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Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria Cover

Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria

Open Access
|Aug 2019

Abstract

Research background: Poverty, unemployment, literacy and per capita income are intertwined. However, there seems to be a disconnect between literacy and good living in Nigeria.

Purpose: This study investigated the dynamic relationship between poverty, unemployment, literacy and per capita income in Nigeria by examining the impact, shocks and responses among these identified variables.

Research methodology: The secondary data on poverty, unemployment and literacy rates were extracted from the National Bureau of Statistics and per capita income was extracted from the World Bank Annual Report. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model of lag order (4) was adopted for the study.

Results: The results revealed that poverty rate is an increasing function of unemployment rate and literacy rate and a reducing function of per capita income. The results further showed that dynamics of poverty is affected by shocks in unemployment rate, literacy rate and per capita income.

Novelty: Therefore, the study concluded that literacy rate fails as a vital tool for poverty reduction and that the high rate of unemployment results in chronic poverty. The application of VAR to untangle the interrelationship among the variables, without doubt, adds to the literature on the uses of the VAR model.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0006 | Journal eISSN: 1898-0198 | Journal ISSN: 1730-4237
Language: English
Page range: 73 - 88
Submitted on: Mar 24, 2018
Accepted on: Apr 20, 2019
Published on: Aug 6, 2019
Published by: University of Szczecin
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2019 Adefemi Alamu Obalade, Ayooluwade Ebiwonjumi, Anthony Olugbenga Adaramola, published by University of Szczecin
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.