. (1998). Taylor’s Rule and the Fed: 1970–1997. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 3–16. Retrieved from http://glennrudebusch.com/wp-content/uploads/1998_FRBSF-ER_Judd-Rudebusch_Taylors-Rule-and-the-Fed-1970-1997.pdf.
- Karptes, A.A., Viverita, V. (2022). Speed of Adjustment and Leverage Deviation-Cost of Equity Nexus: Evidence from Emerging Markets and Crisis. Global Business & Finance Review, 27(6), 1. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/305872/1/id506.pdf.
- Kohsaka, A. (2015). Monetary policy regime in Indonesia. In: Macro-Financial Linkages in the Pacific Region (pp. 231-260). Routledge. Retrieved from https://publication-bi.org/repec/idn/wpaper/WP172013.pdf.
- Kurniawan, B., Sunarya, S.R., Naofal, F., Sudarjah, G.M. (2021). Indeks Harga Ekspor, Inflasi, Pengangguran Serta Pengaruhnya Terhadap Pendapatan Nasional Indonesia dan Korea. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi, 1(3), 120–130. Retrieved from https://jrie.feb.unpas.ac.id/index.php/jrie/article/download/19/14.
- Kuswanto, H. (2015). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Terhadap Suku Bunga Serta Implikasinya Terhadap Permintaan Deposito Pada Bank Umum Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Akuntansi, 17(29). Retrieved from http://ejurnal.stiedharmaputra-smg.ac.id/index.php/JEMA/article/download/151/130.
- Langi, T.M. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga BI, Jumlah Uang Beredar, dan Tingkat Kurs terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 14(2). Retrieved from https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/jbie/article/download/4184/3713.
- Lee, U. (2010). The Impact of Inflation Targeting Regime on the Relationship between Stock Returns and Inflation: International Evidence. Global Business and Finance Review, 15(1), 40. Retrieved from https://scholarlycommons.pacific.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1226&context=esob-facarticles.
- Lin, J.Y. (2012). From flying geese to leading dragons: New opportunities and strategies for structural transformation in developing countries 1. Global Policy, 3(4), 397–409. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=1871599.
- Lipton, M. (2023). Why poor people stay poor. In Rural development (pp. 66–81). Routledge. Retrieved from https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003431763-5/poor-people-stay-poor-michael-lipton.
- Mankiw, N.G. (2013). Macroeconomics Six Edition. United States: Worth Publisher. Retrieved from https://onesearch.id/Author/Home?author=MANKIW%2C++N.+Gregory.
- Mariati, W., Yuesti, A., Tahu, G.P. (2022). Economic growth based on the keynes theory. International Journal of Sustainability, Education, and Global Creative Economic (ijsegce), 5(2), 61–72. Retrieved from https://journals.segce.com/index.php/IJSEGCE/article/download/204/203.
- Masyhuri, A.K., Widodo, P.R., Rokhimah, G.S. (2008). Penerapan Kebijakan Moneter dalam Kerangka Inflation Targeting di Indonesia. Jakarta: Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) BI. Retrieved from https://portal.fiskal.kemenkeu.go.id/pustaka/index.php?p=show_detail&id=1783&keywords=.
- Mishkin (2017). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. Jakarta: Salemba Empat. Retrieved from https://onesearch.id/Record/IOS2726.slims-37441/TOC.
- Muhson, A. (2003). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang yang Beredar, Tingkat Bunga, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, dan Pendapatan Nasional terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Informasi, 29(1). Retrieved from https://journal.uny.ac.id/index.php/informasi/article/view/6975.
- Murwani, S. (2007). Analisis kebijakan moneter kaitannya dengan penanaman modal asing: Pendekatan Taylor Rule (Doctoral dissertation, Program Pasca Sarjana Universitas Diponegoro). Retrieved from http://eprints.undip.ac.id/18300/1/Sri_muwarni.pdf.
- Nijs, L. (2016). Neoliberalism 2.0: Regulating and financing globalizing markets: A Pigovian approach for 21st century markets. Springer.
- Nguyen, D.Q., Dang, V.D. (2024). Monetary policy and risk of commercial banks in Vietnam. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 11(3), 465–477. Retrieved from https://ieeca.org/journal/index.php/JEECAR/article/download/1544/597.
- Orphanides, A. (2003). Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule. Journal of monetary economics, 50(5), 983–1022. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=436840.
- Pelsa, I., Balina, S. (2022). Development of economic theory – from theories of economic growth and economic development to the paradigm of sustainable development. DIEM: Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting, 7(1), 91–101. Sveučilište u Dubrovniku. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/393858.
- Pham, T.T., Le, P.A. (2023). The global factors driving common inflation in ASEAN. Global Business & Finance Review, 28(4), 90. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bit-stream/10419/305910/1/id547.pdf.
- Pham, T.T.X., Nguyen, T.C., Ho, H.T. (2024). Psychological inflation: Definition and measurement. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 11(2), 218–238. Retrieved from https://ieeca.org/journal/index.php/JEECAR/article/download/1611/580.
- Pratiwi, A., Prasetyia, F. (2012). Determinan Inflasi Indonesia: Analisis Jangka Panjang dan Pendek. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 1(1). Retrieved from https://jimfeb.ub.ac.id/index.php/jimfeb/article/view/195.
- Prijambodo, B. (2016). Evaluasi Implementasi Langkah-Langkah Penguatan Kebijakan Moneter Dengan Sasaran Akhir Kestabilan Harga. Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional. Retrieved from https://jurnal.dpr.go.id/index.php/kajian/article/view/576.
