The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Boichenko, Kateryna; Umair Ashraf, Rana; Nuno Mata, Mário; Cristian Gherghina, Ștefan

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 10 (2023): Issue 57 (January 2023)

By: Kateryna Boichenko

, Rana Umair Ashraf

, Mário Nuno Mata

and Ștefan Cristian Gherghina

Open Access

|Apr 2023

Figures & Tables

Clustering of Publications in the Scopus Science Metric Database for 2014–2022Source: Formed by the authors based on bibliographic data in the Scopus database

Correlation Matrix of the EU Socio-economic Development Indicators Under StudyNote. ID1, integral index for group ‘economy and environment’; integral index for ID2, group ‘business and trade’; integral index for ID3, group ‘people and work’; ID, a complex integral indicator of the three groupsSource: Formed by the authors

Map of Changes in the EU Socio-economic Development Indicators Against the Background of the War in Ukraine (February–September 2022)Note. ID1, integral index of economy and environment; ID2, integral index of business and trade; ID3, integral index of people and work; ID, complex index of socio-economic developmentSource: Formed by the authors

Dendrogram of EU Country Clustering by Socio-economic Development Indicators Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine (September 2022)Source: Formed by the authors

Initial Data on Indicators of Business and Tradea

Country	PI	RNB	DB	PS	PC	TVS	TN	EX	IM	MB
Belgium	7.6	−1.5	−14.7	–	−1.1	1.0	4.11	−7.9	−3.2	194.7
Austria	−2.2	–	–	–	−0.8	4.5	1.47	−0.9	0.1	124.9
Bulgaria	−2.6	3.1	−10.9	0.3	0.2	0.1	−18.55	2.8	10.9	135.4
Croatia	0.4	1.3			1.6	−1.1	7.42	−12.8	−7.4	148.6
Cyprus	−1.0	–	–	–	–	0.8	−8.09	34.0	−10.5	180.6
Czech Republic	0.0	–	–	−1.2	−1.7	0.9	−4.97	−2.4	2.5	144.0
Denmark	2.0	1.9	−11.1		0.8	−0.8	20.89	−0.3	−4.9	134.3
Estonia	−3.6	−5.4	−21.3	4.2	–	−0.2	−13.16	−1.2	−2.2	172.6
Finland	1.4	–	–	0.4	0.2	0.7	1.12	−1.7	−10.1	92.5
France	−0.9	8.3	10.9	−0.6	1.1	1.3	3.34	−2.3	0.6	77.6
Germany	1.3	−1.9	−2.3	0.5	0.4	1.5	−0.3	−0.5	−1.2	102.0
Greece	−4.9	–	–	–	–	−1.2	−3.51	3.7	2.3	114.7
Hungary	1.3	8.0	110.6	−1.1	2.4	0.4	−14.17	−3.0	3.6	187.7
Ireland	6.6	−35.6	–	–	–	−1.8		−4.4	−2.5	240.5
Italy	−1.8	−3.5	−8.0		1.1	−0.3	−1.66	−0.8	−4.5	79.1
Latvia	−0.8	−1.4	1.7	3.5	−	1.2	−24.96	−9.3	2.9	151.0
Lithuania	−7.2	−1.0	4.0	0.1	−	0.7	−16.88	−3.4	2.6	176.2
Luxembourg	1.9	−3.6	−10.9		−2.1	3.4	10.66	0.0	−1.6	360.9
Malta	1.0	–	–	–	–	1.6	−11.8	−6.8	−14.0	274.9
Netherlands	1.7	6.6	12.0	–	1.3	1.4	9.06	−0.5	0.0	182.5
Poland	−0.2	6.2	−5.1	7.3	−5.8	1.8	−0.35	0.9	1.4	124.7
Portugal	−2.1	6.8	−2.9		−2.8	−1.9	−0.05	−1.3	−5.9	109.5
Romania	−0.5	13.8	−36–1	2.5	3.9	−0.7	−21.54	−3.8	−2.9	88.2
Slovakia	−0.7	−8.7	−18.9	−1.4	−0.5	−1.2	−17.88	−0.9	4.0	189.3
Slovenia	−0.4	−4.8	−16.9	−0.7	−0.4	−3.5	1.34	−17.0	−6.8	176.8
Spain	−0.5	−4.0	66.1		−2.0	0.4	−2.48	−0.5	−1.6	85.6
Sweden	1.7	–	–	2.3	2.2	−0.7	4.12	−0.1	0.0	102.5

