ARDL Estimation Results: Short-Run and Long-Run Effects on GDP Growth
| Variable | Coefficient | Std.Error | t-Statistic | P-Value | 95% Conf. Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDPGrowth (L1) | -0.587549 | 0.0710509 | -8.27 | 0.001 | (-0.7848179, - 0.39028) |
| D_OVX | 0.0123863 | 0.009257 | 1.34 | 0.252 | (-0.0133154, 0.0380879) |
| D_OVX (L1) | -0.0499921 | 0.0096537 | -5.18 | 0.007 | (-0.0767952, - 0.0231891) |
| D_RES | 0.6494255 | 0.1061399 | 6.12 | 0.004 | (0.3547338, 0.9441172) |
| D2_EXR | 0.1132494 | 0.0150039 | 7.55 | 0.002 | (0.0715918, 0.1549069) |
| D2_IR | 0.0309056 | 0.1039435 | 0.3 | 0.781 | (-0.2576879, 0.319499) |
| D_IPI | -1.47479 | 0.2516851 | -5.86 | 0.004 | (-2.173579, - 0.7759998) |
| D_IPI (L1) | -3.675186 | 0.1960487 | -18.75 | 0 | (-4.219504, - 3.130867) |
| Constant | 5.890309 | 0.2686237 | 21.93 | 0 | (5.14449, 6.636128) |
ADF Stationarity Tests for Variables Used in the ARDL Model
| Variable | ADF Test at Level | ADF Test at First Difference | ADF Test at Second Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (GDPGrowth) | -3.089 (p = 0.0274) | - | - | Level (I(0)) |
| Oil Price Volatility (OVX) | -2.680 (p = 0.0775) | -3.089 (p = 0.0274) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
| Renewable Energy Share (RES) | -1.401 (p = 0.5816) | -4.453 (p = 0.0002) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
| Exchange Rate (EXR) | 2.371 (p = 0.9990) | -0.788 (p = 0.8226) | -5.579 (p = 0.0000) | Second Difference (I(2)) |
| Interest Rate (IR) | -1.502 (p = 0.5326) | -2.101 (p = 0.2439) | -3.983 (p = 0.0015) | Second Difference (I(2)) |
| Industrial Production Index (IPI) | -1.731 (p = 0.4153) | -2.850 (p = 0.0515) | - | First Difference (I(1)) |
Variables, Measurement Units, and Data Sources for the ARDL Model
| Variable Name | Category | Abbreviation | Unit of Measurement | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product Growth | Dependent | GDPGrowth | Annual % | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
| Oil Price Volatility Index | Independent | OVX | Index Value | Investing.com |
| Renewable Energy Consumption | RES | % of Total Final Energy Consumption | World Development Indicators (WDI) | |
| Official Exchange Rate | Control | EXR | Local Currency per USD (Period Average) | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
| Lending Interest Rate | IR | % | World Development Indicators (WDI) | |
| Manufacturing Value Added | IPI | % of GDP | World Development Indicators (WDI) |
Diagnostic Tests for ARDL Model Validity and Assumptions
| Test Name | Results | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Test | Mean VIF = 3.04 | Passed |
| Breusch-Pagan Heteroskedasticity Test | p = 0.6708 | Passed |
| Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test | p = 0.87437 | Passed |
| Durbin-Watson Test for Autocorrelation | Durbin-Watson = 2.157 (No severe autocorrelation) | Passed |
| Breusch-Godfrey LM Test for Serial Correlation | p = 0.1108 | Passed |
| Ramsey RESET Test for Model Specification | p = 0.6088 | Passed |