Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between EU Funds and Gross Domestic Product per Capita in the Republic of Croatia

This paper applies descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and simple linear regression to examine the relationship between the utilisation of European Structural and Investment (ESI) Funds and GDP per capita in Croatia from 2015 to 2025. It explains the role of EU funds in Croatia’s economic development and the criteria used to classify fund utilisation. Data were collected from official EU funds portals, the European Commission Cohesion Open Data, and the Croatian National Bank. The analysis combines tabular and graphical presentation with measures of central tendency, dispersion, linear association, and regression modelling. The findings indicate that Croatia gradually increased absorption of ESI funds over the observed period and approached near-complete utilisation by 2025. The correlation coefficient (r = 0.6926) and the simple regression model suggest a positive and statistically significant relationship between ESI funds utilisation and GDP per capita. Nevertheless, the results should be interpreted as an association rather than proof of direct causality, since other macroeconomic factors also influence economic growth. The paper contributes to regional development research by highlighting the importance of administrative capacity, project preparation and effective fund management for Croatia’s continued economic convergence.