Definition of dependent variables (definitions of all variables available on request)
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
| y1L | Substitutability of bonds and bank loans—binary variable takes the value 1 if a firm issued bonds in the year t (and did not borrow from bank) and 0, if the firm borrowed in a year t (but did not issue bonds) |
| y2L | Complementariness of bonds and bank loans—binary variable takes the value 1 if a firm issued bonds in the year t, while contracting a bank loan at the same time; and 0, if the firm contracted a loan in the same year or issued bonds (but did not issue those kinds of debt together in the same year) |
| y3L | Bond issue—binary variable takes the value 1 if a firm issued bonds in the year t and 0—otherwise |
| y4L | Bank loans—binary variable takes the value 1 if a company borrowed a bank loan in the year covered by the analysis; and 0, if the company did not borrow a bank loan that year |
| ysub | Weak form of substitutability of bonds and bank loans—binary variable takes the value 1 if a firm issued bonds in the year t; and 0, if the firm borrowed only a bank loan in that year t |
| y1p | The size of the bond issue/total assets |
| y2p | Inflow of bank loan/total assets |
Results of panel analysis of determinants of corporate bonds issue
| y1p | FE | RE | AMGLS | FE | RE | AMGLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| y4l | −0.0816*** (0.0119) | −0.0709*** (0.0103) | −0.0422*** (0.0038) | −0.0819*** (0.0119) | −0.0714*** (0.0103) | −0.0425*** (0.0039) |
| Risk | −0.0094 (0.0822) | 0.0894 (0.0742) | 0.0608* (0.0347) | −0.0250 (0.0823) | 0.0806 (0.0741) | 0.0592* (0.0346) |
| Leverage | 0.0368*** (0.0142) | 0.0277** (0.0113) | 0.0114** (0.0056) | 0.0357** (0.0143) | 0.0256** (0.0115) | 0.0102* (0.0055) |
| dum_zscore | 0.0209## (0.0139) | 0.0266** (0.0118) | 0.0063* (0.0035) | 0.0219## (0.0139) | 0.0260** (0.0118) | 0.0060* (0.0035) |
| Debt | 0.0165*** (0.0014) | 0.0129*** (0.0012) | 0.0070*** (0.0005) | 0.0167*** (0.0014) | 0.0130*** (0.0016) | 0.0070*** (0.0005) |
| Growth | −0.0015** (0.0007) | 0.0004 (0.0007) | 0.0009# (0.0007) | −0.0013** (0.0007) | 0.0004 (0.0007) | 0.0009# (0.0007) |
| Tangibility | 0.0913** (0.0418) | −0.0057 (0.0195) | −0.0050 (0.0045) | 0.0836** (0.0418) | −0.0076 (0.0196) | −0.0055 (0.0047) |
| subs_inv | 0.0037*** (0.0013) | 0.0007 (0.0010) | −0.0002 (0.0003) | 0.0037*** (0.0013) | 0.0007 (0.0010) | −0.0001 (0.0003) |
| Rating_2 | 0.0135*** (0.0050) | 0.0030 (0.0044) | −0.0002 (0.0016) | |||
| Rating_3 | −0.0081** (0.0034) | −0.0030 (0.0027) | −0.0006 (0.0008) | |||
| public_debt_t1 | −0.0137* (0.0082) | 0.0024 (0.0075) | 0.0125*** (0.0030) | −0.0133## (0.0082) | 0.0019 (0.0075) | 0.0120*** (0.0030) |
| fin_pressures | 0.00001 (0.0003) | −0.0002 (0.0002) | −0.0002*** (0.00003) | −0.00002 (0.0003) | −0.0003 (0.0002) | −0.0002*** (0.00004) |
| _cons | −0.0511*** (0.0135) | −0.0117# (0.0105) | −0.0026# (0.0023) | −0.0310** (0.0148) | −0.0041 (0.0121) | −0.0011 (0.0035) |
| Number of observations | 761 | 761 | 761 | 761 | 761 | 761 |
