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The Predictability of High-Frequency Returns in the Cryptocurrency Markets and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Cover

The Predictability of High-Frequency Returns in the Cryptocurrency Markets and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis

Open Access
|Feb 2025

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

The histograms of the percentage of efficient windowsNote: The headers of distributions refer to the intervals considered.
The histograms of the percentage of efficient windowsNote: The headers of distributions refer to the intervals considered.

Figure 2.

The histograms of the rate of changesNote: The headers of distributions refer to the intervals considered.
The histograms of the rate of changesNote: The headers of distributions refer to the intervals considered.

Figure 3.

The results of the MDH tests over consecutive months for a 30-minute intervalNote: ‘Portmonteau’ stands for the automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation proposed by Escanciano and Lobato (2009). ‘AVR’ is an abbreviation for the wild bootstrapped automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity proposed by Kim (2009). ‘All tests’ refers to both tests together.
The results of the MDH tests over consecutive months for a 30-minute intervalNote: ‘Portmonteau’ stands for the automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation proposed by Escanciano and Lobato (2009). ‘AVR’ is an abbreviation for the wild bootstrapped automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity proposed by Kim (2009). ‘All tests’ refers to both tests together.

Figure 4.

The results of the MDH tests over consecutive months for a 5-minute intervalNote: ‘Portmonteau’ stands for the automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation proposed by Escanciano and Lobato (2009). ‘AVR’ is an abbreviation for the wild bootstrapped automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity proposed by Kim (2009). ‘All tests’ refers to both tests together.
The results of the MDH tests over consecutive months for a 5-minute intervalNote: ‘Portmonteau’ stands for the automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation proposed by Escanciano and Lobato (2009). ‘AVR’ is an abbreviation for the wild bootstrapped automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity proposed by Kim (2009). ‘All tests’ refers to both tests together.

Figure 5.

The results of the MDH tests for the three most efficient and three least efficient cryptocurrencies over consecutive months for a 30-minute intervalNote: The numbers refer to the ranking of efficiency based on the results presented in Table 1. Codes refer to cryptocurrencies in the efficiency ranking: Bitcoin (BTC), Polygon (MATIC), Solana (SOL), Shiba Inu (SHIB), TRON (TRX), and Dogecoin (DOGE).
The results of the MDH tests for the three most efficient and three least efficient cryptocurrencies over consecutive months for a 30-minute intervalNote: The numbers refer to the ranking of efficiency based on the results presented in Table 1. Codes refer to cryptocurrencies in the efficiency ranking: Bitcoin (BTC), Polygon (MATIC), Solana (SOL), Shiba Inu (SHIB), TRON (TRX), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Figure 6.

The results of the MDH tests for three most efficient and three least efficient cryptocurrencies over consecutive months for a 5-minute intervalNote: The numbers refer to the ranking of efficiency based on the results presented in Table 1. Codes refer to cryptocurrencies in the efficiency ranking: Chainlink (LINK), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE).
The results of the MDH tests for three most efficient and three least efficient cryptocurrencies over consecutive months for a 5-minute intervalNote: The numbers refer to the ranking of efficiency based on the results presented in Table 1. Codes refer to cryptocurrencies in the efficiency ranking: Chainlink (LINK), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Correlation coefficients for the percentage of efficient windows and the efficiency change rate

Test/resultCoefficientp-value
IntervalSpearmanKendallSpearmanKendall
1 min0.170.100.590.62
5 min−0.58−0.520.020.01
30 min−0.84−0.720.000.00

Correlation coefficients for the ranks of cryptocurrencies

Test/resultCoefficientp-value
SpearmanInterval1 min5 min30 minInterval1 min5 min30 min
1 min1.00 1 min1.00
5 min0.211.00 5 min0.491.00
30 min−0.79−0.041.0030 min0.000.881.00
KendallInterval1 min5 min30 minInterval1 min5 min30 min
1 min1.00 1 min1.00
5 min0.101.00 5 min0.681.00
30 min−0.590.031.0030 min0.000.921.00

The summary of the results of the MDH tests

Interval1 minute5 minutes30 minutesAll intervals
CryptocurrencyWindows testedEfficient windowsEfficiency change rateWindows testedEfficient windowsEfficiency change rateWindows testedEfficient windowsEfficiency change rateEfficient windowsEfficiency change rate
Polygon 70997%2%97%2%
Avalanche57190%7%69794%3%70995%2%94%4%
Chainlink57183%8%69796%4%70990%5%90%6%
Bitcoin Cash57183%8%69791%5%70995%3%90%5%
Solana57172%12%69795%3%70997%3%89%6%
Cardano57174%9%69793%5%70996%3%89%5%
BNB57187%8%69787%6%70983%5%85%6%
Shiba Inu57183%9%68492%5%68675%7%83%7%
Polkadot 5196%4%68782%7%83%7%
NEAR Protocol57153%8%68493%4%70090%6%80%6%
Ethereum57144%7%69793%5%70995%2%80%5%
Bitcoin57139%9%69789%5%70999%1%78%5%
XRP57123%4%68582%6%70991%5%68%5%
TRON 4163%16%70930%7%32%8%
Toncoin40631%9%16015%3%2522%15%26%8%
Dogecoin3803%2%69724%5%70924%3%20%3%
Average54459%8%57280%5%66379%5%74%5%
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2025-0003 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 34 - 48
Published on: Feb 2, 2025
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2025 Jacek Karasiński, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.