Table 1
Variables, Measurement Units, and Data Sources for the ARDL Model
| Variable Name | Category | Abbreviation | Unit of Measurement | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product Growth | Dependent | GDPGrowth | Annual % | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
| Oil Price Volatility Index | Independent | OVX | Index Value | Investing.com |
| Renewable Energy Consumption | RES | % of Total Final Energy Consumption | World Development Indicators (WDI) | |
| Official Exchange Rate | Control | EXR | Local Currency per USD (Period Average) | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
| Lending Interest Rate | IR | % | World Development Indicators (WDI) | |
| Manufacturing Value Added | IPI | % of GDP | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
Table 2
ADF Stationarity Tests for Variables Used in the ARDL Model
| Variable | ADF Test at Level | ADF Test at First Difference | ADF Test at Second Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (GDPGrowth) | -3.089 (p = 0.0274) | - | - | Level (I(0)) |
| Oil Price Volatility (OVX) | -2.680 (p = 0.0775) | -3.089 (p = 0.0274) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
| Renewable Energy Share (RES) | -1.401 (p = 0.5816) | -4.453 (p = 0.0002) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
| Exchange Rate (EXR) | 2.371 (p = 0.9990) | -0.788 (p = 0.8226) | -5.579 (p = 0.0000) | Second Difference (I(2)) |
| Interest Rate (IR) | -1.502 (p = 0.5326) | -2.101 (p = 0.2439) | -3.983 (p = 0.0015) | Second Difference (I(2)) |
| Industrial Production Index (IPI) | -1.731 (p = 0.4153) | -2.850 (p = 0.0515) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
Table 3
Diagnostic Tests for ARDL Model Validity and Assumptions
| Test Name | Results | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Test | Mean VIF = 3.04 (No multicollinearity issue) | Passed |
| Breusch-Pagan Heteroskedasticity Test | p = 0.6708 (No heteroscedasticity detected) | Passed |
| Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test | p = 0.87437 (Residuals follow normal distribution) | Passed |
| Durbin-Watson Test for Autocorrelation | Durbin-Watson = 2.157 (No severe autocorrelation) | Passed |
| Breusch-Godfrey LM Test for Serial Correlation | p = 0.1108 (No serial correlation detected) | Passed |
| Ramsey RESET Test for Model Specification | p = 0.6088 (No omitted variable bias) | Passed |
Table 4
ARDL Estimation Results: Short-Run and Long-Run Effects on GDP Growth
| Variable | Coefficient | Std.Error | t-Statistic | P-Value | 95% Conf. Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDPGrowth (L1) | -0.587549 | 0.0710509 | -8.27 | 0.001 | (-0.7848179, - 0.39028) |
| D_OVX | 0.0123863 | 0.009257 | 1.34 | 0.252 | (-0.0133154, 0.0380879) |
| D_OVX (L1) | -0.0499921 | 0.0096537 | -5.18 | 0.007 | (-0.0767952, - 0.0231891) |
| D_RES | 0.6494255 | 0.1061399 | 6.12 | 0.004 | (0.3547338, 0.9441172) |
| D2_EXR | 0.1132494 | 0.0150039 | 7.55 | 0.002 | (0.0715918, 0.1549069) |
| D2_IR | 0.0309056 | 0.1039435 | 0.3 | 0.781 | (-0.2576879, 0.319499) |
| D_IPI | -1.47479 | 0.2516851 | -5.86 | 0.004 | (-2.173579, - 0.7759998) |
| D_IPI (L1) | -3.675186 | 0.1960487 | -18.75 | 0 | (-4.219504, - 3.130867) |
| Constant | 5.890309 | 0.2686237 | 21.93 | 0 | (5.14449, 6.636128) |
1 Note: This table presents the estimated coefficients from the ARDL model assessing GDP growth as the outcome variable. GDP growth (annual percentage change) serves as the dependent variable. The primary explanatory variables analyzed in the model include oil price volatility (OVX) and renewable energy share (RES), while macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate (EXR), interest rate (IR), and industrial production index (IPI) have been incorporated as control variables to account for broader economic influences.