| Number of groups | 208 | 208 | 208 | 208 | 208 | 208 |
| R2 within group | 0.2604 | 0.2164 | 0.2584 | 0.2182 | ||
| R2 between groups | 0.0251 | 0.1069 | 0.0307 | 0.1072 | ||
| R2 overall | 0.0908 | 0.1500 | 0.0963 | 0.1507 | ||
| corr(u_i, Xb) | −0.4480 | −0.4384 | ||||
| F(11,542) test | 17.35*** | 17.17*** | ||||
| F(207,542) test that all u_i=0 | 2.84*** | 2.82*** | ||||
| Wald test | 151.47*** | 369.16*** | 152.42*** | 361.24*** | ||
| Sargan–Hansen test of over-identifying restrictions | 127.022*** | 124.156*** | ||||
| Hausmann test | 109.98*** | 107.86*** | ||||
| Breusch–Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects | 54.87*** | 55.84*** | ||||
| Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data | 3.728 | 3.756 | ||||
| 0.0550 | 0.0541 | |||||
| Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity in fixed-effect regression model | −208*** | −208*** | ||||
Results of panel analysis of determinants of bank loans borrowings
| y2p | FE | RE | AMGLS | FE | RE | AMGLS | FE | RE | AMGLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| y1l | −0.1449*** (0.0239) | −0.1196*** (0.0206) | −0.0757*** (0.0053) | −0.1416*** (0.0240) | −0.1172*** (0.0206) | −0.0750*** (0.0052) | −0.1422*** (0.0238) | −0.1181*** (0.0206) | −0.0779*** (0.0052) |
| Risk | 0.0303 (0.1552) | −0.0347 (0.1295) | 0.0190 (0.0340) | 0.0313 (0.1555) | −0.0146 (0.1295) | 0.0233 (0.0328) | −0.0042 (0.1555) | −0.0535 (0.1309) | 0.0057 (0.0341) |
| Leverage | −0.0712** (0.0282) | −0.0017 (0.0186) | 0.0048 (0.0076) | −0.0743*** (0.0283) | −0.0031 (0.0192) | −0.0002 (0.0084) | −0.0775*** (0.0281) | −0.0113 (0.0191) | −0.0019 (0.0074) |
| market_to_ book | 1.04e-06 (2.18e-06) | 1.33e-06 (1.41e-06) | 6.23e-07 (5.36e-07) | 6.42e-07 (2.22e-06) | 1.34e-06 (1.43e-06) | 7.08e-07# (5.26e-07) | 1.82e-07 (2.19e-06) | 9.06e-07 (1.43e-06) | 2.57e-07 (5.17e-07) |
| roa | −0.2597** (0.1205) | 0.0618 (0.0998) | −0.0538** (0.0269) | −0.2364** (0.1212) | 0.0729 (0.1017) | −0.0533* (0.0279) | −0.2332* (0.1198) | 0.0990 (0.1005) | −0.0238 (0.0256) |
| dum_zscore | 0.0154 (0.0294) | −0.0146 (0.0218) | −0.0026 (0.0053) | 0.0174 (0.0296) | −0.0136 (0.0219) | −0.0033 (0.0052) | 0.0239 (0.0295) | −0.0138 (0.0218) | −0.0059# (0.0051) |
| Debt | 0.0148*** (0.0020) | 0.0123*** (0.0015) | 0.0090*** (0.0004) | 0.0145*** (0.0020) | 0.0120*** (0.0015) | 0.0088*** (0.0004) | 0.0148*** (0.0020) | 0.0122*** (0.0015) | 0.0091*** (0.0004) |
| Growth | 0.0017# (0.0013) | 0.0013 (0.0012) | 0.0014*** (0.0003) | 0.0017# (0.0013) | 0.0013 (0.0012) | 0.0013*** (0.0003) | 0.0021## (0.0013) | 0.0014 (0.0012) | 0.0015*** (0.0003) |
| Tangibility | −0.1092 (0.0792) | −0.0104 (0.0317) | 0.0129## (0.0084) | −0.1066 (0.0793) | −0.0144 (0.0321) | 0.0132## (0.0083) | −0.1246## (0.0793) | −0.0213 (0.0319) | 0.0200*** (0.0080) |
| oper_risk | 1.17e-07 (1.26e-07) | 1.76e-09 (3.63e-08) | 6.63e-09 (1.65e-08) | 1.11e-07 (1.26e-07) | 9.22e-10 (3.65e-08) | 6.34e-09 (1.70e-08) | 1.13e-07 (1.26e-07) | 5.15e-09 (3.65e-08) | 8.36e-09 (1.55e-08) |
