Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

	Czechia	Germany	All other countries
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	48.17	45.39	43.77
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	(37.87)	(39.97)	(38.52)
Share of respondents with high expectations of working¹ (%)	35.14	34.44	31.96
Share of respondents with high expectations of working¹ (%)	(46.00)	(47.16)	(45.27)
Expected statutory retirement age	61.2	64	63.4
Expected statutory retirement age	(2.21)	(2.11)	(2.89)
Share of employed	0.730	0.807	0.774
Share of employed	(0.347)	(0.330)	(0.335)
Average age	56.98	56.79	56.98
Average age	(3.347)	(3.524)	(3.561)
White-collar occupation²	0.595	0.724	0.668
White-collar occupation²	(0.486)	(0.442)	(0.466)
Primary education	0.0700	0.00469	0.107
Primary education	(0.255)	(0.0684)	(0.309)
Lower secondary	0.299	0.0606	0.155
Lower secondary	(0.458)	(0.239)	(0.361)
Higher secondary	0.455	0.537	0.368
Higher secondary	(0.498)	(0.499)	(0.482)
Tertiary education	0.176	0.398	0.370
Tertiary education	(0.381)	(0.490)	(0.483)
Share of respondents with some health limitation in their daily activities	0.315	0.326	0.236
	(0.372)	(0.368)	(0.339)
Observations	2,071	2,344	24,793

Note: Standard deviations are given in parentheses.

1 The high expectations of working are those responses that reported values for the probability of working greater than 75%.

2 The types of occupations with ISCO code 1 to 5.

Employment Rate in the 55–64 Age Group as a Percent of the Population in the Czech Republic
Source: Eurostat (LFS, Employment and activity by sex and age)

Share of Employed People for a Given Age in Years 2007 and 2017 in the Czech Republic
Note. For comparison purposes, there also are data for Germany in 2017.
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Proportion of Employed in Relation to the Subjective Expected Age of Receiving a Retirement Pension
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Employment Rates of Respondents With Limitations in Daily Activities Across Respondents’ Ages (Czech Republic and Germany)
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Employment Rate for Highly vs. Low-skilled Men Across Respondents’ Ages in 2007 and 2017 in the Czech Republic
Note. For comparison purposes, there also are data for Germany in 2017.
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Individuals with High Expectations of Working at the Age of 63 (International Comparison).
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Individuals With High Expectations of Working at the Age of 63, by the Type of Occupation and the Highest Level of Educational Attainment (Men)
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Share of Those Actually Working of Those Who Declared a High Expectation of Working in the Previous Period
Note: The figure shows the average values together for working women and men.
Source: SHARE waves 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (own calculations)

Table 2

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Linear Probability Model)^*

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	0.421^***	0.383^***	0.374^***	0.245^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.030)
Germany	0.096^***	0.107^***	0.097^***	0.077^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
Denmark	0.010	0.013	0.008	0.030
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
Italy	0.173^***	0.123^***	0.112^***	0.053
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Spain	0.094^***	0.026	0.014	0.013
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
France	0.265^***	0.240^***	0.233^***	0.127^***
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)
Belgium	0.160^***	0.166^***	0.161^***	0.134^***
	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
The Netherlands	0.095^*	0.087^*	0.102^**	0.117^**
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Control variables		X	X	X
Education and occupation
			X	X
Health status
Expected retirement age				X
Year	X	X	X	X
Number of observations	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²	0.086	0.107	0.112	0.145

* Dependent variable in all regressions is a binary variable, and hence, it would be more appropriate to apply the probit model. We present results for the probit model in the Appendix in Table A2, and show that these results are in line with the ones using the linear probability model. Therefore, due to a clearer interpretation of the results, we chose the linear probability model for our analysis in the main text. The full linear probability model is in the Appendix in Table A3.

Notes: The results correspond to the model described in Equation (1).

*** p <0.01;

** p <0.05;

* p <0.1.

Reasons for Which Respondents Retired
Source: SHARE Waves 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 (own calculations)

Share of Age Groups of Men in Newly Granted Old-age Pensions, Year 2018 (Czech Republic)
Note: Figure values are expressed for regular and early retirement
Source: Own calculations based on the statistical yearbook (CSSA)

