Public Debt Sustainability and the COVID Pandemic: The Case of Poland

Kłysik-Uryszek, Agnieszka; Uryszek, Tomasz

Public Debt Sustainability and the COVID Pandemic: The Case of Poland

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 9 (2022): Issue 56 (January 2022)

By:

Agnieszka Kłysik-Uryszek

and Tomasz Uryszek

Open Access

|May 2022

Figures & Tables

Primary Balance, Including the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)

*Variable*	*2019*	*2020*	*2021*	*2022*	*2023*	*2024*	*2025*	*2026*	*2027*	*2028*	*2029*
Primary balance	0.6	−8.1	−2.4	−0.2	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8
Structural primary balance^a	−2,7	−8,3	−2,9	−0,5	−0,6	−0,7	−0,7	−0,8	−0,8	−0,8	−0,8

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Actual Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)

*Year*	d*	d_t – d*
2020	2.86	−10.96
2021	−1.93	−0.47

Initial no-Ponzi condition Including the Pandemic Effect

1^a	2^a	3^a	4^a
Actual	−14.40	−80.94	−95.35
Structural	−18.59	−103.69	−122.28

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Actual Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)

*Year*	d*	d_t – d*
2020	−1.29	1.69
2021	−1.13	1.23

Public Debt in EU and in Poland: Quarterly Data, 2016–2020 (in % of GDP, Actual Level)

*Period*	EU	*Poland*
2016Q1	85.8	51.9
2016Q2	85.7	53.6
2016Q3	84.7	53.2
2016Q4	84.0	54.2
2017Q1	84.2	53.8
2017Q2	84.0	53.1
2017Q3	82.9	51.9
2017Q4	81.5	50.6
2018Q1	81.3	51.2
2018Q2	80.7	50.5
2018Q3	80.6	49.4
2018Q4	79.5	48.8
2019Q1	79.9	48.9
2019Q2	79.7	47.7
2019Q3	79.2	47.0
2019Q4	77.6	45.7
2020Q1	79.4	47.6
2020Q2	87.7	54.8
2020Q3	89.8	56.6
2020Q4	90.8	57.6

Primary Balance Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)

*Variable*	*2019*	*2020*	*2021*	*2022*	*2023*	*2024*	*2025*	*2026*	*2027*	*2028*	*2029*
Primary balance	0.6	0.4	0.1	−0.2	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8
Structural primary balance^a	−0.5	−0.4	−0.5	−0.5	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Structural Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)

*Year*	d*	d_t – d*
2020	−1.52	1.12
2021	−1.31	0.81

Public Debt (in % of GDP) Excluding and Including the Pandemic Effect

*Variable*	*2019*	*2020*	*2021*	*2022*	*2023*	*2024*	*2025*	*2026*	*2027*	*2028*	*2029*
Gross public debt excluding the pandemic effect	48.3	47.4	46.3	45.9	45.9	45.9	46.1	46.4	46.8	47.3	48.0
Gross public debt including the pandemic effect	46.0	58.5	58.3	45.9	45.9	45.9	46.1	46.4	46.8	47.3	48.0

Initial no-Ponzi condition Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in% of GDP)

1^a	2^a	3^a	4^a
Actual	−3.75	−22.75	−26.50
Structural	−6.46	−37.56	−44.03

Official European Commission Predictions on Public Debt for 2020 and 2021 in Poland (Actual Data, in % of GDP)

*Date of Publication*	*2020*	*2021*
January 2020	45.,5	44.3
June 2020	58.5	58.3

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Structural Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)

*Year*	d*	d_t – d*
2020	−1.88	−6.42
2021	−1.65	−1.25

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0005 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English

Page range: 68 - 75

Published on: May 20, 2022

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 times per year

Keywords:

COVID,

public debt,

sustainability,

Poland

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2022 Agnieszka Kłysik-Uryszek, Tomasz Uryszek, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

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