Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Prior distribution
| Prior distribution | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Description | Distribution | Mean | Std. dev. |
| Production | ||||
| α | Proportion of patient households | Beta | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ψ | Investment adjustment costs | Normal | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| LTV ratios | ||||
| m1 | LTV firms | Beta | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| m2 | LTV impatient households | Beta | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| Calvo parameter | ||||
| θ | Price rigidity | Beta | 0.75 | 0.10 |
| Monetary rule | ||||
| rπ | Inflation weight in monetary rule | Normal | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| rR | Interest rate weight in monetary rule | Normal | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| Persistence of shocks | ||||
| ρu | Cost-push shock persistence | Beta | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ρj | Housing preference shock persistence | Beta | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ρA | Technology shock persistence | Beta | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ρi | Investment shock persistence | Beta | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| Volatility of shocks | ||||
| ρR | Monetary shock | Inv. gamma | 0.10 | inf |
| ρu | Cost-push shock | Inv. gamma | 0.10 | inf |
| ρj | Housing preference shock | Inv. gamma | 0.10 | inf |
| ρA | Technology shock | Inv. gamma | 0.10 | inf |
| ρi | Investment shock | Inv. gamma | 0.10 | inf |
| ρY | Shock depicting other effects in the economy | Inv. gamma | 0.001 | inf |
Data
| Variable | Description | Source | Transformation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y | Real gross domestic product | CZSO | log, Ŷ |
| C | Real consumption | CZSO | log, Ĉ |
| I | Investment | CZSO | log, Î |
| CPI | Consumer Price Index | CZSO | |
| HP | Offer prices of apartments adjusted for inflation | CZSO | |
| R | 3M PRIBOR | CNB | |
Overview of calibrated parameters
| Description | Parameter | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discount factor: patient households | β1 | 0.99 |
| Discount factor: Impatient households | β2 | 0.95 |
| Discount factor: firms | γ | 0.98 |
| Labour supply aversion | η | 1.01 |
| Housing weight | j | 0.1 |
| Capital output ratio | μ | 0.3 |
| Elasticity of output to real estate | υ | 0.05 |
| Depreciation rate of physical capital | δ | 0.05 |
| Retail markup | X | 1.1 |
Posterior distribution
| Posterior distribution | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998:Q1–2017:Q4 | 2006:Q1–2017:Q4 | |||||
| Parameter | Mean | 95 HPDI | Mean | 95% HPDI | ||
| α | 0.3268 | 0.2156 | 0.4327 | 0.4848 | 0.3559 | 0.6160 |
| m1 | 0.4471 | 0.3143 | 0.5821 | 0.8035 | 0.7252 | 0.8829 |
| m2 | 0.7320 | 0.6283 | 0.8368 | 0.5931 | 0.4299 | 0.7597 |
| θ | 0.7495 | 0.5922 | 0.9119 | 0.7485 | 0.5937 | 0.9147 |
| ψ | 0.1067 | 0.0454 | 0.1643 | 0.3191 | 0.2174 | 0.4164 |
| Monetary rule | ||||||
| rπ | 0.5500 | 0.3798 | 0.7190 | 0.6047 | 0.4418 | 0.7643 |
| rR | 0.9355 | 0.9214 | 0.9502 | 0.9203 | 0.8985 | 0.9427 |
| Persistence of shocks | ||||||
| ρu | 0.9547 | 0.9306 | 0.9793 | 0.7527 | 0.6435 | 0.8628 |
| ρj | 0.9028 | 0.8651 | 0.9410 | 0.9354 | 0.8917 | 0.9792 |
| ρA | 0.7565 | 0.6740 | 0.8412 | 0.7396 | 0.6282 | 0.8551 |
| ρi | 0.6463 | 0.5604 | 0.7301 | 0.6043 | 0.5155 | 0.6918 |
| Volatility of shocks | ||||||
| σR | 0.0017 | 0.0014 | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | 0.0015 | 0.0024 |
| σu | 0.0141 | 0.0100 | 0.0181 | 0.0057 | 0.0039 | 0.0076 |
| σj | 0.3348 | 0.2169 | 0.4521 | 0.2166 | 0.0875 | 0.3402 |
| σA | 0.0167 | 0.0137 | 0.0195 | 0.0080 | 0.0045 | 0.0113 |
| σi | 0.0380 | 0.0327 | 0.0431 | 0.0392 | 0.0321 | 0.0463 |
| σY | 0.0010 | 0.0002 | 0.0019 | 0.0225 | 0.0137 | 0.0310 |