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Cross-Country Differences in Return and Volatility Metrics of World Equity Indices Cover

Cross-Country Differences in Return and Volatility Metrics of World Equity Indices

Open Access
|May 2023

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Daily Fluctuations of the Country IndicesNote. This four-panel figure shows the fluctuations of the prices of equity indices divided into four groups described based on baseline classification and presented in Table 2. For each country, we present the longest time period that was selected for this research.
Daily Fluctuations of the Country IndicesNote. This four-panel figure shows the fluctuations of the prices of equity indices divided into four groups described based on baseline classification and presented in Table 2. For each country, we present the longest time period that was selected for this research.

Figure 2.

First Sample DistributionsNote. R.D, daily return of four groups; R.M, monthly return; STD, annualized standard deviation; DSTD, annualized downside semi-deviation; VaR.H, historical 97.5% value-at-risk; VaR.N, Gaussian 97.5% value-at-risk; ES.H, historical 97.5% expected shortfall; ES.N, Gaussian 97.5% expected shortfall.
First Sample DistributionsNote. R.D, daily return of four groups; R.M, monthly return; STD, annualized standard deviation; DSTD, annualized downside semi-deviation; VaR.H, historical 97.5% value-at-risk; VaR.N, Gaussian 97.5% value-at-risk; ES.H, historical 97.5% expected shortfall; ES.N, Gaussian 97.5% expected shortfall.

Figure 3.

Second Sample DistributionsNote. R.D, daily return of four groups; R.M, monthly return; STD, annualized standard deviation; DSTD, annualized downside semi-deviation; VaR.H, historical 97.5% value-at-risk; VaR.N, Gaussian 97.5% value-at-risk; ES.H, historical 97.5% expected shortfall; ES.N, Gaussian 97.5% expected shortfall.
Second Sample DistributionsNote. R.D, daily return of four groups; R.M, monthly return; STD, annualized standard deviation; DSTD, annualized downside semi-deviation; VaR.H, historical 97.5% value-at-risk; VaR.N, Gaussian 97.5% value-at-risk; ES.H, historical 97.5% expected shortfall; ES.N, Gaussian 97.5% expected shortfall.

Comparison of MSCI and Baseline Classifications with early-developed included in emerging category

Baseline classification, ED in EMSCI classificationDifferences
FrontierBangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, Vietnam, ZimbabweBahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Croatia, Estonia, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lithuania, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Romania, Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, VietnamEgypt, India, Indonesia, emerging in MSCI classification; Ukraine and Zimbabwe, standalone
EmergingArgentina, Bahrain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Oman, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, TurkeyBrazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab EmiratesBahrain, Croatia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Mauritius, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, frontier; Portugal, Spain, developed; Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Bulgaria, Trinidad and Tobago, Lebanon, Jamaica, standalone
DevelopedAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Qatar, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, USAAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USAKorea, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, emerging in MSCI classification
Standalone Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Bulgaria, Jamaica, Lebanon, Malta, Palestine, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Ukraine, ZimbabweWe chose not to use this classification, and instead added early-developed market class.

Results of Baseline Income Categorization

R.DR.MSTDDSTDVaR.HVaR.NES.HES.NMDDUI
Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test p values of H statistic:
First sample0.2010.76700000000
Pairwise Wilcoxon rank sum test p values of U statistic
F_E--00000000
F_ED--0.0770.4790.3060.0770.5150.0960.2650.185
F_D--0.340.2220.4530.3410.5150.3650.2650.185
E_ED--00000000
E_D--00000000
ED_D--0.0080.0440.0780.0160.060.0090.0270.009
Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test p values of H statistic
Second sample0.5240.9100000000
Pairwise Wilcoxon rank sum test p values of U statistic
F_E--0000000.0230.075
F_ED--0.7610.4170.5130.8040.4630.7290.0970.075
F_D--0.2720.0860.2730.1590.1460.4570.0030
E_ED--00000000
E_D--00000000
ED_D--0.2820.4170.5130.1860.4630.5010.0890.033

