Fig. 1
Fig. 2
| Goodness-of-Fit test statistics | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| successi,t = 0 | successi,t = 1 | ||||
| Percentile | Actual | Expected | Actual | Expected | H-L Value |
| 1 | 12 | 11.99 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 2 | 12 | 11.99 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 3 | 12 | 11.90 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| 4 | 12 | 11.80 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| 5 | 11 | 11.49 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| 6 | 11 | 11.29 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.12 |
| 8 | 8 | 8.24 | 4 | 3.76 | 0.02 |
| 9 | 6 | 6.05 | 6 | 5.95 | 0.00 |
| 10 | 1 | 1.27 | 12 | 11.73 | 0.06 |
| Total | 96 | 96.18 | 25 | 24.82 | 1.47 |
| H-L Statistic | 1.47 | Prob. Chi-Sq (8) | 0.99 | ||
| Andrews Statistic | 55.82 | Prob. Chi-Sq (10) | 0.00 | ||
Median score in selected categories of Parkiet's competition
| Year | PMI index | Industrial production | CPI | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3.65 | 4.71 | 4.82 | 7.76 |
| 2018 | 3.13 | 5.65 | 4.95 | 7.15 |
| 2017 | 3.79 | 5.54 | 4.45 | 5.85 |
| 2016 | 2.90 | 4.72 | 3.79 | 7.34 |
| 2015 | 3.10 | 4.91 | 3.16 | 6.28 |
Standard deviation of scores in selected categories of Parkiet's competition
| Year | PMI index | Industrial production | CPI | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1.44 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 3.02 |
| 2018 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 1.40 | 1.52 |
| 2017 | 0.80 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| 2016 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.99 |
Which variables increase the odds of scoring top five in Parkiet's competition
| Model parameters – Eq. (5) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | z-Statistic | Prob. |
| CPI | 0.94 | 0.44 | 2.15 | 0.03 |
| Core inflation | 1.25 | 0.45 | 2.75 | 0.01 |
| Unemployment rate | 1.18 | 0.45 | 2.63 | 0.01 |
| Employment | 1.53 | 0.48 | 3.21 | 0.00 |
| CA | 1.67 | 0.47 | 3.58 | 0.00 |
| EUR/PLN | 0.91 | 0.53 | 1.71 | 0.09 |
| POLGB10 | 1.46 | 0.41 | 3.58 | 0.00 |
| Constant | −3.18 | 0.54 | −5.87 | 0.00 |
| Model diagnostics | ||||
| McFadden R-squared | 0.51 | Obs with Dep = 0 | 96 | |
| LR statistic | 62.57 | Obs with Dep = 1 | 25 | |
| Prob (LR statistic) | 0.00 | Total obs | 121 | |
Are some analysts persistently better than others in forecasting? Models’ estimations output of Eq_ (6)
| Variable | β1 | β0 | Prob (x1 = 0) | Prob (x1 = 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 0.70 | −1.02 | 15% | 38% |
| 0.37 (0.06) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| Core inflation | 0.83 | −1.09 | 17% | 38% |
| 0.38 (0.03) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| CA | 0.66 | −0.94 | 17% | 39% |
| 0.35 (0.06) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| Export | 0.23 | −1.00 | ||
| 0.38 (0.54) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| Import | 0.64 | −0.96 | ||
| 0.36 (0.08) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| Construction output | 0.19 | −0.78 | ||
| 0.36 (0.59) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| Production | 0.07 | −0.91 | ||
| 0.41 (0.86) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| Retail sales | 0.07 | −0.83 | ||
| 0.37 (0.86) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| Employment | −0.74 | −0.59 | ||
| 0.41 (0.07) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| Unemployment rate | 0.02 | −0.78 | ||
| 0.37 (0.96) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| M3 | 0.65 | −0.99 | 16% | 37% |
| 0.35 (0.06) | 0.18 (0.00) | |||
| PMI | 0.35 | −0.89 | ||
| 0.36 (0.33) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| EUR/PLN | −0.44 | −0.74 | ||
| 0.43 (0.3) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| USD/PLN | 0.02 | −0.74 | ||
| 0.37 (0.95) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||
| POLGBs 10Y | −0.13 | −0.71 | ||
| 0.36 (0.72) | 0.17 (0.00) | |||