Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Beyond Sunlight: How Co2 Emissions, Coal Lock-in, and Global Finance Shape Australia’s Solar Energy Consumption - An ARDL Analysis with Robustness Checks Cover

Beyond Sunlight: How Co2 Emissions, Coal Lock-in, and Global Finance Shape Australia’s Solar Energy Consumption - An ARDL Analysis with Robustness Checks

By: Soumaya Hechmi  
Open Access
|Dec 2025

References

  1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2022-23). Regional population. ABS. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2022-23
  2. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). (2024). 2024 integrated system plan. https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2024/2024-integrated-system-plan-isp.pdf?la=en
  3. Australian Government. (2023). Critical Minerals Strategy 2023–2030. https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/critical-minerals-strategy-2023-2030
  4. Australian Government Department of the Treasury. (2023). Sustainable finance strategy. https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/c2023-456756.pdf
  5. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 37(2), 149-163.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  6. Burke, M. J., & Stephens, J. C. (2018). Political power and renewable energy futures: A critical review. Energy research & social science, 35, 78-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.018
  7. Burns, K., & Mountain, B. (2021). Do households respond to time-of-use tariffs? Evidence from Australia. Energy Economics, 95, 105070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105070
  8. Carley, S., Davies, L. L., Spence, D. B., & Zirogiannis, N. (2018). Empirical evaluation of the stringency and design of renewable portfolio standards. Nature Energy, 3(9), 754-763. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0202-4
  9. Clean Energy Council. (2022). Clean energy Australia report 2022. https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/clean-energy-australia/clean-energy-australia-report-2022.pdf
  10. Clean Energy Council. (2023). Clean Energy Australia Report 2023. https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/cec/media/background/resources/clean-energy-australia-report-2023_1.pdf
  11. Darvishi, H., & Varedi, S. (2018). Assessment of the contemporaneous impacts of GDP and renewable energy consumption, applying the dynamic panel data: Evidence from developed countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(1), 159-166. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/5995
  12. Derouez, F. (2025). Technological Advancements and Economic Growth as Key Drivers of Renewable Energy Production in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL and VECM Analysis. Energies, 18(9), 2177. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18092177
  13. Garnaut, R. (2021). Reset: Restoring Australia after the pandemic recession. Black Inc. https://books.google.com.sa/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=93nnDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT9&dq=Reset:+Restoring+Australia+after+the+pandemic+recession.+Black+Inc.&ots=auIw306V2r&sig=oNBpURIOcqpjfI6rkIDcw-omkD8&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
  14. Graham, P., Hayward, J., Foster, J., & Havas, L. (2022). GenCost 2021-22: final report. Retrieved from Australia: https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/News/2022/July/GenCost-2022
  15. Hechmi, S. (2025). Renewable energy dynamics in Southeast Asia: Analyzing the impact of CO2 emissions, geopolitical risk, tourism, and GDP through FMOLS and CCR estimation approach. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(2), 4278–4288. https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v8i2.6279
  16. Hunady, J., Demeova, E., Chylakova, V. (2025). The Role of Digital Skills and Digitalization in Enhancing Labour Productivity in the EU. COLLECTION OF PAPERS NEW ECONOMY, 3(1), 33-45. https://doi.org/10.61432/CPNE0301033h
  17. Idris, A., & Razak, A. R. (2025). Energy transition, green growth and emission on economic growth using spline approach: Evidence from Asia-pasific countries. Economics - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(2), 139–159. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0034
  18. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2024). World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: Achieving the 1.5° C Goal. United Arab Emirates. https://coilink.org/20.500.12592/4n7kctb
  19. Jeon, H. (2022). CO2 emissions, renewable energy and economic growth in the US. The Electricity Journal, 35(7), 107170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2022.107170
  20. Karlilar, S., & Emir, F. (2023). Exploring the role of coal consumption, solar, and wind power generation on ecological footprint: evidence from India using Fourier ADL cointegration test. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(9), 24077-24087. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23910-z
  21. Kilian, L., & Vigfusson, R. J. (2011). Are the responses of the US economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?. Quantitative Economics, 2(3), 419-453. https://doi.org/10.3982/QE99
  22. Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H., & Potter, S. M. (1996). Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of econometrics, 74(1), 119-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(95)01753-4
  23. Li, Z. (2024). Solar Energy Adoption on Local Economic Growth: A Linear Regression Study. Highlights in Business, Economics and Management, 24, 263-271. https://doi.org/10.54097/qzwgh458
  24. Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer Science & Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1
  25. Luo, J., Yang, H., Zhang, L., Liu, H., Wang, Y., & Hao, C. (2024). A comparative study on the combination of life cycle assessment and ecological footprints: solar photovoltaic power generation vs. coal power generation in Ningxia. Frontiers in Energy Research, 12, 1375820. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2024.1375820
