Have a personal or library account? Click to login
A Comparative Analysis of Automated Machine Learning Libraries for Electricity Price Forecasting Cover

A Comparative Analysis of Automated Machine Learning Libraries for Electricity Price Forecasting

Open Access
|Dec 2024

References

  1. B. Donlon, “Quick guide to the integrated single electricity market,” Tech. Rep., 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.eirgridgroup.com/uuid/1458bec2-f1e3-493c-92de-8dd2228bca1c/EirGrid-Group-I-SEM-Quick-Guide.pdf
  2. SEM-O, “Market operator performance.” [Online]. Available: http://www.sem-o.com/publications/operator-performance/
  3. K. Kavanagh, M. Barrett, and M. Conlon, “Short-term electricity load forecasting for the integrated single electricity market (I-SEM),” in 2017 52nd International Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC), Heraklion, Greece, Aug. 2017, pp. 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1109/UPEC.2017.8231994
  4. S. Beltrán, A. Castro, I. Irizar, G. Naveran, and I. Yeregui, “Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price,” Applied Energy, vol. 306, Part A, Jan. 2022, Art. no. 118049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118049
  5. C. McHugh, S. Coleman, and D. Kerr, “Hourly electricity price forecasting with NARMAX,” Machine Learning with Applications, vol. 9, Sep. 2022, Art. no. 100383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mlwa.2022.100383
  6. C. Lynch, C. O’Leary, P. G. K. Sundareshan, and Y. Akin, “Experimental analysis of GBM to expand the time horizon of Irish electricity price forecasts,” Energies, vol. 14, no. 22, Nov. 2021, Art. no. 7587. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227587
  7. C. O’Leary, C. Lynch, R. Bain, G. Smith, and D. Grimes, “A comparison of deep learning vs traditional machine learning for electricity price forecasting,” in 2021 4th International Conference on Information and Computer Technologies (ICICT), HI, USA, Mar. 2021, pp. 6–12. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICICT52872.2021.00009
  8. D. Grimes, G. Ifrim, B. O’Sullivan, and H. Simonis, “Analyzing the impact of electricity price forecasting on energy cost-aware scheduling,” Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 276– 291, Dec. 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.suscom.2014.08.009
  9. J. Lago, F. De Ridder, and B. De Schutter, “Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms,” Applied Energy, vol. 221, pp. 386–405, Jul. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.069
  10. A. R. Gollou and N. Ghadimi, “A new feature selection and hybrid forecast engine for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets,” Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, vol. 32, no. 6, pp. 4031–4045, May 2017. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-152073
  11. L. Wang, Z. Zhang, and J. Chen, “Short-term electricity price forecasting with stacked denoising autoencoders,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 2673–2681, Jul. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2628873
  12. S. K. Aggarwal, L. M. Saini, and A. Kumar, “Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets: A review and evaluation,” International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 13–22, Jan. 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2008.09.003
  13. U. Ugurlu, I. Oksuz, and O. Tas, “Electricity price forecasting using recurrent neural networks,” Energies, vol. 11, no. 5, May 2018, Art. no. 1255. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11051255
  14. F. Arci, J. Reilly, P. Li, K. Curran, and A. Belatreche, “Forecasting short-term wholesale prices on the Irish single electricity market,” Int. Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE), vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 4060–4078, Dec. 2018. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v8i6.pp4060-4078
  15. F. Feijoo, W. Silva, and T. K. Das, “A computationally efficient electricity price forecasting model for real time energy markets,” Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 113, pp. 27–35, Apr. 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2016.01.043
  16. G. Osório, J. Matias, and J. Catalão, “Electricity prices forecasting by a hybrid evolutionary-adaptive methodology,” Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 80, pp. 363–373, Apr. 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.01.063
  17. P.-H. Kuo and C.-J. Huang, “An electricity price forecasting model by hybrid structured deep neural networks,” Sustainability, vol. 10, no. 4, Apr. 2018, Art. no. 1280. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041280
  18. C. O’Leary, “Capsule networks for electricity price forecasting,” Master’s thesis, Munster Technological University, 2020.
  19. A. Thessen, “Adoption of machine learning techniques in ecology and Earth science,” One Ecosystem, vol. 1, Jun. 2016, Art. no. e8621. https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.1.e8621
  20. C. O’Leary, F. G. Toosi, and C. Lynch, “A review of AutoML software tools for time series forecasting and anomaly detection,” in Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence (ICAART), Lisbon, Portugal, Oct. 2023, pp. 421–433. https://doi.org/10.5220/0011683000003393
