Figure 1.
FORECAST RESULTS
| Raw data | Model calculation data | Raw data | Model calculation data |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.0000 | 20.0000 | 10.0000 | 10.5184 |
| 14.0000 | 15.8176 | 11.0000 | 10.4467 |
| 18.0000 | 16.9127 | 6.0000 | 6.1321 |
| 9.0000 | 10.6324 | 5.0000 | 6.5528 |
| Predict three numbers | 3.4219 | 2.4896 | 1.2732 |
HISTORICAL DATA OF SPARE PARTS CONSUMPTION OF A CERTAIN EQUIPMENT
| Serial number | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Number of spare parts | 20 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
MODEL AVERAGE ERROR UNDER DIFFERENT STATE DIVISION
| Number of states | Model mean error | Number of states | Model mean error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 15.9536% | 6 | Undesirable |
| 3 | 13.7272% | 7 | Undesirable |
| 4 | 11.5191% | 8 | Undesirable |
| 5 | Undesirable | — | — |
FORECAST ACCURACY OBTAINED BY USING DIFFERENT MODELS
| GM(1,1)model | Number of states | Classic model | Improve the model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 15.9536% | 15.9536% | |
| 3 | 13.7272% | 13.7272% | |
| 16.8686% | 4 | Undesirable | 11.5191% |
| 5 | Undesirable | Undesirable | |
| 6 | Undesirable | Undesirable |