  26. Majeed, A., Ahmad, M., Rasheed, M. F., Khan, M. K., Popp, J., & Oláh, J. (2022). The dynamic impact of financial globalization, environmental innovations and energy productivity on renewable energy consumption: evidence from advanced panel techniques. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 894857. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.894857
  27. Nelson, T., Nolan, T., & Gilmore, J. (2025). Effective policy to achieve the Australian Government’s commitment to 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030. Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2024.2442623
  28. Nurgaliuly, A., & Smagulova, S. (2025). Economic assessment of energy security of the regions of Kazakhstan. Economics - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(2), 223–243. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0038
  29. Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 119-143. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679
  30. Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics letters, 58(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0
  31. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  32. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
  33. Rai, V., & Robinson, S. A. (2015). Agent-based modeling of energy technology adoption: Empirical integration of social, behavioral, economic, and environmental factors. Environmental Modelling & Software, 70, 163-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.04.014
  34. Ruslan, R. A. M., Rashid, I. M. A., Shafiai, S., Fianto, B. A., & Yusof, A. M. (2025). The relationship between Islamic microfinancing, energy supply adequacy and performance of agriculture micro-enterprises. ECONOMICS - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 13(2), 55–69. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0030
  35. Saikkonen, P. (1991). Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric theory, 7(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600004217
  36. Serrano-Sanchez, C., Olmeda-Delgado, M., & Petrakopoulou, F. (2019). Exergy and economic evaluation of a hybrid power plant coupling coal with solar energy. Applied Sciences, 9(5), 850. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9050850
  37. Shrimali, G., & Kniefel, J. (2011). Are government policies effective in promoting deployment of renewable electricity resources?. Energy Policy, 39(9), 4726-4741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.055
  38. Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., ... & Malley, J. (2022). Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 10, 9781009157926. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926
  39. Simshauser, P. (2018). On intermittent renewable generation & the stability of Australia’s National Electricity Market. Energy Economics, 72, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.02.006
  40. Singh, S., Bansal, P., & Bhardwaj, N. (2022). A study on nexus between renewable energy and fossil fuel consumption in commercial sectors of United States using wavelet coherence and quantile-on-quantile regression. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 848301. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.848301
  41. Solaymani, S. (2022). CO2 emissions and the transport sector in Malaysia. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9, 774164. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.774164
  42. Steffen, W., Mallon, K., Kompas, T., Dean, A., & Rice, M. (2019). Compound Costs: How climate change is damaging Australia’s economy. Climate Council of Australia. https://www.climate-council.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/costs-of-climate-change-report-v2.pdf
  43. Sun, Z., Zhang, X., & Gao, Y. (2023). The impact of financial development on renewable energy consumption: A multidimensional analysis based on global panel data. International journal of environmental research and public health, 20(4), 3124. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043124
  44. Tudor, C., & Sova, R. (2021). On the impact of GDP per capita, carbon intensity and innovation for renewable energy consumption: worldwide evidence. Energies, 14(19), 6254. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196254
  45. Vardar, S., Demirel, B., & Onay, T. T. (2022). Impacts of coal-fired power plants for energy generation on environment and future implications of energy policy for Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(27), 40302-40318. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19786-8
  46. Vo, D. H., & Vo, A. T. (2021). Renewable energy and population growth for sustainable development in the Southeast Asian countries. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11(1), 30. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-021-00304-6
  47. Wang, X., Xu, Z., Qin, Y., & Skare, M. (2023). The global impact of financial development on renewable energy in a panel structural vector autoregression analysis. Sustainable Development, 31(3), 1364-1383. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2453
  48. Wu, L., & Broadstock, D. C. (2015). Does economic, financial and institutional development matter for renewable energy consumption? Evidence from emerging economies. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 8(1), 20-39. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEPEE.2015.068246
  49. Yang, J., Zhang, W., & Zhang, Z. (2016). Impacts of urbanization on renewable energy consumption in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, 443-451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.158
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0095 | Journal eISSN: 2303-5013 | Journal ISSN: 2303-5005
Language: English
Page range: 257 - 276
Submitted on: Apr 14, 2025
Accepted on: Aug 27, 2025
Published on: Dec 1, 2025
Published by: Oikos Institut d.o.o.
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year

© 2025 Soumaya Hechmi, published by Oikos Institut d.o.o.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.