WATER STRESS, AGRICULTURAL DEPENDENCE, AND TECHNOLOGICAL RESPONSES IN THE MENA REGION: EVIDENCE FROM A LONG-RUN PANEL ANALYSIS (1990-2024)

Water scarcity has become one of the most serious structural constraints on development in the Middle East and North Africa, or MENA. Despite substantial investment in supply-side technologies, including groundwater development, irrigation modernization, desalination, and wastewater reuse, regional water stress remains persistently high. This study examines whether these technological responses reduce water stress or whether their effects are offset by agricultural dependence and rebound dynamics. Using a balanced macro panel of ten MENA countries from 1990 to 2024, we estimate several econometric specifications and conduct robustness checks. Agricultural water dependence is consistently associated with greater water stress, whereas the relationship between technology and stress varies across specifications. It is negative in pooled models but positive after controlling for country heterogeneity. Combined with evidence of bidirectional Granger causality, these results suggest that infrastructure expansion often responds to existing scarcity rather than resolving it. Sustainable water security therefore requires not only technological innovation but also institutional reform, demand management, and agricultural transition.