| long_debt | 0.0279 (0.0265) | 0.0086 (0.0193) | −0.0006 (0.0047) | 0.0338 (0.0271) | 0.0105 (0.0196) | 0.0007 (0.0047) | 0.0417## (0.0268) | 0.0153 (0.0195) | 0.0035 (0.0046) |
| subs_inv | −0.0042* (0.0024) | −0.0021# (0.0016) | −0.0012** (0.0005) | −0.0040* (0.0024) | −0.0019# (0.0017) | −0.0013** (0.0005) | −0.0041* (0.0024) | −0.0019# (0.0016) | −0.0012*** (0.0005) |
| Rollover_debt | −1.65e-09 (2.51e-09) | −1.41e-09 (2.33e-09) | −1.13e-09** (5.41e-10) | −1.68e-09 (2.52e-09) | −1.36e-09 (2.34e-09) | −1.13e-09** (5.56e-10) | −1.71e-09 (2.51e-09) | −1.38e-09 (2.33e-09) | −1.2e-09** (5.94e-10) |
| Age | −0.0083## (0.0053) | −0.0064*** (0.0017) | −0.0030*** (0.0005) | −0.0082## (0.0053) | −0.0063*** (0.0017) | −0.0031*** (0.0005) | −0.0098* (0.0053) | −0.0065*** (0.0017) | −0.0036*** (0.0005) |
| public debt_t1 | −0.0151 (0.0157) | −0.0076 (0.0131) | −0.0042 (0.0036) | −0.0180 (0.0157) | −0.0093 (0.0132) | −0.0044 (0.0035) | −0.0168 (0.0155) | −0.0111 (0.0131) | −0.0091*** (0.0034) |
| rating_2 | −0.0116# (0.0096) | −0.0126* (0.0076) | −0.0070*** (0.0022) | ||||||
| rating_3 | −0.0044 (0.0067) | 0.0004 (0.0048) | 0.0007 (0.0013) | ||||||
| rating_1 | 0.0558*** (0.0240) | 0.0294* (0.0169) | 0.0142*** (0.0043) | ||||||
| _cons | 0.0917* (0.0535) | 0.0563** (0.0271) | 0.0243*** (0.0071) | 0.0931* (0.0550) | 0.0503* (0.0286) | 0.0220*** (0.0074) | 0.0861* (0.0529) | 0.0478* (0.0270) | 0.0245*** (0.0069) |
| No of observations of groups | 761 | 761 | 752 | 761 | 761 | 752 | 761 | 761 | 752 |
| 208 | 208 | 199 | 208 | 208 | 199 | 208 | 208 | 199 | |
| R2 within group | 0.1573 | 0.1279 | 0.1556 | 0.1266 | 0.1634 | 0.1329 | |||
| R2 between groups | 0.0302 | 0.1222 | 0.0293 | 0.1165 | 0.0298 | 0.1156 | |||
| R2 overall | 0.0778 | 0.1248 | 0.0765 | 0.1210 | 0.0777 | 0.1237 | |||
| corr(u_i, Xb) | −0.3248 | −0.3204 | −0.3511 | ||||||
| F(16,537) | 6.26*** | 6.19*** | 6.56*** | ||||||
| F-test that all u_i=0 | |||||||||
| F(207, 537) | 1.81*** | 1.82*** | 1.85*** | ||||||
| Wald test chi-squared | 106.02*** | 631.16*** | 102.91*** | 629.24*** | 106.37*** | 808.66*** | |||
| Sargan–Hansen test of over-identifying restrictions | |||||||||
| chi-squared | 43.653*** | 43.550*** | 45.921*** | ||||||
| Hausman test of over-identifying restrictions | |||||||||
| chi-squared (13) | 41.77*** | 41.59*** | 43.76*** | ||||||
| Breusch–Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects | |||||||||
| chibar2(01) | 28.32*** | 28.89*** | 29.69*** | ||||||
| Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data | |||||||||
| F(1,187) | −208*** | −208*** | −208*** | ||||||
| Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity in fixed-effect regression model | |||||||||
| chi-squared (211) | 8.755*** | 8.610*** | 8.505*** | ||||||
Corporate bonds used by companies listed on WSE and outflows in the period 1999–2014
| Numbers of companies | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonds issue | 24 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 35 | 37 | 46 | 59 | 84 | 91 | 97 | 75 |
| Bank loans without issue bonds | 23 | 38 | 46 | 37 | 42 | 40 | 43 | 57 | 49 | 63 | 69 | 72 | 79 | 88 | 77 | 76 |