Results of the Time Period Change

R.DR.MSTDDSTDVaR.HVaR.NES.HES.NMDDUI
Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test p values of H-statistic:
First sample0.6950.94500000000
Pairwise Wilcoxon rank sum test p values of U statistic:
F_E--00000000
F_ED--00.0960.0150.0010.03400.0170.015
F_D--0.2920.9660.5340.4510.7250.2360.830.588
E_ED--0000000.0060.015
E_D--00000000
ED_D--0.0210.0960.0830.020.0770.0270.020.011
Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test p values of H-statistic:
Second sample0.8330.99500000000
Pairwise Wilcoxon rank sum test p values of U statistic:
F_E--0000000.0180.093
F_ED--0.2870.2240.5480.3620.4470.1890.170.093
F_D--0.0490.0980.2990.0720.1560.030.0180.002
E_ED--00000000.001
E_D--00000000
ED_D--0.2870.4370.5480.3620.4470.2030.170.093

Income Categorization Method Outcomes

BaselineVersion 2Version 3Version 4Version 5
FrontierPakistan, Zimbabwe, Kenya, India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Vietnam, Morocco, Philippines, Tunisia, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Indonesia, Jordan+ Lebanon, Jamaica, Colombia+ Lebanon, Jamaica, ColombiaBaselineBaseline
EmergingLebanon, Jamaica, Colombia, South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Peru, Botswana, Brazil, Thailand, Serbia, Mexico, Turkey, Argentina, Mauritius, Kazakhstan− Lebanon, Jamaica, Colombia+ Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China− Lebanon, Jamaica, Colombia+ Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China+ Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China+ Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China
Early-developedBulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China, Romania, Chile, Croatia, Oman, Trinidad and Tobago, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Lithuania, Bahrain, Portugal, Czech Republic, Estonia, Kuwait, Slovenia, Spain, Taiwan− Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China− Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China+ Korea, Italy, United Arab Emirates− Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China− Bulgaria, Russia, Malaysia, China+ Korea, Italy, United Arab Emirates
DevelopedKorea, Italy, United Arab Emirates, France, Japan, United Kingdom, New Zealand, Canada, Israel, Belgium, Germany, Hong Kong, Austria, Finland, Qatar, Australia, Sweden, Netherlands, Singapore, Denmark, USA, Norway, Ireland, SwitzerlandBaseline− Korea, Italy, United Arab EmiratesBaseline− Korea, Italy, United Arab Emirates

Average Summary Statistics of Equity Indices Daily Returns

GDPR.AMeanMinMedianMaxASDSkewnessKurtosis
First sample: 51 Countries, 2002–2022
Frontier33349.24%0.04%−13.2%0.05%13.0%22.2%−0.7218.2
Emerging68529.73%0.04%−13.4%0.06%13.6%29.1%−0.2512.6
Early_developed181225.43%0.04%−14.9%0.05%13.1%24.2%−0.5219.3
Developed506037.69%0.04%−15.7%0.04%14.3%22.7%−0.2412.4
Second sample: 75 Countries, 2010–2022
Frontier28040.52%0.03%−13.8%0.03%9.4%21.7%−1.7745.4
Emerging69210.52%0.02%−14.4%0.02%9.9%24.8%−1.2038.4
Early_developed178582.13%0.02%−15.1%0.02%10.8%20.4%−0.8222.2
Developed506036.80%0.02%−17.5%0.01%10.4%19.7%−0.5412.3

