Fig. 1
Algorithm followed in the method for forecasting the costs of a technical object operation
Fig. 2
Schedule of the performed research analysis
Fig. 3
Structure of costs distribution of a railbus operation adopted for calculations
Fig. 4
Data for the time series analysis covering a given operational cost parameter of railbuses: a) daily mileage of railbuses, b) salaries of conductors per kilometre of the route, c) salaries of train drivers per kilometre of the route, d) diesel consumption per kilometre of the route, and e) purchase price of a litre of diesel
Fig. 5
Distribution of operational cost parameters for test objects: a) daily mileage of railbuses, b) salaries of conductors per kilometre of the route, c) salaries of train drivers per kilometre of the route, d) diesel consumption per kilometre of the route, and e) purchase price of a litre of diesel
Fig. 6
Cumulative operational costs of railbuses in the analysed period presented as the months of exploitation
Tab. 1
Parameters of the operational cost components for time intervals presented as the months of vehicle exploitation
| Parameters of the operational cost components | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K1/2 | K12 | K14 | K22 | K23 | ||
| Stage 4 | Correlation coefficient (r) | −0.22 | −0.07 | 0.06 | 0.18 | −0.25 |
| For ∝= 0,05 | t = −1.59 p = 0.12 p > ∝ | t = −0.51 p = 0.61 p > ∝ | t = 0.45 p = 0.65 p > ∝ | t =1.27 p =0.21 p > ∝ | t = −1.78 p = 0.08 p > ∝ | |
| Accepted hypothesis | H0: ρ = 0 | H0: ρ = 0 | H0: ρ = 0 | H0: ρ = 0 | H0: ρ = 0 | |
| Stage 5 | Type of probability distribution | Normal | Log-normal | Normal | Normal | Normal |
| Distribution matching (φ) | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.88 | |
| E(X) | 367.85 | 1.23 | 2.07 | 4.75 | 0.58 | |
| F(x0,95) | 480.95 | 1.46 | 2.41 | 5.60 | 0.69 | |
| F(x0,05) | 254.76 | 0.02 | 1.72 | 3.91 | 0.47 | |
Tab. 2
Relative errors in measuring operational costs of railbuses
| Railbus number | Last month of the railbus exploitation t | KUt | γt | Mean relative error | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50 | 3379357 | 3340998 | −1.1% | 2.9% |
| 2 | 50 | 3156515 | 3340998 | 5.5% | |
| 3 | 50 | 3416362 | 3340998 | −2.3% | |
| 4 | 19 | 1226472 | 1269579 | 3.4% | |
| 5 | 19 | 1276996 | 1269579 | −0.58% | |
| 6 | 16 | 1140901 | 1069119 | −6.7% | |
| 7 | 13 | 873708 | 868659 | −0.58% | |
| 8 | 12 | 825694 | 801839 | −3.0% |