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What Determines the Success of an IPO? Analysis of IPO Underpricing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Cover

What Determines the Success of an IPO? Analysis of IPO Underpricing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Open Access
|Jan 2021

Figures & Tables

Results of the analysis of the determinants of IPO underpricing on the WSE

VariableDescription of variableImpact
PEVC backedUse of private equity/venture capital funds in the transaction
New shares issuedNew shares issued in the total number of shares offered during the IPO
PEVThe quotient of the maximum price and the minimum price on the first day of listing+
TurnoverThe quotient of the trading volume on the first trading day and the number of shares sold during the IPO
Issued maxOffering the maximum issue price within the range established during the book building
Market returnRates of return of the WIG within 6 months before the IPO+

Descriptive statistics of the variables described in the model

StatisticNMeanSDMinimumPercentile(25)Percentile(75)Maximum
IR1010.0500.117−0.2470.0000.0820.663
New shares issued1010.5700.4400.0000.0001.0001.000
PEVC1010.2670.4450011
Market volatility1010.9140.2330.6500.7101.0501.860
Market return1011.81110.592−21.690−4.6208.29024.170
TECH1010.1390.3470001
AGE10116.52516.9301721137
DE1011.9742.5180.1000.6702.07012.920
PL1010.8610.3470111
ROE1010.3080.478−0.3800.1100.3804.380
ROA1010.1270.150−0.3200.0400.1800.690
EPS1012.2593.492−3.6500.6002.60020.309
PE10122.48273.955−139.6006.74019.020686.120
PBV1015.2269.0520.0901.1804.94067.910
Offer size10117.4833.8270.00017.18918.86522.404

Research hypotheses verified in the study

Offered capital (log(OfferSize))
HypothesisThe amount of capital offered has a negative impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationThe amount of capital offered can be treated as a measure of issuance risk. A large amount of capital offered may suggest less risk, leading to a higher issue price and less underpricing.
MetricThe number of shares offered during the IPO multiplied by the issue price, logarithmised in order to keep the correct functional form, in line with the principles of the classical linear regression model.
New shares issued
HypothesisNew shares issued have a negative impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationA company that offers more new shares during an IPO is expected to send a signal to the investors that it is confident in the IPO success and reduces the level of information asymmetry.
MetricThe ratio of the number of new shares issued to the total number of shares offered during the IPO.
Involvement of private equity or venture capital funds (PEVC)
HypothesisThe involvement of private equity or venture capital funds has a negative impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationIt is assumed that investment funds, due to their experience, are able to better estimate market behaviour and more accurately value a debuting company, which reduces the level of underpricing.
MetricBinary variable, ‘1’ equals involvement of fund, ‘0’ indicates no involvement of the fund.
Market volatility
HypothesisMarket volatility in the 6 months prior to the IPO has a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationA market characterised by high volatility indicates high investment risk. Thus, the chance of an IPO succeeding in a highly fluctuating market is much smaller, so a lower issue price is expected (Menyah, 1994).
MetricThe standard deviation of the daily rates of return of the WIG within 6 months before the IPO date.
Market return
HypothesisMarket return in the 6 months prior to the IPO has a positive influence on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationInvestors operating in the so-called ‘hot market’ are much more inclined to make sudden, often-irrational decisions, which may lead to a higher share price at the close of the first day of trading.
MetricRates of return of the WIG within 6 months before the IPO date.
New technologies sector (TECH)
HypothesisBeing in the technology industry has a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationNew tech companies enjoy great popularity on the stock exchange. Based on the theory of behavioural finance, we can conclude that the stocks of a new tech company will immediately rise.
MetricBinary variable, ‘1’ - a company in the new technology sector, ‘0’ – other.
Company age (AGE)
HypothesisCompany age has a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationCompanies that have been operating on the market for a long time have a lower risk of no profitability and are considered a more secure investment. In addition, they are more recognisable, which may positively affect the company's share price.
MetricDiscrete variable, the difference between the year of debut and the year in which the company was established
Company debt-to-equity ratio (DE)
HypothesisCompany debt-to-equity ratio affects the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationThe debt-to-equity ratio is the basic indicator of the fundamental analysis of a company. The ratio of debt to equity is also a key element of the most popular method of business valuation: the discounted cash flow method (Damodaran, 1996).
MetricThe quotient of the company's debt to equity in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.
Country of origin (PL)
HypothesisThe company's country of origin affects the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationInvestors are often sceptical about foreign companies and are reluctant to invest their capital on the first day of debut. This relationship was proved by Alnodel (2018) using the example of the Saudi Arabian market.
MetricBinary variable, ‘1’ - a company based in Poland, ‘0’ - other
Return on equity (ROE)
HypothesisReturn on equity has a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationThe value of the ratio shows the company's profitability and ability to use capital. A higher value of the ratio is positively perceived by investors and may positively affect the valuation of a listed company. It is a basic indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company (Zaręba, 2014).
MetricThe quotient of the company's net profit and equity in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.
Return on assets (ROA)
HypothesisReturn on assets has a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationThe value of the ratio shows the company's profitability and ability to use the capital. A higher value of the ratio is positively perceived by investors and may positively affect the valuation of a listed company. It is a basic indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company (Zaręba, 2014).
MetricThe quotient of the company's net profit and equity in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.
Earnings per share (EPS)
HypothesisEarnings per share have a positive impact on the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationA basic indicator of fundamental analysis showing how much profit is attributable to one share. The higher the value of the ratio, the higher the potential dividend in the future. A high value of this ratio should translate to investors’ optimism.
MetricEarnings per share in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.
Price/Earnings ratio (PE)
HypothesisThe price/earnings ratio affects the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationA basic indicator used in the valuation of an enterprise; its low value may indicate that the company is not very attractive to investors.
MetricThe price/earnings ratio in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.
Price/Book value ratio (PBV)
HypothesisThe price/book value affects the level of IPO underpricing.
SubstantiationThe indicator shows the relationship between market valuation and book valuation and is a kind of investors’ speculation about the company's future prospects.
MetricThe price/book ratio in the last full financial year as detailed in the prospectus.