| Liquidity support by bond issue | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 25 | 39 | 36 | 40 | 38 |
| Financial investments | 20 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 41 |
| Tangible investments | 22 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 30 | 33 | 39 | 48 | 59 | 68 | 63 | 54 |
Logistics analysis of the choice between corporate bonds and bank loans
| Variable | Model 1 y1L | Model 2 y2L | Model 3 y3L | Model 4 ysub | Model 5 y4L Bank loans | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Substitutability | Complementariness | Bond issue | Weak substitutability | |||||||
| Coeff | dy/dx | Coeff | dy/dx | Coeff | dy/dx | Coeff | dy/dx | Coeff | dy/dx | |
| acc_policy | −9.068*** (3.57) | −1.889* (1.11) | 2.799** (1.35) | 0.606* (0.33) | ||||||
| disc_income | 10.812** (5.05) | 2.252* (1.29) | −4.351** (1.85) | −0.657** (0.28) | −4.448*** (1.77) | −1.106*** (0.44) | ||||
| disc_balance | −7.960* (4.59) | −1.658# (1.20) | 4.452** (1.83) | 0.673** (0.27) | 5.596*** (1.85) | 1.392*** (0.46) | ||||
| Risk | −67.295** (31.71) | −14.018# (10.15) | −6.727 (5.39) | −1.456 (1.22) | −13.154* (7.90) | −1.987* (1.21) | −10.947## (7.15) | −2.722## (1.77) | ||
| Bankruptcy | −0.927** (0.48) | −0.193*** (0.07) | −0.027** (0.01) | −0.004** (0.002) | −0.104** (0.05) | −0.026** (0.01) | 0.042** (0.02) | 0.009** (0.004) | ||
| dum bankrupt | 9.047*** (3.00) | 0.366 (0.30) | −5.381# (3.94) | −0.387** (0.16) | ||||||
| Debt | 0.542** (0.23) | 0.113# (0.09) | 1.367*** (0.22) | 0.296*** (0.08) | 0.574*** (0.09) | 0.087*** (0.01) | 0.473*** (0.10) | 0.117*** (0.02) | 0.538*** (0.06) | 0.111*** (0.02) |
| Growth | 0.068 (0.36) | 0.014 (0.07) | 0.093 (0.12) | 0.020 (0.03) | 0.011 (0.06) | 0.002 (0.01) | 0.022 (0.06) | 0.005 (0.01) | 0.092 (0.18) | 0.019 (0.04) |
| Tangibility | −2.819* (1.74) | −0.587# (0.45) | −0.080 (0.84) | −0.017 (0.18) | −0.969# (0.77) | −0.146# (0.11) | −0.872 (0.76) | −0.217 (0.19) | 0.805 (0.95) | 0.166 (0.19) |
| oper_risk | 4.76e−06*** (1.86e−06) | 9.91e−07* (0.00) | −2.03e-06*** (5.69e-07) | −4.20e-07*** (0.00) | ||||||
| subs_inv | −0.343*** (0.13) | −0.071* (0.04) | ||||||||
| Maintain liquidity | −0.091*** (0.04) | −0.019## (0.01) | 0.070** (0.04) | 0.015* (0.01) | 0.035** (0.016) | 0.005** (0.002) | ||||
| Rating | 1.960** (0.83) | 0.408## (0.27) | −0.575** (0.28) | −0.124* (0.07) | −0.242 (0.24) | −0.060 (0.06) | −0.249 (0.23) | −0.051 (0.05) | ||
| Size | −1.26*** (0.23) | −0.273*** (0.08) | −0.218** (0.10) | −0.045** (0.02) | ||||||
| fin_pressures | 0.003* (0.002) | 0.0004* (0.0002) | 0.004# (0.003) | 0.001# (0.001) | ||||||
| riskdisclosure | 1.039 (1.01) | 0.216 (0.23) | −0.682* (0.37) | −0.103* (0.05) | −0.498# (0.37) | −0.124# (0.09) | 1.072*** (0.33) | 0.221*** (0.07) | ||
| public_debt_t1 | 1.185*** (0.35) | 0.259*** (0.09) | 1.348*** (0.32) | 0.224*** (0.06) | 1.578*** (0.31) | 0.375*** (0.07) | ||||
| Auditor | −1.591* (0.97) | −0.328# (0.25) | −1.400*** (0.39) | −0.203*** (0.05) | −1.041*** (0.39) | −0.252*** (0.09) | ||||
| freefloat | −4.413** (2.23) | −0.919# (0.65) | −1.167# (0.84) | −0.176# (0.13) | ||||||
