Abstract
Introduction: Most of the forecast methods for hospital beds estimate a total number of beds per region, based on demographic and utilization indicators, without allocation on specialty wards.
Objectives: Develop a forecast methodology per specialty in a county, according to the population needs.
Materials and methods: Literature review, demographic data and indicators of hospital morbidity analysis; hospitalization rates adjustment for medical migration; model the allocation of new cases according to the previous hospitalization models.
Results: the excess of hospitalization between similar counties varies between -34.71 to 96.50%; adjustment of the hospital beds for patient migration leads to increase in the number of beds in 5 of 6 counties; the allocation of new cases, based on the previous model of hospitalization, triggers the reallocation between specialties.
Conclusions: demographic indicators, hospital activity, family doctor records can be used successfully to design the number of beds at county level, according to the needs of the population.