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Demand Forecast of Weapon Equipment Spare Parts Based on Improved Gray-Markov Model Cover

Demand Forecast of Weapon Equipment Spare Parts Based on Improved Gray-Markov Model

International Journal of Advanced Network, Monitoring and Controls
Volume 5 (2020): Issue 3 (January 2020)
By: ,  ,   and    
Open Access
|Oct 2020
Figures & tables

Figures & Tables

TABLE I

HISTORICAL DATA OF SPARE PARTS CONSUMPTION OF A CERTAIN EQUIPMENT

Serial number12345678
Number of spare parts2014189101165
Figure 1.

Fitting diagram of simulated value and actual value

TABLE II

FORECAST RESULTS

Raw dataModel calculation dataRaw dataModel calculation data
20.000020.000010.000010.5184
14.000015.817611.000010.4467
18.000016.91276.00006.1321
9.000010.63245.00006.5528
Predict three numbers3.42192.48961.2732
TABLE III

MODEL AVERAGE ERROR UNDER DIFFERENT STATE DIVISION

Number of statesModel mean errorNumber of statesModel mean error
215.9536%6Undesirable
313.7272%7Undesirable
411.5191%8Undesirable
5Undesirable——
TABLE IV

FORECAST ACCURACY OBTAINED BY USING DIFFERENT MODELS

GM(1,1)modelNumber of statesClassic modelImprove the model
 215.9536%15.9536%
 313.7272%13.7272%
16.8686%4Undesirable11.5191%
 5UndesirableUndesirable
 6UndesirableUndesirable
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/ijanmc-2020-027 | Journal eISSN: 2470-8038
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Language: English
Page range: 47 - 56
Published on: Oct 14, 2020
Published by: Xi’an Technological University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
Grey Theory,
Markov Model,
Spare Parts Forecast
Related subjects:
Computer sciences,
Computer sciences, other

© 2020 Ou Li, Bailin Liu, Chenhao Li, Dan Gao, published by Xi’an Technological University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 5 (2020): Issue 3 (January 2020)
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