Initial Data on Indicators of People and Worka

Country	EM	UE	LM	TE	YP	UTE	UTI
Belgium	6.80	5.90	10.60	71.40	9.50	21.70	23.10
Austria	13.70	4.20	9.50	77.60	8.60	38.60	21.10
Bulgaria	−7.00	4.50	7.70	75.00	15.00	9.20	9.00
Croatia	1.50	6.30	11.40	69.50	12.80	21.20	15.30
Cyprus	6.80	7.30	12.30	77.80	14.50	21.50	5.00
Czech Republic	2.10	2.40	4.80	81.60	11.50	26.70	10.80
Denmark	10.80	4.30	7.50	80.60	7.00	48.80	17.00
Estonia	17.60	5.80	8.40	81.90	10.00	33.20	19.10
Finland	10.10	6.80	12.40	78.40	9.30	32.40	21.20
France	6.60	7.60	14.00	73.90	12.00	28.10	22.40
Germany	11.60	3.00	6.20	81.40	8.00	32.70	24.60
Greece	6.80	12,40	17,70	66,60	15,40	14,10	15,70
Hungary	2.50	3.10	5.10	80.20	10.40	24.00	20.70
Ireland	12.20	4.20	9.70	78.90	8.40	36.60	27.90
Italy	6.30	8.00	19.10	64.80	20.20	17.60	38.70
Latvia	6.60	6.40	10.70	77.30	11.10	31.80	27.10
Lithuania	4.60	5.40	8.50	79.60	10.10	31.,40	13.90
Luxembourg	8.80	4.30	9.80	75.20	6.10	30.90	22.90
Malta	17.00	2.90	4.10	81.20	7.10	13.80	15.90
Netherlands	13.90	3.40	8.70	82.90	5.00	41.10	25.40
Poland	7.20	2.70	4.60	76.90	11.00	17.30	29.60
Portugal	24.40	6.00	11.10	77.40	8.50	24.10	21.20
Romania	−7.10	5.40	8.40	68.40	20.60	14.90	15.00
Slovakia	7.70	6.10	7.30	77.30	12.10	11.60	0.80
Slovenia	10.70	4.40	6.80	77.80	9.00	26.10	30.20
Spain	16.30	12.60	20.20	69.90	11.80	25.90	20.10
Sweden	4.60	7.60	12.10	82.30	5.30	29.00	19.90

Modelling Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Factor	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
(Intercept)	65.45^***	70.39^***	70.39^***	69.08^***	70.87^***
	(0.86)	(1.93)	(1.91)	(1.83)	(1.73)
GDP	2.65^*	−2.33	−2.39	−2.66	–
	(1.16)	(2.39)	(2.33)	(2.14)	–
HICP	−5.22^*	−11.86^***	−11.81^***	−10.67^***	−5.72^**
	(2.56)	(3.15)	(3.08)	(2.93)	(2.05)
ES	5.50^**	2.16	2.14	3.28	4.35^*
	(1.80)	(2.74)	(2.64)	(2.41)	(2.01)
AQ	4.12	−1.68	−1.66	–	–
	(2.19)	(2.88)	(2.83)	–	–
CF	14.50^***	9.72^***	9.60^***	9.67^***	10.56^***
	(1.74)	(2.78)	(2.68)	(2.48)	(1.92)
EA	−7.76^***	−0.41	–	–	–
	(1.41)	(2.16)	–	–	–
NFA	1.29	−10.07^**	−10.08^***	−10.07^***	−7.76^***
	(2.23)	(3.00)	(2.93)	(2.71)	(1.86)
PI	0.50	−0.34	–	–	–
	(1.09)	(2.06)	–	–	–
RNB	0.39	1.10	1.18	–	–
	(1.45)	(2.36)	(2.26)	–	–
DB	4.17^**	2.45	2.41	2.51	–
	(1.27)	(2.28)	(2.20)	(2.04)	–
PS	−1.59	–	–	–	–
	(1.07)	–	–	–	–
PC	−0.29	–	–	–	–
	(0.99)	–	–	–	–
TVS	1.23	1.50	1.52	–	–
	(1.24)	(2.30)	(2.21)	–	–
TN	−5.94^**	−8.30^*	−8.23^**	−6.13^*	–
	(1.76)	(3.23)	(3.12)	(2.91)	–
EX	0.08	–	–	–	–
	(1.08)	–	–	–	–
IM	−1.73	0.19	–	–	–
	(1.06)	(2.14)	–	–	–
MB	18.67^***	−11.46^***	−11.45^***	−10.58^***	−9.10^***
	(2.81)	(2.55)	(2.50)	(2.35)	(1.96)
EM	3.31^**	2.83	2.79	2.50	–
	(1.19)	(2.16)	(2.09)	(2.00)	–
LM	21.35^***	10.92^***	11.06^***	10.49^***	16.23^***
	(3.11)	(2.90)	(2.74)	(2.46)	(2.16)
YP	−16.56^***	−7.09^*	−7.08^*	−6.10^*	–
	(2.02)	(3.18)	(3.13)	(2.86)	–
UTI	11.54^***	8.38^***	8.29^***	7.41^***	–
	(2.10)	(2.42)	(2.37)	(2.13)	–
N	61	133	133	140	216
R2	0.95	0.71	0.71	0.71	0.61

