Abstract
This study evaluated the effectiveness of policies aimed at curbing deforestation in the Amazon biome, specifically focusing on how these policies changed agricultural land-use patterns in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, throughout the 21st century. Utilizing land use and land cover (LULC) maps, we analyzed the transformation of natural forests into agricultural lands over time by comparing pre- and post-policy implementation with a Spatial Durbin Model, recognizing potential spillover effects on neighbouring municipalities. Our research indicates that disincentives such as environmental penalties and land use planning decreased deforestation rates when accompanied by intense monitoring efforts. Brazilian rural credit incentives stimulate farmers to adopt environmental compliance, which has an important role in slowing down deforestation, although the Central-West Constitutional Fund (FCO) resources have limited regional impact. We observed in LULC maps that the major growth of cropland occurs in pasture areas, which in turn is displaced to the Amazon biome frontier and causes new deforestation spots, although this process lost strength after 2008 owing to new institutional path. Ultimately, the research highlights the ongoing challenges of achieving long-term sustainability amidst economic pressures, especially commodity prices, emphasizing the need for innovative policies to promote sustainable agricultural practices.