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Fuzzy Supervised Multi-Period Time Series Forecasting Cover

Fuzzy Supervised Multi-Period Time Series Forecasting

By: Galina Ilieva  
Open Access
|Jun 2019

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to propose a new method for fuzzy forecasting of time series with supervised learning and k-order fuzzy relationships. In the training phase based on k previous historical periods, a multidimensional matrix of fuzzy dependencies is constructed. During the test stage, the fitted fuzzy model is run for validating the observations and each output value is predicted by using a fuzzy input vector of k previous intervals. The proposed algorithm is verified by a benchmark dataset for fuzzy time series forecasting. The results obtained are similar or better than those of other fuzzy time series prediction methods. Comparative analysis shows the high potential of the new algorithm as an alternative to fuzzy prediction and reveals some opportunities for its further improvement.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cait-2019-0016 | Journal eISSN: 1314-4081 | Journal ISSN: 1311-9702
Language: English
Page range: 74 - 86
Submitted on: Dec 10, 2018
Accepted on: Apr 18, 2019
Published on: Jun 18, 2019
Published by: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information and Communication Technologies
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2019 Galina Ilieva, published by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information and Communication Technologies
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.