Abstract
This article develops an ecological–economic assessment framework to analyze sustainability trade-offs in regional development in Kazakhstan, focusing on Karaganda and Kyzylorda during 2010–2023. Karaganda, the country’s industrial hub, contributes substantially to GDP but suffers from high CO2 emissions and industrial pollution that negatively affect human development. Kyzylorda, with an agriculture-and energy-based economy, has lower carbon emissions but faces severe water scarcity, soil salinization, and land degradation that threaten food security and demographic stability. The study applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to integrate economic, environmental, and social indicators, using official datasets from the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics, regional environmental reports, and internationally recognized sources. Results demonstrate that in Karaganda, GDP growth and industrial output are strongly correlated with CO2 emissions, which significantly reduce the Human Development Index (HDI). In Kyzylorda, irrigation inefficiencies and resource extraction accelerate land degradation, negatively affecting population growth and fueling rural out-migration from ecologically stressed areas. The findings underscore that sustainability challenges require region-specific but complementary policy responses. For Karaganda, priorities include a gradual shift to clean energy, stricter emission controls, and diversification into circular and digital economies. For Kyzylorda, urgent measures are water conservation, irrigation reform, and sustainable agricultural practices to restore ecological balance and protect rural livelihoods. By aligning its framework with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 8, 11, and 13, this study contributes to international debates on sustainable pathways for resource-dependent economies and provides actionable insights for policymakers seeking to balance economic growth, environmental protection, and social equity.