The Evolution of Education, Birth Rate, and Drug Dependence and their Implications for the National Security

The educational dimension represents a fundamental pillar in strengthening human capital and preventing the accumulation of social vulnerabilities. In Romania, limited access to quality education and high educational dropout rates seriously affect national security by amplifying social exclusion and economic vulnerabilities. Recent data from Eurostat (2024) indicate an increase in the school dropout rate from 15.6% in 2020 to 16.5% in 2022, a trend worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in rural areas where access to education was limited. Currently, this gap increases the risk of social exclusion and juvenile delinquency, undermining both social stability and the national economy.

Approximately 28% of students in rural areas experienced significant difficulties in accessing online education, compared to only 15% of students in urban areas (Ministry of Education, 2022), highlighting a structural inequality. Reduced access to functional education limits individual development prospects, fuels social tensions and marginalization, and increases the risk of involvement in antisocial behavior. At the same time, the lack of educational opportunities restricts the professional and social integration of young people. An educated population is generally less prone to social exclusion (Blanden, 2022), contributing to a safe and cohesive community, an essential aspect of maintaining national security from a social perspective.

Moreover, existing data (UNICEF, 2023) emphasize the challenges of restoring the education system after the COVID-19 period, pointing to persistently low school attendance rates in certain disadvantaged rural areas.

The graph (Figure no. 1) illustrates the school dropout rate in Romania compared to the European Union average over the period 2020–2024. A significant and persistent gap can be observed, with Romania displaying a considerably higher dropout rate, even though a slight decline was recorded between 2023 and 2024.

Figure no. 1:

The school dropout rate in Romania compared to the EU average during the period 2020–2024

(Source: Data-based conceptualization by the author; Eurostat, 2024)

In 2020, the school dropout rate in Romania was 15.6%, meaning that 15.6% of Romanian youth aged between 18 and 24 left the education system without completing compulsory schooling. By 2022, this rate had increased to 16.5%, and in 2024 it slightly decreased to 16.0%. The increase in dropout rates during the pandemic years reflects the impact of limited access to education, particularly in rural areas, where educational resources and distance learning infrastructure were insufficient (Ministry of Education, 2022).

Over the same period, the European Union average steadily declined from 9.9% in 2020 to 9.3% in 2024 (Eurostat, 2024), reflecting the effectiveness of educational measures adopted by other member states to prevent school dropout and ensure equitable access to education, including during the pandemic (UNICEF, 2023). The significant gap compared to the EU average highlights the structural deficiencies in access to education in Romania, particularly in impoverished areas.

A high dropout rate implies a large number of young people lacking qualifications, who face considerable challenges in entering the labor market and are more vulnerable to social marginalization. These dynamics have direct consequences for national security, as a youth population prone to antisocial vulnerabilities can generate economic and social instability at the community level. In a competitive European context, the lack of education limits both economic development potential and the capacity to sustain social cohesion in Romania.

In the medium term, Romania should implement policies that ensure equitable access to education by expanding school infrastructure in rural and disadvantaged areas and by allocating appropriate educational resources. Such measures could include training programs for teachers and incentives to encourage them to remain in their positions, at least in the short term, to mitigate the effects of current structural inequalities. Nevertheless, support should be directed toward students from rural areas and low-income families, who have been most severely affected by this infrastructural deficit.

Another set of policies could focus on social scholarships and academic support programs aimed at reducing school dropout rates. Encouraging students to return to school through subsidies and financial incentives, as well as providing free transportation for those living in remote areas, could significantly improve the current situation. Implementing such resilience measures could gradually reduce the rate of social exclusion by 2035, contributing to a better-qualified workforce and enhanced social stability. In the absence of sustained government intervention, educational disparities risk amplifying existing economic and social vulnerabilities, leading to a weaker economic foundation and a workforce insufficiently prepared to meet the future demands of European society.

Romania’s demographic decline, reflected in the decreasing birth-death ratio, directly impacts the structure of society and its capacity to sustain long-term development. This decline can be correlated with economic changes, the emigration of young people, and the challenges families face in balancing career and personal life, in the absence of effective governmental measures to address these issues.

At the same time, the mortality rate has shown a slight increase, rising from 12.7 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in 2020 to 13.1 in 2024 (NIS, 2024). The imbalance between births and deaths is thus leading to a continued decrease in the active population and to an accelerated aging of the population – a phenomenon that places increasing pressure on Romania’s economy and social security systems.

The evolution of birth and death rates in Romania between 2020 and 2024 (Table no. 1) shows a steady decline in birth rates, from 9.2 to 8.2 births per 1,000 inhabitants, and an increase in death rates, from 12.7 to 13.1 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants (NIS, 2024). The data reflects a significant demographic imbalance, with an increasingly aging population and a shrinking base of active young people.