Table A1

Descriptive Statistics, All Countries

	Germany	Czechia	Sweden	Denmark	Italy	Spain	France	Belgium	The Netherlands
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	38.96	45.26	51.93	41.89	41.13	55.44	17.90	22.03	19.61
Average expectations of working at the age of 63 (%)	(41.67)	(40.45)	(41.00)	(41.32)	(40.61)	(38.69)	(31.51)	(34.56)	(33.85)
Share of respondents with high expectations of working (%)	30.46	34.38	44.13	34.08	31	43.65	11.28	15.26	15.22
Share of respondents with high expectations of working (%)	(46.05)	(47.53)	(49.68)	(47.42)	(46.29)	(49.64)	(31.65)	(35.98)	(35.96)
Share of employed	0.438	0.185	0.667	0.474	0.367	0.504	0.160	0.225	0.280
Share of employed	(0.496)	(0.389)	(0.471)	(0.500)	(0.482)	(0.500)	(0.367)	(0.418)	(0.450)
White-collar occupation	0.734	0.582	0.824	0.797	0.582	0.528	0.701	0.707	0.783
White-collar occupation	(0.442)	(0.494)	(0.381)	(0.402)	(0.494)	(0.500)	(0.458)	(0.455)	(0.413)
Primary education	0	0.0770	0.0721	0.0379	0.242	0.354	0.212	0.100	0.0676
Primary education	(0)	(0.267)	(0.259)	(0.191)	(0.428)	(0.479)	(0.409)	(0.301)	(0.251)
Lower secondary education	0.0761	0.320	0.165	0.0702	0.243	0.268	0.0793	0.219	0.321
Lower secondary education	(0.265)	(0.467)	(0.371)	(0.256)	(0.429)	(0.443)	(0.270)	(0.414)	(0.468)
Higher secondary education	0.468	0.427	0.296	0.383	0.323	0.172	0.405	0.317	0.266
Higher secondary education	(0.499)	(0.495)	(0.457)	(0.486)	(0.468)	(0.377)	(0.491)	(0.465)	(0.442)
Tertiary education	0.456	0.177	0.467	0.509	0.192	0.206	0.304	0.364	0.345
Tertiary education	(0.498)	(0.382)	(0.499)	(0.500)	(0.394)	(0.405)	(0.460)	(0.481)	(0.476)
Expected retirement age	63.7	61.2	64.2	65.4	62	64	60	62.3	65.05
Expected retirement age	(2.08)	(2.19)	(2.00)	(1.26)	(3.31)	(2.67)	(2.43)	(2.77)	(1.67)
Good health	0.423	0.454	0.559	0.532	0.438	0.420	0.492	0.543	0.754
Good health	(0.494)	(0.498)	(0.497)	(0.499)	(0.497)	(0.494)	(0.500)	(0.498)	(0.431)
Observations	788	701	818	898	600	559	807	1055	414

Table A2

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (Probit Estimation of Main Model).

*Probit*	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	1.143^***	1.054^***	1.035^***	0.658^***
	(0.082)	(0.084)	(0.085)	(0.092)
Germany	0.302^***	0.341^***	0.316^***	0.259^***
	(0.084)	(0.086)	(0.087)	(0.088)
Denmark	0.036	0.050	0.038	0.119
	(0.083)	(0.084)	(0.084)	(0.085)
Italy	0.510^***	0.377^***	0.348^***	0.151
	(0.096)	(0.098)	(0.099)	(0.102)
Spain	0.294^***	0.107	0.071	0.068
	(0.092)	(0.098)	(0.098)	(0.100)
France	0.746^***	0.691^***	0.673^***	0.347^***
	(0.106)	(0.108)	(0.108)	(0.115)
Belgium	0.478^***	0.505^***	0.495^***	0.414^***
	(0.094)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.097)
The Netherlands	0.298^**	0.288^**	0.335^**	0.407^***
	(0.146)	(0.146)	(0.147)	(0.147)
Lower secondary education		−0.166^*	−0.184^*	−0.195^*
Lower secondary education		(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.102)
Higher secondary education		−0.235^**	−0.252^***	−0.266^***
Higher secondary education		(0.095)	(0.096)	(0.097)
Tertiary education		−0.549^***	−0.559^***	−0.523^***
Tertiary education		(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.101)
White-collar occupation		−0.103^*	−0.102^*	−0.113^*
White-collar occupation		(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.059)
Good health			−0.214^***	−0.204^***
Good health			(0.048)	(0.048)
Expected retirement age				−0.154^***
Expected retirement age				(0.014)
_cons	−0.817^***	−0.381^***	−0.252^**	9.653^***
	(0.057)	(0.102)	(0.107)	(0.935)
N	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²

Note: Standard errors in parentheses.

* p < 0.1;

** p < 0.05;

*** p < 0.01.

Table A3

Differences in Unplanned Retirement Across Countries Compared to Sweden and Possible Factors That Explain These Differences (LPM)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Czech Republic	0.421^***	0.383^***	0.374^***	0.245^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.030)
Germany	0.096^***	0.107^***	0.097^***	0.077^***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)
Denmark	0.010	0.013	0.008	0.030
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
Italy	0.173^***	0.123^***	0.112^***	0.053
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Spain	0.094^***	0.026	0.014	0.013
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
France	0.265^***	0.240^***	0.233^***	0.127^***
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)
Belgium	0.160^***	0.166^***	0.161^***	0.134^***
	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
The Netherlands	0.095^*	0.087^*	0.102^**	0.117^**
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Lower secondary education		−0.060^*	−0.066^*	−0.060^*
Lower secondary education		(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
Higher secondary Education		−0.086^***	−0.092^***	−0.085^***
Higher secondary Education		(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)
Tertiary education		−0.189^***	−0.191^***	−0.166^***
Tertiary education		(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)
White-collar occupation		−0.038^*	−0.038^*	−0.041^**
White-collar occupation		(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
Good health			−0.071^***	−0.067^***
Good health			(0.016)	(0.016)
Expected retirement age				−0.049^***
Expected retirement age				(0.004)
_cons	0.207^***	0.367^***	0.412^***	3.537^***
	(0.018)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.280)
N	3255	3255	3255	3255
R²	0.086	0.107	0.112	0.145

Note: Standard errors in parentheses.

* p < 0.1;

** p < 0.05;

*** p < 0.01.

References

Authors

Metrics

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0007 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English, German

Page range: 93 - 112

Published on: Jul 13, 2022

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

labour supply,

expectations,

retirement age,

JEL:

J14,

J 26,

J32

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2022 Filip Pertold, Miroslava Federičová, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Volume 9 (2022): Issue 56 (January 2022)

Expectations of older workers regarding their exit from the labour market and its realization

Figures & Tables

Table 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Table 2

Figure 9

Figure A1

Table A1

Table A2

Table A3

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