Initial Data on the Economy and Environmental Indicatorsa

Country	GDP	HICP	ES	AQ	CF	EA	NFA
Belgium	0.2	12.1	84.8	25.7	−14.1	−4.33	0.9
Austria	0.2	11.0	86.5	15.7	−16.9	−2.34	1.9
Bulgaria	0.6	15.6	99.3	17.2	−22.3	−2.26	−1.5
Croatia	−0.4	12.6	102.1	32.6	−3.4	0.07	1.7
Cyprus	1.3	9.0	101.7	17.5	−13.2	10.33	−4.2
Czech Republic	−0.2	17.8	88.4	21.8	−30.9	−1.68	0.0
Denmark	0.3	11.1	76.9	15.9	−15.9	−1.64	1.6
Estonia	−1.8	24.1	82.5	14.2	−20.3	4.70	2.6
Finland	−0.2	8.4	83.6	14.2	−32.6	−7.16	2.1
France	0.2	6.2	96.2	29.6	−14.0	−1.56	−4.4
Germany	0.4	10.9	92.4	21.0	−23.0	−3.60	−0.3
Greece	−0.5	12.1	105.0	33.9	3.5	−10.14	3.0
Hungary	−0.4	20.7	93.9	21.5	−18.9	2.21	−2.3
Ireland	2.3	8.6	95.0	17.1	−10,3	6.34	−1.2
Italy	0.5	9.4	96.1	26.0	−6.9	−0.71	−3.1
Latvia	−1.7	22.0	91.2	19.4	−36.7	−3.80	0.9
Lithuania	0.4	22.5	95.2	16.2	−16.1	−9.92	4.8
Luxembourg	1.1	8.8	92.1	19.3	−3.4	−2.49	2.2
Malta	1.3	7.4	94.7	25.9	−15.3	35.48	2.9
Netherlands	−0.2	17.1	90.8	24.3	−13.1	4.58	1.4
Poland	1.0	15.7	88.4	26.0	−10.6	1.51	−0.8
Portugal	0.4	9.8	99.9	16.7	−1.2	1.26	1.9
Romania	1.2	13.4	102.7	31.6	−12.3	−7.36	−1.4
Slovakia	0.4	13.6	86.7	15.4	−18.8	−10.46	−2.4
Slovenia	−1.4	10.6	89.9	21.1	−29.9	−2.05	−3.6
Spain	0.1	9.0	96.7	22.0	−8.5	−4.53	−7.6
Sweden	0.6	10.3	82.6	17.0	−25.5	−3.12	5.4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English

Page range: 72 - 89

Published on: Apr 29, 2023

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

Keywords:

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2023 Kateryna Boichenko, Rana Umair Ashraf, Mário Nuno Mata, Ștefan Cristian Gherghina, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Initial Data on Indicators of Business and Tradea

Initial Data on Indicators of People and Worka

Modelling Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Initial Data on the Economy and Environmental Indicatorsa

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