This trend negatively impacts national security and social cohesion. An aging population requires more resources for pensions and healthcare services, while declining birth rates reduce the active tax base, limiting the state’s capacity to support investments in defense and social security. Without effective measures to reverse this decline, the resources available for economic development and security will continue to shrink, and demographic vulnerabilities will deepen.

From a social perspective, these phenomena also affect community structures, particularly in rural areas, where declining birth rates and external migration lead to depopulation. The absence of young people in these regions undermines local development and limits support for the elderly, who are increasingly isolated and face insufficient resources. Under these conditions, those who remain in the country bear a growing economic burden, having to support older generations, an imbalance that leads to intergenerational tensions and weakens social solidarity at the national level.

To counteract the negative effects of demographic decline, the implementation of natality support measures and programs aimed at encouraging the return of young emigrants becomes essential. In this sense, Romania could adopt financial incentive policies for families with at least two children and support initiatives for the professional reintegration of those wishing to return to the country. In the long term, such policies could contribute not only to balancing the demographic structure but also to revitalizing local communities by providing social support and reducing the isolation of elderly individuals in depopulated areas, an outcome that would also benefit the healthcare system by reducing treatments directly linked to excessive loneliness.

In the absence of adequate measures, declining birth rates will diminish Romania’s ability to maintain a skilled workforce and to attract foreign investment, given that a young and active population is a key factor in the country’s economic stability. Through the implementation of effective support policies, Romania could achieve a more favorable demographic balance by 2035, one that sustains both economic development and social cohesion, thereby reducing vulnerabilities that could impact national security in the long term.

The use of illicit substances among young people is a relevant indicator of the fragility of the social environment and the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms for prevention and intervention. The upward trend of this phenomenon in Romania raises multiple concerns, ranging from the deterioration of public health to increased pressure on the educational system. Recent statistics (National Anti-Drug Agency, 2024) show a significant rise in drug use among youth, starting as early as lower secondary school. This phenomenon affects the psychological development and social integration of adolescents, exposing them to the risk of school dropout and physical and mental health problems. Substance dependence impairs their ability to integrate socially and professionally, leading to the emergence of new generations prone to antisocial behavior and deepening existing social vulnerabilities.

As a result, young people become more susceptible to involvement in delinquent acts, which places additional strain on public order and social assistance systems. In this context, drug dependence affects not only individual health but also public safety, underscoring the need for investment in prevention and rehabilitation.

The social impact of drug use is particularly severe within families and communities, where young people struggling with addiction are often marginalized and stigmatized. Social isolation and the lack of adequate support contribute to relapse, intensifying the crisis at the community level. Furthermore, the difficulty in effectively addressing these vulnerabilities also stems from the challenge of allocating the budget to tackle the problem, since resources are divided across prevention, treatment, and reintegration efforts.

The data presented (Table no. 2) indicate a constant increase in the number of reported drug use cases among minors, by approximately 69% (National Anti-Drug Agency, 2024) over the analyzed period. This trend highlights a severe social issue, with major implications for public health and the social assistance system. To counter these effects, the allocation of additional resources for prevention and psychological support becomes crucial, in order to limit the negative impact associated with the initial stages of youth social exclusion.

Over the same time frame, the number of minors participating in rehabilitation programs rose from 2,048 to 3,462 (National Anti-Drug Agency, 2024), suggesting increased awareness and an attempt to intervene proportionally. However, the rate of increase in program participation remains insufficient compared to the growth in reported cases. This discrepancy highlights an urgent need to expand treatment programs and to develop social and medical support infrastructure, adapted to current societal realities.

Drug use among young people has a significant impact on communities and families, affecting not only their health and personal development, but also generating marginalization and stigmatization. The social isolation of affected youth further complicates their reintegration into the community, increasing the social and economic burden on families, who often bear both the financial and emotional costs of this crisis. The marginalization of individuals with addiction contributes to the weakening of social cohesion, which may also lead to a lack of trust in state institutions.

From the perspective of national security, drug dependence among minors represents a risk to the economic system and to social development. A generation affected by addiction is less capable of actively contributing to the labor force, thereby reducing the country's economic potential and intensifying existing vulnerabilities. The upward trend of this phenomenon is also associated with rising juvenile delinquency and related criminal activities.

The impact on national security is further amplified by the erosion of social and economic capital, as a growing segment of the population becomes unable to contribute meaningfully to national development. Moreover, a marginalized and stigmatized youth population may be more vulnerable to extremist influences (whether religious, political, or ideological) leading to greater exposure to national security risks.

In the medium term, Romania should adopt rigorous preventive measures, including awareness campaigns in schools and communities, and expand access to rehabilitation programs and psychological support. If these measures are effectively implemented, drug use could be significantly reduced by 2035, thus easing pressure on health and public safety resources and supporting the emergence of a healthy and active young generation.