  21. X. He, K. Zhao, and X. Chu, “AutoML: A survey of the state-of-the-art,” Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 212, Jan. 2021, Art. no. 106622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2020.106622
  22. I. Y. Javeri, M. Toutiaee, I. B. Arpinar, J. A. Miller, and T. W. Miller, “Improving neural networks for time-series forecasting using data augmentation and AutoML,” in 2021 IEEE Seventh International Conference on Big Data Computing Service and Applications (BigDataService), Oxford, United Kingdom, Aug. 2021, pp. 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1109/BigDataService52369.2021.00006
  23. “Stack overflow developer survey 2023.” [Online]. Available: https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2023/?utmsource=social-share&utmmedium=social&utmcampaign=dev-survey-2023
  24. C. Lynch, J. Kehoe, R. Bain, F. Zhang, J. Flynn, C. O’Leary, G. Smith, R. Linger, K. Fitzgibbon, and F. Feijoo, “Application of a SVM-based model for day-ahead electricity price prediction for the single electricity market in Ireland,” in 39th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF), 2019.
  25. P. Li, F. Arci, J. Reilly, K. Curran, A. Belatreche, and Y. Shynkevich, “Predicting short-term wholesale prices on the Irish single electricity market with artificial neural networks,” in 2017 28th Irish Signals and Systems Conference (ISSC), Killarney, Ireland, Jun. 2017, pp. 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISSC.2017.7983623
  26. N. Erickson, J. Mueller, A. Shirkov, H. Zhang, P. Larroy, M. Li, and A. Smola, “AutoGluon-Tabular: robust and accurate AutoML for structured data,” arXiv:2003.06505, Mar. 2020. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2003.06505
  27. H. Jin, Q. Song, and X. Hu, “Auto-Keras: An efficient neural architecture search system,” in Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, ser. KDD’19, New York, NY, USA, Jul. 2019, pp. 1946–1956. https://doi.org/10.1145/3292500.3330648
  28. C. Catlin, “AutoTS,” Aug. 2022, original-date: 201911-26T14:13:16Z. [Online]. Available: https://github.com/winedarksea/AutoTS
  29. “tinkoff-ai/etna,” Aug. 2022, original-date: 2021-0827T14:02:56Z. [Online]. Available: https://github.com/tinkoff-ai/etna
  30. N. O. Nikitin, P. Vychuzhanin, M. Sarafanov, I. S. Polonskaia, I. Revin, I. V. Barabanova, G. Maximov, A. V. Kalyuzhnaya, and A. Boukhanovsky, “Automated evolutionary approach for the design of composite machine learning pipelines,” Future Generation Computer Systems, vol. 127, pp. 109–125, Feb. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2021.08.022
  31. C. Wang, Q. Wu, M. Weimer, and E. E. Zhu, “FLAML: A fast and lightweight AutoML library,” Apr. 2021. [Online]. Available: https://proceedings.mlsys.org/paper_files/paper/2021/file/1ccc3bfa05cb37b917068778f3c4523a-Paper.pdf
  32. M. Ali, “PyCaret: An open source, low-code machine learning library in Python,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pypi.org/project/pycaret/2.2.3/
  33. P. Molino, Y. Dudin, and S. S. Miryala, “Ludwig: a type-based declarative deep learning toolbox,” arXiv:1909.07930, Sep. 2019. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1909.07930
  34. M. Feurer, K. Eggensperger, S. Falkner, M. Lindauer, and F. Hutter, “Auto-Sklearn 2.0: Hands-free AutoML via MetaLearning,” arXiv:2007.04074, Sep. 2021. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2007.04074
  35. A. Vakhrushev, A. Ryzhkov, M. Savchenko, D. Simakov, R. Damdinov, and A. Tuzhilin, “LightAutoML: AutoML solution for a large financial services ecosystem,” arXiv:2109.01528, Apr. 2022. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2109.01528
  36. “AxeldeRomblay / MLBox.” [Online]. Available: https://github.com/AxeldeRomblay/MLBox
  37. “H2O.ai,” 2022. [Online]. Available: https://github.com/h2oai/h2o-3
  38. “alteryx/evalml,” Aug. 2022, original-date: 2019-0717T21:36:30Z. [Online]. Available: https://github.com/alteryx/evalml
  39. S. Makridakis, C. Fry, F. Petropoulos, and E. Spiliotis, “The future of forecasting competitions: Design attributes and principles,” arXiv:2102.04879, May 2021. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2102.04879
  40. R. Godahewa, C. Bergmeir, G. I. Webb, R. J. Hyndman, and P. Montero-Manso, “Monash time series forecasting archive,” in 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=I01l7rc0jcb
  41. A. Bauer, M. Zufle, S. Eismann, J. Grohmann, N. Herbst, and S. Kounev, “Libra: A benchmark for time series forecasting methods,” in Proceedings of the ACM/SPEC International Conference on Performance Engineering, ser. ICPE’21, New York, NY, USA, Apr. 2021, pp. 189–200. https://doi.org/10.1145/3427921.3450241
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/acss-2024-0020 | Journal eISSN: 2255-8691 | Journal ISSN: 2255-8683
Language: English
Page range: 43 - 52
Submitted on: Apr 24, 2024
|
Accepted on: Oct 11, 2024
|
Published on: Dec 6, 2024
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: Volume open

© 2024 Christian O’Leary, Conor Lynch, Farshad Ghassemi Toosi, published by Riga Technical University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.