The results of estimating the narrow money supply and its impact on the product of the private sector for the period 1990–2019 (Source: Author calculations)
| Dependent Variable: LOG (RGDP (−1)) | ||||
| Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) | ||||
| Date: 08/27/21 Time: 16:55 | ||||
| Sample (adjusted): 1992–2019 | ||||
| Included observations: 28 after adjustments | ||||
| Co-integrating equation deterministic: C @TREND | ||||
| Long-run covariance estimate (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 3.0000) | ||||
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
| LOG (RM1(−1)) | 0.163907 | 0.051114 | 3.206691 | 0.0107 |
| LOG (RI (−1)) | −0.063862 | 0.024318 | −2.626062 | 0.0275 |
| LRS (−1) | 0.001379 | 0.006432 | 0.214375 | 0.8350 |
| C | 6.919875 | 0.424254 | 16.31067 | 0.0000 |
| @TREND | 0.041141 | 0.002861 | 14.38172 | 0.0000 |
| R-squared | 0.983108 | Mean dependent var | 8.440703 | |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.975601 | S.D. dependent var | 0.222873 | |
| S.E. of regression | 0.034813 | Sum squared resid | 0.010908 | |
| Durbin-Watson stat | 2.002496 | Long-run variance | 0.000560 | |
Unit-root test results for all variables in logarithmic form (Source: Author calculations)
| Series | Level I (0) | First difference I (1) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob.* | ADF(1) | Prob.* | ADF(0) | |
| RM1 | −1.061977 | 0.9014 | −4.154914 | 0.0281 |
| RM2 | −0.454775 | 0.9730 | −5.336574 | 0.0076 |
| RI | −1.777415 | 0.6643 | −5.279076 | 0.0048 |
| RS | −3.196090 | 0.1222 | −4.128478 | 0.0347 |
| RGDP | 1.782549 | 0.9999 | −3.903325 | 0.0284 |
The co-integration test of the product significance and narrow money supply (Source: Author calculations)
| Date: 08/27/21 Time: 16:10 | ||
| Sample (adjusted): 1992–2021 | ||
| Included observations: 28 after adjustments | ||
| Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend | ||
| Series: RGDP RM1 RS RI | ||
| Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 | ||
| Unrestricted Co-integration Rank test (Trace) | ||
| Hypothesized No. of CE(s) | Eigenvalue | Trace Statistic |
| None* | 0.988578 | 100.7746 |
| At most 1* | 0.805223 | 38.16362 |
| At most 2 | 0.458768 | 15.26105 |
| At most 3 | 0.378841 | 6.666354 |
The results of estimating the expanded money supply and its impact on the product of the private sector for the period 1990–2019 (Source: Author calculations)
| Dependent Variable: LOG (RGDP (−1)) | ||||
| Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) | ||||
| Date: 04/27/13 Time: 16:50 | ||||
| Sample (adjusted): 1994–2007 | ||||
| Included observations: 28 after adjustments | ||||
| Co-integrating equation deterministic: C @TREND | ||||
| Long-run covariance estimate (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed bandwidth = 3.0000) | ||||
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
| LOG (RM2(−1)) | 0.476792 | 0.098343 | 4.848279 | 0.0009 |
| LOG (RI (−1)) | −0.068219 | 0.017718 | −3.850202 | 0.0039 |
| LRS (−1) | 0.005757 | 0.005222 | 1.102459 | 0.2989 |
| C | 6.256834 | 0.418663 | 14.94479 | 0.0000 |
| @TREND | 0.021296 | 0.005508 | 3.866342 | 0.0038 |
| R-squared | 0.987006 | Mean dependent var | 8.440703 | |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.981230 | S.D. dependent var | 0.222873 | |
| S.E. of regression | 0.030534 | Sum squared resid | 0.008391 | |
| Durbin-Watson stat | 2.119070 | Long-run variance | 0.000363 | |
The product and expanded money supply co-integration test (Source: Author calculations)
| Date: 08/27/21 Time: 16:17 | ||||
| Sample (adjusted): 1994–2021 | ||||
| Included observations: 28 after adjustments | ||||
| Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend | ||||
| Series: RGDP RM2 RS RI | ||||
| Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 | ||||
| Unrestricted Co-integration Rank test (Trace) | ||||
| Hypothesized No. of CE(s) | Eigenvalue | Trace Statistic | 0.05 Critical Value | Prob.** |
| None * | 0.986910 | 105.5298 | 47.85613 | 0.0000 |
| At most 1 * | 0.797305 | 44.82701 | 29.79707 | 0.0005 |
| At most 2 * | 0.692529 | 22.48226 | 15.49471 | 0.0038 |
| At most 3 * | 0.347210 | 5.970999 | 3.841466 | 0.0145 |
The results of Grainger causality test for the variables of GDP significance and expanded money supply (Source: Author calculations)
| Pairwise Granger Causality tests | |||
| Date: 08/27/21 Time: 15:57 | |||
| Sample: 1990–2019 | |||
| Lags: 2 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
| RM2 does not Granger Cause RGDP | 28 | 4.29357 | 0.0491 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RM2 | 1.08341 | 0.3788 | |
| RS does not Granger Cause RGDP | 28 | 3.22124 | 0.0881 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RS | 6.28570 | 0.0196 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RGDP | 28 | 0.65219 | 0.5439 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RI | 2.67863 | 0.1223 | |
| RS does not Granger Cause RM2 | 28 | 0.08400 | 0.9201 |
| RM2 does not Granger Cause RS | 4.99296 | 0.0348 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RM2 | 28 | 0.30317 | 0.7457 |
| RM2 does not Granger Cause RI | 4.25087 | 0.0501 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RS | 28 | 0.17800 | 0.8398 |
| RS does not Granger Cause RI | 0.75382 | 0.4981 | |
Results of Grainger's causality test for variables of the GDP significance and narrow money supply (Source: Author calculations)
| Pairwise Granger Causality tests | |||
| Date: 07/27/21 Time: 15:45 | |||
| Sample: 1990–2019 | |||
| Lags: 2 | |||
| Null hypothesis | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
| RM1 does not Granger Cause RGDP | 14 | 3.11350 | 0.0938 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RM1 | 4.21957 | 0.0510 | |
| RS does not Granger Cause RGDP | 14 | 3.22124 | 0.0881 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RS | 6.28570 | 0.0196 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RGDP | 14 | 0.65219 | 0.5439 |
| RGDP does not Granger Cause RI | 2.67863 | 0.1223 | |
| RS does not Granger Cause RM1 | 14 | 1.03800 | 0.3930 |
| RM1 does not Granger Cause RS | 0.83248 | 0.4659 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RM1 | 14 | 0.79127 | 0.4824 |
| RM1 does not Granger Cause RI | 5.47108 | 0.0279 | |
| RI does not Granger Cause RS | 14 | 0.17800 | 0.8398 |
| RS does not Granger Cause RI | 0.75382 | 0.4981 | |