| tax_shield | 0.558# (0.40) | 0.116## (0.07) | 0.020 (0.02) | 0.003 (0.002) | ||||||
| Age | −0.062## (0.04) | −0.009## (0.01) | −0.063* (0.04) | −0.016* (0.01) | ||||||
| rollover_debt | 2.023** (0.93) | 0.421* (0.22) | ||||||||
| Liquidity | −0.019 (0.02) | −0.003 (0.002) | ||||||||
| real_estate | −0.336* (0.18) | −0.051* (0.03) | ||||||||
| tax_saving | −0.233# (0.16) | −0.050 (0.05) | ||||||||
| long_debt | −0.760# (0.58) | −0.164 (0.13) | ||||||||
| _cons | −4.804## (3.36) | 1.021 (1.62) | −4.372*** (1.34) | −4.728*** (1.52) | −1.236 (1.12) | |||||
| Pr(y) (predict) | 0.704 | 0.317 | 0.185 | 0.463 | 0.708 | |||||
| Correct classif | 88.50% | 82.46% | 81.49% | 76.21% | 88.08% | |||||
| LR | 87.3*** | 139.6*** | 188.96*** | 112.1*** | 205.9*** | |||||
| Adjusted count R2: | 0.667 | 0.478 | 0.519 | 0.226 | 0.634 | |||||
| Pearson | chi-squared (94) | 67.0 | chi-squared (255) | 255.3 | chi-squared (317) | 261.6 | chi-squared (255) | 247.5 | chi-squared (335) | 335.5 |
| Prob. | 0.984 | 0.482 | 0.990 | 0.620 | 0.483 | |||||
| LR chi-squared (2) | 87.57*** | 139.58*** | 188.96*** | 112.42*** | 207.95*** | |||||
| Log likelihood | −29.03 | −101.25 | −128.79 | −129.93 | −113.09 | |||||
| Pseudo R2 | 0.601 | 0.408 | 0.423 | 0.302 | 0.479 | |||||
| _hat | 1.046*** (0.24) | 0.999*** (0.15) | 1.001*** (0.12) | 1.012*** (0.13) | 1.035*** (0.13) | |||||
| hatsq | 0.034 (0.05) | −0.001 (0.06) | 0.002 (0.05) | 0.039 (0.07) | −0.077 (0.05) | |||||
| cons | −0.063 (0.37) | 0.001 (0.20) | −0.003 (0.18) | −0.056 (0.18) | 0.234 (0.26) | |||||
Results of panel analysis of determinants of bonds issues in the period 1999–2014
| Variable | RE random effects | Prais––Winsten regression |
|---|---|---|
| y2p | −0.0276* (0.0150) | −0.0378 (0.0316) |
| Size | −0.0077*** (0.0022) | −0.0070*** (0.0026) |
| Leverage | 0.0250*** (0.0088) | 0.0308*** (0.0088) |
| market_to_book | 8.00e-07## (5.51e-07) | 7.48e-07 *** (2.10e-07) |
| dum_zscore | 0.0148** (0.0067) | 0.0216** (0.0101) |
| Debt | 0.0085*** (0.0007) | 0.0093*** (0.0004) |
| Tangibility | −0.0582*** (0.0159) | −0.0574*** (0.0151) |
| Liquidity | 0.0001 (0.0001) | 0.0001*** (0.00003) |
| tang_investment | 0.0016# (0.0012) | 0.0017# (0.0013) |
| subs_inv | 0.0029*** (0.0007) | 0.0024*** (0.0009) |
| Maintainliquidity | 0.0001** (0.00004) | 0.0001# (0.0001) |
| tax_shield | 0.0012*** (0.0004) | |
| Age | −0.0019** (0.0008) | −0.0020* (0.0012) |
| public_debt_t1 | 0.0319*** (0.0062) | 0.0219# (0.0157) |
| Growth | −3.91e-06*** (1.38e-06) | |
| _cons | 0.0641*** (0.0204) | 0.0534*** (0.0146) |
| Number of observations | 2154 | |
| Number of groups | 223 | |
| Obs. per group: minimum | 3 | |
| Average | 9.6592 | |
| Maximum | 16 | |
| R2 | 0.1250 | |
| Wald chi-squared (14) | 297.01*** | 4712.70*** |
| Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity in fixed-effect regression model | chi-squared (223) = 7.5e+05*** | |
| Wooldridge test for autocorrelation | F(1, 222) = 6.437** | |
| Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects | chibar2(01) = 499.87*** |