Results of selected linear regression models

VariableDependent variable
IR
(1)(2)(3)(4)
log(OfferSize)−0.007** (0.003)−0.007** (0.003)−0.007** (0.003)−0.006** (0.003)
New shares issued0.019 (0.027)0.020 (0.026)
PEVC−0.078*** (0.026)−0.077*** (0.025)−0.078*** (0.024)−0.075*** (0.024)
Market volatility0.052 (0.058)0.051 (0.056)
Market return0.004*** (0.001)0.004*** (0.001)0.004*** (0.001)0.004*** (0.001)
TECH0.027 (0.036)0.029 (0.032)0.026 (0.031)
AGE0.001 (0.001)0.001 (0.001)0.001 (0.001)
DE−0.001 (0.005)
PL0.007 (0.035)
ROE−0.020 (0.035)−0.025 (0.028)
ROA0.129 (0.115)0.150* (0.089)0.090 (0.071)
EPS0.001 (0.004)
PE−0.0001 (0.0002)−0.0001 (0.0001)
PBV0.0002 (0.002)
Constant0.090 (0.092)0.092 (0.086)0.162*** (0.051)0.176*** (0.051)
Observations101101101101
R20.2670.2650.2460.216
Adjusted R20.1470.1840.1980.192
Residual standard error0.108 (df = 86)0.105 (df = 90)0.104 (df = 94)0.105 (df = 97)
F-statistic2.232** (df = 14; 86)3.252** (df = 10; 90)5.120** (df = 6; 94)8.927** (df = 3; 97)

Correlation matrix of the variables described in the model

VariableIROffer sizeNew shares IssuedPEVCMarket volatilityMarket returnTECHAGEDEPLROEROAEPSPEPBV
IR1−0.0630.044−0.310−0.0300.285−0.0020.078−0.0290.048−0.0280.1150.036−0.0090.015
Offer size−0.0631−0.320−0.103−0.0790.2450.055−0.0030.1800.0730.001−0.0650.247−0.031−0.050
New shares issued0.044−0.3201−0.179−0.163−0.021−0.049−0.137−0.029−0.1060.055−0.099−0.1440.008−0.100
PEVC−0.310−0.103−0.1791−0.012−0.0020.1460.060−0.095−0.017−0.068−0.0450.098−0.0820.093
Market volatility−0.030−0.079−0.163−0.0121−0.481−0.1360.0630.0140.099−0.120−0.125−0.127−0.089−0.093
Market return0.2850.245−0.021−0.002−0.4811−0.0270.0490.115−0.017−0.0270.0540.0990.042−0.0001
TECH−0.0020.055−0.0490.146−0.136−0.0271−0.142−0.1280.078−0.0450.048−0.0720.0150.407
AGE0.078−0.003−0.1370.0600.0630.049−0.1421−0.0420.205−0.074−0.1030.2510.017−0.137
DE−0.0290.180−0.029−0.0950.0140.115−0.128−0.0421−0.1980.286−0.187−0.0460.029−0.056
PL0.0480.073−0.106−0.0170.099−0.0170.0780.205−0.1981−0.351−0.113−0.0400.073−0.020
ROE−0.0280.0010.055−0.068−0.120−0.027−0.045−0.0740.286−0.35110.5780.117−0.0480.398
ROA0.115−0.065−0.099−0.045−0.1250.0540.048−0.103−0.187−0.1130.57810.2200.0110.524
EPS0.0360.247−0.1440.098−0.1270.099−0.0720.251−0.046−0.0400.1170.2201−0.102−0.118
PE−0.009−0.0310.008−0.082−0.0890.0420.0150.0170.0290.073−0.0480.011−0.10210.114
PBV0.015−0.050−0.1000.093−0.093−0.00010.407−0.137−0.056−0.0200.3980.524−0.1180.1141
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0001 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 1 - 14
Published on: Jan 21, 2021
Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2021 Paweł Małachowski, Dominika Gadowska-dos Santos, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.