Sense of Local Safety and the Social Potential of Rural Residents. Evidence from Poland

In the face of demographic change, increasing mobility, institutional transformations, and escalating interstate tensions and conflicts, local communities are exposed to new forms of risk and uncertainty. In this context, perceived safety becomes an important indicator of local resilience. The article aims to identify the dimensions of perceived safety and examine their links to individual characteristics (social capital, local rootedness, civic agency) and the contextual social potential of residents in rural municipalities located in suburban areas. The study is based on a representative survey of adult residents (N = 607), conducted in 2024 in six rural municipalities in the Łódź Metropolitan Area. Factor analysis was used to construct a three-component perceived safety index (social, housing, spatial). Subsequently, two-level Generalised Linear Mixed Models and ordinary least squares regression models were estimated. The analysis shows that the perceived safety is moderate. It is strengthened by trust in municipal authorities, pro-newcomer attitudes, place attachment, readiness for co-decision making, and trust in close ties. Age and trust in entrepreneurs are negatively associated with perceived safety. The inter-municipal variance proves statistically nonsignificant, indicating that individual-level social factors are more important than contextual (municipal) factors for local resilience.