Road Transport Safety in Poland and Cost Intensity of National Logistics

The aim of this article is to assess the relationship between road transport safety and the cost intensity of domestic logistics in Poland in the years 2011-2023. The analysis is based on secondary data obtained from the Central Statistical Office. Domestic logistics performance is proxied by a cost intensity indicator defined as the share of total transport costs in gross domestic product (GDP). Road transport safety is measured by the number of road accidents per 100,000 population, while traffic intensity is included as a control variable measured in vehicle-kilometers.

The empirical analysis employs linear regression models estimated using the ordinary least squares method and is complemented by a descriptive analysis of trends in road accidents. Due to the presence of long-term trends and the limited number of observations, the baseline model estimated on levels is supplemented with a robustness check based on year-to-year changes (first-differences).

The results indicate that the relationship between road transport safety and logistics cost intensity depends on the model specification. While no statistically significant relationship is found in the level-based model, the first-difference specification reveals a positive and statistically significant association between changes in road accidents and changes in the share of transport costs in GDP. This suggests that a deterioration in road transport safety leads to higher logistics-related costs at the macroeconomic level. Traffic intensity is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on logistics cost intensity in both model specifications. Overall, the findings indicate that improvements in road transport safety contribute to reducing transport costs and lowering the cost intensity of domestic logistics.