- Pusriadi, T., Darma, D.C. (2018). Penerapan flexible ITF (Inflation Targeting Framework): sinergitas kebijakan moneter Indonesia dengan sasaran kestabilan harga. In Prosiding SNMEB (Seminar Nasional Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis). Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/551426308.pdf.
- Ribaj, A., Mexhuani, F. (2021). The impact of savings on economic growth in a developing country (the case of Kosovo). Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 10, 1–13. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13731-020-00140-6.pdf.
- Rose, A.K. (1988). Is the real interest rate stable? The Journal of Finance, 43(5), 1095–1112. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb03958.x.
- Rycroft, R.S. (ed.) (2017). The American Middle Class: An Economic Encyclopedia of Progress and Poverty. Bloomsbury Publishing USA. Retrieved from https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/american-middle-class-9781610697576.
- Sari, R.R. Yeniwati (2019). Pengaruh Kebijakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) dalam Memoderasi Variabel Moneter Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 1(2), 435–450. DOI: 10.24036/jkep.v1i2.6240.
- Setiawan, A. (2012). Inflation Targeting Framework dan Perubahan Respon Kebijakan Moneter. Jurnal BPPK: Badan Pendidikan dan Pelatihan Keuangan, 5, 65–76. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Arif-Setiawan-24/publication/362888976_INFLATION_TARGETING_FRAMEWORK_DAN_PERUBAHAN_RESPON_KEBIJAKAN_MONETER/links/6305eb4061e4553b95341234/INFLATION-TARGETING-FRAMEWORK-DAN-PERUBAHAN-RESPON-KEBIJAKAN-MONETER.pdf.
- Soseco, T., Hidayah, I., Cahayati, N., Leksono, F.T. (2024). Access to Technology to Increase Food Resilience in Rural Households in Indonesia. Economia agro-alimentare / Food Economy An International Journal on Agricultural and Food Systems. 26(1), Art. 5, 1–27. DOI: 10.3280/ecag2024oa16358.
- Spence, M. (2011). The next convergence: The future of economic growth in a multispeed world. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Retrieved from https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/media/series/39/20110516-the-next-convergence-the-future-of-economic-growth-in-a-multispeed-world.
- Sugema, I., Bakhtiar, T. (2010). Inflation targeting in Indonesia: Trade-off and strategy. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 26, 33–43. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Toni-Bakhtiar/publication/297479222_Inflation_targeting_in_Indonesia_Trade-off_and_strategy/links/575e2f9d08aed884621671db/Inflation-targeting-in-Indonesia-Trade-off-and-strategy.pdf .
- Sugema, I. (2012). Krisis keuangan global 2008–2009 dan implikasinya pada perekonomian Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia, 17(3), 145–152. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/295533983.pdf.
- Supartoyo, Y.H., Tatuh, J., Sendouw, R.H. (2013). The economic growth and the regional characteristics: the case of Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 16(1), 3–18. Retrieved from https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1240&context=bmeb.
- Susmiati, S., Giri, N.P.R., Senimantara, N. (2021). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Kurs) Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2011–2018. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 4(2), 68–74. DOI: 10.22225/wedj.4.2.2021.68-74.
- Tulcanaza Prieto, A.B., Lee, Y.H. (2019). Determinants of stock market performance: VAR and VECM designs in Korea and Japan. Global Business & Finance Review (GBFR), 24(4), 24–44. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/224434/1/gbfr2019-24-4-024.pdf.
- Van Loo, R. (2022). Inflation, market failures, and algorithms. S. Cal. L. Rev., 96, 825.
- Warjiyo, P. (2017). Mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia (Vol. 11). Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan (PPSK) Bank Indonesia. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/download/65000787/11._BSK_11_Mekanisme_transmisi_kebijakan_moneter_di_Indonesia.pdf.
- Warjiyo, P., Juhro, S.M. (2019). Inflation Targeting Framework: Implementation in Indonesia. In: Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice (pp. 261–288). Emerald Publishing Limited. Retrieved from https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/978-1-78973-751-620191013/full/html.
- Widiarti, A.W., Siregar, H., Andati, T. (2015). The determinants of bank’s efficiency in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 18(2), 129–156. Retrieved from https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1182&context=bmeb.
- Williamson, J. (2009). Exchange rate economics. Open Economies Review, 20, 123–146. Retrieved from https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11079-008-9091-7.pdf.
- World Bank (2024a). Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) – Indonesia. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?locations=ID.
- World Bank (2024b). GDP (constant 2015 US$) – Indonesia. Retrieved from https://data.world-bank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=ID
- Yanti, Y.W.T.F., Soebagiyo, D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh JUB, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2005–2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(2), 265–277. Retrieved from https://journal.stiem.ac.id/index.php/jurep/article/download/1256/583.
- Yulianto, D.T. (2011). Analisis Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Tingkat Suku Bunga SBI terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 1984–2009 (Doctoral dissertation, UAJY). Retrieved from http://e-journal.uajy.ac.id/2582/3/2EP13267.pdf.
Language: English
Page range: 1 - 27
Submitted on: Jan 10, 2025
Accepted on: Apr 12, 2026
Published on: Jun 29, 2026
Published by: University of Szczecin
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Related subjects:
© 2026 Moh Adenan, Lilis Yuliati, Mirza Irfania, Thomas Soseco, published by University of Szczecin
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.