MDD for All Countries Under Investigation from Baseline Classification

CountryClassFirst (%)Second (%)CountryClassFirst (%)Second (%)
ARGENTINAEmerging 80.6LITHUANIAEarly-developed 33.5
AUSTRALIADeveloped66.846.5MALAYSIAEarly-developed51.947.0
AUSTRIADeveloped76.859.3MAURITIUSEmerging 54.7
BAHRAINEarly-developed83.334.4MEXICOEmerging64.860.2
BANGLADESHFrontier 64.9MOROCCOFrontier55.844.3
BELGIUMDeveloped75.147.0NETHERLANDSDeveloped64.234.7
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINAEmerging 48.9NEW ZEALANDDeveloped65.736.5
BOTSWANAEmerging 87.3NIGERIAFrontier 79.2
BRAZILEmerging75.774.2NORWAYDeveloped75.253.2
BULGARIAEarly-developed 64.2OMANEarly-developed66.236.5
CANADADeveloped61.543.3PAKISTANFrontier 70.2
CHILEEarly-developed72.772.7PERUEmerging67.957.8
CHINAEarly-developed73.241.7PHILIPPINESFrontier61.749.9
COLOMBIAEmerging77.677.6POLANDEarly-developed78.259.9
CROATIAEarly-developed 40.3PORTUGALEarly-developed67.450.4
CZECH REPUBLICEarly-developed67.261.1QATARDeveloped64.243.9
DENMARKDeveloped64.234.7ROMANIAEarly-developed 44.3
EGYPTFrontier70.358.2RUSSIAEarly-developed79.866.5
ESTONIAEarly-developed 34.5SERBIAEmerging 60..2
FINLANDDeveloped73.447.4SINGAPOREDeveloped64.339.5
FRANCEDeveloped60.739.8SLOVENIAEarly-developed 40.1
GERMANYDeveloped62.946.4SOUTH AFRICAEmerging63.260.8
GREECEEarly-developed97.491.1SPAINEarly-developed62.751.9
HONG KONGDeveloped64.432.5SRI LANKAFrontier 69.3
HUNGARYEarly-developed81.362.5SWEDENDeveloped68.338.2
INDIAFrontier74.346.2SWITZERLANDDeveloped52.726.6
INDONESIAFrontier72.160.5TAIWANEarly-developed60.630.8
IRELANDDeveloped83.541.0THAILANDEmerging62.346.5
ISRAELDeveloped41.439.4TRINIDAD AND TOBAGOEarly-developed 55.0
ITALYDeveloped70.750.5TUNISIAFrontier 48.6
JAMAICAEmerging 45.5TURKEYEmerging75,6%75.6
JAPANDeveloped53.331.2UKRAINEFrontier 95.1
JORDANFrontier67.037.2UNITED ARAB EMIRATESDeveloped86.158.1
KAZAKHSTANEmerging 66.6UNITED KINGDOMDeveloped63.743.2
KENYAFrontier 47.2USADeveloped55.735.0
KOREADeveloped72.150.0VIETNAMFrontier 49.9
KUWAITEarly-developed68.544.6ZIMBABWEFrontier 96.5
LEBANONEmerging 68.7

Pairwise Wilcoxon Test p Values for Income Versions 4 and 5

STDVaR.NES.NSTDVaR.NES.N
Version 4Version 5
First sample: 51 Countries, 2002–2022
F_E0.0340.0370.0440.0310.0370.044
F_ED0.857110.5070.3570.571
F_D0.8570.66910.730.570.885
E_ED0.0340.0970.0230.5070.5550.571
E_D0.1510.3150.140.0200.0560.014
ED_D0.857110.5070.4870.571
Second sample: 75 Countries, 2010–2022
F_E0.328-0.2530.328-0.253
F_ED0.716-0.8030.707-0.868
F_D0.033-0.0340.031-0.028
E_ED0.716-0.5540.707-0.868
E_D0.716-0.8030.707-0.868
ED_D0.093-0.0940.223-0.205

Comparison of MSCI and Baseline Classifications with early-developed included in developed category

Baseline classification, ED in DMSCI classificationDifferences
FrontierBangladesh, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, Vietnam, ZimbabweBahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Croatia, Estonia, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lithuania, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Romania, Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, VietnamEgypt, India, Indonesia - emerging in MSCI classification; Ukraine and Zimbabwe, standalone
EmergingArgentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, TurkeyBrazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab EmiratesArgentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Lebanon, Jamaica, standalone in MSCI classification; Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Serbia, frontier
DevelopedAustralia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Lithuania, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, USAAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USABahrain, Estonia, Oman, Romania, Slovenia, frontier; Chile, China, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates, emerging; Bulgaria, standalone.
Standalone Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Bulgaria, Jamaica, Lebanon, Malta, Palestine, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Ukraine, and ZimbabweWe chose not to use this classification, and instead added Early-developed market class.

Summary of the Literature Review

SubjectSummaryAuthors
Economic growthIncreases stock market returnAl-Tamimi et al. (2011)
Amaresh et al. (2020)
Amtiran et al. (2017)
Giri and Joshi (2017)
Kalam (2020)
Montes and Tiberto (2012)
Osamwonyi and Evbayiro-Osagie (2012)
Singh et al. (2011)
Causes stock market developmentCherif and Gazdar (2010)
Ho and Iyke (2017)
Yartey (2008)
Banking sector developmentCauses stock market developmentDellas and Hess (2005)
Ho and Iyke (2017)
Pradhan et al. (2014)
Reduces stock market volatilityDellas and Hess (2005)
Financial liberalizationReduces stock market volatilityJames and Karoglou (2010)
Umutlu et al. (2010)
Downside volatilityIncreases stock market returnAli (2019)
Ang et al. (2006)
Estrada (2007)
Risk-adjusted returnsHigher in emerging marketsAtilgan and Demirtas (2016)

Reference to Research Hypotheses and Questions

RH/RQVerificationDetails
RH1RejectedDaily and monthly return do not depend on the level of economic development
RH2Not rejectedVolatility metrics depend on the level of economic development
RQ1RejectedThe obtained result is sensitive to varying time periods
RQ2RejectedThe obtained result is sensitive to varying income categorizations

Summary Statistics for Metrics of the Second Sample

FrontierEmergingEarly-developedDevelopedFrontierEmergingEarly-developedDeveloped
MinR.DR.M
−6.4−8.1−9.3−10.6−22.9−23.0−18.4−16.3
Mean0.00.00.00.00.50.30.40.7
Median0.10.00.00.10.70.90.30.9
Max2.14.05.07.612.614.013.615.4
MinSTDDSTD
11.113.810.98.75.77.35.65.1
Mean17.421.317.517.111.413.311.010.7
Median16.019.815.915.410.212.39.39.5
Max62.374.469.772.952.153.355.952.8
MinVaR.HVaR.N
1.01.30.90.91.21.51.21.0
Mean2.02.42.01.92.12.62.12.1
Median1.82.21.71.71.92.41.91.8
Max9.19.910.29.68.810.39.49.7
MinES.HES.N
1.11.51.21.01.82.11.61.3
Mean2.42.92.32.32.63.22.62.6
Median2.12.62.12.02.43.02.42.3
Max10.910.711.911.98.19.99.410.0
MinMDDUI
2.22.31.71.51.31.30.90.8
Mean5.56.35.34.93.23.63.12.8
Median4.75.44.54.12.83.22.52.2
Max30.032.630.731.320.122.621.521.0

p Values of the Kruskal–Wallis Test for All Income Categorization Outcomes

R.DR.MSTDDSTDVaR.HVaR.NES.HES.NMDDUI
First sample: 51 Countries, 2002–2022
Version 20.2790.8190.1530.6280.4190.2480.5480.1510.320.594
Version 30.4280.8330.1210.8050.4320.1810.5430.1380.2770.468
Version 40.2310.810.0140.530.140.0270.3050.0140.0950.24
Version 50.3580.8190.010.6970.1380.0180.2930.0120.0810.177
Second sample: 75 Countries, 2010–2022
Version 20.4840.8670.1450.2750.2330.1910.2380.1610.1560.075
Version 30.5830.8430.0970.1270.1640.1370.1560.1210.1110.051
Version 40.5070.8190.0220.110.0670.0510.0820.020.2890.222
Version 50.6220.850.030.2250.0950.0670.1170.0260.3840.302

Summary Statistics for Metrics of the First Sample

FrontierEmergingEarly-developedDevelopedFrontierEmergingEarly-developedDeveloped
MinR.DR.M
−9.1−12.5−9.6−10.6−26.6−31.8−27.3−24.7
Mean0.00.10.00.01.01.20.70.8
Median0.10.10.10.11.31.60.91.2
Max5.69.79.07.615.720.617.215.4
MinSTDDSTD
9.39.611.08.73.83.95.14.9
Mean18.925.220.419.212.215.212.511.7
Median17.222.617.816.510.913.710.79.9
Max69.7102.491.487.356.369.157.652.8
MinVaR.HVaR.N
0.70.60.90.91.10.91.21.0
Mean2.12.82.32.12.33.12.52.3
Median1.92.51.91.82.02.82.11.9
Max10.112.910.69.89.714.112.511.9
MinES.HES.N
0.90.71.01.01.41.71.71.3
Mean2.53.32.72.52.83.83.02.9
Median2.32.92.22.12.63.42.72.5
Max11.913.412.411.99.113.612.311.8
MinMDDUI
1.21.31.51.40.70.80.90.7
Mean5.77.46.15.63.34.33.53.2
Median4.75.95.04.42.63.32.82.4
Max33.944.538.735.221.429.824.122.9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0006 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 90 - 115
Published on: May 30, 2023
Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2023 Iskandar Sheraliev, Robert Ślepaczuk, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.